Marketplace Morning Report – "In the face of a trade war, China defies the odds"

Date: January 14, 2026
Host: BBC World Service for Marketplace, Stuart Clarkson

Episode Overview

This episode analyzes China’s record-breaking trade performance amid an ongoing trade war with the US, delves into shifting global trade patterns, highlights financial market trends, and explores the growing influence of bond markets on national policy. The episode closes with insights into workplace happiness and productivity.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. China’s Record Trade Surplus (00:01 – 02:42)

• China’s Historic Trade Surplus:

  • China announces a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus—the largest in global history—despite ongoing US tariffs.

  • US-China trade fell 20%, but China compensated with increased exports to Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America.

    “China more than made up for it with a massive increase in exports to the rest of the world, in particular places such as Africa, Southeast Asia, Latin America as well.”
    — Nick Marsh, BBC (00:36)

• Export Growth Sectors:

  • Significant export growth in solar panels, electric vehicles, green technology, AI, and robotics.

    “The customs authority in China pointed out a rise in the export of technologies such as solar panels, electric vehicles... artificial intelligence technology, where China is really rapidly making huge strides.”
    — Nick Marsh (01:11)

• US Policy Impact:

  • President Trump’s goal: reduce US dependency on Chinese imports and protect American workers.

  • While US imports from China declined, China quickly expanded into alternate markets.

    “China has effectively gone, well, it's a shame we can't sell to you as much as we used to. But look at all these other parts of the world that are very willing to buy from us and are buying from us in record numbers.”
    — Nick Marsh (02:22)

2. Canada-China Relations Update (02:42 – 03:00)

• Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visits Beijing—the first top-level visit in nine years—intending to boost Sino-Canadian trade ties:

  “Mark Carney’s arrived in Beijing…He'll hold one on one talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday.”
  — Stuart Clarkson (02:43)

3. Financial Market Highlights (03:00 – 03:37)

• Gold, silver, copper, and tin hit record highs; silver surpasses $90/oz and rises 27% in two weeks of 2026.
• BP expects up to $5 billion in write-downs in gas and low-carbon energy, also citing weak oil trading in late 2025.

4. The Power of the Global Bond Markets (03:37 – 06:08)

• Bond Markets and Government Policy:

  • Bond markets—at $145 trillion—now surpass the value of global stock markets and even global GDP.

  • Recently, UK Prime Minister Liz Truss’ resignation was partly due to underestimating bond market reactions to economic policy.

    “Liz Truss became Britain’s shortest serving prime minister…she'd misjudged not just Britain's creditworthiness, but also the power of the bond markets to effectively determine the country's economic fate.”
    — Ed Butler (03:43)

• Debt, Interest Rates, and Fiscal Constraints:

  • Rising global interest rates make debt servicing more expensive, forcing governments into difficult positions.

    “If interest rates start to rise suddenly, then you can see the interest payments suddenly explode. And when that happens, governments can actually get into a death barrel…they just can't repay the interest.”
    — Gillian Tett, Financial Times (04:23)

• Bond Market Influence—Democracy in Question?

  • Luke Hickmore argues markets aren’t dictating fiscal policy but assigning pricing risk, while others worry about limited policy options for elected governments.

    “It's not a situation where you've got an undemocratic bunch of people deciding on the fiscal outcome...as a country having to make sure that they can continue to fund at a sensible level, because that's our job is deciding the risk.”
    — Luke Hickmore, Aberdeen Investments (05:17)

  • Policymakers rarely volunteer for tough trade-offs unless forced by market shocks.

    “No politician really has much incentive…to talk about the trade offs that need to happen. So unless there’s a shock from outside like a bond market crisis, it tends to be very hard for governments to actually make the difficult decisions.”
    — Gillian Tett (05:48)

5. The Business Case for Happy Workplaces (06:08 – 06:41)

• New research finds workplace flexibility, good information sharing, and prioritizing well-being are keys to happier, more productive teams worldwide.

  “Flexibility from managers is key to happy teams, as well as things like good information sharing and prioritizing workers’ well-being.”
  — Stuart Clarkson (06:18)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

| Time | Quote | Speaker | | ------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------- | | 00:36 | “China more than made up for it with a massive increase in exports to the rest of the world…” | Nick Marsh (BBC) | | 01:11 | “The customs authority in China pointed out…solar panels, electric vehicles…artificial intelligence technology, where China is really rapidly making huge strides…” | Nick Marsh | | 02:22 | “China has effectively gone, well, it's a shame…But look at all these other parts of the world that are…buying from us in record numbers.” | Nick Marsh | | 03:43 | “…Liz Truss became Britain’s shortest serving prime minister…misjudged...power of the bond markets…” | Ed Butler | | 04:23 | “If interest rates start to rise suddenly…governments can actually get into a death barrel where they end up with so much debt they just can't repay the interest.” | Gillian Tett | | 05:17 | “It's not a situation where you've got an undemocratic bunch of people deciding on the fiscal outcome...” | Luke Hickmore | | 05:48 | “No politician really has much incentive…unless there's a shock from outside like a bond market crisis…” | Gillian Tett | | 06:18 | “Flexibility from managers is key to happy teams, as well as…good information sharing and prioritizing workers’ well-being.” | Stuart Clarkson |

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:01 – China’s record trade surplus and global export strategy
• 00:36 – China’s diversification away from US markets
• 01:11 – Export sector details: green tech, AI, robotics
• 01:54 – US policy goals, Chinese response
• 02:43 – Canada-China diplomatic engagement
• 03:00 – Commodity and energy market updates
• 03:37 – Bond markets and the downfall of Liz Truss
• 04:09 – Debt, interest rates, and fiscal risk explained
• 05:17 – Bond market power and democracy
• 05:48 – Political incentives and market shocks
• 06:18 – Factors making workplaces happier and more productive

This episode gives listeners a concise yet nuanced tour of how global economics, political maneuvering, and financial markets interconnect—with sharp insights on the resilience of major economies, the influence of market forces on policy, and the importance of well-being in the workplace.