Even if the government reopens, what about all that economic data?

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report: "Even if the government reopens, what about all that economic data?"

Date: November 12, 2025
Host: David Brancaccio (Marketplace), with Nancy Marshall Genser and BBC’s Matt McGraw
Length: ~10 minutes

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Episode Overview

This episode focuses on the continuing effects of the U.S. government shutdown—particularly on delayed economic data and government services—even as prospects for reopening improve. The episode also covers the end of the IRS Direct File tax pilot program, speculates on future free tax filing options, and provides an update from the UN climate summit in Brazil, emphasizing the role of subnational U.S. actors in global climate negotiations.

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Key Discussion Points

1. Government Shutdown: Lingering Impacts on Benefits and Economic Data

Delayed Benefits and Paychecks

• The shutdown may end soon, but questions remain on when public assistance (like SNAP food stamps) and federal worker pay will actually resume ([01:00]).
• Quote:
  — "It remains unclear this morning exactly when SNAP food stamp benefits would start flowing again onto EBT cards as soon as the government reopens after a House vote. ... Payments would be authorized, but not instant."
  — David Brancaccio, [01:00]

Missing Economic Data

• The shutdown has prevented the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) from gathering crucial data, delaying standard reports:
  • September jobs data may come quickly after reopening.
  • October and November jobs reports will be significantly delayed; likely unavailable before mid to late December ([01:34], [01:59]).
• Quote:
  — "We could get the September jobs report fairly quickly once the government reopens, but there's a huge question mark over the October and November employment reports."
  — Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY, [01:34] — "We're likely to get some data over the course of the next few weeks, but it's unlikely that we get the actual November employment report before sometime in mid to late December."
  — Nancy Marshall Genser, [01:59]

Impact on The Federal Reserve

• The Federal Reserve's December policy meeting will occur without a complete economic picture, making data-driven decisions more complicated.

• The October labor and Consumer Price Index reports will also be partial due to survey disruptions ([02:12]).

• Quote:
  — "All these data delays are bad news for the Fed, ... Fed policymakers are highly data dependent and there have been conflicting signals from the economy as to the direction of travel of employment and inflation."
  — Nancy Marshall Genser & Gregory Daco, [02:37]

• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell clarified that a December rate cut was "not a foregone conclusion" ([02:47]).

2. IRS Shuts Down Direct File Program

Background and Features

• Until recently, Americans could file taxes for free online via two options:
  • “Free File”—a public-private partnership with commercial tax software, eligible mostly for lower incomes.
  • “Direct File”—a IRS-run portal for simple returns, piloted in the past two years ([03:29]).
• Direct File received positive user feedback for its clarity and speed (average completion under 30 minutes).

Why It Ended

• The Trump administration reduced Direct File staff by 80%, officially ending it last week.
• Republicans cited cost and pressure from the commercial tax preparation lobby as reasons, arguing more people could be served for less by outsourcing to commercial providers ([05:20], [05:28]).
• Quote:
  — "Some Republican lawmakers were looking at the cost...tens of millions of dollars and counting. ... Last year...Republican Senator Mike Crapo said Direct File was inefficient."
  — Nancy Marshall Genser, [05:20]

Long-term Prospects

• Even though Direct File ended, experts say it provides a model for future government or state-level initiatives.

• Quote:
  — "DirectFile is a model for states and it's a model for the federal government in the future, if we ever decide that we want to make government services easy again."
  — Vanessa Williamson, author and tax expert, [06:00]

• The Treasury Department intends to bolster and better promote “Free File” as an alternative ([06:08]).

