Doing the numbers on your grocery bill

Summary

Podcast Summary: Marketplace Morning Report – "Doing the numbers on your grocery bill"

Date: April 13, 2026
Host: Sabri Benishour (for Marketplace)
Guests: Kaylee Wells (Marketplace), Patrick Rooney (Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy), Charlotte Ambrzek (University of Minnesota), William Masters (Tufts University)
Episode Duration: ~8 minutes

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Main Theme

This episode unpacks the latest business headlines with a focus on consumer impact—particularly changes in grocery bills and charitable giving following recent U.S. tax and spending law updates. The hosts and expert guests explore why some food prices are rising faster than others, and how shifts in tax policy could both expand the base of donors to nonprofits and, paradoxically, reduce total charitable donations.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Energy and Global Markets Update

• Oil & Gas Prices Spike: Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have escalated after U.S.-Iran talks collapsed and the U.S. announced a partial blockade on Iranian ports.
• Market Impact:
  • Brent crude hits $103 per barrel.
  • Specifics: U.S. will allow ships not stopping by Iran to pass through; otherwise, vessels are subject to U.S. interception.
• Quote:

  "Brent crude is at $103 a barrel." – Sabri Benishour (01:22)

2. Digging into Grocery Prices (Segment starts at 01:23)

2.1. Overview of Grocery Price Trends

• Average Grocery Price Increase: Up roughly 2% year-over-year—but this average masks widely varying price changes among food categories.
• Breakdown:
  • Fruits & Vegetables: Up 4%
  • Non-Alcoholic Beverages: Up almost 5%
  • Meat & Dairy: Down

2.2. Fruits & Vegetables: Why the Spike?

• Primary Culprits: Lettuce and tomatoes.
• Reason: Weather disruptions in Minnesota—unusual timing of heat and rain led to crop issues:
  • Too much fall rain: Splitting tomatoes.
  • Excess winter heat: Bitter lettuces.
• Key Expert Insight:
  • "Too much fall rain splits tomatoes. Too much winter heat makes lettuces bitter, meaning lower yields of both and higher prices." – Kaylee Wells (02:44)

2.3. Beverages: The Role of Coffee and Tariffs

• Driver: Rising tariff costs are the “almost entirely” responsible for the nearly 5% increase in beverage prices.
• Quote:
  • "It's almost entirely driven by coffee and a lot of that is tariffs." – Patrick Rooney (02:55)

2.4. Meat & Dairy: Easing Prices

• Reasons for Price Drop:
  1. Herd sizes are up—it takes time for livestock farmers to respond, so supply is finally catching up.
  2. Consumer demand for meat, previously driven by trendy eating patterns, is flattening.
• Expert Explanation:
  • "Livestock farmers take a while to respond to demand because it takes a while to breed and raise a cow. Prices are falling... because supply is starting to catch up with demand." – William Masters (03:17)
  • "As that fad begins to flatten, that also brings down the price of meat." – Kaylee Wells (03:35)

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3. Charitable Giving and the New U.S. Tax Law (Segment starts at 04:58)

3.1. Universal Charitable Deduction: A Wider Net

• New Feature: Now, more Americans can deduct charitable gifts—up to $1,000 per individual / $2,000 per married couple, even if they don’t itemize.
• Expected Effect: Estimated 6-8 million new donors.
• Quote:
  • "This is a way of really democratizing small d philanthropy." – Patrick Rooney (05:44)
  • "We estimate that will have around 6 to 8 million new donors coming into the philanthropic space." – Patrick Rooney (05:49)

