An attempt to blunt rising oil prices

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report: “An attempt to blunt rising oil prices”

Date: March 19, 2026
Host: Sabri Benishore (in for David Brancaccio)
Duration: ~9 minutes

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Episode Overview

This episode covers responses to surging oil and gas prices triggered by escalating conflict in the Middle East, specifically attacks and reprisals involving Iran, Israel, and US allies. It examines the U.S. government's 60-day suspension of the Jones Act to alleviate pressure at the gas pump, explores the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach amid economic uncertainty, and addresses the postponement of a high-profile U.S.–China summit and its broader economic context.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Middle East Conflict Drives Oil Price Surge

• Summary: After Israel's attack on Iran's South Pars gas field and Iran’s retaliation (strikes on infrastructure in Qatar and Saudi Arabia), oil prices soared to $115 a barrel, sending U.S. gas prices up to $3.88—a nearly $1 increase due to the conflict.
  • Sabri Benishore: "President Trump said the US Quote knew nothing about the Israeli attack and threatened the Iranian oil field with more attacks if Iran continued its retaliation." [00:54]
• The White House’s response: A temporary suspension of the Jones Act to ease domestic shipping constraints and gas prices.
  • “The White House is waiving that requirement for 60 days.” [00:54]

2. Explaining the Jones Act Waiver

• Jones Act: Requires ships moving cargo between U.S. ports to be American-built and operated.
  • Nova Safo: “We now have less than 100 ships legally qualified ... and just 55 tankers. The shortage has raised shipping costs.” [01:58]
• Effect of Waiver:
  • Allows foreign ships to transport goods between U.S. ports, increasing supply.
  • Colin Grabow (Cato Institute): “Waiving the Jones act will certainly help. It'll dramatically expand the universe of ships available...” [02:22]
  • Expected result: Slight gasoline price relief—particularly in regions reliant on shipping (California, Florida, Northeast). However, analysts expect only a marginal reduction.
    • “...the decline will be just a few cents per gallon at most.” [02:31]
• Broader problem: Ongoing conflict at the Strait of Hormuz keeps pressure high.
  • Courtney Federico (Center for American Progress): “Until the Trump administration is able to find a diplomatic solution... I struggle to see how they can significantly decrease energy and gasoline prices...” [02:56]

3. Federal Reserve Holds Steady Amid Uncertainty

• The Middle East war complicates monetary policy; the Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged.
  • Nancy Marshall Genser: “Chair Jerome Powell used the phrase 'wait and see' four times during his press conference yesterday.” [03:36]
  • No clear direction until future developments; Fed releases projections showing just one rate cut penciled in for the year.
  • “A graph known as the dot plot showed the Fed penciling in one interest rate cut this year.” [04:03]
  • Inflation expectations ticked up amid volatility.

4. US–China Relations on Hold

• President Trump delays China summit due to the Middle East conflict.
  • Sabri Benishore: “President Trump is delaying his trip to China...citing war in the Middle East.” [06:17]
• Scott Kennedy (Center for Strategic and International Studies) offers perspective:
  • The real reason: both the Middle East crisis and lack of negotiation progress.
    • “...the administration is really not prepared...pushing the meeting back gives them time...to cobble together a bigger deal.” [06:39]
  • The scope of US–China negotiations has diminished over decades:
    • Kennedy: “25 years ago...China [entered] the WTO...Ten years ago...a bilateral investment treaty. This year...specific products, agricultural goods, aircraft, maybe LNG.” [07:14]
    • The U.S. is now focused on “small potatoes,” with little leverage after tariff setbacks.
  • The crisis further weakens U.S. leverage: China is less dependent on U.S. goodwill and can weather short-term energy price spikes thanks to strategic reserves.
  • Kennedy: “...Trump would be going into Beijing weaker than he anticipated, really to China’s advantage.” [08:33]

