Employers and workers wait and see

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report: Employers and Workers Wait and See
Release Date: July 2, 2025
Host: David Brancaccio

---

1. Job Market Updates

ADP Payroll Insights
David Brancaccio opens the report by highlighting the anticipation around the upcoming Labor Department's job market data. The ADP payroll company provides an early indicator by analyzing the number of paychecks processed ahead of the official report.

"Later this morning, we'll get the economic version of what the theater world might call an out of town tryout." [01:00]

The prediction suggests that the June payroll numbers will nearly triple those of May, indicating a strong job market. However, contrasting this optimism, another measure points to a stagnating job market through the lens of job churn.

Understanding Job Churn
Justin Ho delves into the concept of job churn, explaining its significance in assessing the ease of finding new employment.

"Job churn can tell us a lot about how easy it is to find a job. For instance, if the quits rate is high, it's a sign people feel comfortable quitting because they see plenty of other opportunities." [01:35]

Nancy Vandenhouten, Lead Economist at Oxford Economics, observes that both the quits rate and hiring rate have been declining for over three years. While this trend is concerning, it hasn't yet triggered alarm bells.

"The quits rate and the hiring rate have been trending lower for more than three years now, while that is concerning, it's not yet a red flag." [01:54]

Despite the low hiring rates, layoffs remain minimal. Bill Adams, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank, attributes this to employers' hesitancy to part with workers, a lingering effect from the challenges faced during and after the pandemic.

"Layoffs remain low because employers are nervous to let go of workers... likely because of all the difficulty that they experienced in the pandemic and post pandemic." [02:12]

Furthermore, uncertainty surrounding tariff policies adds to the cautious stance of both businesses and employees, leading to reduced hiring and quitting activities as both parties await clearer economic signals.

"Workers and employers are simply waiting to see how the broader economy shakes out." [02:27]

---

2. Political Developments

Brancaccio addresses the potential political ramifications affecting economic policies. With the Labor Department's hiring and unemployment reports slated for release, political maneuvers are also in play.

"Some hardline Republicans who want deeper cuts to government programs could derail a procedural vote in the House of Representatives today..." [02:52]

This internal conflict within the House threatens the progress of a sweeping tax and program-cutting bill, which aims to pass before the July 4th holiday. The outcome could have significant implications for government spending and economic regulation.

---

3. Critical Minerals and Supply Chains

Quad Nations' Strategic Move
A significant portion of the report focuses on international efforts to secure critical mineral supplies. The Quad—a strategic group comprising Australia, India, Japan, and the U.S.—is actively pursuing diversified supply chains to reduce dependence on China.

"Australia, India, Japan and the US have a new push to lock in supplies of critical minerals from sources other than China." [02:52]

BBC's Archana Shukla elaborates on this initiative, emphasizing the need for a resilient and diversified supply chain to mitigate risks associated with economic coercion, price manipulation, and supply disruptions.

"Reliance on any one country for processing and refining these critical minerals kind of exposes the industries to economic coercion, price manipulation and supply chain disruptions." [03:30]

This strategic collaboration aims to ensure a stable and reliable flow of essential minerals, which are vital for various industries, including technology and clean energy.

---

4. Impact of Military Deployments on Families

Personal Stories Highlighting Struggles
The report shifts focus to the personal impact of military deployments on families. With President Trump's recent actions in California and the U.S. bombing of nuclear facilities in Iraq, military families are facing unexpected challenges.

"It's been less than a month since President Trump took control of California's National Guard and later ordered active duty Marines to police parts of Southern California." [05:34]

Megan Byram's Experience
Megan Byram shares her experience as the spouse of a maintenance officer in the Air Force deployed to South Korea.

"My husband's going to be gone for a full year. The Air Force pays his rent, but he has to buy new bedding and kitchen stuff and a car to get around." [05:54]

She highlights the financial strain, including unexpected expenses and the responsibility of managing household tasks with their three sons. Byram emphasizes the uncertainty of deployment costs and the lack of substantial financial support, despite available incentives like family separation allowances.

"Anytime we deploy or we move, we can. Realistically, we need to set aside three to five thousand dollars." [05:54]

Kayla's Challenges with Deployment Uncertainty
Another military spouse, Kayla, discusses the difficulties posed by the unpredictability of deployments, especially amid geopolitical tensions following the U.S. attack on Iran.

"Kayla says the uncertainty around this deployment makes it hard to plan financially. They have two sons under five. She expects to spend an extra $200 a month on babysitting or more." [07:11]

Both Megan and Kayla underscore the emotional and financial toll on military families, who balance the demands of service with the complexities of managing household finances and childcare.

