How are your wages comparing to inflation?

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Marketplace Morning Report

Episode: "How are your wages comparing to inflation?"
Date: December 17, 2025
Host: Sabri Ben-Achour (in for David Brancaccio)

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Episode Overview

This episode dives into whether American wages are keeping up with rising inflation, especially as new economic data highlights a squeeze on consumers. Featuring reporting and expert commentary, it covers slowing wage growth, increasing inflation, updates from the global oil market, and a personal perspective from a seasonal worker in New York City. The tone is factual but human-focused, with on-the-ground stories complementing economic analysis.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Wages vs. Inflation: The Consumer Squeeze

[01:24 – 03:11]

• Slowing Wage Growth:

  • In November, average hourly earnings rose 3.5% year-over-year, down from 4% at the start of 2025.
    • Mitchell Hartman: "In November, average hourly earnings rose 3.5% year over year. That's down from January when wages were growing 4%." (01:58)
  • Economists link this to a weakening job market:
    • Kathy Busjancik (via Hartman): “And that's very consistent with a slowing in demand for labor nationwide.” (02:07)
  • Less worker leverage in setting pay as labor demand cools.

• Rising Inflation:

  • When the Trump administration introduced new tariffs in April, inflation was at 2.3%. By September, it had reached 3%.
    • Mitchell Hartman: “By September, that was up to 3%, meaning consumers purchasing power is deteriorating.” (02:19)
  • The upshot: Even modest wage increases aren’t enough to keep up with prices.

• Impact on Households:

  • June Hagan & Susan Schmidt: “And that just adds to the affordability strain that households feel.” (02:39–02:41)

• Exceptions to the Rule:

  • Certain sectors, like artificial intelligence and construction, are seeing stronger wage gains.
    • Sabri Ben-Achour: “There are all these folks in artificial intelligence and the supporting industries ... that are getting very good wages and wage increases.” (02:53)
    • Mitchell Hartman: “Because the sector's hot and workers from it to construction are in high demand.” (03:03)

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2. Oil Market Update: Venezuela Blockade

[03:11 – 04:10]

• New Sanctions & Supply:

  • The Trump administration ordered a blockade of oil tankers to and from Venezuela, labeling its government a terrorist regime.
  • Despite headlines, portfolio manager Susan Schmidt explains the direct market impact will be minimal:
    • Susan Schmidt: “...the amount of oil Venezuela provides into the daily market is less than 1%. So it doesn't have a big impact on the day to day usage of oil or supply.” (03:40)

• OPEC’s Response:

  • OPEC recently eased restrictions on oil production, ensuring global supply remains steady.

• Oil Prices Context:

  • Minor uptick today, but overall:
    • Sabri Ben-Achour: “...for the year, prices are actually down 19%.” (04:10)

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3. Personal Story: Wages & Choices at a NYC Christmas Tree Stand

[06:04 – 09:23]

• Meet June Hagan:

  • Seasonal worker at Uptown Christmas Trees, usually a line cook.
  • Switched roles for a break and to reassess career path:
    • June Hagan: “I'm a line cook. For the most part, though, I've been trying to transition out of it. This seemed like a good way to do that, you know, work for a month straight doing something other than my normal job...” (06:39)

• Pay:

  • $5,000 for the holiday season (about one month of work).
    • Sabri Ben-Achour: “Can I ask how much one makes doing this?”
    • June Hagan: “I'm making five grand for the season. Wow. Yeah. Which is pretty good. Yeah.” (07:00)

• Future Hopes:

  • Hagan wants to avoid returning to restaurant work, was pursuing EMT training but faced cost barriers.

