China’s economy stalls

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report: China’s Economy Stalls Release Date: March 7, 2025

The latest episode of the Marketplace Morning Report delves into the troubling signs of China's economic slowdown, examining the factors contributing to the deceleration and the potential implications for the global economy. Hosted by Liana Byrne and featuring insights from BBC’s Mariko Oi, the report also covers a range of other significant business and economic stories from around the world.

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China’s Economic Slowdown

Export and Import Declines

At the heart of this episode is the concerning data emerging from China, the world's second-largest economy. Liana Byrne opens the discussion with BBC’s Mariko Oi, highlighting that recent figures indicate a slowdown in China's exports and a significant contraction in imports.

Mariko Oi explains, “Exports not growing as much as economists had expected, which is quite worrying because with the tariffs, these numbers could actually get worse” (00:59). She further elaborates on the import slump, noting, “Economists expected imports to rise by about 1%. They fell by almost like 8.5%” (01:46). The decline spans essential commodities such as crude oil, natural gas, copper, and iron ore, pointing to a broader reduction in demand within China’s vast economy.

Impact of Tariffs and Internal Challenges

The discussion shifts to the role of tariffs, particularly those imposed by the Trump administration. Mariko clarifies, “Some of those new tariffs were kicking in, but not the latest one” (00:59). While tariffs have undoubtedly affected trade dynamics, the internal economic challenges within China are playing an equally significant role.

China’s ambitious GDP growth target of 5% for 2025 is under scrutiny. Mariko questions the feasibility of this goal, stating, “With all the other challenges at home as well, we're talking about that property crisis, high unemployment rate, especially among the country's youth… It will be quite challenging” (01:56). She also touches on skepticism surrounding the accuracy of China’s economic data, citing economists who believe actual growth may be between 2-3%, contrary to official figures (02:49).

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Global Economic Highlights

Bitcoin Market Adjustments

Shifting focus to the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin experienced a slight downturn following news that President Trump is establishing a Bitcoin reserve. This reserve will be funded by cryptocurrency assets seized through criminal investigations, meaning no new Bitcoin will be purchased (02:53). This development has created waves in the crypto community, reflecting ongoing regulatory and governmental influences on digital currencies.

Euro Strengthens Amid German Spending Plans

The euro is on track for its strongest weekly gain in years, buoyed by Germany’s significant new spending initiatives and expectations of higher interest rates. Katya Adler from the BBC reports, “Spain, long languished in defence spending doldrums and suddenly changed its tune… Germany is now encouraging Europe's government to dig deep in their pockets to future proof continental security” (04:11). This shift marks a historic move by the European Union to increase defense spending by up to $870 billion, signaling a strategic pivot in response to global security concerns.

Volkswagen’s Major Recall

In automotive news, Volkswagen has announced a recall of over 177,000 Atlas and Atlas Cross Sport SUVs in the United States. The recall is due to a loose engine cover that poses a potential fire risk. Volkswagen assures customers that dealers will rectify the issue free of charge, emphasizing their commitment to safety and quality.

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European Union's Defense Spending Surge

An emergency summit of European Union leaders culminated in the approval of a substantial defense spending plan. Katya Adler highlights the bloc’s historic decision to allocate up to $870 billion towards defense, a significant increase aimed at enhancing continental security. This move is largely influenced by heightened security concerns and the need for collective defense mechanisms within Europe. Spain and Germany have notably shifted their long-standing positions on defense spending, with Germany urging member states to contribute more substantially to future-proof Europe’s security infrastructure (03:48, 04:11).

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India’s Booming Instant Noodles Market

India has ascended to become the world's third-largest consumer of instant noodles, trailing only China and Indonesia. BBC’s Javina Gupta explores this trend, interviewing consumers and industry experts.

