An eye on labor force participation

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report (March 9, 2026)

Episode Title: An eye on labor force participation
Host: Sabri Benishore (in for David Brancaccio), with reporting by Carla Javier
Duration: ~8 Minutes
Main Theme:
A fast-paced briefing on overnight business and economic news, focusing on surging oil prices due to Middle East tensions, a concerning drop in US labor force participation, and a deep dive into modern existential risks—including nuclear, biological, and AI threats—and how societies might address them.

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Key Topics & Highlights

1. Oil Price Surge Amid Middle East Tensions

[00:46-01:56]

• News Recap:
  “The price of oil surged, I mean surged, over the weekend... after an Israeli strike on a fuel storage facility [in Tehran].” – Sabri Benishore [00:46]
• Figures:
  • Brent crude hit nearly $120/barrel, settling at $104 (still up 44% since before the conflict).
• Broader Impact:
  • G7 nations consider releasing strategic reserves to counter rising prices.

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2. Falling US Labor Force Participation

[01:56-03:35]
Reporter: Carla Javier
Expert Voices: Corey Staley (Indeed), Brian Bethune (Boston College), Nicole Bicheux (ZipRecruiter)
Key Stats:

• February saw a loss of 92,000 US jobs.
• Labor force participation rate dropped to 62%, lowest since Dec 2021.

Why the Drop?

• Corey Staley (Indeed):
  • “Are they feeling like there are the jobs for them to come into?…Are they feeling like it's worth it to have a job?” [02:09]
  • Older workers are retiring/aging out: “They're choosing to maybe retire and leave and not participate.” [02:27]
• Brian Bethune (Boston College):
  • Workers turning to gig work may fall outside participation metrics.
• Nicole Bicheux (ZipRecruiter):
  • Immigration policy affecting “the available population who is willing and able to work.” [03:03]
• Future Concerns:
  • Bicheux: Even with fewer participants, “there will still be a need for people who want to work, especially those with skills in areas like healthcare and construction.” [03:04]

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3. Existential Threats: Nuclear, Biological, and AI Risks

[04:31-07:39]
Interview: David Brancaccio with Prof. Steve Luby (Stanford Existential Risks Initiative)

• The Nature of Existential Risks

  • Brancaccio: “At first blush I want to think about these existential risks as very low probability…But that's not really the right description here. I mean the probability may not be low enough for some of these things.” [04:55]
  • Luby: “If you start thinking about this along a decades long timeline, all of a sudden these probabilities aren't very small because they do add up. We've got a lot of things that we are one shock away from catastrophe.” [05:08]

• Biological Threats

  • Luby: “It's not just large, well funded states that can do this kind of research because the biological tools have become increasingly powerful, lower cost and increasingly democratized…” [05:42]
    – The risk isn’t limited to traditional actors; tools for engineered biology could be widely misused.

• Artificial Intelligence Dangers

  • Brancaccio: “Think we need [international cooperation] for AI?” [06:04]
  • Luby: “The real leadership in AI is coming from private firms ... their incentives ... are not [to] prioritize safety.” [06:21]
  • Luby: “You don't need to have great developments in AI for it to have politically disastrous consequences...” [07:00]
  • The overlap of AI with biology increases the risk of destructive weaponry.

• Memorable Quote:

  • “We are making destructive weaponry more and more potent and more and more available.” – Steve Luby [07:22]

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• “Are they feeling like it's worth it to have a job?” – Corey Staley, Indeed [02:09]
• “They're choosing to maybe retire and leave and not participate.” – Corey Staley, Indeed [02:27]
• “The available population who is willing and able to work.” – Nicole Bicheux, ZipRecruiter [03:03]
• “We've got a lot of things that we are one shock away from catastrophe.” – Steve Luby, Stanford [05:20]
• “...the biological tools have become increasingly powerful, lower cost and increasingly democratized...” – Steve Luby [05:43]
• “The real leadership in AI is coming from private firms ... they are not incentivized to prioritize safety.” – Steve Luby [06:21]

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Segment Timestamps

| Time | Topic/Segment | |----------|------------------------------------------------| | 00:46 | Oil prices spike after Mideast conflict | | 01:56 | Labor force participation drop explained | | 03:35 | Sponsors break | | 04:31 | Existential risks: Intro & Stanford Initiative | | 04:55 | Deep dive: How likely are catastrophic risks? | | 05:30 | Biological catastrophe risks | | 06:04 | AI risks and international cooperation | | 07:22 | AI & Bio overlap: increasing threat | | 07:32 | Closing remarks on existential threats |

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Summary Takeaway

The episode delivers a critical snapshot of economic anxieties—from immediate energy price shocks and a worrying shift in the US job market to deeper, slow-burn threats like AI, biological, and nuclear risks—which are increasingly complex as private sector innovation outpaces regulation. Expert voices urge vigilance, adaptation, and broad collaboration to face both economic shifts and global existential perils.

