Gas prices are lower, but will that stick around in 2026?

Summary

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Marketplace Morning Report – January 1, 2026

Episode Theme:
A quick, insightful rundown of pressing economic news to start the year—highlighting falling gas prices and their outlook, the aftershocks in the electric vehicle (EV) market following expiring incentives, and a hopeful look at the revival of analog photo booths as a new museum opens in NYC.

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1. Gas Prices: Lower for Now, but Will It Last?

[01:32–03:33]

Key Points:

• Cheapest December at the pump since 2020:
  Crude oil overproduction has pushed prices down—crude oil prices in 2025 fell 20% lower compared to prior years.
• 2026 Gas Price Outlook:
  Gas prices are expected to stay low in the near term, but experts warn that the cycle of prices means they will eventually rise again.

Insights & Quotes:

• Doug Terrison (Marketplace):
  “U.S. oil companies may not be happy about low prices, but Americans at the pump should be in luck.” [02:04]
• Ed Herz (University of Houston):
  “In the new year, consumers should expect gasoline prices to be 10 to 15% lower in 2026 than they were in 2025.” [02:11]
  • This drop is expected to support economic growth and boost consumer spending.
  • “That’s something we all see, you know, at least once a week. And it’s something that comes out of our pocket and goes into the gasoline pump.” [02:36]
• Cycle of Oil Prices:
  “The cure for low oil prices is low oil prices, because low prices tend to increase the demand for crude while encouraging oil companies to cut back production.” [03:00, Doug Terrison quoting industry wisdom]
• Bottom Line:
  “After we get through this lower price period in 2026, rest assured your gas prices will start to go back up again.” [03:19, Doug Terrison]

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2. Electric Vehicles and the End of Federal Incentives

[03:33–04:31]

Key Points:

• End of Federal EV Tax Credits:
  President Trump’s new tax and spending law cut federal tax credits for EVs, a program dating from 2008 and expanded under Biden. The credits expired in September 2025.
• Immediate Impact:
  EV sales dropped sharply post-incentive—monthly figures fell almost 50% from September to October.
• “Pull Forward” Effect:
  Many consumers bought EVs earlier in 2025 to capitalize on the expiring credit.

Insights & Quotes:

• Henriette (Marketplace):
  “Sales maybe unsurprisingly, really fell off once there was no longer this incentive for consumers. Monthly EV sales fell by nearly 50% in October from September, and they've sort of stayed at that level in November.” [03:55]
  • She notes classic “pull forward” behavior: “People who might have bought an EV, say around now...did that instead in July or August when this tax credit was still on the books.” [04:12]

Memorable Moment:
Encouragement for listeners to hear more on Marketplace Tech: “You can hear that full conversation on our Marketplace tech program. It’s available online at marketplace.org.” [04:31]

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3. The Photo Booth Revival: New York’s Newest Museum

[05:17–08:21]

Key Points:

• A new business and museum:
  Photo booth technician Brianna Conley Saxon opens “Auto Photo,” a gallery and museum in Manhattan dedicated to the history and art of analog photo booths.
• From Side Project to Mission:
  Brianna started restoring booths after a thrift store find in 2009; over the years, she’s collected and maintained many, turning passion into preservation.
• Pandemic Gamble:
  Betting that people would crave tangible, in-person memories post-pandemic, she expanded during COVID, believing demand for analog prints would rebound.

Insights & Quotes:

• Brianna Conley Saxon:
  “The more I learned about the analog booths, it just seemed like it was a dying art… I kind of got fixated on trying to buy as many booths as I could.” [06:15]
  • On opening a museum: “Having those actual prints in their hands, I gambled that people would, once the world opened back up, want to take photos with their loved ones and have those memories to hold onto forever.” [07:09]
  • “This is the centennial. It’s 100 years since the invention. So like, yeah, I think people do want to learn.” [08:03]
• Significance:
  An artistic movement and cultural appreciation for analog technology are resurging, especially among younger generations influenced by TikTok and community word of mouth.

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4. Quick Economic Note: Minimum Wage Increases

[08:21–End]

Key Point:

• Minimum wages are rising in 19 states and 47 cities and counties this year, affecting over 8 million workers—set to see bigger paychecks in 2026 (according to the Economic Policy Institute).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “In the new year, consumers should expect gasoline prices to be 10 to 15% lower in 2026 than they were in 2025.”
  — Ed Herz, [02:11]

• “The cure for low oil prices is low oil prices.”
  — Industry wisdom, echoed by Doug Terrison and Ed Herz, [03:00]

• “Monthly EV sales fell by nearly 50% in October from September, and they've sort of stayed at that level in November.”
  — Henriette, [03:55]

• “Having those actual prints in their hands, I gambled that people would, once the world opened back up, want to take photos with their loved ones and have those memories to hold onto forever.”
  — Brianna Conley Saxon, [07:09]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:32] Gas Price Overview & 2026 Outlook
• [03:33] Federal EV Incentives End & Sales Impact
• [05:17] Photo Booth Museum Story
• [08:21] Minimum Wage Increases Mention

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This Marketplace Morning Report episode delivers brisk, focused updates on pivotal consumer topics—lower gas prices and the real-world ripple effects of policy changes in energy and transportation, plus a charming feature on analog culture making a comeback. Perfect for listeners wanting news that blends economic context with compelling human stories.