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Notable Quotes

• Sabri Benishore (Host):
  • “President Trump said the US Quote knew nothing about the Israeli attack and threatened the Iranian oil field with more attacks if Iran continued its retaliation.” [00:54]
• Colin Grabow (Cato Institute, on Jones Act suspension):
  • “Waiving the Jones act will certainly help. It'll dramatically expand the universe of ships available that can be used to transport goods within the United States.” [02:22]
• Courtney Federico (Center for American Progress):
  • “Until the Trump administration is able to find a diplomatic solution to this conflict, I struggle to see how they can significantly decrease energy and gasoline prices for Americans.” [02:56]
• Nancy Marshall Genser (Marketplace):
  • “Chair Jerome Powell used the phrase 'wait and see' four times during his press conference yesterday.” [03:36]
  • “A graph known as the dot plot showed the Fed penciling in one interest rate cut this year.” [04:03]
• Scott Kennedy (CSIS):
  • “...pushing the meeting back gives them time to actually try to cobble together a bigger deal.” [06:39]
  • “...we’re not dealing with the big issues in the relationship. What they’re really negotiating about is relatively small potatoes.” [07:14]
  • “...Trump would be going into Beijing weaker than he anticipated, really to China’s advantage.” [08:33]

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Important Timestamps

• 00:54 — Host sets stage: Middle East escalation, surge in oil/gas prices, U.S. Jones Act waiver.
• 01:58 — The Jones Act’s background, impact, and predicted effects on gas prices.
• 02:56 — Analyst commentary on limited effect of government intervention and importance of diplomacy.
• 03:36–04:03 — The Fed’s “wait and see” response, economic projections, and inflation forecast.
• 06:17–09:12 — Delay of U.S.–China summit, expert analysis of shrinking agenda and reduced U.S. leverage globally.

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Memorable Moments

• The episode effectively explains how a 1920 maritime law unexpectedly affects modern U.S. energy prices—connecting geopolitics and domestic economics.
• Scott Kennedy’s insight frames great-power relations as ever-narrowing and reflects on how U.S. responses to multiple crises can undercut its bargaining power:
  • “We’re negotiating really on China’s side of the court. We’re not touching any Chinese red lines about industrial policy or rebalancing its economy or anything like that.” [07:54]

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Conclusion

The episode succinctly ties together how international conflict in the Middle East creates ripple effects across energy markets, U.S. domestic policy (the Jones Act), monetary policy (the Fed’s response), and the global order (U.S.–China relations). Despite swift moves like the Jones Act pause, real relief for American consumers remains minimal—pending diplomatic breakthroughs. Meanwhile, the U.S. navigates a complex, high-stakes environment where each action has consequences far beyond the price at the pump.

Transcript

[Marketplace Announcer]

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[Sabri Benishore]

how to blunt the Rising price of gas from Marketplace I'm Sabri Benishore in for David Brancaccio. Israel attacked what's called the South Pars gas field off the coast of Iran. It's the biggest source of domestic energy for Iran, and Iran retaliated by striking major gas infrastructure in Qatar and Saudi Arabia. President Trump said the US Quote knew nothing about the Israeli attack and threatened the Iranian oil field with more attacks if Iran continued its retaliation. Meanwhile, the price of oil surged to $115 a barrel. The price of gas here in the US also continued to rise, averages now $3.88, up almost a dollar from before the war. The Trump administration is trying to dull the impact on gas by suspending something known as the Jones Act. It says any ship that Transports cargo between US ports has to be made in America and be US operated. The White House is waiving that requirement for 60 days. Marketplaces Nova Sappho has more.

[Nova Safo]

The Jones act was written to help maintain American shipbuilding and operating expertise, but over the years, US shipbuilding has shrunk anyway. We now have less than 100 ships legally qualified to go from one American port to another, and just 55 tankers. The shortage has raised shipping costs. Colin Grabow is a trade policy researcher at the Cato Institute, so waiving the

[Marketplace Sponsor/Advertiser]

Jones act will certainly help. It'll dramatically expand the universe of ships available that can be used to transport goods within the United States.

[Nova Safo]

More ships, lower costs Grebo expects gasoline prices to decline in places like California, Florida and the Northeast because those areas rely on ships instead of pipelines. But analysts say the decline will be just a few cents per gallon at most.

[Marketplace Announcer]

We know that the Strait of Hormuz is a critical choke point.

[Nova Safo]

Courtney Federico tracks energy policy at the center for American Progress.

[Marketplace Announcer]

So until the Trump administration is able to find a diplomatic solution to this conflict, I struggle to see how they can significantly decrease energy and gasoline prices for Americans.