3. Global Climate Summit—US Subnational Leaders Take the Stage

Brazil: UN Climate Summit

• The official U.S. federal delegation is absent, but ~100 American state and city officials (including California Governor Gavin Newsom) are present to underline American climate commitments at other governmental levels ([08:02]).
• International delegates welcome the U.S. states' contributions but remain cautious due to past U.S. withdrawals from climate deals.
• Quote:
  — "While the American politicians were welcomed, some delegates were a little bit wary, having seen the United States enter and leave various climate agreements over the past two decades."
  — Matt McGraw, BBC environment correspondent, [08:24] — "The rest of the world wasn't going to sit around and wait for them to come back."
  — Mohamed Adao, Kenyan climate talks participant, paraphrased, [08:24]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On delayed economic data:
  — "We're likely to get some data...but it's unlikely that we get the actual November employment report before sometime in mid to late December."
  — Nancy Marshall Genser, [01:59]

• On the future of free public tax filing:
  — "How long have we been talking about free public tax preparation? 80 years."
  — Gregory Daco, [05:44] — "DirectFile is a model for states and...the federal government in the future, if we ever decide that we want to make government services easy again."
  — Vanessa Williamson, [06:00]

• On climate diplomacy without the federal government:
  — "California's Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom came to the country cup to reassure participants that the US was still committed on climate at state level."
  — Matt McGraw, [08:24]

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Important Timestamps

• [01:00] – Government shutdown status and benefit/paycheck delays
• [01:34] – Gregory Daco on delayed jobs data
• [01:59] – Nancy Marshall Genser on limited prospects for November jobs data
• [02:37] – Fed’s data-dependence and the consequences of missing reports
• [03:29] – IRS Direct File program origins and usage
• [05:20] – Congressional criticism and program costs
• [06:00] – Vanessa Williamson on the legacy of Direct File
• [08:02] – US state and local climate leaders at the UN summit in Brazil
• [08:24] – Matt McGraw on international reaction to US subnational climate initiatives

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Conclusion

This episode underscores how, despite the end of a government shutdown, ripple effects like late benefits, missing data, and policy uncertainty linger. Listeners also receive a nuanced look at why accessible taxpayer services like Direct File face political and financial headwinds, and how domestic actors continue U.S. climate engagement despite Washington's absence from global meetings. The reporting tone is factual, measured, and pragmatic—providing listeners a concise, actionable update for their day.

Transcript

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[Marketplace Host]

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[Nancy Marshall Genser]

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[David Brancaccio]

The government shutdown could end today, but when do people get paid? I'm David Brancaccio in Los Angeles. It remains unclear this morning exactly when SNAP food stamp benefits would start flowing again onto EBT cards as soon as the government reopens after a House vote. And presidential signature payments would be authorized, but not instant in states that haven't managed to keep some food stamps coming in the interim. We're also tracking when the paychecks of government work workers would start landing. And the Missing Economic Data Marketplace's Nancy Marshall Genser has that.

[Gregory Daco]

We could get the September jobs report fairly quickly once the government reopens, but there's a huge question mark over the October and November employment reports. The Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys households and businesses in the week. That includes the 12th day of the month for the jobs report. That didn't happen in October because the government was shut down, and it's not happening so far this week. Gregory Dacko is chief economist at eye.

[Nancy Marshall Genser]

We're likely to get some data over the course of the next few weeks, but it's unlikely that we get the actual November employment report before sometime in mid to late December.

[Gregory Daco]

The Federal Reserve's next meeting on interest rates is December 9th and 10th, and DowCo says we'll only get a partial picture of the October labor market because the federal workers who contact households to find out who's working and who's not were furloughed. So same thing for the October Consumer Price Index, which relies on federal employees who check prices at stores. All these data delays are bad news for the Fed, Dacko says, because we.

[Nancy Marshall Genser]

Know Fed policymakers are highly data dependent and there have been conflicting signals from the economy as to the direction of travel of employment and inflation.

[Gregory Daco]

At the Fed's interest rate meeting last month, Chair Jerome Powell said a December rate cut is not a foregone conclusion. I'm Nancy Marshall genser for for marketplace.

[David Brancaccio]

S&P futures are up 3. 10%. Nasdaq futures are up 4. 10%. Now we're also doing the uncomfortable math on President Trump's idea of paying off house loans not over 10, 15 or 30 years, but over 50 years. That'll be streamable from Marketplace online later as well. The IRS has ended the Direct File program, which lets some taxpayers do their annual returns for free using government software. Now the program is dead and the IRS is looking to deliver free access to tax filing by other means.

