Can China spur consumer spending?

Summary

Podcast Summary: Marketplace Morning Report

Episode: Can China spur consumer spending?
Date: November 24, 2025
Host: David Brancaccio

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Overview

This episode explores recent trends in consumer spending both in the United States and China, highlighting economic outlooks, the challenges faced by consumers, and the broader implications for global markets. Special attention is given to China's efforts to stimulate consumer demand amid economic slowdown, high youth unemployment, and persistent cultural habits of saving over spending.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

U.S. Economic Outlook (00:59 – 02:44)

• Business Economist Sentiment:
  • A survey from the National Association for Business Economics shows a slight increase in optimism among U.S. corporate economists.
  • Expectations for both growth and inflation have ticked up, suggesting fewer Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in the upcoming year.
• Holiday Shopping Trends:
  • Consumers are shopping more at discount retailers like TJ Maxx and Walmart, signaling increased price sensitivity.
  • Julia Coronado (01:37):

    “Consumers are stretched, prices have risen and they're looking for deals. … They're going to try to stretch that dollar this holiday season.”

• Deloitte Survey Insights (02:50 – 03:42):
  • Shoppers plan to spend 4% less than last year between Black Friday and Cyber Monday, mainly due to high prices and financial concerns.
  • Low-income consumers plan to cut spending by 12%; even the wealthiest shoppers (> $200k/year) expect to spend 18% less.
  • 38% say they'll only buy items “at least half off.”
  • Almost two-thirds will use credit cards or “buy now, pay later” financing.

China’s Struggle to Boost Consumer Spending (05:03 – 08:15)

• Economic Backdrop (05:03 – 05:30):
  • China’s economy has slowed this year, facing falling exports, a trade war with the U.S., and record-high youth unemployment.
  • Unlike the U.S., where consumer spending drives growth, China’s domestic consumption remains a smaller percentage of economic output.
• Youth Unemployment and Work Climate (05:30 – 06:16):
  • Many young Chinese are unemployed or underemployed. Available jobs are more often low-paying or outside their field of study.
  • Young worker, Beijing (06:02):

    “Some of my friends are unemployed, still living at home and looking for a job. … The economy is a bit off right now. I hope it gets better so we can all have a better life.”

• Cultural Savings Mentality (06:16 – 06:47):
  • Unlike in the U.S., Chinese consumers tend to save more, especially in uncertain times.
  • Helena Loefgren, Swedish Institute of International Affairs (06:47):

    “People save more than they consume and you need the consumption to make up a bigger share of the economy than it's doing today in China.”

• Tech Sector Transition & Labor Market (06:56 – 07:29):
  • China’s push toward high-tech and automation is creating fewer job opportunities, intensifying youth unemployment.
  • George Magnus, Oxford University (07:14):

    “That's not being helped really by the push to become a champion in robotics and in AI, because tech isn't really that labor intensive anyway.”

• Changing Consumer Habits, Deflation, and Government Policy (07:29 – 08:15):
  • Social media vloggers promote bargains and minimalist consumption among youths, who remain wary amid economic uncertainty.
  • Persistent price cutting fuels deflation, dragging down growth further.
  • Government may need to boost the social safety net or raise graduate wages to inspire optimism and spending.

Quick Global Update: Weight Loss Drugs and Pharma Stocks (08:15 – 08:46)

• Results from a study found Ozempic, a GLP1 drug, did not slow Alzheimer’s progression, causing a sharp dip (down 9%) in stock for Novo Nordisk.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• David Brancaccio (02:38):

  "A little bit more optimism, I suppose, is better than a little less optimism."

• Julia Coronado on consumer behavior (02:23):

  "It tells us that consumers are stretched, prices have risen and they're looking for deals."

• Chinese Youth Interviewee (06:02):

  "Some of my friends are unemployed, still living at home and looking for a job. … I hope it gets better so we can all have a better life."

• Helena Loefgren (06:47):

  “People save more than they consume and you need the consumption to make up a bigger share of the economy than it's doing today in China.”

• George Magnus (07:14):

  “That’s not being helped really by the push to become a champion in robotics and in AI, because tech isn’t really that labor intensive anyway.”

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:59 – 02:44: U.S. economic sentiment and holiday shopping preview
• 02:50 – 03:42: Detailed findings from the Deloitte holiday spending survey
• 05:03 – 08:15: China’s economic slowdown, youth unemployment, and cultural factors affecting consumption
• 08:15 – 08:46: New findings on weight loss drugs and their market impact

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Tone and Language

The episode maintains a conversational, accessible, and slightly wry tone—particularly in David Brancaccio's transitions (“What are you giving Gross domestic product for the holidays?”) and in the candid interview snippets from economists and international correspondents.

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Conclusion

This quick but informative episode offers an at-a-glance update on cautious consumer behavior in the U.S. and China, with expert insights into the underlying economic, social, and cultural trends. The challenges for both economies are stark: Americans want bargains and use credit liberally, while Chinese households continue to hold back on spending amid economic uncertainty and changing job prospects for the young. Both trajectories have major implications for global markets as the year draws to a close.

