How COVID changed the airline biz

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report: How COVID Changed the Airline Business Released March 12, 2025

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Introduction

In this insightful episode of Marketplace Morning Report, hosted by Sabri Beneshour, the discussion delves into the profound and lasting impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the airline industry. With airlines grappling with unprecedented challenges, the podcast explores the ripple effects on manufacturing, construction, and broader economic sectors, while also examining consumer behavior shifts and future industry forecasts.

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Expansion of Steel and Aluminum Tariffs

The episode begins with Sabri Beneshour introducing Nova Saffo, who explains the recent expansion of steel and aluminum tariffs initially introduced during the first Trump administration.

• Nova Saffo [01:05]: "These tariffs date back to the first Trump administration steel and aluminum tariffs, but there were a lot of exemptions along the way... Now, all of those derivative products also were excluded before. Now they're facing import levies."

Nova highlights a Boston Consulting Group analysis indicating that the new tariff rules have more than doubled the amount of steel imports facing new import taxes. The discussion points out that while President Trump aims to bolster domestic manufacturing, sectors like auto manufacturing and construction will bear the brunt of these changes.

• Sabri Beneshour [01:39]: "What should we expect the consequences of this to be?"

• Nova Saffo [01:42]: "The impacts just from these specific tariffs will be relatively negligible on prices overall, but a very significant impact on specific industries like automakers."

Saffo also cautions about potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries, noting the European Union's announcement to impose some retaliatory measures.

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U.S. Inflation Trends

Transitioning from tariffs, Sabri discusses the cooling of U.S. inflation in February, presenting a snapshot of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

• Sabri Beneshour [02:29]: "Inflation in the US In February cooled down quite a bit. The consumer price index just dropped it's a break we really needed. 2.8% yearly inflation."

Nancy Marshall Genser provides a detailed analysis of the CPI data, noting that the rise in inflation slowed to 2.10% in February from 2.10% the previous month. She attributes almost half of the CPI increase to shelter costs and highlights significant rises in used car prices and meat, poultry, fish, and egg prices.

• Nancy Marshall Genser [02:46]: "Prices for meat, poultry, fish and eggs were up more than 1.5% in February. That was mostly driven by the soaring cost of eggs."

Genser references S&P Global economists who predict that the new tariffs could push U.S. inflation higher by half to nearly three-quarters of a percentage point. With CPI lingering around 3% through 2025, above the Federal Reserve's target, Bank of America anticipates the Fed will maintain current interest rates through the end of next year.

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Impact on Airline Industry Post-COVID

Sabri transitions to a segment focusing on the airline industry's recovery and transformation since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Daniel Ackerman reports on the multifaceted challenges airlines face as they navigate reduced demand and altered consumer behaviors.

• Sabri Beneshour [04:35]: "Now. Something from the file of unintended consequences Slashing government jobs and spending has slashed government travel, and that is showing up in demand for flights..."

Robert Mann, an industry consultant, provides historical context by contrasting the strong performance of airlines in February 2020 with the drastic downturn experienced shortly after the pandemic's official start.

• Robert Mann [05:19]: "February 2020 was a pretty good time for airlines... that wouldn't last. By April, there were days when TSA screened fewer than 90,000 travelers."

Henry Hartevelt of Atmosphere Research underscores the severity of the decline, comparing TSA screening numbers to those seen in the 1930s.

• Henry Hartevelt [05:39]: "We hadn't seen a number that low in the United States since the 1930s."

The discussion highlights the scale of government intervention, with over $50 billion in support preventing airline bankruptcies. However, the recovery phase saw a surge in "revenge travel" as vaccination rates increased and restrictions eased.

• Nicholas Rupp [06:16]: "They've gotten stimulus checks, so they've got money to spend. They're ready to travel."

Despite the rebound in leisure travel, business travel remains subdued. Managers have adapted to virtual meetings via Zoom, reducing the necessity for in-person travel and impacting routes to smaller cities that previously relied on a steady flow of business passengers.

• Robert Mann [06:27]: "Business travel didn't see the same rebound... that hurt routes to and from smaller cities."

Hartevelt points out lingering supply chain issues, with major manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus still behind on new plane deliveries.

• Henry Hartevelt [06:56]: "So a key lesson here is when you're faced with a crisis, stay away from knee jerk reactions."

The episode concludes with observations on current trends, noting that major airlines like Delta, American, United, and Southwest have recently slashed their revenue forecasts due to declining consumer sentiment and reduced demand.