Transcript

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[Novas Safo]

Gas prices, electric vehicles, and the Year Ahead For Marketplace, I'm Novas Safo in for David Brancaccio. We just ended the cheapest December at the gas pump since 2020, according to AAA. That's because the world is producing more crude oil than it needs. Crude oil prices in 2025 fell 20% lower. Gas prices are expected to hold over in the year ahead, barring any disasters or disruptive geopolitical conflicts. Marketplace's Elizabeth Troval has more on what consumers can expect.

[Doug Terrison]

U.S. oil companies may not be happy about low prices, but Americans at the pump should be in luck.

[Ed Herz]

In the new year, consumers should expect gasoline prices to be 10 to 15% lower in 2026 than they were in 2025.

[Doug Terrison]

That's author and energy expert Doug Terrison.

[Ed Herz]

And that should be constructive for economic growth and consumer spending and consumer behavior.

[Doug Terrison]

Overall, because US Consumers are particularly sensitive to gasoline prices, says Ed Herz with the University of Houston.

[Ed Herz]

That's something we all see, you know, at least once a week. And it's something that comes out of our pocket and goes into the gasoline pump.

[Doug Terrison]

Unlike, say, our electricity bill, which may get automatically paid in the dead of night. But it's important to remember what goes down must come up again. These things are cyclical because the cure.

[Ed Herz]

For low oil prices is low oil.

[Doug Terrison]

Prices, because low prices tend to increase the demand for crude while encouraging oil companies to cut back production. Terracin again.

[Ed Herz]

Once supply and demand start to recalibrate, then inventories will start to recalibrate and that's what's really going to be the.

[Doug Terrison]

Driver of price, terasen says. After we get through this lower price period in 2026, rest assured your gas prices will start to go back up again. I'm Elizabeth Trovall for Marketplace.

[Novas Safo]

Turning to electric vehicles. 2025 was a bumpy road. President Trump's tax and spending law cut federal tax credits for electric vehicles. Those incentives had been on the books form since 2008 and were expanded during the Biden administration. They expired at the end of September. Marketplace's Henriette has more on the consequences for the EV market.

[Henriette]

So sales maybe unsurprisingly, really fell off once there was no longer this incentive for consumers. Monthly EV sales fell by nearly 50% in October from September, and they've sort of stayed at that level in November. This is according to Cox Automotive. We one reason for this, you know, is those the end of those incentives created sort of a classic pull forward situation. So you know, people who might have bought an EV, say around now, around the holidays or in early 2026, they did that instead in July or August when this tax credit was still on the books.

[Novas Safo]

You can hear that full conversation on our Marketplace tech program. It's available [e-mail] Stock and bond markets in the US are closed today for the holiday. Trading resumes today, tomorrow. So how's your new Year so far? To help kick it off, here's the story of a new business that's also a new museum here in New York City. It's dedicated to the history and art of a vintage piece of technology. The photo booth.

[Brianna Conley Saxon]

I'm Brianna Conley Saxon and I'm a photo booth technician. I restore photo booths and keep them running. And I just opened a photo booth gallery and museum called Auto photo in Lower east side Manhattan. The first photo we took is about to go through the delivery unit and so it feeds into the strip carrier and then goes through the tiny dark room, basically. In 2009 I had just graduated from the Brooks Institute of Photography and one day I found a photo booth at a thrift store in Alabama for 200 bucks and was basically like, I'm going To figure this out one way or another. It kind of was just like a side business passion project, if you will. And then, I don't know, the more I learned about the analog boost, it just seemed like it was a dying art. A lot of them were being sold to, like, celebrities or collectors where they weren't going to probably do the maintenance and upkeep to keep the booth running. And so I kind of got fixated on trying to buy as many booths as I could. And basically any money I've ever made from the photo booths has just gone back into the photo booths. And So I guess 10 years later, that adds up. And now I have a lot of booths. In 2020, basically 2019, I kind of decided to go all in. And I did take this gamble during Pandemic. As a photographer, I just had this feeling that once the world opened back up again, people were going to cherish those moments with their loved ones again because we had been kind of locked up for a while. And like, I think it made people realize how important the tangible is. And so having those actual prints in their hands, I gambled that people would, once the world opened back up, would want to take photos with their loved ones and have those memories to hold onto forever. I think between that and social media like TikTok and our community getting stronger and more like, word spreading about this dying art, it really did in the last year to really popularize again. And so honestly, this is like in the last year, the first time I've ever felt like, oh, okay, we're good. The art's not dying. Like, people care again. I'd say the last 10 years I've been like, placing booths and teaching people. I feel like most people honestly didn't even know the difference if it was digital or analog when it was coming out. And like, I get texts all the time like, where's my photos? And then I'll check the camera. And they just haven't waited like the three minutes for it to develop, just things like that. And so I wanted to create this museum and, and gallery to help people. Now that it is kind of popularizing, I want people to understand why it takes three minutes and the history behind it. Like, it's crazy. This is the centennial. It's 100 years since the invention. So like, yeah, I think people do want to learn. And so making a space for them to even walk away with just one or two facts, then I feel like I've done my job.

[Novas Safo]

That was Brianna Conley Saxon of Autophoto in New York. City. And finally, with the new year, minimum wage increases are kicking in in 19 states and 47 cities and counties. According to the Economic Policy institute, more than 8 million workers will see bigger paychecks. I'm Novosafo with the Marketplace Morning Report from apm, American Public Media.