Homebuyers and sellers on the sidelines

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report

Episode: Homebuyers and sellers on the sidelines
Date: September 19, 2025
Host: David Brancaccio

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Episode Overview

This episode examines the current state of the U.S. housing market—why both homebuyers and sellers are sitting on the sidelines as economic uncertainty and high mortgage rates persist. The show also features an in-depth conversation with Harvard economist Jason Furman about the structural changes impacting the job market, including the effects of tightened immigration policy, slowed hiring, and why cutting interest rates may no longer be the cure-all for soft job growth.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Housing Market: Both Buyers and Sellers Stalling

[01:30–03:10]

• New Listings Drop:

  • In August, there were 7% fewer new home listings compared to July, per Zillow.
  • Homes are lingering longer on the market; the seasonal slowdown started earlier than usual this year.

• Inventory Trends:

  • Inventory has risen year-over-year but is falling month-to-month.
    • Chen Zhao (Redfin): “Inventory is up from a year ago, but the last few months it's been falling.” [02:11]

• New Home Construction Down:

  • Single-family home construction is declining due to higher construction costs and market uncertainty (e.g., tariffs, inflation, job market doubts).

• Home Prices & Affordability:

  • Home prices are appreciating slower than inflation and wage growth, making housing marginally more affordable.
    • Chen Zhao: “Home prices are appreciating slower than inflation or wage growth. There is slowly more affordability.” [02:39]

• Buyer Hesitation:

  • Despite mortgage rates dipping recently, many prospective buyers are waiting on the sidelines, hoping for better deals.
    • Chen Zhao: “You don't want to catch a falling knife. So they're waiting for prices to come down more, they're waiting for rates to come down more. And there's no guarantee that either of those things will happen.” [02:53]

• Seller Reluctance:

  • Many would-be sellers are holding out, not wanting to list their homes at what they see as unsatisfactory prices.
    • Chen Zhao: “Because they can't get the prices they want, they're just saying, well, I'm just going to not sell.” [03:05]

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2. Is Meager Job Growth the New Normal?

[04:31–08:37]

The New Dynamics of the Labor Market

• Slowing Job Creation:

  • The rate of job creation is slowing sharply:
    • 2023: ~200,000 jobs/month
    • 2024: ~100,000 jobs/month
    • 2025 (this year): ~50,000 jobs/month
    • Jason Furman: “If you look, in 2023, we were creating about 200,000 jobs per month. In 2024, it was about 100,000 jobs per month. And this year, it's been about 50,000 jobs per month.” [05:29]

• Unemployment Rate:

  • Despite the hiring slowdown, unemployment is rising only very gradually, suggesting that the underlying issue is a smaller labor force, not weakening demand.

• Role of Immigration:

  • The biggest factor is a significant reduction in immigration, paired with an aging population and low birth rate.
    • Furman: “The biggest driver of the slowdown in job growth, is you just don't need as many jobs per month as you used to. And the reason for that is we just have a lot fewer immigrants coming into the country.” [05:29]
    • “Were it not for an inflow of immigrants, we would probably have zero or even negative job growth.” [06:20]

• Fiscal Implications:

  • Fewer workers mean fewer people to support Social Security and public finances, potentially requiring higher taxes, benefit cuts, or more borrowing.
    • Furman: “Were it not for immigrants, it would be very few workers supporting each Social Security beneficiary, and we'd have to either have much higher taxes than we have, we'd need to cut Social Security benefits, or we'd need to borrow even more.” [06:59]

• Fed Rate Cuts Losing Effectiveness:

  • Lowering interest rates may no longer meaningfully boost the job market if the worker supply is fundamentally limited.
    • Brancaccio: “What if we entered an era where the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates might not boost the job market much?” [04:31]
    • Furman: “The biggest reason jobs have slowed down is something that no interest rate change can affect.” [07:30]

