Clues about where inflation might be headed

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report – Episode Summary

Title: Clues about where inflation might be headed
Date: October 31, 2025
Host: David Brancaccio

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Episode Overview

This episode explores current signals for where U.S. inflation may be heading, especially against the backdrop of a government shutdown that has paused key reports. It also touches on the ongoing impact of tariffs and government spending, the emergence of “micro shifting” in workplace scheduling, and a developing standoff between YouTube and Disney over streaming rights.

[Skip to: Inflation Insights 00:55 | Micro Shifting & Work Trends 04:19 | YouTube & Disney Standoff 07:54]

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Inflation Updates and Insights

[00:55]
With the government shutdown stalling the release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, David Brancaccio and Marketplace’s Justin Ho analyze recent trends and what's influencing inflation right now.

Key Factors Influencing Inflation:

• Falling Rents are an Offset

  • Michael Pierce, Deputy Chief US Economist, Oxford Economics:

    "We've had a lot of new, particularly new apartments completed over the last few years, a lot of new housing stock, and, you know, the demand just hasn't been there. And so we've seen this gradual decline in rents on new leases."
    [01:38]

• Slowing Wage Growth as a Brake

  • Pierce:

    "You know, at least two thirds of the costs of most services actually come down to labor costs. So if those labor costs are not rising as fast, we should see disinflationary pressure continue."
    [01:54]

• Factors Driving Inflation Up

  • President’s tariffs have already "boosted inflation overall by almost half a percent."
  • This year’s budget law—with tax incentives—could nudge prices higher as it "will stimulate business spending."
    • Ben Ayers, Senior Economist, Nationwide [02:04 - 02:23]

• Looking Ahead

  • Despite mixed signals, Ayers doubts inflation will fall to the Fed’s 2% target next year.

    "He doesn't expect inflation to come down to the Fed's 2% target at all next year."
    [02:32]

Memorable Quote

"We should see disinflationary pressure continue." — Michael Pierce, [01:54]

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Social Safety Net & Markets Update

[02:40]

• Food Stamp Disruptions

  • Most beneficiaries won't receive payments this weekend due to the shutdown.
  • A federal judge questions the Trump administration's authority to suspend food aid, as 25 states and DC seek intervention.

• Markets Update

  • "Dow pointing to a down start... Nasdaq up 1.1% after Amazon’s strong profit report. Amazon stock is up 3.13% in pre market trading."
    [02:40 - 03:33]

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The Rise of Micro Shifting & Workplace Flexibility

[04:19]
David Brancaccio discusses the latest workplace trends with Jared Pope, CEO of Workshield and employment law attorney.

What is “Micro Shifting”?

• Flexible, fragmented work schedules replacing the 9-to-5

• Employees work “short bursts,” taking breaks for personal commitments throughout the day

  • Jared Pope:

    "Instead of the traditional 9 to 5 as we may know it, it may be across 7 to 7, but you're going to have different bursts of productivity from these individuals."
    [05:02]

Potential Downsides

• Risk of constant connectivity and burnout

  "What that sometimes leads to is this sense of I'm always on, I'm always having to be on... it could lead to this idea or emotional feeling of geez, I feel like I'm always on. Which leads to burnout."
  [05:50]

Strategies for Employers

• Update Policies:
  "Make sure there's explicit reference to micro shifts. The digital interactions, the asynchronous communication between the employee and the manager or the supervisor, that's number one." [06:31]

• Monitor Workloads:
  "Make sure you deploy some form of tools that ensure 24/7 accessibility monitoring or understanding what that person's doing." [06:31]

• Manager Training:

  "You have to train your managers. That means you have to teach the leaders how to spot the risk of working remotely or in this micro shift… how to maintain that connection. And with that, that training should come in also and say, hey, how are you going to keep the rhythm of your culture? How are you going to keep that heartbeat of your culture so it doesn't fragment?"
  [07:10]

Memorable Exchange

• Brancaccio: “This isn’t just a wonderful Amenity… it can go wrong, right?” [05:32]
• Pope: “That's right… it could lead to burnout.” [05:50]

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Streaming Turmoil: YouTube vs. Disney

[07:54]

• YouTube subscribers lose access to channels like ESPN, ABC, FX, Disney Channel after failed negotiations between Google (YouTube parent) and Disney.
• Other content deals: NBCUniversal and Fox reached agreements with YouTube recently.

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On inflation’s mixed direction:

  "We should see disinflationary pressure continue." — Michael Pierce [01:54]

• On workplace flexibility risks:

  “I feel like I'm always on. Which leads to burnout.” — Jared Pope [05:50]

• On keeping workplace culture alive while flexible:

  “How are you going to keep that heartbeat of your culture so it doesn't fragment?” — Jared Pope [07:10]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [00:55] – Inflation snapshot & report delays
• [01:38] – Rent and wage effects on inflation (Michael Pierce)
• [02:04] – Tariffs, budget law, inflation (Ben Ayers)
• [02:40] – Food stamps & stock market update
• [04:19] – Micro shifting: Definitions, upsides and downsides
• [06:31] – Policy & management strategies for micro shifting
• [07:54] – YouTube loses Disney channels

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For Listeners

This episode condenses critical economic trends—including key clues about inflation’s future, the ongoing challenges of the evolving workplace, and notable shifts in streaming access—providing actionable insights for anyone needing a rapid but thorough news briefing.

