Marketplace Morning Report

Episode Title: Does the Fed now have a "dueling mandate"?
Date: November 14, 2025
Host: David Brancaccio
Featured Guests:

• Nancy Marshall Genser, Marketplace
• Diane Swonk, Chief Economist, KPMG
• Michael Chui, Senior Fellow at Quantum Black AI by McKinsey

Episode Overview

This episode explores major shifts in economic and business policy affecting the U.S., focusing on recent tariff negotiations, the Federal Reserve’s current dilemma amid unreliable economic data, and how businesses are using AI three years after the release of ChatGPT. Through expert interviews and news analysis, the episode unpacks the Fed’s increasingly complex “dueling mandate,” the practical impact of new trade frameworks, and the real adoption of AI in industry.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. New U.S. Tariff Frameworks with Central and South American Countries

(Begins at 00:43)

• Four Countries Involved: El Salvador, Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala.

• Changes Outlined: U.S. to remove reciprocal tariffs on products not sufficiently available domestically, notably coffee and bananas.

• Tariff Details: Despite reductions, a flat 10% tariff remains on most goods from Argentina, Guatemala, and El Salvador, and 15% on products from Ecuador.

• Retail Impact: Price drops possible if retailers pass savings to consumers, but no new U.S. access to more Argentinian beef due to domestic rancher resistance.

  “The Trump administration says it'll remove reciprocal tariffs from certain products from these countries that can't be grown, mined or naturally produced in the US in sufficient quantities... But the US would apparently still charge a flat 10% tariff on most imports from Argentina, Guatemala and El Salvador and a 15% duty on products from Ecuador.”
  — Nancy Marshall Genser [01:08]

• Other Trade Provisions:

  • No digital services tax on data (Meta, Google)
  • Stricter IP protection standards

• Implementation Timeline: No deadline; aims for signature in “coming weeks”.

  “There is no deadline. The White House just says they'll work to get the framework agreement signed in the coming weeks.”
  — Nancy Marshall Genser [02:33]

2. The Fed’s “Dueling Mandate” and Economic Uncertainty

(Begins at 02:41)

• Data Delays: Economic indicators delayed/distorted by government shutdown, leading to gaps in knowledge about job market and inflation trends.

• Fed’s Predicament:

  • Labor market weakening and inflation climbing simultaneously.
  • Incomplete data ahead of the Dec. 10th Fed meeting means potential decision delays on interest rates.

• Expert Analysis: Diane Swonk describes this as a “dueling mandate”, with the Fed caught between controlling inflation and addressing rising unemployment.

  “Instead of a dual mandate, they now have a dueling mandate where inflation and unemployment are both likely edging up, but they're not going to have the full picture of data before their December 10th meeting.”
  — Diane Swonk [03:06]

• Potential Policy Impact:

  • Possible Fed delay in cutting rates until January for more data, which may build political pressure but not significantly affect the economy in the very short term.

  “You know, waiting between December and January is really splitting hairs and doesn't mean much in terms of the overall economy... [but] it does mean something in terms of headlines and how political pressure will build.”
  — Diane Swonk [04:11]

• Stock Market Sentiment: Investors wary, especially regarding high tech stock valuations driven by the continuing AI boom. Wealth effects among affluent buyers are closely watched as a potential tipping point for wider economic consequences.

  “Anything to spook the affluent buyers that have been carrying the economy could mean much more dire consequences for the overall economy, and that would make it much more clear cut of where the Fed should go with regard to interest rates.”
  — Diane Swonk [04:51]

3. Three Years into the AI Boom—How Are Companies Actually Using It?

(Begins at 07:16)

• Background: Marks three years since generative AI (e.g., ChatGPT) reshaped tech and business.

• Industry Adoption:

  • ~90% of surveyed companies use AI at some level.
  • Most (~66%) remain in experimental or pilot phases; only a minority have scaled AI across operations.

• High Performers:

  • “AI high performers” overhaul core business functions and workflows, rather than bolting on AI as an extra tool.
  • True transformation requires leadership commitment and vision.

  “There's a fundamental, qualitative, and quite frankly quantitative difference between doing [AI integration fully] and saying, look, these are the most important workflows in my business. Here's how I could use AI to completely rethink how they're done and then therefore get to impact.”
  — Michael Chui [08:32]

• Layoffs and Disruption:

  • Example: Amazon cutting 14,000 corporate jobs, possibly tied to AI efficiencies.
  • Concern over job losses and the importance of reskilling workers.

  “For anyone who experiences a job loss, it's important to realize as individual workers and then as corporate leaders, what can we do to reskill our workforce to help people to the next role?”
  — Michael Chui [10:04]

• Workforce Impact:

  • Raises question of “who benefits?” given some workers will earn more with AI-driven productivity, while others face disruption.

4. Market Updates and Closing Notes

(Begins at 10:30)

• StubHub Stock:
  • Down 22% after company withholds quarterly guidance.
• Climate Crisis and Food Security (Teaser):
  • Next episode teased on climate-threatened crops and innovation in food systems.
  • “Imagine a future where chocolate and coffee are rare and expensive.” — Amy Scott [10:42]

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On the Fed's dilemma:
  “Instead of a dual mandate, they now have a dueling mandate…”
  — Diane Swonk [03:06]
• On AI integration in business:
  "Nine out of 10 companies are using AI, [but] two thirds...haven't gotten beyond the experimenting and piloting phases to actually scaling it."
  — Michael Chui [08:32]
• On labor market and inflation data:
  "They're not going to have the full picture of data before their December 10th meeting."
  — Diane Swonk [03:06]
• On market sensitivity:
  "Anything to spook the affluent buyers that have been carrying the economy could mean much more dire consequences for the overall economy…"
  — Diane Swonk [04:51]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:43: Start of main news—Tariff agreements and implications
• 02:41: Discussion shifts to Federal Reserve and economic data uncertainty
• 03:06: Diane Swonk on the Fed’s “dueling mandate”
• 07:16: Anniversary of generative AI and its business impact
• 08:32: Michael Chui on the difference between piloting and scaling AI
• 10:04: The personal and workforce disruptions of AI-driven changes
• 10:30: StubHub stock drop and market wrap-up
• 10:42: Teaser for next episode on climate and food security

Summary

This episode encapsulates the uncertainty and inflection points facing both policymakers and business leaders: the U.S. refines tariffs with key trade partners; the Federal Reserve grapples with conflicting mandates, incomplete data, and looming decisions on interest rates; and, on the third anniversary of generative AI, companies are challenged to move from experimentation to deep integration—creating both winners and deeply felt disruptions in the workforce. For listeners, the episode offers timely insight into how these major threads intersect and impact the broader economy.