Path Forward on Immigration Policy

• Call for Nuance and Legal Pathways:
  • Furman advocates for a balance: secure borders, but legal pathways for needed workers and a path to citizenship.
    • Furman: “It is totally reasonable to say we’re going to have a secure border. ... But I’d also like us to admit that we do need workers from abroad. ... Legally allow more people in, give a path to citizenship for people who are here, and, yeah, respect and tighten that border.” [08:01]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Housing Market:

  • Chen Zhao (Redfin): “You don’t want to catch a falling knife. So they’re waiting for prices to come down more, they’re waiting for rates to come down more. And there’s no guarantee that either of those things will happen.” [02:53]
  • Mitchell Hartman (Marketplace): “A difficult market to navigate on both sides of the buy-sell equation.” [03:10]

• On Labor Market & Immigration:

  • Jason Furman (Harvard economist):
    • “The biggest reason jobs have slowed down is something that no interest rate change can affect.” [07:30]
    • “Legally allow more people in, give a path to citizenship for people who are here, and, yeah, respect and tighten that border.” [08:01]
  • David Brancaccio (Host): “If the number of workers isn't rising reasonably quickly, you don't have enough people paying taxes to pay for our way of life.” [06:50]

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Timeline of Key Segments

| Timestamp | Segment | Speaker(s) | |-----------|-------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------| | 01:30 | Introduction to sluggish housing market | David Brancaccio | | 02:00 | Housing listing and inventory analysis | Mitchell Hartman, Chen Zhao | | 02:16 | Construction and uncertainty | Robert Dietz, Jason Furman | | 02:39 | Home price and mortgage rate trends | Chen Zhao | | 02:53 | Buyer and seller hesitance | Chen Zhao | | 03:10 | Market navigation summary | Mitchell Hartman | | 04:31 | Labor market structure & interest rates | David Brancaccio, Jason Furman | | 05:29 | Job growth data and labor force changes | Jason Furman | | 06:20 | Economic/fiscal implications of migration | Jason Furman | | 07:30 | Why interest rate cuts aren’t working | Jason Furman | | 08:01 | Immigration policy recommendations | Jason Furman |

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Closing Thoughts

This episode reveals two parallel stories in the American economy: a largely stalled housing market due to uncertainty and affordability concerns, and a labor market whose meager growth may be the result of deeper demographic and policy shifts—especially around immigration. The discussion with Jason Furman underscores how changes to the flow of workers into the country could have lasting, profound impacts on growth and fiscal stability, out of reach of traditional policy levers like interest rates.

Transcript

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[David Brancaccio]

Is meager hiring in America Here to stay? I'm David Brancaccio in Los Angeles. First Whether it's economic uncertainty or the cost of home loans that never seem to come down much. But the fact is, a lot of people decided late this summer was not the time to put their house up for sale. Zillow finds that new listings fell sharply in August 7% fewer new listings compared to July, and homes are staying on the market long. Marketplace's Mitchell Hartman now takes a look at prospects for autumn.

[Mitchell Hartman]

There's usually a slowdown in listings in the fall. Fewer people want to move with kids in school and the weather turning. But this year the trend started early, says Chen Zhao at Redfin.

[Emily Hanford]

Inventory is up from a year ago, but the last few months it's been falling.

[Mitchell Hartman]

The supply of new homes has been anemic as well, says Robert Dietz at the national association of Home Builders single.

[Jason Furman]

Family construction is going to be down this year. You still have rising construction costs. And then there's uncertainty among home buyers.

[Mitchell Hartman]

About tariffs, inflation and the worsening job market. Buyers are getting some good news, says Chen Zhao.

[Emily Hanford]

Home prices are appreciating slower than inflation or wage growth. There is slowly more affordability.

[Mitchell Hartman]

Mortgage rates have also come down, but Zhao says a lot of would be buyers are sitting on the sidelines.

[Emily Hanford]

You don't want to catch a falling knife. So they're waiting for prices to come down more, they're waiting for rates to come down more. And there's no guarantee that either of those things will happen.

[Mitchell Hartman]

Sellers, meanwhile, are also holding back, you.

[Emily Hanford]

Know, because they can't get the prices they want. They're just saying, well, I'm just going to not sell them a difficult market.