Transcript

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[David Brancaccio]

What are you giving Gross domestic product for the holidays? I'm David Brancaccio in Los Angeles. A fresh survey from the national association for Business Economics finds sentiment among corporate economists moving slightly toward the optimism range in the last month. No big changes are expected from this group in the coming year, but a slight increase in economic growth and a slight downtick in inflation is predicted. Economist Julia Coronado is founder of Macro Policy Perspectives. Hello.

[Julia Coronado]

Good morning.

[David Brancaccio]

Beck used to run the NABE here, but they're looking a little bit more optimistic from a month earlier.

[Julia Coronado]

So expectations for growth for next year were boosted a little bit, but also expectations for inflation were boosted a little bit, and therefore economists expect less Fed easing in terms of rate cuts next year as well. So all of those things kind of go together.

[David Brancaccio]

All right. Well, I mean, a little bit more optimism, I suppose, is better than a little less optimism. Now, the Wall Street Journal's been reporting, all of us are reporting on retail sales during what is now the holiday shopping season. And there's a piece today that says, yeah, shoppers are shopping, they're gonna be spending more. And at cheaper places like TJ Maxx and Walmart. What does that tell you?

[Julia Coronado]

Well, it tells us that consumers are stretched, prices have risen and they're looking for deals. And we hear this a lot, that consumers are very price sensitive and they're going to try to stretch that dollar this holiday season.

[David Brancaccio]

Economist Julia Coronado is also a professor at the University of Texas, Austin. Thank you so much.

[Julia Coronado]

My pleasure.

[David Brancaccio]

And zooming in on this season where the culture keeps bugging us to shop. There are fresh numbers there.

[Nancy Marshall Genser]

Deloitte says the 1200 shoppers they surveyed plan to spend 4% less than last year between Black Friday and Cyber Monday, citing high prices and financial constraints. Low income consumers plan to spend 12% less this year. Even shoppers making more than $200,000 a year say they'll cut their spending by 18%. 38% of the shoppers in the Deloitte survey say they'll only things that are at least half off. Deloitte says almost two thirds of those surveyed say they plan to use credit cards or buy now, pay later. I'm Nancy Marshall Genser for Marketplace.

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[David Brancaccio]

In China's economy slowed this year amid falling exports, the trade war with the US and record high unemployment for younger people. The US Economy is off, boosted by consumer spending to keep things chugging along, something hard to escape with the big shopping orgy set for late this week. Right? Well, in China, consumer spending is a much smaller part of economic output, even as the government there tries to stimulate more spending among younger people. Here's the BBC's Stephen McDonnell.

[Stephen McDonnell]

It's lunchtime in Beijing and workers at this shopping and office district just east of the Foreign Ministry have poured into the street and are in search of some food along Chawai Nanjin. It's an area with lots of small service sector businesses as well as retail, wholesale clothing and some big chain outlets. A young man who works in the food and beverage industry says there are low level jobs available but that it's hard to find decent work related to your specialty area.

[Chinese Youth Interviewee]

Some of my friends are unemployed, still living at home and looking for a job. They had all kinds of majors at university, from financial services to product sales. The economy is a bit off right now. I hope it gets better so we can all have a better life.

[Stephen McDonnell]

The United States has a problem with consumers binge buying on their credit cards, using money they don't have. In China, it's the opposite challenge. People are already inclined to save rather than spend. And this only increases when there are perceptions of tough times ahead. Helena Loefgren has been studying China's consumption patterns for the Swedish Institute of International affairs and believes this economy is relying too heavily on selling products overseas. In a time of geopolitical uncertainty, people.

[Helena Loefgren]

Save more than they consume and you need the consumption to make up a bigger share of the economy than it's doing today in China.

[Stephen McDonnell]

Another problem for China's younger generations has been that as the country makes a difficult transition to a high tech economy, many of the new successes, successful sectors simply don't require that many employees. Economist George Magnus is an associate at the China Centre at Oxford University.

[Chinese Youth Interviewee]

That's not being helped really by the push to become a champion in robotics and in AI, because tech isn't really that labor intensive anyway.

[Stephen McDonnell]

Vloggers have experienced exploded across China's social media platforms, filming themselves showing young people where they can buy cheap clothes, cheap food, cheap everything. It's feeding into a kind of minimalist consumption subculture for an age with so much uncertainty and with would be customers waiting for the price of goods to keep falling, desperate companies keep slashing their prices. This is driving deflation, which is also dragging down growth. The government might have to expand the social safety net, get graduate wages back up, or find another way to spread optimism amongst China's youth. If it does nothing, the stresses will continue to grow on an economy already under considerable pressure.

[David Brancaccio]

Stephen McDonnell is with the BBC there. And while peer reviewed research shows GLP1 weight loss drugs can also help with diabetes, heart health and kidney function, there was hope they might also help with Alzheimer's. Alas, results this morning of a drug find that Ozempic did not slow Alzheimer's and stock in the drug maker Novo Nordisk is right now down 9%. In Los Angeles, I'm David Brancaccio. It's the Marketplace Morning report from apm, American Public Media.

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