3.2. But Total Giving Could Drop

• Why?
  1. Itemizers’ New "Floor":
     • Now only able to deduct charitable gifts above 0.5% of their adjusted gross income, reducing large deductions.
     • Expected reduction in giving: $2.4 billion
     • "We estimated that that would reduce charitable giving by $2.4 billion." – Patrick Rooney (06:57)
  2. High-Income Deduction Cap:
     • For earners $500k+ (especially $1M+), max deduction is capped at 35% instead of matching the new top tax bracket (previously 37%).
     • "So we estimated that this tax cap would reduce household giving by $6.1 billion." – Patrick Rooney (07:36)
• Combined Impact: Net annual drop in charitable giving value: $5.7 billion—about 1% of total giving
• Rooney’s Take:
  • "...doesn't sound like that big of a deal. But this is something that will be an ongoing effect, not just in one year, but it'll be a permanent effect until the tax laws are changed again." – Patrick Rooney (08:13)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Hiding Inflation in Averages:

  "Averages have a way of hiding things. You don't see the extreme." – Sabri Benishour (01:18)

• Weather’s Impact on Produce:

  "Too much fall rain splits tomatoes. Too much winter heat makes lettuces bitter." – Kaylee Wells (02:44)

• On Democratizing Philanthropy:

  "This is a way of really democratizing small d philanthropy." – Patrick Rooney (05:44)

• On the Effect of the High-Income Deduction Cap:

  "...People who earn a million dollars or more... account for 48% of total household giving, dollar wise." – Patrick Rooney (07:36)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:10] – Oil market update and the impact of the Strait of Hormuz situation
• [01:23] – Grocery price trends breakdown: what’s up, what’s down
• [02:27] – In-depth: why fruits/vegetables and beverage prices are rising
• [03:00] – Explaining meat/dairy price drops
• [04:58] – Shifts in charitable giving due to new tax laws
• [05:44] – Details on the universal charitable deduction
• [06:34] – How new deduction "floors" and caps affect total donations
• [08:10] – Summary of the overall impact on charitable giving

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Summary Table: Price Changes Year-over-Year

| Food Category | % Change YoY | Notes | |---------------------------|-------------------|----------------------------------| | Fruits & Vegetables | +4% | Lettuce/tomato issues, weather | | Non-Alcoholic Beverages | +5% (almost) | Coffee/tariff-driven | | Meat & Dairy | Down | Supply up, demand softening |

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Overall Tone & Style

Concise, data-driven, and approachable, with a focus on unpacking statistics to reveal their true impact on the everyday consumer and donor. The episode blends practical economic reporting with expert commentary to help listeners understand why their grocery bills and their giving capacity may look different this year.

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For anyone who missed the episode, this summary provides a robust overview of the economic headlines shaping food prices and charitable giving trends in 2026—complete with expert insights, quotable moments, and clear explanations of the policy changes affecting wallets nationwide.

Transcript

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[Sabri Benishour]

A New Kind of Blockade in the Strait of Hormuz Courtesy of the US From Marketplace, I'm Sabri Benishour. The price of oil and natural gas are back up after talks between the US And Iran collapsed and new threats from President Trump. He said the U.S. would blockade Iranian ports starting at 10am Eastern today and and intercept any ships passing through the strait that had paid tolls to Iran. The president had initially posted that the US Would be blockading the Strait of Hormuz itself, but US Central Command says ships will be allowed through as long as they aren't stopping by Iran. Brent crude is at $103 a barrel. Grocery prices in this month's Consumer Price Index are up lightly on average about 2% compared to this time last year. But averages have a way of hiding things. You don't see the extreme. If, however, you take a look at individual food groups, that is where things get interesting and you find the bigger numbers that you have probably already noticed yourself. On shelves. Fruits and vegetable prices are up 4% compared to last year. Non alcoholic beverages are up almost 5%, and meanwhile, meat and dairy are both down. Marketplace's Kaylee Wells has more on what's going on.

[Kaylee Wells]

When it comes to fruits and vegetables, the main culprits are lettuces and tomatoes. Charlotte Ambrzek teaches economics at the University of Minnesota, Minnesota they had a lot

[Patrick Rooney]

of heat and a lot of rain in not the order that they usually like to have those things in.