[Mitchell Hartman]

To navigate on both sides of the buy sell equation. I'm Mitchell Hartman for MarketPL.

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[David Brancaccio]

I once saw a machine in the bowels of the London School of Economics. Using valves, pipes and water gauges, it attempted to simulate basic economics feed in lower interest rates from this central bank tank over here and up goes this water column over there representing hiring and possibly raising a needle for inflation. But what if we entered an era where the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates might not boost the job market much. It's about strict immigration policy and the effect on growth. Harvard economist Jason Furman has been thinking about these trade offs. Furman was chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Obama. Jason, welcome.

[Jason Furman]

Good to be with you.

[David Brancaccio]

You are concerned there's something going on that could do two things get us stuck in slow job growth month after month, and at the same time, make it so that the Fed lowering interest rates won't really help explain what your concern is.

[Jason Furman]

Yeah, so if You look, in 2023, we were creating about 200,000 jobs per month. In 2024, it was about 100,000 jobs per month. And this year, it's been about 50,000 jobs per month. But even though we've had this big slowdown in job growth, the unemployment rate is only rising very, very gradually. So what that tells me is that the biggest change that's going on, the biggest driver of the slowdown in job growth, is you just don't need as many jobs per month as you used to. And the reason for that is we just have a lot fewer immigrants coming into the country.

[David Brancaccio]

So immigration policy may be at play. And if that's here to stay for the coming few years at least, you think that will weigh down job creation.

[Jason Furman]

Month after month with an aging population, where people are retiring, where the birth rate is not sufficient for a growing population, Were it not for an inflow of immigrants, we would probably have zero or even negative job growth. With that, we'd have slower economic growth. We'd have bigger fiscal problems, at least at the federal level. And we've avoided all of that historically by having a large stream of immigrants, immigrants who work at a high rate as well.

[David Brancaccio]

If the number of workers isn't rising reasonably quickly. You don't have enough people paying taxes to pay for our way of life.

[Jason Furman]

Yeah. Were it not for immigrants, it would be very few workers supporting each Social Security beneficiary, and we'd have to either have much higher taxes than we have, we'd need to cut Social Security benefits, or we'd need to borrow even more.

[David Brancaccio]

Well, that would be tragically ironic if the calls, the vivid calls from President Trump for the central bank to lower interest rates just wouldn't work to help boost the job market. Because of the dynamic you describe.

[Jason Furman]

Yeah. And to be clear, you know, there's a lot of labor supply. There's a little bit of labor demand, too. So I was fine with the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points. I think it's possible they'll need to cut even more. But the biggest reason jobs have slowed down is something that no interest rate change can affect.

[David Brancaccio]

So if you're right, there will be those who would call for an easing of the immigration restrictions. Who's going to do that? You're going to be the person to call President Trump and say, ease off the war on immigration.

[Jason Furman]

You know, it is totally reasonable to say we're going to have a secure border. Joe Biden got around to that in 2024, which is why a lot of this job slowdown actually started in 2024. So I don't want tons and tons of people who aren't authorized to work in the United States to work. But I'd also like us to admit that we do need workers from abroad. Absent that, we'd have huge economic challenges in this country. So legally allow more people in, give a path to citizenship for people who are here, and, yeah, respect and tighten that border.

[David Brancaccio]

Jason Furman, economics professor at Harvard University, thank you very much. Thank you. And in Los Angeles, I'm David Brancaccio. It's the Marketplace Morning report from APM American Public Media.

[Emily Hanford]

The Trump administration is making deep cuts to education research. The cancellation notices started coming.

[David Brancaccio]

When the contract is cut, the study just dies.

[Emily Hanford]

It's all happening just as schools are trying to make use of research to improve reading instruction.

[David Brancaccio]

There would not have been a Science.

[Jason Furman]

Of Reading without the federal funding. It wouldn't have happened.

[Emily Hanford]

I'm Emily Hanford. On our new episode of Sold A Story, what the Trump cuts mean for the science of Reading. Go to your podcast app and follow Sold A Story.