Marketplace Morning Report: "Even if the government reopens, what about all that economic data?"

Date: November 12, 2025
Host: David Brancaccio (Marketplace), with Nancy Marshall Genser and BBC’s Matt McGraw
Length: ~10 minutes

Episode Overview

This episode focuses on the continuing effects of the U.S. government shutdown—particularly on delayed economic data and government services—even as prospects for reopening improve. The episode also covers the end of the IRS Direct File tax pilot program, speculates on future free tax filing options, and provides an update from the UN climate summit in Brazil, emphasizing the role of subnational U.S. actors in global climate negotiations.

Key Discussion Points

1. Government Shutdown: Lingering Impacts on Benefits and Economic Data

Delayed Benefits and Paychecks

• The shutdown may end soon, but questions remain on when public assistance (like SNAP food stamps) and federal worker pay will actually resume ([01:00]).
• Quote:
  — "It remains unclear this morning exactly when SNAP food stamp benefits would start flowing again onto EBT cards as soon as the government reopens after a House vote. ... Payments would be authorized, but not instant."
  — David Brancaccio, [01:00]

Missing Economic Data

• The shutdown has prevented the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) from gathering crucial data, delaying standard reports:
  • September jobs data may come quickly after reopening.
  • October and November jobs reports will be significantly delayed; likely unavailable before mid to late December ([01:34], [01:59]).
• Quote:
  — "We could get the September jobs report fairly quickly once the government reopens, but there's a huge question mark over the October and November employment reports."
  — Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY, [01:34] — "We're likely to get some data over the course of the next few weeks, but it's unlikely that we get the actual November employment report before sometime in mid to late December."
  — Nancy Marshall Genser, [01:59]

Impact on The Federal Reserve

• The Federal Reserve's December policy meeting will occur without a complete economic picture, making data-driven decisions more complicated.

• The October labor and Consumer Price Index reports will also be partial due to survey disruptions ([02:12]).

• Quote:
  — "All these data delays are bad news for the Fed, ... Fed policymakers are highly data dependent and there have been conflicting signals from the economy as to the direction of travel of employment and inflation."
  — Nancy Marshall Genser & Gregory Daco, [02:37]

• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell clarified that a December rate cut was "not a foregone conclusion" ([02:47]).

2. IRS Shuts Down Direct File Program

Background and Features

• Until recently, Americans could file taxes for free online via two options:
  • “Free File”—a public-private partnership with commercial tax software, eligible mostly for lower incomes.
  • “Direct File”—a IRS-run portal for simple returns, piloted in the past two years ([03:29]).
• Direct File received positive user feedback for its clarity and speed (average completion under 30 minutes).

Why It Ended

• The Trump administration reduced Direct File staff by 80%, officially ending it last week.
• Republicans cited cost and pressure from the commercial tax preparation lobby as reasons, arguing more people could be served for less by outsourcing to commercial providers ([05:20], [05:28]).
• Quote:
  — "Some Republican lawmakers were looking at the cost...tens of millions of dollars and counting. ... Last year...Republican Senator Mike Crapo said Direct File was inefficient."
  — Nancy Marshall Genser, [05:20]

Long-term Prospects

• Even though Direct File ended, experts say it provides a model for future government or state-level initiatives.

• Quote:
  — "DirectFile is a model for states and it's a model for the federal government in the future, if we ever decide that we want to make government services easy again."
  — Vanessa Williamson, author and tax expert, [06:00]

• The Treasury Department intends to bolster and better promote “Free File” as an alternative ([06:08]).

3. Global Climate Summit—US Subnational Leaders Take the Stage

Brazil: UN Climate Summit

• The official U.S. federal delegation is absent, but ~100 American state and city officials (including California Governor Gavin Newsom) are present to underline American climate commitments at other governmental levels ([08:02]).
• International delegates welcome the U.S. states' contributions but remain cautious due to past U.S. withdrawals from climate deals.
• Quote:
  — "While the American politicians were welcomed, some delegates were a little bit wary, having seen the United States enter and leave various climate agreements over the past two decades."
  — Matt McGraw, BBC environment correspondent, [08:24] — "The rest of the world wasn't going to sit around and wait for them to come back."
  — Mohamed Adao, Kenyan climate talks participant, paraphrased, [08:24]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On delayed economic data:
  — "We're likely to get some data...but it's unlikely that we get the actual November employment report before sometime in mid to late December."
  — Nancy Marshall Genser, [01:59]

• On the future of free public tax filing:
  — "How long have we been talking about free public tax preparation? 80 years."
  — Gregory Daco, [05:44] — "DirectFile is a model for states and...the federal government in the future, if we ever decide that we want to make government services easy again."
  — Vanessa Williamson, [06:00]

• On climate diplomacy without the federal government:
  — "California's Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom came to the country cup to reassure participants that the US was still committed on climate at state level."
  — Matt McGraw, [08:24]

Important Timestamps

• [01:00] – Government shutdown status and benefit/paycheck delays
• [01:34] – Gregory Daco on delayed jobs data
• [01:59] – Nancy Marshall Genser on limited prospects for November jobs data
• [02:37] – Fed’s data-dependence and the consequences of missing reports
• [03:29] – IRS Direct File program origins and usage
• [05:20] – Congressional criticism and program costs
• [06:00] – Vanessa Williamson on the legacy of Direct File
• [08:02] – US state and local climate leaders at the UN summit in Brazil
• [08:24] – Matt McGraw on international reaction to US subnational climate initiatives

Conclusion

This episode underscores how, despite the end of a government shutdown, ripple effects like late benefits, missing data, and policy uncertainty linger. Listeners also receive a nuanced look at why accessible taxpayer services like Direct File face political and financial headwinds, and how domestic actors continue U.S. climate engagement despite Washington's absence from global meetings. The reporting tone is factual, measured, and pragmatic—providing listeners a concise, actionable update for their day.