• Economic Reality for Restaurant Workers:

  • Post-COVID, wages spiked for cooks but have since declined:
    • June Hagan: “We definitely had a boom right after Covid...wages definitely took a pretty huge downturn after that in 2021 and in 2022, you know, we were getting paid really well, and now not so much.” (08:28)

• Memorable Reflection:

  • On re-thinking her life:
    • June Hagan: “I had a moment a couple restaurants ago, and I walked through the dining room in the middle of a busy service and looked around at the clientele and just thought, like, you know, what am I doing serving expensive food to rich people right now?” (07:45)

• Christmas Tree Stand Culture:

  • A surprising camaraderie among workers, dedicated to bringing holiday cheer.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “In November, average hourly earnings rose 3.5% year over year. That's down from January when wages were growing 4%.”
  — Mitchell Hartman [01:58]

• “And that's very consistent with a slowing in demand for labor nationwide.”
  — Kathy Busjancik (via Hartman) [02:07]

• “By September, that was up to 3%, meaning consumers purchasing power is deteriorating.”
  — Mitchell Hartman [02:19]

• “There are all these folks in artificial intelligence...that are getting very good wages and wage increases.”
  — Sabri Ben-Achour [02:53]

• “The majority of Americans are indeed going backwards.”
  — Sabri Ben-Achour [02:44]

• “The amount of oil Venezuela provides into the daily market is less than 1%. So it doesn't have a big impact on the day to day usage of oil or supply.”
  — Susan Schmidt [03:40]

• “I'm making five grand for the season. Wow. Yeah. Which is pretty good. Yeah.”
  — June Hagan [07:00]

• “I had a moment a couple restaurants ago...and just thought, like, you know, what am I doing serving expensive food to rich people right now?”
  — June Hagan [07:45]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Wages vs. Inflation Analysis: 01:24 – 03:11
• Oil Market / Venezuela Blockade: 03:11 – 04:10
• Personal Story – Christmas Tree Stand: 06:04 – 09:23

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Tone and Style

The episode combines crisp economic reporting and data, expert analysis, and personal stories that humanize the numbers. The conversational, accessible style helps listeners connect with both a macroeconomic reality and individual experience.

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Transcript

[Commercial Announcer]

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[Sabri Ben-Achour]

Is your paycheck keeping up with your grocery bill? From Marketplace, I'm Sabri Ben, ashore in for David Brancaccio. We are getting a fire hose of economic data this week. Unemployment is up 4.6%, retail sales flat. We get more on inflation tomorrow. And as these numbers come in, one thing that is becoming clearer is that wage gains are slowing while inflation has been heating up. And right there in between the two is the consumer getting squeezed. Marketplace's Mitchell Hartman reports.

[Mitchell Hartman]

In November, average hourly earnings rose 3.5% year over year. That's down from January when wages were growing 4%.

[June Hagan]

And that's very consistent with a slowing.

[Mitchell Hartman]

In demand for labor nationwide, economist Kathy Busjancik explains. In a sluggish job market, workers have less leverage to demand higher wages. Meanwhile, as wage growth has weakened, inflation has strengthened. Back in April, when President Trump announced his Liberation Day tariffs, prices were rising 2.3% a year. By September, that was up to 3%, meaning consumers purchasing power is deteriorating.

[Susan Schmidt]

And that just adds to the affordability.

[June Hagan]

Strain that households feel.

[Sabri Ben-Achour]

The majority of Americans are indeed going backwards.

[Mitchell Hartman]

University of Maryland economist Peter Morici says there are exceptions.

[Sabri Ben-Achour]

There are all these folks in artificial intelligence and the supporting industries putting up data centers and so forth that are getting very good wages and wage increases.

[Mitchell Hartman]

Because the sector's hot and workers from it to construction are in high demand. I'm Mitchell Hartman for Marketplace.

[Sabri Ben-Achour]

The Trump administration has ordered a blockade of oil tankers going into or out of Venezuela and labeled the government of Venezuelan President Nicol Maduro a terrorist regime. Venezuela accuses the Trump administration of violating international law, free trade and the principle of free navigation with a reckless and grave threat. What does this all mean for the price of oil, the price of gas? We asked Susan Schmidt, portfolio manager at Exchange Capital Resources.

