It's almost time for Jackson Hole again

Summary

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Marketplace Morning Report: “It's almost time for Jackson Hole again”

Date: August 18, 2025
Host: Nancy Marshall Genzer (in for David Brancaccio)
Key Guests:

• Julia Coronado, Founder and President, Macro Policy Perspectives
• Laura Hyten Ginseng (BBC World Service)
• Various Nigerian cassava experts and farmers

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Episode Overview

This episode focuses on two main stories:

1. The upcoming Federal Reserve symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where investors eagerly await Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech for signals about the future of U.S. interest rates amidst economic uncertainty.
2. The global economic potential of cassava, featuring a BBC World Service report on Nigeria—the world’s top producer—attempting to turn its cassava crop into greater global export success.

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Segment 1: Fed Chair Powell Heads to Jackson Hole

[00:18 – 03:34]

Main Points

• Jackson Hole Symposium:

  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak Friday at Jackson Hole, Wyoming—a closely watched event for clues on interest rate direction.
  • Investors, economists, and policymakers are watching for any hints at a rate cut.

• Policy Dilemma:

  • The Fed is balancing conflicting pressures:
    • Higher inflation (partially blamed on President Trump’s tariffs).
    • Weakening job market.
  • As Julia Coronado puts it, “There are risks to both sides of their mandates: stable prices and maximum employment.” [01:03]

• Interest Rate Strategy:

  • Powell's likely approach is caution:
    • “If they lower interest rates, that might help the job market but stoke inflation and vice versa.” [01:26]
    • The Fed has so far held rates steady, waiting for clearer data trends.
    • Coronado predicts that if a rate cut comes in September, it’ll likely be “one and no promises of more. Just wait and see.” [02:17]

• Data Dependence (“It depends on the data”):

  • Upcoming inflation and employment reports for August will be key to the Fed’s decision.
  • “They will be very important reports that will help inform which is the greater risk and what direction should interest rates go and how quickly.” [02:39]

• Policy Framework:

  • Powell is expected to “underscore the importance of having an independent central bank” and stress that decisions are made “judiciously and independently from political interference.” [03:09]

Notable Quotes

• Julia Coronado on the Fed's bind:
  “What do they do? If they lower interest rates, that might help the job market but stoke inflation and vice versa. If they hold rates too high, that might keep inflation in check but hurt the labor market.” [01:23]

• On what’s next:
  “They may go ahead with a rate cut in September… probably one and no promises of more. Just wait and see. Gather more data. See which risk is the greater risk.” [02:14]

• On the significance of Fed independence:
  “It’s likely to reaffirm the importance… of having an independent central bank with a framework built for many different situations.” [03:06]

Memorable Moment

• The episode succinctly captures the central tension facing the Fed—caught between the need to support a struggling labor market while inflation remains stubbornly high.

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Segment 2: Cassava’s Global Economic Ambitions

[03:56 – 07:02]
Field Report by BBC’s Laura Hyten Ginseng, from Southeast London and Nigeria

Main Points

• Cassava’s Global Significance:

  • Cassava (also known as yucca) is crucial for food security, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa.
  • Nigeria is the world’s largest producer but exports little of it globally.

• Versatility:

  • Cassava is made into multiple products: starch, flour, gary, fufu, ethanol, glue.
  • Cassava underpins diets around the world, especially in developing countries.

• Dependence on Cassava:

  • Professor Lateef Sani says:
    “If you take cassava away, it’s like a third world… War, World War Three… In terms of survival, it’s going to be tough.” [05:19 – 05:26]

• Challenges for Nigerian Farmers:

  • Smallholder farmers do all labor manually, facing tough working conditions.
  • Mrs. Kemi (farmer in Ogun State):
    “We labor a lot. Even at times we might not be able to complete the planting because of the stress and the hard labor. If we use machine planting work, agriculture will be very, very easy. But I don’t have enough money to afford it…” [05:46]

• Potential for Export Growth:

  • The global cassava market is worth $3.5 billion; Nigeria contributes only about $1 million.
  • Dr. Mustafa Bacano’s strategy:
    • Organize smallholder farmers into clusters to gain access to bank loans and processing machinery, increasing scale, productivity, and export potential.
    • “By the time we’re able to identify their farmlands, we are able to know what exactly is it they need and what exactly is the challenges.” [06:23]

• Economic Transformation:

  • Successful aggregation and mechanization could “transform the Nigerian economy.” [06:57]

Notable Quotes

• Professor Lateef Sani on cassava’s importance:
  “If you take cassava away, it’s like a third world. War, World War three. In terms of survival, it’s going to be tough.” [05:19 – 05:26]

• Mrs. Kemi, on the hardships of manual farming:
  “If we use machine planting work, agriculture will be very, very easy. But I don’t have enough money to afford it because we cannot apply our whole capital on machine alone.” [05:46]

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Timestamps of Key Segments

• Fed policy dilemmas & Jackson Hole: [00:18 – 03:34]
• Cassava & Nigeria’s export ambitions: [03:56 – 07:02]

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Takeaways

• The economic world awaits Powell’s Jackson Hole speech for direction on the next steps for U.S. monetary policy, with the Fed walking a tightrope between inflation and unemployment.
• Farther afield, fundamental economic transformation can hinge on humble crops—like cassava in Nigeria—which, if supported and organized, may become the backbone of both food security and global trade.