"Every single military spouse I spoke to for this story made one point, our families signed up for this. Our spouses weren't drafted." [08:05]

Nancy Marshall Genzer concludes by reinforcing that military families are striving to make ends meet amidst these challenges.

---

5. Stock Market Dividend Increases

Bank Dividends Surge
In the financial sector, major banks have seen a significant uptick in dividends, providing lucrative returns to shareholders.

"Goldman Sachs dividends up 33%. Bank of America up 8%. Citibank and JPMorgan Chase both up 7%." [08:40]

This surge is partly due to the relaxation of financial stress tests implemented after the last financial crisis, allowing banks to distribute a larger portion of their profits to investors.

---

Conclusion

Today's Marketplace Morning Report delved into the complexities of the current job market, political uncertainties affecting economic policies, strategic international moves to secure critical mineral supplies, and the personal struggles of military families facing deployments. Additionally, positive developments in the banking sector offer a glimmer of financial optimism. As both employers and employees adopt a wait-and-see approach amidst these multifaceted challenges, the economic landscape remains poised for significant developments in the coming months.

---

For more insights and detailed discussions, tune into the full episode of Marketplace Morning Report.

Transcript

[Rima Reis]

This Marketplace podcast is supported by Palo Alto Networks. Listen to threatvector, the Palo Alto Networks podcast, for in depth discussions with industry leaders and experts providing crucial insights for security decision makers. Whether you're looking to stay ahead of the curve with innovative solutions or understand the evolving cybersecurity landscape, ThreatVector equips you with the knowledge needed to safeguard your organization. Tune in and subscribe to threatvector wherever you get your podcasts.

[Joshua McNichols]

Here in Seattle, we're building the technologies of the future, from AI to clean energy.

[Monica Nicholsburg]

But we're also dealing with some of today's biggest challenges, like the housing crisis and the skyrocketing cost of living.

[Joshua McNichols]

We're here to break it all down for you. I'm Joshua McNichols.

[Monica Nicholsburg]

And I'm Monica Nicholsburg. Join us on Booming, a weekly podcast from KUOW about the economic forces shaping our lives here in the Pacific Northwest.

[Joshua McNichols]

Listen on the KUOW app or wherever you get your podcasts.

[David Brancaccio]

Later this morning, we'll get the economic version of what the theater world might call an out of town tryout. I'm David Brancaccio in Los Angeles. The ADP payroll company counts up the paychecks it processes for a reading on the strength of the job market ahead of the official report that comes out later. The prediction is the June tally will come in nearly three times higher than in May. We'll get the report shortly. Meanwhile, another measure shows the job market treading water. It's about churn do we have the confidence to leave and take a different job Marketplace's Justin Ho goes deeper.

[Nancy Vandenhouten]

Job churn can tell us a lot about how easy it is to find a job. For instance, if the quits rate is high, it's a sign people feel comfortable quitting because they see plenty of other opportunities.

[Joshua McNichols]

When it's low, it indicates workers are more apt to stay put because they don't see that many opportunities out there.

[Nancy Vandenhouten]

Nancy Vandenhouten is lead economist at Oxford Economics. The quits rate and the hiring rate have been trending lower for more than three years now, Vandenhouten says. While that is concerning, it's not yet a red flag.

[Joshua McNichols]

You know, the low hiring rate has not alarmed us as much as it would otherwise because layoffs remain low.

[Nancy Vandenhouten]

Layoffs remain low because employers are nervous to let go of workers, says Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica bank, likely because of all the difficulty that they experienced in the pandemic and post pandemic.

[Joshua McNichols]

Period in getting back to being fully staffed.

[Nancy Vandenhouten]

Adams says all of the uncertainty around tariff policy is also making it harder for businesses and workers to make any decisions. That's likely a contributor to the low level of hires from employers perspective and to the low level of job quitting from workers perspective. In other words, workers and employers are simply waiting to see how the broader economy shakes out. I'm Justin Ho for Marketplace.

[David Brancaccio]

The Labor Department's big hiring and unemployment reports are due tomorrow morning, unusual for a Thursday, but the first Friday of this month is a holiday. Some hardline Republicans who want deeper cuts to government programs could derail a procedural vote in the House of Representatives today that could bust the Republicans self imposed deadline of getting the sweeping tax cutting and program cutting bill to the President's desk before the fourth of July holiday. Australia, India, Japan and the US Have a new push to lock in supplies of critical minerals from sources other than China. The BBC's Archana Shukla has more countries.

[Archana Shukla]

Realize that they need to have a different diversified supply chain for critical minerals is concerned and hence these countries have come together now to talk about sourcing from each other. Building the supply chain. There are several countries like Australia or certain countries in Africa that have critical mineral mines which are now, you know, countries are seeking more partnerships there to source and have a separate supply chain. In fact, in one of the statements made there they said that reliance on any one country for processing and refining these critical minerals kind of exposes the industries to economic coercion, price manipulation and supply chain disruptions.