[Nova Safo]

In the meantime, oil prices have blown through earlier predictions of how high they might go, underlining just how unpredictable the current outlook has become. I'm Nova Safo for Marketplace.

[Sabri Benishore]

The war in the Middle east has made the Federal Reserve's job harder. Yesterday, it decided to leave interest rates unchanged. Where it goes from here is unclear. Marketplace's Nancy Marshall Genser has that Fed

[Nancy Marshall Genser]

Chair Jerome Powell used the phrase wait and see four times during his press conference yesterday. The Federal Reserve's next meeting on interest rates is about six weeks away. Powell says what happens in the Middle east will be a big factor next month, but he stressed that he doesn't know how that will affect Fed officials thinking. Powell says they did run through a few Mideast scenarios, but just remember that

[Sabri Benishore]

we don't know and we shouldn't assume it's going to be one thing or another we're going to see.

[Nancy Marshall Genser]

Fed officials did release quarterly economic projections yesterday as scheduled. In spite of all the uncertainty. A graph known as the dot plot showed the Fed penciling in one interest rate cut this year. Fed officials inflation expectations ticked up a bit. I'm Nancy Marshall Genser for Marketplace.

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[Sabri Benishore]

President Trump is delaying his trip to China that was scheduled for the end of this month, citing war in the Middle East. So where does that leave us? China relations? Scott Kennedy is at the center for Strategic and International Studies and is here to talk about it.

[Marketplace Sponsor/Advertiser]

Hi Scott.

[Scott Kennedy]

Good morning.

[Sabri Benishore]

This summit between the US And China is getting called off allegedly because of the war in Iran. Do you think that is in fact the real reason?

[Scott Kennedy]

That's probably actually the primary reason. I think the other reason is that the administration is really not prepared to for a summit meeting with the Chinese. The negotiations have barely begun and they haven't reached agreement about very much. And so I think pushing the meeting back gives them time to actually try to cobble together a bigger deal.

[Sabri Benishore]

What is at the top of the list of economic issues between the US And China right now that you know is, is not going to get dealt

[Scott Kennedy]

with from a long range perspective? Looking back over a quarter century, what we see is an incredibly shrinking range of negotiations. 25 years ago we were negotiating with China about its entry to the WTO and all the reforms it needed to make to do so. Ten years ago we were talking about a bilateral investment treaty. This year we're talking about specific products, agricultural goods, aircraft, maybe lng. And so we're not dealing with the big issues in the relationship. What they're really negotiating about is relatively small potatoes.

[Sabri Benishore]

Why are we negotiating about such a small range of things?

[Scott Kennedy]

Now the US Is quite unhappy with the state of the relationship, but it overplayed its hand in the last year. It imposed these really steep tariffs and China called the U.S. s bluff and it won. The U.S. backed down. And so we're left talking about very specific kinds of things which could give the appearance of a win for the U.S. but we're negotiating really on China's side of the court. We're not touching any Chinese red lines about industrial policy or rebalancing its economy or anything like that.

[Sabri Benishore]

How does the war in the Middle east complicate things?

[Scott Kennedy]

Well, it further reduces the U.S. s leverage with China. You could say, yes, in the short term, this raises energy prices for everyone, including the Chinese, who depend as much, if not more than anyone from oil from the Persian Gulf. But China has StockPiles and the US is in this battle with no clear exit strategy and not a lot of support from its allies. You add on top of that the decision by the Supreme Court regarding the tariffs several weeks ago and Trump would be going into Beijing weaker than he anticipated, really to China's advantage.

[Sabri Benishore]

Scott Kennedy at the center for Strategic and International Studies, thank you so much.

[Scott Kennedy]

Good chatting with you.

[Sabri Benishore]

In New York, I'm Sabree Benishore with the Marketplace Morning Report. From APM American Public Media. When we get big news overnight and the economy turns on a dime, Marketplace Morning Report is there to get you up to speed, speed as you start your day. And listener support keeps this fast, smart global reporting available to everyone not stuck behind a paywall. We cannot do it without you. So if you rely on Marketplace Morning Report to make sense of the day ahead, invest in our independent and accessible journalism. Donate [e-mail] or click the link in the show notes.