Keeping an eye on oil prices

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report: "Keeping an Eye on Oil Prices"

Date: April 6, 2026
Host: David Brancaccio
Guest: Julia Coronado (Economist, MacroPolicy Perspectives; Professor, University of Texas at Austin)
Special Guest: Walter Haas III (Owner, Graffeo Coffee, San Francisco)

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Episode Overview

This episode of the Marketplace Morning Report centers on volatile oil prices amid geopolitical tensions, upcoming key economic data, reflections on host David Brancaccio’s career, and a feature on a niche coffee business for the "Business Envy" series. In typical fashion, the show packs context, analysis, and character into a brisk, sub-10-minute report.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Oil Prices Surge Amid Uncertainty

• [00:56] Brancaccio opens with the news that crude oil jumped from down 1% to up 1%, hitting $112.50 a barrel.
• The price jump is attributed to:
  • Lack of clarity on US-Iran talks.
  • OPEC's weekend agreement to slightly increase production.
• Julia Coronado’s Analysis:
  • [01:27] "The reality is that the Strait of Hormuz is closed and most of that production simply is impossible at this moment."
  • Tensions in the Gulf have constrained oil supply despite OPEC’s intent.

2. Upcoming Economic & Inflation Data

• [01:35] Preview of upcoming U.S. GDP revision for October–December of last year, provided by the government on Thursday.
  • Brancaccio calls it "a bit of a history lesson."
• [01:52] Friday brings forward-looking inflation data, critical due to the economic impacts tied to the war in Iran.
  • Coronado: "That's going to tell us the more forward looking story, which is the first look where we're going to see the inflation that Americans are having to absorb tied to the war in Iran."

3. A Farewell (but Not Goodbye): Brancaccio’s Transition

• [02:12] Julia Coronado playfully interviews Brancaccio about his departure from the Morning Report after 13 years.
  • He reflects: "We did Brexit together, meme stocks, I mean, a lot of water under this news bridge, right?" ([02:17])
  • Coronado adds: "Supply chain inflation and pandemic tariffs, reverse globalization that we're going through now." ([02:29])
  • She notes the resiliency of the U.S. economy: "Often the resiliency of the U.S. economy surprising us to the upside." ([02:38])
  • Brancaccio clarifies he’s staying at Marketplace to focus on "decisions made now that shape our futures—personal finance, innovation, and government policy." ([02:45])
  • Coronado: "We will miss you on the Morning Beat." ([02:58])
• Brancaccio is on Morning Report through Friday.

4. Market Update and Mortgage Rates Amid Geopolitical Tensions

• [03:15] Stocks and mortgage rate highlights:
  • Early trading: Dow down 17, S&P up 0.10%, NASDAQ up 0.10%.
  • Mortgage Rates: "The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is at 6.45%. It was 5.99 the day before the US military action in Iran began." (Citing Mortgage News Daily) ([03:15])

5. 'Business Envy' Series: Graffeo Coffee, San Francisco

• [05:20] Feature on Graffeo Coffee, a classic roaster with a minimalist business model: sells only beans (light, dark, decaf), no coffee drinks or extras.
• Interview with Walter Haas III:
  • [06:13] Haas bought the company, San Francisco’s oldest coffee roaster (since 1935), a year and a half ago: “You'll find me doing almost every job besides roasting, because we leave that to professionals.”
  • The "secret" to Graffeo’s beans:
    • [06:44] "My predecessor...rebuilt our roasting machine...invented a new roasting process called fluid bed roasting, which he had been perfecting over the last 41 years.”
  • On selling strictly beans:
    • [07:40] "We have swag, but you cannot buy it. We give it away. But you bring up a great point. We do not sell anything besides beans. In fact, we don't even sell coffee."
    • Emphasis on doing a few things very well: "That's why he picked dark, light, decaf. That's it."
  • Business Philosophy:
    • [08:13] “My job is part business building and part custodianship. We are never going to compromise the integrity of our roasting...that in itself limits us to some extent as to how much coffee that we can create.”
  • Coffee Preference:
    • [08:34] "My secret is anything with a metal filter...I believe creates a more richer flavor because you get more of the oil coming into it. And so that's my preference."

