Can the bull market last?

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report – "Can the bull market last?"

Date: September 22, 2025
Host: David Brancaccio

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Overview

This episode examines the state of the ongoing bull market in the U.S. stock market, recent policy shifts, and changes in government regulations affecting pharmaceuticals and immigration. The discussion is timely against a backdrop of robust stock gains, policy uncertainty, and regulatory shifts under the Trump administration.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Bull Market: How Long Can It Last?

• Stock Market Highs:

  • The S&P 500 is up over 15% YTD; Nasdaq up 17% (01:09).
  • Small stocks (Russell 2000) are particularly strong, reaching a record not seen in four years.

• Underlying Fundamentals:

  • Analyst Scott Wren (Wells Fargo Investment Institute) says economic fundamentals, not speculation, are powering gains (01:48).
  • GDP and earnings estimates are on the rise, especially for small-cap companies (01:55).
    • "The market doesn't think there's going to be a recession. GDP estimates are going up. Earnings estimates have gone up for small-cap stocks in particular." – David Brancaccio (01:55)

• Interest Rates’ Role:

  • Recent Federal Reserve rate cuts are helping—particularly small caps, which benefit from lower debt service costs (02:16).

• Investor Sentiment:

  • According to Wells Fargo’s Scott Wren, “...our clients still have considerable amount of cash... they’re not selling stocks, but they’re not jumping in either. The mood does not seem euphoric.” – David Brancaccio (02:34)
  • Sam Stovall (CFRA Research) notes: “There’s not too much expectations that share prices will continue to set new highs." (02:49)
  • Yet skeptics say that because expectations are muted, the market could continue to rise (02:57).
    • “As a result, they probably will.” – Sam Stovall via Mitchell Hartman (02:57)

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U.S. Pharmaceutical Advertising Crackdown

• Regulatory Shift:

  • The Trump administration, with HHS Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr., is moving to rein in televised drug ads (05:08).
  • The focus: curb “false and deceptive advertising,” and “turn back the clock” to the pre-1997 era when ads were limited to print and required full risk disclosure (05:54).

• Practical Consequences:

  • TV ads allowed since 1997 with only a “major risk scene” and disclosure of a toll-free number or website address (07:23).
  • The administration wants to force more comprehensive disclosure, emphasizing actual clinical benefits and risks (06:28).
    • "In reality, the major clinical trial found that about half the people had a major response to this drug. So it looks like the FDA is really going to be leaning on drug companies to try to put a finer point on what they tell the public about... how much these drugs are going to change their lives." – Christina Jewett (06:28)

• Legal & Political Obstacles:

  • Pharmaceutical companies are expected to fight changes on First Amendment grounds (06:58).
    • "If you're going to tell drug makers they can't show people dancing, I think there's a lot to watch here in the coming months and years." – Christina Jewett (08:02)
  • Rulemaking would be slow and susceptible to administrative delays (08:02).

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Immigration Policy: H1B Visa Fee Chaos

• Policy Update:

  • The White House clarified that the new $100,000 H1B visa fee for skilled workers applies only to new applications (08:42).
  • Initial confusion led to panic among employers, with urgent messages to employees abroad to return to the U.S. (08:42).
    • "Some employees had demanded to be let off departing flights when messages from their employers hit their phones." – David Brancaccio (08:42)

• Fee Details:

  • After earlier signals it would be an annual fee, it was clarified as a one-time charge (08:42).

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Bull Market Sentiment:

  • "Our clients still have considerable amount of cash in their accounts... The mood does not seem euphoric." – David Brancaccio (02:34)

• On Ads for Medicine:

  • "He [Kennedy] essentially wants to sort of turn back the clock on this to before 1997..." – Christina Jewett (05:54)
  • "If you're going to tell drug makers they can't show people dancing, I think there's a lot to watch here in the coming months and years." – Christina Jewett (08:02)

• On H1B Visa Chaos:

  • "Some employees had demanded to be let off departing flights when messages from their employers hit their phones." – David Brancaccio (08:42)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Bull Market Analysis: 01:09 – 03:24
• Pharmaceutical Advertising Crackdown: 05:08 – 08:35
• H1B Visa Fee Confusion: 08:42 – 09:39

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Tone and Language

David Brancaccio and his correspondents present the news with a calm, analytical tone. The show is concise, clear, and focuses on delivering immediate, digestible insights for a professional audience.
Speakers' original language is retained, and quotes show a candid, occasionally wry view of market and policy challenges.

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Conclusion

This Marketplace Morning Report episode offers a brisk yet in-depth look at the staying power of the current bull market, explains looming regulatory changes in pharma advertising, and unpacks the chaotic implementation of new H1B visa fees. Listeners are left with a sense of cautious optimism on Wall Street, skepticism about regulatory follow-through, and concern over policy uncertainty affecting business and workers alike.

Transcript

[Emily Hanford]

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[David Brancaccio]

Stock market's been good. The job market is a different story. I'm David Brancaccio in Los Angeles. We have just entered autumn here with The S&P 500 stock index up more than 15% for the year so far, up 3% in a month. The Nasdaq is up 17% in 2025 after the federal Reserve cut interest rates slightly last week. A key index of smaller companies, the Russell 2000, hit a record first time in four years for that high. Trees don't grow to the sky, they say, in investing, and what goes up goes down. We know this. And there's still a lot of uncertainty for investors, including tariff policy marketplaces, Mitchell Hartman reports.

[Mitchell Hartman]

It's economic fundamentals that are now driving stocks higher, says Scott Wren at the Wells Fargo Investment Instit.