[Nancy Marshall Genser]

For the last couple of years and until a week ago, Americans had two options for filing their taxes for free online Direct File and Free File. So think about Free File as a public private partnership. Don Moynihan is professor of Public Policy at the University of Michigan. That Free File partnership has been around for a couple of decades. On one end is the irs. On the on the other, online tax preparation companies. They provide their services for free to some taxpayers with income restrictions. One of the limitations of Free File is that it's never really broadened its horizons to get more than a couple of percentage of the taxpaying population, even though most taxpayers are eligible to use it. Direct File started two years ago as a pilot program during the Biden administration. Daniel Werfel was IRS commissioner at the time. It was really to have a fuller menu of options for taxpayers with directfile. People with relatively simple returns file directly through an online portal run by the IRS. Answer some questions, input W2Info and it's done. This year, about 300,000 taxpayers used DirectFile. The taxpayers that used the system said it was really easy to use. It was clear, it was intuitive. Many of them finished the process within 30 minutes. At this point, you're probably wondering what the catch is. Well, some Republican lawmakers were looking at the cost of the Direct File program tens of millions of dollars and counting. And they also are hearing complaints from the lobby representing tax preparation companies. Last year during a hearing, Republican Senator Mike Crapo said Direct File was inefficient.

[David Brancaccio]

Were the IRS to use this year's.

[Podcast Host (Odoo Sponsor)]

Direct File spending to pay third party.

[David Brancaccio]

Providers to prepare and file returns instead.

[Podcast Host (Odoo Sponsor)]

Literally hundreds of times the number of taxpayers could file for free.

[Nancy Marshall Genser]

The die was cast earlier this year. When the Trump administration reduced the staff working on direct file by 80% last week, it officially killed the program.

[Gregory Daco]

How long have we been talking about free public tax preparation? 80 years.

[Nancy Marshall Genser]

Vanessa Williamson wrote a new book on U.S. tax history. It's called the Price of Democracy. Williamson says even though DirectFile did not survive, it still laid important groundwork.

[Gregory Daco]

DirectFile is a model for states and it's a model for the federal government in the future, if we ever decide that we want to make government services easy again.

[Nancy Marshall Genser]

In a report to Congress, the Treasury Department said, while it's killing Direct File, it will boost Free File and instead including by increasing its promotion to taxpayers. I'm NovaSafo for Marketplace.

[Podcast Host (Odoo Sponsor)]

This podcast is supported by Odoo. Some say Odoo business management software is like fertilizer for businesses because the simple, efficient software promotes growth. Others say Odoo is like a magic beanstalk because it scales with you and is magically affordable. And some describe Odoo's programs for manufacturing, accounting, and more as building blocks for creating a custom software suite. So Odoo is Fertilizer Magic Beanstalk building blocks for business Odoo exactly what businesses need. Sign [e-mail] that's o d o o.com.

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[David Brancaccio]

Brazil for the big UN climate summit. While the US has not sent an official delegation, dozens of state and local officials are now in the city of Belem. This includes California Governor Gavin Newsom, who presides over a state with a population the size of Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Finland and belgium combined. The BBC's environment correspondent Matt McGraw reports.

[Marketplace Host]

To warm applause in a hot and humid pavilion. California's Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom came to the country cup to reassure participants that the US was still committed on climate at state level. Governor Newsom wasn't alone. Around 100 state and city officials from different parts of the United States came to show their commitment to tackling rising temperatures. While the American politicians were welcomed, some delegates were a little bit wary, having seen the United States enter and leave various climate agreements over the past two decades. Longtime climate talks participant Mohamed Adao from Kenya said that while he understood that many people in the US Were still committed on climate, the rest of the world wasn't going to sit around and wait for them to come back.

[David Brancaccio]

Matt McGraw at the Global Climate Meeting in Belem, Brazil. In Los Angeles, I'm David Brancaccio. This is the Marketplace Morning Report from APM American Public Media.

[Nancy Marshall Genser]

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