Rising Demand and Market Challenges

With consumption reaching an estimated 5 billion packets annually, the surge in demand is driven by younger consumers seeking convenient and affordable meal options. However, Rising costs have presented significant challenges. Varun Oboroi, Vice President of Nissin India, remarks, “In the last one year, the commodity prices have gone up… oil and wheat… labor costs, all of it has increased” (05:02). Additionally, the phenomenon of shrinkflation—where product sizes are reduced to maintain price points—has affected consumer satisfaction. Astha Agarwal, a consumer, shares her frustration: “When one is cooking noodles, the cake size seems to have shrunk so much” (05:32).

Innovation in Flavors

To counteract these challenges, brands are innovating with international flavors such as Italian, seafood, and Korean, aiming to attract a diverse consumer base while balancing cost, quality, and health concerns. Oboroi adds, “It is also a lot about how affordable that can be” (06:04), highlighting the ongoing effort to make instant noodles both appealing and accessible.

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Eurostar Services Disrupted by Unexploded WWII Bomb

In a surprising incident, all Eurostar rail services between London and Paris were canceled on Friday after an unexploded World War II bomb was discovered near Paris Gare du Nord station. High-speed trains to Belgium, the Netherlands, and local services also faced disruptions. Authorities have assured the public that there is no immediate risk to nearby residents, and the situation is being managed with utmost care to ensure safety (06:45).

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Conclusion

The Marketplace Morning Report provides a comprehensive overview of critical economic developments, from China’s alarming economic indicators to significant shifts in global markets and industry-specific challenges. This episode underscores the interconnectedness of global economies and the multifaceted factors influencing business landscapes worldwide.

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Notable Quotes:

• Mariko Oi: “Exports not growing as much as economists had expected, which is quite worrying because with the tariffs, these numbers could actually get worse” (00:59).

• Mariko Oi: “With all the other challenges at home as well, we're talking about that property crisis, high unemployment rate, especially among the country's youth… It will be quite challenging” (01:56).

• Varun Oboroi: “In the last one year, the commodity prices have gone up… oil and wheat… labor costs, all of it has increased” (05:02).

• Astha Agarwal: “When one is cooking noodles, the cake size seems to have shrunk so much” (05:32).

• Katya Adler: “Germany is now encouraging Europe's government to dig deep in their pockets to future proof continental security” (04:11).

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Stay informed with the Marketplace Morning Report for in-depth analysis and updates on the latest economic and business news shaping our world.

Transcript

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[Liana Byrne]

The numbers aren't looking good for China. Hello, this is the Marketplace morning Report, and we're live from the BBC World Service. I'm Liana Byrne. Fresh data out from the world's second largest economy shows that its exports are slowing and imports have shrunk. The BBC's Mariko Oi has been taking a look at this for us. Hi, Mariko.

[Mariko Oi]

Hello.

[Liana Byrne]

So how much of this can be put down to Trump's tariffs and how much of it can be put down to China's economy in general?

[Mariko Oi]

Well, firstly, in terms of the tariffs, we're talking about the data from the months of January and February. So some of those new tariffs were kicking in, but not the latest one that we've been talking about this week. And, you know, exports not growing as much as economists had expected, which is quite worrying because with the tariffs, these numbers could actually get worse. As for imports, economists expected imports to rise by about 1%. They fell by almost like 8.5%. So I was looking at what they were buying less of. And we're talking about things like crude oil and natural gas, other commodities like copper and iron ore. I think it comes down to demand slowing down in the world's second biggest economy.

[Liana Byrne]

The Chinese government has set this ambitious 5% GDP growth target for 2025. So if that's the case, how realistic is that goal?

[Mariko Oi]

Yeah, that's the big question, isn't it? Because last year they set the target of about 5% as well, and they just managed to hit that after stimulating the economy by all sorts of measures. And with all the other challenges at home as well, we're talking about that property crisis, high unemployment rate, especially among the country's youth. Also, consumers haven't been spending a lot of money because they just don't feel confident about the economy. So with all those challenges, how are they going to achieve that 5% target? It will be quite challenging. I think it is also important to note that, you know, there have been some economists questioning the accuracy of Chinese economic data. You know, there was a China based economist who was saying that, you know, when the government says 4,5% growth, my calculation shows 2 to 3% growth. But we got this import data which was officially released and it's looking pretty dismal.