[Kaylee Wells]

Too much fall rain splits tomatoes. Too much winter heat makes lettuces bitter, meaning lower yields of both and higher prices, ambrzyck says. As for the jump in beverage prices,

[Patrick Rooney]

it's almost entirely driven by coffee and a lot of that is tariffs.

[Kaylee Wells]

Meanwhile, meat prices have fallen for two reasons, says food economics and policy professor William Masters at Tufts University University.

[Patrick Rooney]

Meat prices had been exceptionally high primarily because of the relatively low number of livestock in the US Herd.

[Kaylee Wells]

Livestock farmers take a while to respond to demand because it takes a while to breed and raise a cow. Prices are falling, Master says, because supply is starting to catch up with demand. On top of that, prices had also

[Patrick Rooney]

been high because of the surge of demand because of meat being this more fashionable thing now.

[Kaylee Wells]

And as that fad begins to flatten, master says, that also brings down the price of meat. I'm Kaylee Wells for Marketplace.

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[Sabri Benishour]

sure I don't need to tell you this, but we are just two days from tax day and we have spent the last few months breaking down how the big tax and spending law signed last summer by President Trump has changed tax season this year. Today we're talking about deductions for charitable giving. A report from the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy found that tax law changes could increase how many people are donating to nonprofits, but at the same time reduce the overall amount of money charities get. Which sounds weird. So we are asking Patrick Rooney to help us make it make sense. He's co author of the report. Good morning.

[Patrick Rooney]

Good morning.

[Sabri Benishour]

So what are the main changes from the tax and spending law that are likely to affect charitable giving?

[Patrick Rooney]

One of the main things is the universal charitable deduction. And what it does is, you know, most people, 90% no longer itemize on their taxes and so they may make charitable gifts, but they can't take a deduction. And this universal charitable deduction allows People to deduct up to $1,000 for singletons and up to $2,000 for married couples. And this is a way of really democratizing small d philanthropy. And we estimate that that will have around 6 to 8 million new donors coming into the philanthropic space.

[Sabri Benishour]

So a lot more people can deduct charitable donations of up to $1,000. Where's the part where the total amount of giving comes down?

[Patrick Rooney]

Yeah, so there's a couple factors that have negative or deleterious impacts, and one of them is that for itemizers, they can only deduct after they establish a floor of giving. So after they give 0.5% of their charitable gifts, they can only deduct the additional gifts. And we estimated that that would reduce charitable giving by $2.4 billion.

[Sabri Benishour]

Oh, wow.

[Patrick Rooney]

And something that's even bigger is that on the high end, people who are making a half million to a million dollars or more per year and facing the 37% marginal tax bracket, there's a cap of 35% on what they can deduct on all deductions, including charitable donations.

[Sabri Benishour]

So just so I understand, the wealthiest income brackets, instead of being able to deduct 37% of their income in charitable deductions, they can deduct 35%. Are there a lot of really wealthy people that give that much of their income to charity?

[Patrick Rooney]

Well, yeah, you know, in that group of people who earn a million dollars or more, they account for 48% of total household giving, dollar wise. So we estimated that this tax cap would reduce household giving by $6.1 billion. So, you know, it seems like it creates an outsized effect.

[Sabri Benishour]

So all said, these kind of small changes would result in a $5.7 billion drop in charitable donations. The value of them overall, how big of a deal is that?

[Patrick Rooney]

It's about 1% of total giving. And so that doesn't sound like that big of a deal. But this is something that will be an ongoing effect, not just in one year, but it'll be a permanent effect until the tax laws are changed again.

[Sabri Benishour]

Patrick Rooney is professor emeritus at the Lilly Family School of Philanthropy. Thank you so much.

[Patrick Rooney]

Thanks for having me.

[Sabri Benishour]

In New York, I'm Sabri Benishore with the Marketplace morning Report from 8pm American Public Media.

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