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Transcript

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[Sabri Benishore]

price of oil surged, I mean surged over the weekend. From Marketplace, I'm Sabri Benishore in for David Brancaccio. You might have seen video of streets on fire in Tehran after lit fuel trickled down roads and into sewers after an Israeli strike on a fuel storage facility there. Not long after those reports surfaced, the price of Brent crude oil late yesterday surged to almost $120 a barrel. It has now come down some to $104 a barrel this morning. That is still up 44% from before the war in the Middle east started. G7 countries are now considering releasing strategic reserves to help contain the oil price surge. Back here in the U.S. economists are still digesting last Friday's jobs report, which showed a loss of 92,000 jobs in February. The labor force participation rate, that's the percentage of working age people who are either working or looking for work, fell to 62%. That's the lowest since December of 2021. And it means some people are giving up on even looking for a job. Marketplace's Carla Javier has more.

[Carla Javier]

The labor force participation rate is the percentage of people over 16 who are either working or looking for work. Corey Staley at Indeed says the figure gives us a clue into how potential workers are doing.

[Corey Staley]

Are they feeling like there are the jobs for them to come into? You know, are they feeling like it's worth it to have a job?

[Carla Javier]

The jobs report doesn't explain why so many people aren't working or even looking for a job right now. Staley says one possible factor is that

[Corey Staley]

older workers are leaving the labor force. They're aging out of the labor force. They're choosing to maybe retire and leave and not participate.

[Carla Javier]

Or maybe workers are taking on more gig work, says Brian Bethune at Boston College.

[Bank of America Announcer]

But if you're in and out of

[Sabri Benishore]

the labor force and you're not actively

[Carla Javier]

looking, wouldn't necessarily show up in the participation rate. Immigration policy could also have something to do with it, says Nicole Bicheux at ZipRecruiter. Those kind of dynamics are really challenging, kind of the available population who is

[Steve Luby]

willing and able to work.

[Carla Javier]

Bacheaux says it's important to keep an eye on labor participation because, she says, there will still be a need for people who want to work, especially those with skills in areas like healthcare and construction. Carla I'm Carla Javier for Marketplace.

[David Brancaccio]

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[Michelle Akers]

you don't change the game without asking big questions like what would you like the power to do? My answers motivated me to help lead the first US Women's national team and bring home two FIFA Women's World cup

[Bank of America Announcer]

trophies, bank of America champions, US Women's soccer legend Michelle Akers, and everyone who dares to ask what would you like the power to do? Bank of America proud to be the Official bank of U.S. soccer bank of America NA Member, FDIC Existential threats to

[Sabri Benishore]

the US and world come in a lot of flavors these days, if you haven't noticed. Biological climate, nuclear, even catastrophic software threats. There are research groups around the world studying them. And today and for the next three Mondays, my colleague David Brancaccio is checking in with a handful of them. One is Stanford's Existential Risks Initiative. Steve Luby is a professor, physician and faculty co director there. He spoke with David I mean, at

[David Brancaccio]

first blush I want to think about these existential risks as very low probability. But of course high potential impact. But that's not really the right description here. I mean the probability may not be low enough for some of these things.

[Steve Luby]

If you think about that, we are on hair trigger launch on warning of nuclear weapons. If you start thinking about this along a deck decades long timeline, all of a sudden these probabilities aren't very small because they do add up. We've got a lot of things that we are one shock away from catastrophe

[David Brancaccio]

just to rest for a moment on one of these grim topics. A biological disaster that's human engineered. I mean that's often bioweapons but it could be just biomedical research gone wrong.

[Steve Luby]

One of the big problems here is it's not just large, well funded states that can do this kind of research because the biological tools have become increasingly powerful, lower cost and increasingly democratized. It means that there are more and more folks out there who are capable of doing serious mischief.

[David Brancaccio]

And I assume a newer one, artificial intelligence. You know, back in the Eisenhower administration, that administration got behind the International Atomic Energy Agency, you know, international cooperation on arms control. Think we need something like that for AI?

[Steve Luby]

I think we definitely need to be talking. But I do think a difference with AI is that the real leadership in AI is coming from private firms. It's not coming from governments. I mean, nuclear was very much a state sponsored technology. The challenge here is that the incentives for those folks who are developing these AI models is to grab market share so they want to work quickly and they are not incentivized to prioritize safety.

[David Brancaccio]

You worry about significant hazards from AI. This isn't science fiction stuff.

[Steve Luby]

No, absolutely. One of the things we see is you don't need to have great developments in AI for it to have politically disastrous consequences. And similarly, if we think about what you can do with AI technology when you combine it with these biological tools in the wrong hands, we see that with the current and the rapidly developing tools, we are making destructive weaponry more and more potent and more and more available.

[David Brancaccio]

Stanford professor Steve Luby is also a physician. He's co director of the Stanford Existential Risks Initiative. Thank you very much.

[Steve Luby]

Thank you, David.

[Sabri Benishore]

Marketplace's David Brancaccio there and he's going to be bringing us a lot more stories on how we prepare for the future. In New York, I'm Sabri Benishore with the Marketplace morning report from APM American Public Media.

[David Brancaccio]

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