[Liana Byrne]

The BBC's Mariko Oy, thank you so much for joining us in Marketplace.

[Mariko Oi]

Thank you.

[Liana Byrne]

Now let's do the numbers. Bitcoin came down slightly today after news of the bitcoin reserve President Trump is setting up will be funded by crypto sees through criminal investigations, which means no new bitcoin will be purchased. The euro is heading for its strongest weekly gain in years, boosted by Germany's major new spending plans and expectations of higher interest rates. And news just in. Volkswagen is recalling over 177,000 Atlas and Atlas Cross Sport SUVs in the US due to a loose engine cover that could pose a fire risks. Dealers will fix the issue free of charge. Now following on from an emergency summit of European Union leaders, the bloc says it's approved a plan to increase defense spending by up to $870 billion. The BBC's Katya Adler is in Bruss.

[Katya Adler]

Donald Trump's actions are focusing minds in Europe. Leaders in Brussels last night made EU history, agreeing to hike defence spending dramatically. Spain, long languished in defence spending doldrums and suddenly changed its tune. While traditionally debt allergic, Germany is now encouraging Europe's government to dig deep in their pockets to future proof continental security.

[Liana Byrne]

Katja Adler reporting. Okay, let's go to India, which has become the world's third largest consumer of instant noodles behind China and Indonesia.

[Javina Gupta]

Dr.

[Liana Byrne]

Driven by younger consumers. But rising demand presents new challenges. The BBC's Javina Gupta reports.

[Javina Gupta]

It's almost evening and I'm at a popular instant noodle shop in Delhi which is packed with young people. Now, each plate costs less than a dollar. So let's speak to some of the customers here. So what attracts you to instant noodles?

[Consumer]

I think the taste is a guilty pleasure for me. It's like more of a once or twice a month. Sing for me.

[Javina Gupta]

India's instant noodles market is growing at a rapid pace with consumption reaching an estimated 5 billion packets per year. But as more people turn to this quick snack, the industry faces some critical challenges. Rising costs have put brands on edge.

[Varun Oboroi]

In the last one year, the commodity prices have gone up. So for us, it's oil and wheat. Then followed by the labor costs, all of it has increased.

[Javina Gupta]

And that's Varun Oboroi, vice president of Nissin in India. Nissin is a Japanese company credited with inventing instant noodles after World War II in 1958. But there's another issue at play here. Shrinkflation. Where some brands are reducing the size of products to maintain price points. Here's what a consumer, Astha Agarwal has observed.

[Astha Agarwal]

I don't know what's happening with these noodle companies these days. You know, when one is cooking noodles, the cake size seems to have shrunk so much. And there are days when I cook one pack of noodles and then I don't feel full.

[Javina Gupta]

Let's go back to Varun Oberoi from Nissan India.

[Varun Oboroi]

It has happened in the lower price points, we've seen a shrinkflation. On the higher price points, we've seen price increases.

[Javina Gupta]

But with the pressure to keep noodles affordable, there's another concern. Instant noodles have long been criticized for being high in sodium, fat and preservatives.

[Varun Oboroi]

We are not trying to unnecessarily defend it, that it's a healthy item. But fortunately consumers are aware enough to eat responsibly. And meanwhile we keep offering them the other versions. Also, you know, with Atta, with Millets, it is also a lot about how affordable that can be.

[Javina Gupta]

So Atta again is wheat flour. When you look at the instant noodle market for India, what's the latest trend?

[Varun Oboroi]

International flavors, Italian flavor. We'll have a seafood flavor, a Korean flavor.

[Javina Gupta]

So as the world's most populous country chooses more international flavors of instant noodles, this market here will depend on how well brands can balance cost, quality and health.

[Liana Byrne]

Devenig upto with that report. And finally, all Eurostar rail services between London and Paris have been cancelled for Friday after an unexploded World War II bomb was found near Paris Gare du Nord station. High speed trains to Belgium, the Netherlands and local services have also been disrupted, although officials say there's no risk to nearby residents. I'm Liana Byrne. The Marketplace morning report from the BBC World Service.

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