Marketplace Morning Report – "Aid for Farmers, but not from Tariffs"

Date: November 18, 2025
Host: Sabri Benishore (in for David Brancaccio)
Main Guests: Nancy Marshall Genser, Steven Vaden (USDA), Richard Fordyce (USDA), Drew Mattis (MetLife Investment Management), Mahir Mysore (McKinsey & Company)

Episode Overview

This episode centers on fresh developments in U.S. federal aid for farmers—specifically, a new round of disaster aid from the USDA (not tariff relief)—and delves into market jitters and the complicated intersection of tariffs and artificial intelligence within global supply chains. The show explores the outlook for different sectors of the economy, with commentary from government officials and industry experts, and wraps with a preview of a related podcast about the links between climate change and food security.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. New USDA Disaster Aid for Farmers

[01:03] – [02:48]

• Second Stage of Disaster Aid:
  • The USDA is launching the second phase of a disaster relief program for farmers, with $16 billion available to support those affected by natural disasters.
  • Unlike the first phase, which focused on major commodity crops, this round extends to specialty crops (fruits, vegetables, tree nuts), targeting growers in states like California and Arizona.
    • “So that’s going to bring in more... a lot of your specialty crop producers in places like California, Arizona.” — Nancy Marshall Genser [01:43]
• Eligibility and Coverage:
  • Farmers are eligible for up to $900,000 in aid per calendar year if at least 75% of their income comes from farming.
  • The relief encompasses a wide array of disasters: wildfires, hurricanes, floods, derechos, excessive heat, tornadoes, winter storms, freeze, smoke exposure, excessive moisture, and some droughts.
    • “The aid covers wildfires, hurricanes, floods...excessive moisture, and in some cases, drought.” — Nancy Marshall Genser [02:06]
  • Reimbursement also covers destroyed products, such as spoiled milk due to blocked delivery routes.
• No New Tariff Aid Yet:
  • Despite questions on tariff-related farmer hardship, USDA Deputy Secretary Steven Vaden made clear: “The Agriculture Department only woke back up from the government shutdown last week, and now they’re busy crunching the numbers.” — Steven Vaden [02:20]

2. Market Overview and Sentiment

[02:48] – [04:11]

• Tough Day for the Markets:
  • All major equity indices are down, along with Bitcoin and gold, reflecting uncertainty ahead of upcoming U.S. economic data releases.
    • “You can’t have an economy functioning well when only a few companies are doing well.” — Drew Mattis [03:04]
  • This market caution is driven by a concentration of gains in a handful of tech stocks; nervousness is heightened ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report.
    • “When so much of the equity market performance has been tied up in a single sector and a few names within that sector, the market’s more vulnerable to changes in expectations and perceptions.” — Nancy Marshall Genser summarizing Drew Mattis [03:34]

3. Intersection of Tariffs, AI, and Supply Chains

[06:28] – [09:34]

• How AI Is (and Isn’t) Cushioning Tariffs Impact:
  • Many companies are using AI to manage the added complexity and workload of increased tariffs, by digging into granular import data and automating workflows.
    • “When that detail isn’t readily available, AI can be helpful in imputing what that data likely could be…So in that sense, yes, it has come to the rescue.” — Mahir Mysore [07:07]
  • However, the current use of AI for resilience in supply chain and tariff management is still shallow—adoption of advanced tools (e.g., early warning systems for disruptions) is not widespread.
    • “There is still limited usage compared to the potential of what you can do with these powerful tools…There is a lot of potential to use AI, use machine learning to improve companies’ ability to detect, respond and recover.” — Mahir Mysore [08:03]
  • Human expertise remains critical, particularly because trust in AI-driven decisions takes time to build.
    • “It will be a very long time before a trust in the outcomes of that AI agent is actually established…having the right human in the loop…there’s an incredibly high demand for folks with those skills and capabilities.” — Mahir Mysore [08:45]

4. Preview: The Climate Crisis as a Food Crisis

[09:53] – [10:23]

• Food Security and Climate Change:
  • Amy Scott provides a teaser for the podcast “How We Survive,” highlighting how climate change threatens staple food crops and the urgency for scientific innovation to safeguard the future of food.
    • “Imagine a future where chocolate and coffee are rare and expensive, where cheap nutritional staples like corn and wheat are threatened. Sounds unpleasant, doesn’t it?” — Amy Scott [09:53]
  • The preview includes firsthand accounts of crop losses due to drought and extended dry spells.
    • “I’ve seen yields drop because of drought and believe me, boy, have I seen them drop.” — Sabri Benishore [10:12]
    • “We have had dry spells that have lasted years.” — Steven Vaden [10:20]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “The aid covers wildfires, hurricanes, floods, derechos, excessive heat, tornadoes, winter storms, freeze, smoke exposure, excessive moisture, and in some cases, drought.”
  — Nancy Marshall Genser [02:06]

• “You can’t have an economy functioning well when only a few companies are doing well.”
  — Drew Mattis [03:04]

• On AI’s limits:
  “There is still limited usage compared to the potential of what you can do with these powerful tools…There is a lot of potential…”
  — Mahir Mysore [08:03]

• On climate and food security:
  “Imagine a future where chocolate and coffee are rare and expensive … we could be heading there if we don’t recognize that the climate crisis is also a food crisis.”
  — Amy Scott [09:53]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• USDA Disaster Aid for Farmers – [01:03] to [02:48]
• Market Sentiment & Indices Overview – [02:48] to [04:11]
• Tariff & AI Supply Chain Discussion (with McKinsey’s Mahir Mysore) – [06:28] to [09:34]
• Climate & Food Crisis Preview (How We Survive) – [09:53] to [10:23]

Summary Tone

The episode maintains a pragmatic, information-packed tone, focused on economic news and actionable analysis, with expert insights and clear explanations. The style is brisk, concise, and driven by first-hand reporting and interviews.

Listeners get a swift briefing on pivotal business and economic issues: urgent disaster relief for farmers (but not tariff aid), the risks of concentrated markets, the practical but limited role of AI in trade friction, and hints of how climate change is fast reshaping food security.