Marketplace Morning Report

Episode: Homebuyers and sellers on the sidelines
Date: September 19, 2025
Host: David Brancaccio

Episode Overview

This episode examines the current state of the U.S. housing market—why both homebuyers and sellers are sitting on the sidelines as economic uncertainty and high mortgage rates persist. The show also features an in-depth conversation with Harvard economist Jason Furman about the structural changes impacting the job market, including the effects of tightened immigration policy, slowed hiring, and why cutting interest rates may no longer be the cure-all for soft job growth.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Housing Market: Both Buyers and Sellers Stalling

[01:30–03:10]

• New Listings Drop:

  • In August, there were 7% fewer new home listings compared to July, per Zillow.
  • Homes are lingering longer on the market; the seasonal slowdown started earlier than usual this year.

• Inventory Trends:

  • Inventory has risen year-over-year but is falling month-to-month.
    • Chen Zhao (Redfin): “Inventory is up from a year ago, but the last few months it's been falling.” [02:11]

• New Home Construction Down:

  • Single-family home construction is declining due to higher construction costs and market uncertainty (e.g., tariffs, inflation, job market doubts).

• Home Prices & Affordability:

  • Home prices are appreciating slower than inflation and wage growth, making housing marginally more affordable.
    • Chen Zhao: “Home prices are appreciating slower than inflation or wage growth. There is slowly more affordability.” [02:39]

• Buyer Hesitation:

  • Despite mortgage rates dipping recently, many prospective buyers are waiting on the sidelines, hoping for better deals.
    • Chen Zhao: “You don't want to catch a falling knife. So they're waiting for prices to come down more, they're waiting for rates to come down more. And there's no guarantee that either of those things will happen.” [02:53]

• Seller Reluctance:

  • Many would-be sellers are holding out, not wanting to list their homes at what they see as unsatisfactory prices.
    • Chen Zhao: “Because they can't get the prices they want, they're just saying, well, I'm just going to not sell.” [03:05]

2. Is Meager Job Growth the New Normal?

[04:31–08:37]

The New Dynamics of the Labor Market

• Slowing Job Creation:

  • The rate of job creation is slowing sharply:
    • 2023: ~200,000 jobs/month
    • 2024: ~100,000 jobs/month
    • 2025 (this year): ~50,000 jobs/month
    • Jason Furman: “If you look, in 2023, we were creating about 200,000 jobs per month. In 2024, it was about 100,000 jobs per month. And this year, it's been about 50,000 jobs per month.” [05:29]

• Unemployment Rate:

  • Despite the hiring slowdown, unemployment is rising only very gradually, suggesting that the underlying issue is a smaller labor force, not weakening demand.

• Role of Immigration:

  • The biggest factor is a significant reduction in immigration, paired with an aging population and low birth rate.
    • Furman: “The biggest driver of the slowdown in job growth, is you just don't need as many jobs per month as you used to. And the reason for that is we just have a lot fewer immigrants coming into the country.” [05:29]
    • “Were it not for an inflow of immigrants, we would probably have zero or even negative job growth.” [06:20]

• Fiscal Implications:

  • Fewer workers mean fewer people to support Social Security and public finances, potentially requiring higher taxes, benefit cuts, or more borrowing.
    • Furman: “Were it not for immigrants, it would be very few workers supporting each Social Security beneficiary, and we'd have to either have much higher taxes than we have, we'd need to cut Social Security benefits, or we'd need to borrow even more.” [06:59]

• Fed Rate Cuts Losing Effectiveness:

  • Lowering interest rates may no longer meaningfully boost the job market if the worker supply is fundamentally limited.
    • Brancaccio: “What if we entered an era where the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates might not boost the job market much?” [04:31]
    • Furman: “The biggest reason jobs have slowed down is something that no interest rate change can affect.” [07:30]

Path Forward on Immigration Policy

• Call for Nuance and Legal Pathways:
  • Furman advocates for a balance: secure borders, but legal pathways for needed workers and a path to citizenship.
    • Furman: “It is totally reasonable to say we’re going to have a secure border. ... But I’d also like us to admit that we do need workers from abroad. ... Legally allow more people in, give a path to citizenship for people who are here, and, yeah, respect and tighten that border.” [08:01]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Housing Market:

  • Chen Zhao (Redfin): “You don’t want to catch a falling knife. So they’re waiting for prices to come down more, they’re waiting for rates to come down more. And there’s no guarantee that either of those things will happen.” [02:53]
  • Mitchell Hartman (Marketplace): “A difficult market to navigate on both sides of the buy-sell equation.” [03:10]

• On Labor Market & Immigration:

  • Jason Furman (Harvard economist):
    • “The biggest reason jobs have slowed down is something that no interest rate change can affect.” [07:30]
    • “Legally allow more people in, give a path to citizenship for people who are here, and, yeah, respect and tighten that border.” [08:01]
  • David Brancaccio (Host): “If the number of workers isn't rising reasonably quickly, you don't have enough people paying taxes to pay for our way of life.” [06:50]

Timeline of Key Segments

| Timestamp | Segment | Speaker(s) | |-----------|-------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------| | 01:30 | Introduction to sluggish housing market | David Brancaccio | | 02:00 | Housing listing and inventory analysis | Mitchell Hartman, Chen Zhao | | 02:16 | Construction and uncertainty | Robert Dietz, Jason Furman | | 02:39 | Home price and mortgage rate trends | Chen Zhao | | 02:53 | Buyer and seller hesitance | Chen Zhao | | 03:10 | Market navigation summary | Mitchell Hartman | | 04:31 | Labor market structure & interest rates | David Brancaccio, Jason Furman | | 05:29 | Job growth data and labor force changes | Jason Furman | | 06:20 | Economic/fiscal implications of migration | Jason Furman | | 07:30 | Why interest rate cuts aren’t working | Jason Furman | | 08:01 | Immigration policy recommendations | Jason Furman |

Closing Thoughts

This episode reveals two parallel stories in the American economy: a largely stalled housing market due to uncertainty and affordability concerns, and a labor market whose meager growth may be the result of deeper demographic and policy shifts—especially around immigration. The discussion with Jason Furman underscores how changes to the flow of workers into the country could have lasting, profound impacts on growth and fiscal stability, out of reach of traditional policy levers like interest rates.