• Robert Mann [07:25]: "Airlines may soon get a chance to apply some of the lessons they learned back then."

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Consumer Confidence and Financial Literacy

The podcast briefly touches on declining consumer confidence, suggesting that economic uncertainty has heightened anxiety about financial matters. Janelie Espinal promotes her podcast, Financially Inclined, aimed at demystifying personal finance topics for listeners seeking to build a secure financial future.

• Janelie Espinal [07:57]: "Get serious about your money and build a life you've always dreamed of."

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Conclusion

This episode of Marketplace Morning Report offers a comprehensive analysis of how the COVID-19 pandemic has reshaped the airline industry and interconnected economic sectors. Through expert interviews and data-driven insights, listeners gain a clear understanding of the challenges and adaptations within the airline business, the broader economic implications of expanded tariffs, and the ongoing concerns surrounding inflation and consumer confidence.

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Notable Quotes

• Nova Saffo [01:05]: "Now, all of those derivative products also were excluded before. Now they're facing import levies."
• Sabri Beneshour [02:29]: "Inflation in the US In February cooled down quite a bit... 2.8% yearly inflation."
• Robert Mann [05:25]: "The irony was early February was record traffic, record revenue."
• Henry Hartevelt [05:39]: "We hadn't seen a number that low in the United States since the 1930s."
• Nicholas Rupp [06:16]: "They're ready to travel."

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Episode Highlights

• Tariffs Expansion: Comprehensive overview of expanded steel and aluminum tariffs and their implications on various industries.
• Inflation Insights: Analysis of recent CPI data and future projections affecting monetary policy.
• Airline Industry Recovery: Examination of the airline sector's struggle and adaptation post-COVID, including shifts in consumer behavior and supply chain challenges.
• Economic Sentiment: Discussion on declining consumer confidence and its effects on the economy.

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This detailed summary encapsulates the critical discussions and expert insights presented in the episode, providing listeners with a thorough understanding of the multifaceted impacts of COVID-19 on the airline business and the broader economic landscape.

Transcript

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[Sabri Beneshour]

Steel and aluminum just got a lot more expensive. From Marketplace, I'm Sabri Benishour in for David Brancaccio. It's not just tariffs on steel and aluminum that go into effect today. It's tariffs on hundreds of products made from those metals. Air conditioner parts, aircraft parts, kitchen appliances, nuts and bolts, bulldozer blades. Marketplace's Nova Saffo is here with more. Hi, Nova.

[Nova Saffo]

Good morning, Sabree.

[Sabri Beneshour]

So technically we actually already had some steel and aluminum tariffs in place. This is an expansion of them. Can you break that down for us?

[Nova Saffo]

That's right. These tariffs date back to the first Trump administration steel and aluminum tariffs, but there were a lot of exemptions along the way. For example, some countries, like Japan, had quotas with which they could export to the US A certain amount of product before the higher tariffs kicked in. Now that's all gone. Now, all of those derivative products also were excluded before. Now they're facing import levies. So all of this is a big change. Analysis from the Boston Consulting Group found that the new tariff rules more than double the amount of steel imports alone. Sabri, which are facing new import taxes.

[Sabri Beneshour]

And what should we expect the consequences of this to be?

[Nova Saffo]

Well, President Trump says he's seeking to bring more manufacturing to the US to expand steel and aluminum factories, but also others, such as in auto manufacturing. That Boston Consulting Group analysis I mentioned does find that these tariffs are going to impact the manufacturing and construction industries the most. Now, interestingly, when it comes to the broader economy, S and P Global predicts that the impacts just from these specific tariffs will be relatively negligible on prices overall, but a very significant impact on specific industries like automakers. A big caveat in all of this is that analysts have not yet considered the impacts of retaliatory tariffs from other countries. And the EU has already announced that they will impose some.

[Sabri Beneshour]

All right, Marketplace is Nova Sappho. Thank you so much.

[Nova Saffo]

You're welcome.

[Sabri Beneshour]

Inflation in the US In February cooled down quite a bit. The consumer price index just dropped it's a break we really needed. 2.8% yearly inflation. It's not as low as we'd like it to be, but it's better than the month before. Marketplace's Nancy Marshall Genser has more Inflation.