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Transcript

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[Nancy Marshall Genzer]

Fed Chair Jerome Powell heads to Jackson Hole this week. From Marketplace, I'm Nancy Marshall Genzer in for David Brancaccio. This is a big week for Federal Reserve watchers. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at a recent surge conference on Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Investors will be looking for hints on when the Fed might lower interest rates. Julia Coronado joins me now to discuss this. She's founder and president of Macro Policy Perspectives and a professor at the University of Texas, Austin. Good morning, Julia.

[Julia Coronado]

Good morning.

[Nancy Marshall Genzer]

So Fed Chair Powell has said he expects higher inflation from President Trump's tariffs this summer. What do you expect to hear from Powell on that and other issues this Friday?

[Julia Coronado]

Usually the Jackson Hole speech is used to explore longer term themes. I think we will hear from Chair Powell that right now there are risks to both sides of their mandates, stable inflation, stable prices and maximum employment. And we've seen both some signs of inflation and tariffs pushing prices higher as well as the labor market weakening, which leaves the Fed kind of in a bind. What do they do? If they lower interest rates, that might help the job market but stoke inflation and vice versa. If they hold rates too high, that might keep inflation in check but hurt the labor market.

[Nancy Marshall Genzer]

Yeah, I mean, the Fed really is being pulled in two directions here, isn't it? I mean, job creation has been weak. That would tend to tip the balance toward an interest rate cut. But inflation is still sticky, so rates need to stay higher to keep that under control. How is the Fed balancing those competing pressures?

[Julia Coronado]

Very carefully. So so far they have balanced it by doing nothing and holding interest rates exactly where they are. They may go ahead with a rate cut in September. If they do so, we would expect it would probably be one and no promises of more. Just wait and see. Gather more data. See which risk is the greater risk.

[Nancy Marshall Genzer]

Chair Powell does always say it depends on the data. So what data will come in between now and the Fed's September meeting on interest rates?

[Julia Coronado]

The Fed will get another round of both inflation and employment data and it will be for August and they will be very important reports that will help inform which is the greater risk and what direction should interest rates go and how quickly.

[Nancy Marshall Genzer]

One more question about Fed Chair Powell's speech on Friday he is expected to unveil the Fed's new policy framework. And this is the Fed's game plan for achieving its goals for inflation and employment. What do you think that's going to look like?

[Julia Coronado]

I think without getting too deep in the weeds, it's likely to reaffirm the importance. And Chair Powell may use the opportunity to underscore the importance of having an independent central bank with a framework built for many different situations, and that they make those decisions judiciously and independently from political interference.

[Nancy Marshall Genzer]

Julia Coronado, founder and president of Macro Policy Perspectives. Thank you.

[Julia Coronado]

My pleasure.

[Nancy Marshall Genzer]

The root vegetable cassava, maybe you know it as yucca, is one of the world's most versatile crops and a critical source of food security. But it's also a commodity under increasing global demand. Nigeria is the world's largest producer of cassava, but it doesn't export much of it to the global market. That's something Nigeria wants to change. Here's the BBC's Laura Hyten Ginseng.

[Laura Hyten Ginseng]

This is Peckham, Southeast London, also known as Little Lagos for its big British Nigerian community. I'm heading to bim's African Food Store, a local institution.

[Interviewees (Various Nigerian Experts and Farmers)]

And eat with chicken.

[Laura Hyten Ginseng]

5, 6, 7 different cassava products. Besides the edible root, which is kind of like an elongated potato, cassava can be processed into a wide range of products, including starch, flour, a coarse grain called gary and a dough called fufu, as well as ethanol and even glue.

[Interviewees (Various Nigerian Experts and Farmers)]

Thank you so much.

[Laura Hyten Ginseng]

Lovely to meet you. Thank you. Cassava's importance to diets around the world is not to be underestimated. Professor Lateef Sani is a world leading expert on the crop.

[Interviewees (Various Nigerian Experts and Farmers)]

In sub Saharan Africa, developing countries, lot of people eat cassava.

[Laura Hyten Ginseng]

If you took cassava away, how would it affect its population?

[Interviewees (Various Nigerian Experts and Farmers)]

I must tell you, if you take cassava away, it's like a third world.

[Laura Hyten Ginseng]

War, World War three.

[Interviewees (Various Nigerian Experts and Farmers)]

In terms of survival, it's going to be tough.

[Laura Hyten Ginseng]

Defending against this kind of devastation is Nigeria's army of smallholder farmers who number in the millions and who do their work manually. Mrs. Kemi uses a machete on her cassava farm in Ogun State, southwestern Nigeria.

[Interviewees (Various Nigerian Experts and Farmers)]

We labour a lot. Even at times we might not be able to complete the planting because of the stress and the hard labor. If we use machine planting work, agriculture will be very, very easy. But I don't have enough money to afford it because we cannot apply our whole capital on machine alone.

[Laura Hyten Ginseng]

The global cassava export industry is worth about $3.5 billion. But Nigeria accounts for only about $1 million of that. Dr. Mustafa Bacano, head of the Nigeria Cassava Growers association, wants to turn things around.

[Interviewees (Various Nigerian Experts and Farmers)]

We first need to know who are the farmers. By the time we're able to identify their farmlands, we are able to know what exactly is it they need and what exactly is the challenges.

[Laura Hyten Ginseng]

His plan is to organize all smallholder farmers into clusters through which they can access bank loans to buy processing machinery, which they can later pay off due to their increased yields. Some clusters have already been set up, but aggregating millions of farmers is a gargantuan task. If the potential of cassava isn't in dispute, if successfully harnessed, it could transform the Nigerian economy. I'm the BBC's Laura Heitingens for Marketplace.

[Nancy Marshall Genzer]

And I'm Nancy Marshall Genzer with the Marketplace Morning Report from apm, American Public Media.