[David Brancaccio]

That rare earth group is called the Quad. Australia, India, Japan and the US.

[Rima Reis]

If.

[Megan Byram]

You work in quality control at a candy factory, you know strict safety regulations come with the job. It's why you partner with Grainger. Grainger helps you find the high quality and compliant products your business needs to inspect, detect and help correct issues. And the sweetest part is everyone gets a product that's as safe to eat as it is delicious. Call 1-800-GRAINGER Click grainger.com or just stop by Grainger for the ones who get it done.

[Joshua McNichols]

Here in Seattle, we're building the technologies of the future, from AI to clean energy.

[Monica Nicholsburg]

But we're also dealing with some of today's biggest challenges like the housing cris crisis and the skyrocketing cost of living.

[Joshua McNichols]

We're here to break it all down for you. I'm Joshua McNichols.

[Monica Nicholsburg]

And I'm Monica Nicholsburg. Join us on Booming, a weekly podcast from KUOW about the economic forces shaping our lives here in the Pacific Northwest.

[Joshua McNichols]

Listen on the KUOW app or wherever you get your podcasts.

[David Brancaccio]

It's been less than a month since President Trump took control of California's National Guard and later ordered active duty Marines to police parts of Southern California. And the US Bombing of nuclear facilities in Iraq is also a reminder to military families that deployments come with little notice. Marketplace's Nancy Marshall Genzer reports.

[Kayla]

Megan Byram's spouse just deployed on Memorial Day. He's a maintenance officer in the Air Force now in South Korea. He will be gone for a full year. Byram says the Air Force pays her husband's rent, but he has to buy new bedding and kitchen stuff and a car to get around. Anytime we deploy or we move, we can. Realistically, we need to set aside three to $5,000. The couple has three sons aged eight, 10 and 13. Childcare costs for the younger ones are going up. Byram's paying her 13 year old to watch his little brothers. He can make a good 80 to $100 a week. So Byram says her husband will get about $300 a month in extra pay during his deployment. The military offers different kinds of incentive pay, like for D assignments. Service members may also qualify for a family separation allowance. The Defense Department puts some effort into helping families prepare. They have to make plans for childcare and managing household expenses. Raleigh Smith Duttweiler remembers getting ready with her spouse for his last deployment about six years ago.

[Nancy Vandenhouten]

Make sure your wills are in check.

[Rima Reis]

Make sure that the bank knows that this guy is gone and can't repossess the car.

[Kayla]

But all that financial planning isn't going to do much for Kayla, another military spouse. She asked us to use just her first name because she's worried about repercussions in her work with military spouses. Her husband's aircraft carrier group left port late last month, bound for the Mediterranean. The deployment was planned before the US Attacked Iran, but its commander told reporters it's mobile and maneuverable, and he told families to prepare for a deployment of up to nine months.

[Megan Byram]

But we just don't know. Are they going with their original plan that they might have had before everything started happening in the world?

[Kayla]

Kayla says the uncertainty around this deployment makes it hard to plan financially. They have two sons under five. She expects to spend an extra $200 a month on babysitting or more. It's just hard to know for sure what a deployment is going to cost.

[Megan Byram]

Every spouse knows that when there's a deployment, Murphy's Law comes into full effect. You don't know what those expenses look like.

[Kayla]

Every single military spouse I spoke to for this story made one point, our families signed up for this. Our spouses weren't drafted. Here's Raleigh Smith Duttweiler.

[Rima Reis]

We did sign up knowing that things would be hard. We just don't usually expect them to be as hard as they are.

[Kayla]

Detwiler says military families are working families trying to make ends meet just like everybody else. NANCY I'm Nancy Marshall Genser for Marketplace.

[David Brancaccio]

And Holders of stocks in big banks had a bountiful Tuesday with the news that those extra payouts, known as dividends, would spike. Goldman Sachs dividends up 33%. Bank of America up 8%. Citibank and JPMorgan Chase both up 7%. This is in part because financial stress tests set up after the last financial crisis were made easier, allowing banks to disperse more of their profits. It's the Marketplace Morning report from APM American Public Media.

[Rima Reis]

Hey, everyone. I'm Rima Reis, and I'm excited to join Kimberly Adams on Make Me Smart. Together we'll unpack the day's news, whether it's a tariff switch up, the latest on Trump's immigration policy, or the future of clean energy. Join us each weekday so we can make sense of it all together, because none of us is as smart as all of us. Listen to Make Me Smart. Wherever you get your podcasts.