Podcast Summary: Marketplace Morning Report

Episode: Finally, clues about the job market
Date: November 20, 2025
Host: Sabri Benishore (in for David Brancaccio)
Duration: ~10 minutes

Overview

This episode of the Marketplace Morning Report dives into fresh insights on the U.S. job market based on official data delayed by a government shutdown. It also covers Walmart's strong quarterly performance, consumer sentiment versus spending patterns, the significant drop in new international students at U.S. colleges, and the economic implications of these trends.

Main Discussion Points & Insights

1. Latest Jobs Data — Finally Arrives (01:11)

• Background: After a 1.5-month delay due to a government shutdown, the Department of Labor has released September's employment numbers.
• Key Numbers:
  • 119,000 jobs gained in September 2025.
  • Unemployment rate rises for the third consecutive month, up to 4.4%.
  • Revisions for July and August indicate job losses in August.
• Guest: Diane Swonk, Chief Economist at KPMG.

Key Insights

• Participation Bump: Both college grads and teens increased job-seeking activity, but not all found jobs.
  • "We did see a big pickup in college grads looking for jobs, and teens looking for jobs." – Diane Swonk [02:45]
• Teen Participation Likely Temporary: The spike in teen job-seeking could be a seasonal blip due to back-to-school timing.
  • "That bump up in teenage participation could be a bit of a one month phenomena." – Diane Swonk [03:10]
• Fed’s Policy Dilemma: Data is too stale to guide immediate Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates.
  • "It doesn't help them lower interest rates, but it isn't enough data because it is prior to the shutdown." – Diane Swonk [03:35]
  • Upcoming Delays: Some critical data for October and November won’t be available before the Fed meets on December 10th.
• Rate Cut Odds: Only three Fed members favor a December rate cut, most see insufficient data for a move.
  • "The Fed's going to hold tight in December and there is only three members of the Fed right now that have shown a strong preference for cutting." – Diane Swonk [04:30]

2. Walmart Defies Expectations (05:00)

• Reporter: Nancy Marshall-Genser

Key Insights

• Earnings Jump: Walmart’s Q3 revenue hit nearly $180 billion, up 5.8% year-over-year.
• Upgraded Outlook: Full-year sales now expected to rise by about 5%.
• E-commerce Growth: 27% increase globally in online sales.
• AI Partnership: Walmart leverages OpenAI to let ChatGPT users shop, restock, and meal-plan via chat; ChatGPT will personalize shopping predictions.
  • "Customers will be able to shop at Walmart by chatting and buy Walmart products in the ChatGPT app using its instant checkout." – Nancy Marshall Genser [05:41]

3. Consumer Sentiment vs. Behavior (07:29)

• Reporter: Mitchell Hartman

Key Insights

• Low Sentiment: Consumer confidence surveys show attitudes near decade-lows; more data is due from the University of Michigan tomorrow.
• Spending Stays Strong: Despite concerns, spending continues.
  • LendingTree Survey: 3 out of 4 consumers feel the economy makes covering bills harder—major pain points: tariffs, inflation, high interest rates, debt, and job worries.
• Job Market Paradox: Even with low unemployment, those losing jobs are struggling to find new ones.
  • "Even though the unemployment rate is low, those folks who have lost a job are taking a really long time to find the next one." – Matt Schultz, LendingTree [08:00]
• Mixed Signals: While consumers report plans to cut back on holiday gifts, discretionary purchases (toys, vacations, video games) remain popular.
  • "The American consumer. Go figure." – Mitchell Hartman [09:15]

4. International Student Enrollment Plummets (09:28)

• Reporter: Samantha Fields

Key Insights

• Biggest Decline Since Pandemic: New international student enrollment drops by 17% in fall 2025.
  • "A 17% drop in new international students in one semester is a lot. That is the largest decline that we've seen outside of the pandemic in a single year." – Clay Harmon, AIRSEA [09:45]
• Policy Causes: Visa processing pauses, stricter vetting (including social media checks), and a 19-country travel ban cited as main drivers.
• Economic Ripple:
  • $1.1 billion lost from the drop this fall alone.
  • More than 20,000 jobs lost or at risk; every three international students support one US job.
  • "For every three international students, one US job is created and supported." – Fonta Ave, NAFSA [11:20]
• Smaller Schools Hit Hardest: Specialized, religious, and regional colleges are facing existential threats if trend continues.
  • Example: Edmonds College in Washington faces a 25% foreign student drop—potential $1 million in lost revenue.
• Looking Ahead: Further declines in 2026 could mark a crisis point.
  • "2026 is really going to be the litmus test for us, right? Because then people would have had an entire year to make the decision about am I going to apply to US Universities or not?" – Fonta Ave [12:50]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "That bump up in teenage participation could be a bit of a one month phenomena." – Diane Swonk [03:10]
• "It doesn't help them lower interest rates, but it isn't enough data because it is prior to the shutdown." – Diane Swonk [03:35]
• "The remainder [of the Fed] are very hesitant to cut in the month of December." – Diane Swonk [04:40]
• "Customers will be able to shop at Walmart by chatting and buy Walmart products in the ChatGPT app using its instant checkout." – Nancy Marshall Genser [05:41]
• "Even though the unemployment rate is low, those folks who have lost a job are taking a really long time to find the next one." – Matt Schultz, LendingTree [08:00]
• "For every three international students, one US job is created and supported." – Fonta Ave, NAFSA [11:20]
• "2026 is really going to be the litmus test for us, right?" – Fonta Ave [12:50]
• "The American consumer. Go figure." – Mitchell Hartman [09:15]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:55 – Start of core episode, labor market data intro
• 01:11 – Jobs report details and analysis with Diane Swonk
• 05:00 – Walmart financial results and AI investment
• 07:29 – Consumer sentiment and spending paradox
• 09:28 – International student enrollment drop and impact

Conclusion

This episode provides long-awaited labor market data, revealing a job market that's cooling but still complex, with unique challenges for at-risk job-seekers and mixed messages for policymakers. Walmart's performance highlights retail strength and tech innovation, while consumer surveys show a perplexing resilience in spending. Finally, sharp declines in international student numbers threaten the finances of educational institutions and local economies, with policy uncertainty and tightening immigration driving the story.

Listeners come away with: a timely snapshot of the U.S. economy's mixed signals, the complex interplay between policy and real-world impacts, and anticipation for how the coming months—especially 2026—will shape longer-term trends.