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Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• Julia Coronado on oil supply constraints:
  "The reality is that the Strait of Hormuz is closed and most of that production simply is impossible at this moment." — (01:27)

• David Brancaccio on his tenure:
  "We did Brexit together, meme stocks, I mean, a lot of water under this news bridge, right?" — (02:17)

• Julia Coronado on the U.S. economy:
  "Often the resiliency of the U.S. economy surprising us to the upside." — (02:38)

• David Brancaccio reassuring listeners:
  "I'm not leaving though, Julia. I'm staying at Marketplace with a new beat to cover future effects, decisions made now that shape our futures, personal finance, innovation and government policy." — (02:45)

• Walter Haas III on Graffeo’s philosophy:
  "We do not sell anything besides beans. In fact, we don't even sell coffee." — (07:40)

• Walter Haas III on tradition and quality:
  "We are never going to compromise the integrity of our roasting. And so that in itself limits us to some extent as to how much coffee that we can create." — (08:13)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [00:56] – Oil price surge, context for volatility, OPEC update
• [01:27] – Julia Coronado: Geopolitical constraints on oil supply
• [01:35] – Preview: GDP revision and upcoming inflation data
• [02:12] – Brancaccio’s farewell and legacy reflections with Coronado
• [03:15] – Market and mortgage updates amid geopolitical instability
• [05:20] – "Business Envy" segment intro: Graffeo Coffee
• [06:13] – Walter Haas III on buying Graffeo Coffee and "the secret"
• [07:40] – Minimalist business model: only beans, no drinks
• [08:13] – Business philosophy: tradition, limits, quality

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Tone and Style

The episode weaves brisk market updates with warmth and personal touches, especially during Brancaccio’s on-air handoff and the engaging interview with Haas. The conversational style remains accessible and grounded, mixing global economics with in-store anecdotes on coffee culture.

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For more episodes, tune in to Marketplace Morning Report wherever you get your podcasts.

Transcript

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[Walter Haas III]

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[David Brancaccio]

for you that the Sunday scaries ahead of the dreaded work week would be a thing of the past? I'm David Brancaccio in Los Angeles. First, the price of crude just went from down 1% to now up 1%, $112.50 a barrel. Now with no clarity on the status of US Iran talks. And this after the oil producers cartel OPEC agreed over the weekend to slightly increase production to try to take the edge off prices. But what is the reality? Economist Julia Coronado, founder of Macro Policy

[Julia Coronado]

Perspectives the reality is that the Strait of Hormuz is closed and most of that production simply is impossible at this moment.

[David Brancaccio]

And the price of crude is high today in the $110 a barrel range. Now on Thursday, we get from the US Government a revision of gdp, economic growth. It's a bit of a history lesson, covers October to December of last year, which seems like a long time ago.

[Julia Coronado]

It does indeed. And in fact, the very next day we will get the inflation data for and that's going to tell us the more forward looking story, which is the first look where we're going to see the inflation that Americans are having to absorb tied to the war in Iran.

[David Brancaccio]

All right. Well, we'll be here for that.

[Julia Coronado]

So David, if I may ask you a question. I hear you're leaving this show.

[David Brancaccio]

Yep. After 13 years. What have we been through here, you and I? We did Brexit together meme stocks. I mean, a lot of water under this news bridge, right?

[Julia Coronado]

Supply chain inflation and pandemic tariffs, reverse

[David Brancaccio]

globalization that we're going through now.

[Julia Coronado]

Yes. And often the resiliency of the U.S. economy surprising us to the upside.

[David Brancaccio]

I'm not leaving though, Julia. I'm staying at Marketplace with a new beat to cover future effects, decisions made now that shape our futures, personal finance, innovation and government policy. So you can probably still help me with that.

[Julia Coronado]

Well, I look forward to seeing what you do next, David. It will be an exciting chapter, but we will miss you on the Morning Beat.

[David Brancaccio]

Thank you very much, but I'm still on the Morning Beat through Friday. Julia Coronado is also professor at the University of Texas, Austin. Thank you.

