China's economy hits a rough patch

Summary

Podcast Summary: Marketplace Morning Report

Episode: China's economy hits a rough patch
Date: December 15, 2025
Host: Sabri Benishour (in for David Brancaccio)
Notable Contributors: Nancy Marshall Genzer, Julia Coronado, Michelle Fleury

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Overview

This episode focuses on new data highlighting recent struggles in China’s economy, and explores the ripple effects this may have globally, especially as the U.S. faces its own economic uncertainty. The show discusses Chinese economic stagnation, the implications for global markets, the ongoing delays and murkiness in U.S. jobs and inflation data, and the unexpectedly tough seasonal job market confronting American workers ahead of the holidays.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. China’s Economic Slowdown

[00:55–02:13]

• Reporter: Nancy Marshall Genzer
• Main Takeaway: Freshly released Chinese government data suggests stagnation in investment, output, and consumer spending.
• Industrial Output: Up 4.8% year-over-year, but below forecasts.
• Retail Sales: Rose only 1.3% over the previous year.
• Fixed Asset Investment: Dropped over 2% from last year—property sector weakness is particularly concerning, as real estate is a primary investment for many Chinese.
• Consumer Behavior: Post-pandemic caution persists; even the extended Singles Day sales were disappointing.
• Outlook: China may hit its 5% annual growth target, but only because it’s exporting more to other countries, not because of strong domestic demand.
  • IMF Warning: “Last week, the head of the International Monetary Fund called on Beijing to stop relying so much on foreign markets and accelerate support for consumption at home.” – Nancy Marshall Genzer [01:58]

2. U.S. Economic Data Delays and Uncertainty

[02:13–04:28]

• Guest: Julia Coronado (Founder, Macro Policy Perspectives; Professor, UT Austin)
• Delayed Data: Backlogs from the government shutdown mean key figures are late or incomplete.
• Jobs: Expectations are for weak job creation and a slight uptick in unemployment—market is “loose and soft.”
  • Quote: “Expectations are that it's still not doing great... kind of a loose and soft labor market is what the market is expecting.” – Julia Coronado [02:50]
• Inflation: November’s report delayed; October’s data will never be released—unprecedented.
  • Quote: “Expectations there are that we're kind of in the same zone. Inflation that's stubbornly high... nor is it settling down towards the Fed's target.” – Julia Coronado [03:13]
• Murky Outlook: Even with new figures, persistent data collection issues mean uncertainty continues.
  • Quote: “We never get our great moment of clarity with economic data, especially not data that is subject to really challenging processing and collection issues.” – Julia Coronado [03:48]
  • Sabri Benishour’s sign-off: “All right, I'll be getting ready for that funky data.” [04:17]

3. Tough Holiday Job Market

[06:18–09:09]

• BBC Report: Michelle Fleury in New York
• Seasonal Hiring: Lowest number of holiday jobs in decades—even as more Americans want such work because of a weak broader labor market.
  • Retail Example: At Garden State Parkway mall, 11,000 applied for just 150 positions. [07:13]
• Stats: Retailers expected to hire fewer than 365,000 temporary workers this season—the lightest in years—even though sales could top $1 trillion.
• Employer Hesitancy: Uncertainty from inflation, tariffs, and costs make hiring extra help riskier for businesses.
  • Expert Insight: “What we see is that the broader labor market has slowed down, and what that means is there are fewer opportunities for job seekers... this is going to be a much more competitive hiring year for these seasonal type jobs than it has been in years past.” – Corey Stall, Senior Economist at Indeed [08:09]
• Consumer Impact: Some are spending less due to economic uncertainty, while others say their holiday shopping will remain unchanged.
  • Shopper 1: “I feel like I'm spending less this holiday season because I just feel like there's a lot going on money wise in the economy, so I'm just trying to look for the good deals.” [08:40]
  • Shopper 2: “I'm a big shopper, so I'm gonna definitely shop the same amount.” [08:53]
  • Shopper 3: “I think we're gonna be shopping more.” [08:59]
• Consequence: With fewer workers, longer lines and less “holiday cheer” are anticipated.