[Susan Schmidt]

People are very concerned about supply, but in this case for the oil embargo around Venezuela, it won't have a big impact. The amount of oil Venezuela provides into the daily market is less than 1%. So it doesn't have a big impact on the day to day usage of oil or supply. And certainly OPEC is looking at this. OPEC just met shortly after Thanksgiving and they eased restrictions on production of oil, so there should be plenty of supply out there.

[Sabri Ben-Achour]

Oil prices are indeed up, Only just a touch, 1.3% this morning, but for the year prices are actually down 19%.

[Susan Schmidt]

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[Commercial Announcer]

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[Sabri Ben-Achour]

Today, a seasonal edition of our what's that Like?

[Commercial Announcer]

Series.

[Sabri Ben-Achour]

It's about people working jobs you might not know much about. Taking you to a New York City tree stand called Uptown Christmas Trees, where I met June Hagan, who works the night shift there. I showed up a little after midnight on a weekday. It was 28 degrees, and yet a potential customer rolled up on a bike interested in buying a tree.

[June Hagan]

Hi, how are you doing? Hey.

[Mitchell Hartman]

What is. What is the price range for the.

[June Hagan]

For the.

[Mitchell Hartman]

For the trees?

[June Hagan]

That depends. On.

[Sabri Ben-Achour]

In your other life, all the other months of the year, what do you do?

[June Hagan]

I'm a line cook. For the most part, though, I've been trying to transition out of it. This seemed like a good way to do that, you know, work for a month straight doing something other than my normal job and get some money and gives me some time off to recalibrate and shift.

[Sabri Ben-Achour]

Can I ask how much one makes doing this?

[June Hagan]

I'm making five grand for the season. Wow. Yeah. Which is pretty good. Yeah.

[Sabri Ben-Achour]

Now, will you go back to the line cook job after this?

[June Hagan]

Hopefully not. I had initially quit so I could go to school to become an emt, and that turned out to be a lot more difficult and a lot more expensive than I thought. Still working on that. But, you know, need to save money, need to get a lot of paperwork in order and some time off is going to be helpful to do that.

[Sabri Ben-Achour]

You mentioned you kind of want to reset your life a little bit after this. What's your kind of gut feeling about how it's going to go this coming year?

[June Hagan]

We'll see. I mean, I'm trying not to focus too much on the economic side of it, if I'm being honest. I just know that I wanted to make a change in my life. I had a moment a couple restaurants ago, and I walked through the dining room in the middle of a busy service and looked around at the clientele and just thought, like, you know, what am I doing serving expensive food to rich people right now?

[Sabri Ben-Achour]

How is the restaurant business doing from a line cook's perspective? Like, was it. Was it hard to, you know, find new places when you left one?

[June Hagan]

We definitely had a boom right after Covid. There were so few of us left with any real experience. Wages definitely took a pretty huge downturn after that in 2021 and in 2022, you know, we were getting paid really well, and now not so much.

[Sabri Ben-Achour]

Back to Christmas Trees. What is something that people might be surprised to learn about the business of selling Christmas trees in New York?

[June Hagan]

Yeah, I think people would be probably surprised by, you know, the camaraderie. And it's just a really incredible group of hard working people that just want to, you know, spread a little Christmas cheer, you know.

[Sabri Ben-Achour]

June, thanks again. This is great. Yeah, good luck.

[June Hagan]

Have fun.

[Sabri Ben-Achour]

June Hagen works the night shift at Uptown Christmas Trees in West Harlem. You can hear more of our conversation on the Morning Report podcast [e-mail] in New York. I'm Sabre Benishore with the Marketplace Morning Report. From APM American Public Media.

[Mitchell Hartman]

As we head toward the end of the year, Marketplace is here to help you make sense of the economy, what's happening, why it matters, and how it affects you. If this reporting has been valuable to you in 2025, consider becoming a Marketplace investor. Your support powers independent journalism that cuts through the noise and delivers clarity when it counts. Donate [e-mail] or click the link in the show notes.