[Julia Coronado]

My pleasure.

[David Brancaccio]

Back to short term framing for a moment. The Dow in early trading down 17 points. The S&P is up 3.10%. The NASDAQ up 6.10%. The average 30 year fixed rate mortgage is at 6.45%. It was 5% 5.99 the day before the US military action in Iran began, according to Mortgage News Daily's calculation.

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[David Brancaccio]

I'm sure you love what you do and you're the perfect fit for your present role. But have you ever come across a business model where you say to yourself that is for me? I've been out collecting these for our Business Envy series. Last week it was Moment Motor Company in Austin where you bring them the classic car of your choice and they make it an electric vehicle. I'd do that. Well, today, a very fine roaster of coffee beans, Graffao of San Francisco. It does beans, light, dark, decaf, and nothing else. Walter Haas III is from the family that's behind Levi's jeans. He's a tech startup entrepreneur who then decided his bliss is this coffee. Mr. Haas, welcome.

[Walter Haas III]

Hi, there. Thanks for having me.

[David Brancaccio]

I thought a startup guy like you, a professional businessman, would be working on the high floor of an office tower. I went into Graffao's a couple months ago to get some beans, and there you were. What's your day look like? I mean, like, well, what are you doing over there?

[Walter Haas III]

So I bought Groffeo, which is San Francisco's oldest coffee roaster. It's been around since 1935, about a year and a half ago. And basically, you'll find me doing almost every job besides roasting, because we leave that to professionals.

[David Brancaccio]

Now, I've been using Graffeo's coffee since I was a young reporter at KQED in San Francisco. Now, there's a place in Rome, Italy, that might be its peer, but in the US I've never had a better bean to my taste. What do you think the secret is over there? There's some kind of magic going on.

[Walter Haas III]

Yeah, well, there definitely is a secret. And that is all coming from my predecessor, the former owner, a man named Luciano Repetto, who inherited the business from his father, but in the late 70s, decided to, from scratch, rebuild our roasting machine. And he invented a new roasting process called fluid bed roasting, which he had been perfecting and had perfected over the last 41 years. And so what you're tasting is thousand of hours of tinkering with a roasting process to make the world's greatest coffee.

[David Brancaccio]

I have always said about Graffeos, right? You go in there and you sell three things and three things alone. There's no copies of Yanni CDs for sale. There's no piles of New York Times, no stale scones. You just got your light, your dark, and your decaf. I mean, you're going to start selling tchotchkas and T shirts. What's the idea?

[Walter Haas III]

We have swag, but you cannot buy it. We give it away. But you bring up a great point. We do not sell anything besides beans. In fact, we don't even sell coffee. Graffeo only sells the beans, for which we encourage you to take home and make yourself. That's a remnant of my predecessor's belief that you can only do so many things well. And that's why he picked dark, light decaf. That's it.

[David Brancaccio]

Now you can, in our system of capitalism, husband a brand without wanting to scale it intergalactically large. I mean, is that your sense?

[Walter Haas III]

Look, I think my job is part business building and part custodianship. And so we're taking a real old school company and giving it fresh life without losing its soul. We are never going to compromise the integrity of our roasting. And so that in itself limits us to some extent as to how much coffee that we can create.

[David Brancaccio]

How do you, Walter, make your coffee? What's your technique?

[Walter Haas III]

I try a lot of different ways, but my secret is anything with a metal filter that includes a French press or a mocha pot I believe creates a more richer flavor because you get more of the oil coming into it. And so that's my preference for coffee.

[David Brancaccio]

Walter Haas, the third Graffeo Coffee based in San Francisco. Thank you very much.

[Walter Haas III]

Thank you so much. Appreciate it.

[David Brancaccio]

If I can't get Graffao, I like Green Tree Coffee of Lincolnville, Maine, my home state. And in my ancestral Italy, Cafe Santo Stacchio near the Pantheon in Rome is the move, if you ask me. Ever heard of a job so good you'd live for Monday mornings? Email us the business you envy using MorningReportPlace.org in Los Angeles, I'm David Brancaccio Marketplace morning report from APM American Public Media.

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