[Nancy Marshall Genser]

Rose more slowly last month. The Consumer price index was up 2.10percent in February, a bit cooler than the half percent rise in January. Almost half the CPI increase was due to to the cost of shelter. Used car prices were also up. Prices for meat, poultry, fish and eggs were up more than 1.5% in February. That was mostly driven by the soaring cost of eggs. S and P Global economists say if President Trump's tariffs are fully implemented, they'll increase US Inflation by a half to nearly three quarters of a percentage point. With the CPI hovering around 3% through 2025, well above the Federal Reserve's inflation target of 2%, the Fed starts its interest rates this Tuesday. With inflation so far above its target, bank of America sees little reason for an interest rate cut. In fact, BofA expects the Fed to stay on hold through the end of next year. I'm Nancy Marshall Genser for Marketplace.

[Janelie Espinal]

Foreign.

[Nicholas Rupp]

If you want to be savvy about the economy, the Marketplace newsletter is just what you need. Every Friday you'll get explainers and analysis that make sense of everything from the moving markets to grocery prices. No jargon, no hype, just smart takes delivered to your inbox. Sign up [e-mail] subscribe.

[Sabri Beneshour]

Now. Something from the file of unintended consequences Slashing government jobs and spending has slashed government travel, and that is showing up in demand for flights. Delta, American, Southwest, United have all cut their first quarter growth forecast or warn demand is slowing. A decline in government travel is just one reason. The big one, of course, is that consumers and businesses have been getting more anxious about the direction of the economy. This downturn comes five years to the week after the official start of the COVID 19 pandemic, when airlines faced a truly existential threat. This week we're looking at how various industries have recovered from the economic shock of pandemic times and how they've been changed by it. Marketplace's Daniel Ackerman has this report.

[Robert Mann]

February 2020 was a pretty good time for airlines, says industry consultant Robert Mann.

[Nicholas Rupp]

The irony was early February was record traffic, record revenue.

[Robert Mann]

Of course, that wouldn't last. By April. There were days when TSA screened fewer than 90,000 travelers, says Henry Hardefelt of Atmosphere Research.

[Henry Hartevelt]

We hadn't seen a number that low in the United states since the 1930s.

[Robert Mann]

50S with no passengers, airlines cut staff and parked their unused airplanes out in the desert. It took more than $50 billion in government support to keep airlines from going bankrupt. But then in the middle of 2021.

[Henry Hartevelt]

As more people were vaccinated, as restrictions started to ease, we saw domestic and international travel explode. So called revenge travel.

[Robert Mann]

People wanted to get back out there and see their friends and family, says Nicholas Rupp, an economics professor at East Carolina University.

[Nicholas Rupp]

They've gotten stimulus checks, so they've got money to spend. They're ready to travel. So it was leisure travelers that first brought back the airlines.

[Robert Mann]

Business travel didn't see the same rebound. Managers learned Zoom could do the trick just fine, consultant Robert Mann says. That hurt routes to and from smaller cities. Where previously just a handful of business travelers could make it profitable to fly a 50 seat airplane, they were subsidized.

[Nicholas Rupp]

By the 5 or 6 very high fare business travelers who were lying in those markets. And if that type of demand doesn't exist anymore, then the cross subsidy doesn't exist and service will be eliminated, mann says.

[Robert Mann]

Some of those routes may never return, even with business travel picking up lately. The pandemic has also had a lasting impact on aircraft supply chains, says Henry Hartevelt of Atmosphere Research. Manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus are still behind on deliveries of new planes.

[Henry Hartevelt]

So a key lesson here is when you're faced with a crisis, stay away from knee jerk reactions. There are airlines that wish they hadn't got rid of airplanes because when demand hit, they could have used those planes.

[Robert Mann]

Airlines may soon get a chance to apply some of the lessons they learned back then. This week, Delta, American, United and Southwest all slashed their revenue forecasts as consumer sentiment runs into turbulence. I'm Daniel Ackerman for Marketplace, and in.

[Sabri Beneshour]

New York, I'm Sabri Ben, ashore with the Marketplace Morning Report from APM American Public Media.

[Janelie Espinal]

Consumer confidence had its sharpest monthly decline since 2021, which means we're all in our feels about money. And while uncertainty is the only constant these days, it's also a great reason to get serious about understanding personal finance. I'm Janelie Espinal, host of Financially Inclined, a podcast from Marketplace that makes learning about money simple. Learn about practical skills like negotiating job offers, dealing with money and friendship and love, entrepreneurship and student loans. Get serious about your money and build a life you've always dreamed of. Listen to Financially Inclined wherever you get your podcasts.