[David Brancaccio]

The market doesn't think there's going to be a recession. GDP estimates are going up. Earnings estimates have gone up for small.

[Mitchell Hartman]

Cap stocks in particular. It's a welcome moment in the sun, says Jed Ellerbrook at Argent Capital Management.

[Marketplace Sponsor Announcer]

For the last decade, U.S. large cap stocks have beaten U.S. small cap stocks.

[David Brancaccio]

By quite a bit, he says.

[Mitchell Hartman]

The Fed starting to lower interest rates will be especially helpful for smaller companies because they tend to have more debt. Bull markets can end with everyone piling in, stocks getting overvalued and investors getting burned. But Wells Fargo's Scott Wren doesn't see much risk of that so far.

[David Brancaccio]

You know, our clients still have considerable amount of cash in their accounts that they're not selling stocks, but they're not jumping in either. The mood does not seem euphoric.

[Mitchell Hartman]

Sam Stovall is chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.

[David Brancaccio]

I think that's a good sign. There's not too much expectations that share prices will continue to set new highs.

[Mitchell Hartman]

And as a result, he says they probably will. I'm Mitchell Hartman for MarketPL.

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[David Brancaccio]

For 30 years we've watched those Ask youk Doctor ads that depict rapturous sunlit flower blooming happiness if you take the medicine being marketed on tv. True, many also end in a short string of terrible things that might happen if you take the drug. But the visuals tell a different story. The Trump administration, with Secretary of Health and Human services Robert Kennedy Jr. In charge, is pushing for curbs. New York Times correspondent Christina Jewett is closely following this. Welcome.

[Christina Jewett]

Thank you, David.

[David Brancaccio]

How should I understand Mr. Kennedy's passion about this issue? I mean, he talks about false and Deceptive advertising? Or would you say this is more a reaction to the emphasis in medicine and our culture on taking pharmaceutical approaches in general?

[Christina Jewett]

He essentially wants to sort of turn back the clock on this to before 1997 when a lot of these ads were in print, people, because they were required to disclose all the risks and lots of information. So I think that's sort of the thinking behind that, is that it might reduce the sensibility that these drugs are gonna be a real game changer for people.

[David Brancaccio]

There can be a lack of subtlety when you see a short, say, 30 second or one minute TV ad. I mean, it's a short format and it's certainly not a peer reviewed medical journal, is it?

[Christina Jewett]

I was going through some of these letters to the drug companies this morning, and one of them actually takes on a prostate cancer drug. It says, you know, it shows a man painting a portrait, building a table, training a dog. And, you know, in reality, the major clinical trial found that about half the people had a major response to this drug. So it looks like the FDA is really going to be leaning on drug companies to try to put a finer point on what they tell the public about sort of how much these drugs are going to change, change their lives.

[David Brancaccio]

Now, before 1997, as you say, there were strict rules about touting prescription medicine on American television. Then they allowed it. Allowed in part because we have the First Amendment to the US Constitution about government shall make no law restricting freedom of speech. Now, pharmaceutical companies, which don't like these restrictions are going to make the free speech argument.

[Christina Jewett]

That's right. What changed in 97 was that the ads could go on TV with a major risk scene statement. So those are the things we're all familiar with, the sort of sudden death, fainting, all the other terrible things that could happen related to the drug, and that if they, you know, put on a toll free number or a website address that, that they were totally fine. And so this effort is to really just turn back that clock to 1996.

[David Brancaccio]

Right. And as a practical matter, the way it would work is the Trump administration could change the rules. Pharmaceutical companies and advertising agencies would have to comply. Payments impending, I assume some sort of legal challenge on First Amendment grounds.

[Christina Jewett]

That's certainly possible. You know, one of the first barriers, some of my sources are pointing out, is that rulemaking is tedious, exhaustive and time consuming. And there are some people who've sort of looked at this administration and said, well, they like to make a big announcement, use the bully pulpit, you know, apply pressure, you know, will they go through this tedious process of rulemaking. And of course, as you mentioned, will this survive First Amendment challenges? If you're going to tell drug makers they can't show people dancing, I think there's a lot to watch here in the coming months and years.

[David Brancaccio]

Christina Jewett, domestic correspondent for the New York Times, thank you very much.

[Christina Jewett]

Thank you, David.

[David Brancaccio]

Yesterday Sunday, the White House clarified that its new rule to charge $100,000 for each H1B visa for skilled workers applies to new visa applications the day. Their confusion about the new policy sparked alarm, if not panic, with US Tech Finance and other companies sending out urgent messages to traveling employees on H1B visas to get back to the US immediately on concern the hundred grand would hit them, too. Some employees had demanded to be let off departing flights when messages from their employers hit their phones. Another point of confusion over the weekend. On Friday, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the new fee for the visas would be annual. But Saturday, a White House spokesperson said, no, it's a one time thing. In Los Angeles, I'm David Brancaccio. This is the Marketplace Morning report from APM American Public Media.

[Emily Hanford]

The Trump administration is making deep cuts to education research.

[Christina Jewett]

The cancellation notices started coming when the contract is cut.

[David Brancaccio]

The study just dies.

[Emily Hanford]

It's all happening just as school schools are trying to make use of research to improve reading instruction.

[David Brancaccio]

There would not have been a Science.

[Mitchell Hartman]

Of Reading without the federal funding.

[LHH Sponsor Announcer]

It wouldn't have happened.

[Emily Hanford]

I'm Emily Hanford. On our new episode of Sold A what the Trump Cuts mean for the Science of Reading. Go to your podcast app and follow Sold A story.