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On China's economy:
  “The property slump is bad news for many Chinese investors who have most of their money tied up in real estate. Chinese consumers have slammed their wallets shut.” – Nancy Marshall Genzer [01:34]
• On U.S. jobs:
  “It's... a loose and soft labor market is what the market is expecting.” – Julia Coronado [02:50]
• On inflation clarity:
  “We never get our great moment of clarity with economic data, especially not data that is subject to really challenging processing and collection issues.” – Julia Coronado [03:48]
• On holiday hiring:
  “We had over 11,000 job applicants... but we filled on the day, 150 positions.” – Will Lewis, Garden State Plaza marketing director [07:13]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:55] – China’s economic data analyzed (Nancy Marshall Genzer)
• [02:13] – U.S. delayed data and economic outlook with Julia Coronado
• [03:48] – Discussion on enduring economic uncertainty (“no moment of clarity”)
• [06:18] – U.S. holiday job market challenges (Michelle Fleury, BBC)
• [08:05] – Expert commentary on labor trends (Corey Stall, Indeed)
• [08:40] – Consumer voices: how holiday spending is changing

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Tone and Language

The episode maintains Marketplace’s signature clarity, efficiency, and slightly wry, approachable tone. The reporting is factual, succinct, and provides listeners with both high-level trends and on-the-ground voices reflecting consumer and business sentiment.

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Conclusion

In under ten minutes, the episode covers significant economic signals from China and the U.S., painting a picture of global uncertainty and adaptation. Listeners gain context for both international and domestic developments—as well as what to watch for in upcoming, possibly “funky” data—while hearing how these macro trends impact ordinary workers and shoppers heading into the holidays.

Transcript

[Marketplace Host]

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[Sabri Benishour]

China's economy has hit a rough patch. From Marketplace, I'm Sabri Benishour in for David Brancaccio. This there's more evidence that China's economy is stalling. Beijing released a batch of government data today that was not encouraging. Marketplace's Nancy Marshall Genzer reports.

[Nancy Marshall Genzer]

The data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China paints a picture of stagnating investment, output and consumption. Industrial output rose by 4.8% over the same time last year, below expectations. Retail sales were up just 1.3% year over year, and investment in fixed average assets, which includes property, slid by more than 2% from last year. The property slump is bad news for many Chinese investors who have most of their money tied up in real estate. Chinese consumers have slammed their wallets shut. China's annual singles day shopping festival was extended, but sales were disappointing. It still looks like China's economy will hit its annual growth target of about 5%, but that's because it's flooding other countries with cheap exports. Last week, the head of the International Monetary Fund called on Beijing to stop stop relying so much on foreign markets and accelerate support for consumption at home. I'm Nancy Marshall Genser for Marketplace.

[Sabri Benishour]

This week, long delayed economic data is going to come pouring in. Tomorrow. We've got the jobs report for November with a bonus of October's jobs 2. Thursday we get the latest on inflation and as she does on Mondays, Julia Coronado joins us to talk about it. She's founder and president of Macro Policy Perspectives and a professor at the University of Texas, Austin. Good morning, Julia.

[Julia Coronado]

Good morning.

[Sabri Benishour]

We are still catching up on economic data after the government shutdown, delayed, everything. Can you remind us where we are at when it comes to what we know about the job market in the US Economy right now?

[Julia Coronado]

Expectations are that it's still not doing great, that it's not a lot of job creation. The unemployment rate may be creeping slowly higher, still low, relatively speaking, but kind of a loose and soft labor market is what the market is expecting.

[Sabri Benishour]

What about inflation? Where are we at with that?

[Julia Coronado]

Well, that we get on Thursday and again, delayed report for November and we will never see October, which is the first time that's ever happened. But expectations there are that we're kind of in the same zone. Inflation that's stubbornly high, it's not accelerating in ways that we saw in the pandemic, but nor is it settling down towards the Fed's target.

[Sabri Benishour]

Once we get all this data, is that going to be some great moment of clarity or. Or is the big picture still going to be kind of murky?