Transcript

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[David Brancaccio]

One wash when impossible odors get stuck in how are your bills? That's one way for you to keep tabs on your personal inflation this morning. In lieu of the Federal Reserve's favorite reading on inflation, I'm David Brancaccio in Los Angeles. The personal consumption expenditures inflation report is not coming out today because it's government shutdown day 31 here. What else do we know about inflation at a time of tariffs marketplaces? Justin Ho reports inflation has been picking.

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Up this year, but there are a couple of factors that have been pushing against that increase. Michael Pierce, deputy chief US Economist with Oxford Economics, says in many parts of the country, rents have been coming down.

[Michael Pierce]

We've had a lot of new, particularly new apartments completed over the last few years, a lot of new housing stock, and, you know, the demand just hasn't been there. And so we've seen this gradual decline in rents on new leases.

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Wage growth has been slowing, too. Pierce says that also takes pressure off of inflation.

[Michael Pierce]

You know, at least two thirds of the costs of most services actually come down to labor costs. So if those labor costs are not rising as fast, we should see disinflationary pressure continue.

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But there are also plenty of factors pushing inflation higher, including the president's tariffs. Pierce says those have already boosted inflation overall by almost half a percent. Ben Ayers, senior economist at Nationwide, says the budget law passed this year could also stoke prices, since the law's tax incentives will stimulate business spending.

[Jared Pope]

That should hopefully shift many of these.

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Businesses that have been trying to see.

[Jared Pope]

How things settle out with tariffs, shift them back into expansion mode next year.

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Aris says he doesn't expect inflation to come down to the Fed's 2% target at all next year. I'm Justin Ho for Marketplace.

[David Brancaccio]

We continue to cover food stamp payments not arriving for most beneficiaries starting this weekend. Another government shutdown problem. Investors in court. A federal judge in Boston yesterday appeared skeptical. The Trump administration has the legal authority to suspend food aid for millions. 25 states and the District of Columbia asked the judge to intervene. Market stock index futures are mixed and are pointing to a down start for the Dow today, but a sharply higher start for the Nasdaq with futures there up 1.1% after Amazon's very strong profit report late yesterday. Amazon stock is up 3 13% in pre market trading.

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[David Brancaccio]

The way we work in 2025, still more than a third of us work away from the office at least once a week. Another trend, voluntarily working in fits and starts a little here, a lot there, as long as you get the work done. It's called micro shifting and it brings welcome flexibility. But can it lead to an always kind working trudge toward burnout? Jared Pope is a benefits and employment law attorney and also CEO of workshield, a tool for companies to handle workplace harassment. Jared, welcome.

[Jared Pope]

Thank you for having me.

[David Brancaccio]

Let me see if I understand this right. Micro shifting, it's like working in fits and starts as long as you get the job well done. Is it something like that?

[Jared Pope]

Yeah, absolutely. It's kind of this growing practice where employees may have short burst working and then they'll go do something else. Like, hey, they're going to spend a couple of hours and go work and then they're going to come back and do another sprint or burst throughout that day. And so instead of the traditional 9 to 5 as we may know it, it may be across 7 to 7, but you're going to have different bursts of productivity from these individuals.

[David Brancaccio]

This isn't just a wonderful Amenity to make lives easier for people who have multiple commit. I mean it can go wrong, right? You can end up putting in lots of hours at all hours, just not all strung together into an eight or nine hour shift.

[Jared Pope]

That's right. If you think about the individual that may wake up early, they work that three or four hours, they take off two or three hours to go, run the kids to daycare, run the errands, do whatever they need to do and then come back on. What that sometimes leads to is this sense of I'm always on, I'm always having to be on. I'm worried about, did I miss an email? Did I not miss an email? So it could lead to this idea or emotional feeling of geez, I feel like I'm always on. Which leads to burnout.

[David Brancaccio]

Any tips for, you know, if you're managing a company that wants to do this so that it doesn't lead to the wrong outcome?

[Jared Pope]

Well, you have to modernize your policies. Number one, with these flexible schedules, you have to make sure there's explicit reference to micro shifts. So the digital interactions, the asynchronous communication between the employee and the manager or the supervisor, that's number one. Number two, you're going to have to make sure you deploy some form of tools that ensure 247 accessibility monitoring or understanding what that person's doing.

[David Brancaccio]

And what are your thoughts on actually training managers so they understand how to optimize this micro shifting?

[Jared Pope]

It should be number one in your playbook. You have to train your managers. That means you have to teach the leaders how to spot the risk of working remotely or in this micro shift. Okay, how do you solicit that feedback? How do you see when underperformance is happening or even over performance, but then also training them how to maintain that connection. And with that, that training should come in also and say, hey, how are you going to keep the rhythm of your culture? How are you going to keep that heartbeat of your culture so it doesn't fragment?

[David Brancaccio]

Jared Pope, CEO of workshield. He's also a benefits and employment law attorney. Thank you very much.

[Jared Pope]

Thanks for having me. I appreciate it.

[David Brancaccio]

And YouTube is a searchable source for videos, right? But if you pay money, it's like a cable TV system. A one stop shop for watching a wide range of channels. But YouTube subscribers have been left searching for ESPN, ABC, FX, Nat Geo, Disney Channel, ABC News Live. After talks broke down between YouTube parent Google and the owner of those channels, that's Disney. For their parts, NBCUniversal and Fox had managed to reach YouTube deals recently. Our executive producer is Nancy Fargali. Our digital team includes Antoinette Brock, Emily McCune, and Dylan Mietanen. Our engineers are Rachel Brees and Tessa Block. I'm David Brancaccio. Marketplace Morning Report from apm American Public.

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