[Julia Coronado]

We never get our great moment of clarity with economic data, especially not data that is subject to really challenging processing and collection issues. So we should expect there's going to be a lot of noise in the data, a lot of issues, and really, it won't be till we get the December and January data that we get a clearer picture. So we should expect and prepare ourselves for some funky data.

[Sabri Benishour]

All right, I'll be getting ready for that funky data. Julia Coronado, Founder and President of Macro Policy Perspectives and a professor at the University of Texas, Austin. Thank you so much.

[Julia Coronado]

My pleasure.

[Marketplace Host]

This Marketplace podcast is supported by Wealth Enhancement, who understand that dreams don't happen by chance. It takes a plan. They're ready to build your wealth Blueprint for retirement, investing, taxes and everything else your financial life brings. It reveals gaps and highlights opportunities you may have missed at no cost to you. Find out [e-mail] Blueprint this Marketplace podcast.

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[Julia Coronado]

This.

[Sabri Benishour]

Holiday season, retailers are expecting to hire the lowest number of additional seasonal workers in decades. And that is despite rising demand for these jobs from Americans who are looking for more lucrative and reliable work in a relatively tough job market. The BBC's Michelle Fleury has this report for us.

[Michelle Fleury]

New York's feeling festive from the magic of Macy's holiday windows to to the glow of Sachs light show along Fifth Avenue. But behind the holiday sparkle, a different story. For many who rely on seasonal work, this year brings fewer jobs and fewer opportunities. At New Jersey's Garden State Parkway mall, the marketing director Will Lewis tells me shops are hiring just not nearly enough to meet the surge of people looking for seasonal work.

[Odoo Sponsor]

We had over 11,000 job applicants come out on a Saturday afternoon for a job fair at which we had 35 plus Garden State Plaza retailers at the job fair, but we filled on the day, 150 positions.

[Michelle Fleury]

According to the National Retail Federation, shops are expected to hire fewer than 365,000 temporary workers this November and December, the lowest seasonal hiring level in years. And yet holiday sales are projected to top $1 trillion in 2025. So what's going on inside this New Jersey? Shopping retailers are gearing up for the holidays, but around the country, many are pulling back on seasonal hiring. Inflation, tariffs and rising costs are creating real uncertainty, making it harder to justify bringing on extra staff.

[Corey Stall]

We do see that this is one of the worst hiring years we've seen in some time.

[Michelle Fleury]

Corey Stall is senior economist from the online job site.

[Corey Stall]

Indeed, what we see is that the broader labor market has slowed down, and what that means is there are fewer opportunities for job seekers, so they're becoming more interested in these jobs. But that slowing labor market also means that employers are less interested in hiring those people. And that's obviously a concern and a challenge. And it means that this is going to be a much more competitive hiring year for these seasonal type jobs than it has been in years past.

[Michelle Fleury]

For some shoppers, the economic uncertainty means tightening their budgets.

[Julia Coronado]

I feel like I'm spending less this holiday season because I just feel like there's a lot going on money wise in the economy, so I'm just trying to look for the good deals.

[Michelle Fleury]

Others say they won't let rising prices dampen their holiday spirit.

[Marketplace Host]

I'm a big shopper, so I'm gonna definitely shop the same amount.

[Sabri Benishour]

I'm not cutting back.

[Michelle Fleury]

I think we're gonna be shopping more. And with fewer seasonal workers, shoppers may face longer lines and a little less holiday cheer.

[Sabri Benishour]

That is Michelle Fleury with our editorial partners at the BBC in New York. I'm Sabri Benishore with the Marketplace Morning Report. From 8:00pm American Public Media.

[Marketplace Host]

As we head toward the end of the year, Marketplace is here to help you make sense of the economy, what's happening, why it matters, and and how it affects you. If this reporting has been valuable to you in 2025, consider becoming a Marketplace investor. Your support powers independent journalism that cuts through the noise and delivers clarity when it counts. Donate [e-mail] or click the link in the show Notes.