New day, new tariffs

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report: "New Day, New Tariffs"

Date: September 30, 2025
Host: Sabri Benishour (in for David Brancaccio)
Duration: ~10 minutes

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Episode Overview

This episode dives into the latest round of tariffs announced by the Trump administration—this time targeting foreign timber and wood products, exploring the economic and political implications. Other top stories include the looming government shutdown, its potential impact on jobs data, and an unusual housing market trend where existing home prices have surpassed new home prices. Interviews with economists, market analysts, and industry leaders provide context to these fast-moving events.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. New Tariffs on Timber and Wood Products

[01:06–02:20]

• The Trump administration has announced fresh tariffs citing national security concerns:
  • 10% tariff on timber and lumber imports
  • 25% tariff on wooden furniture, vanities, and kitchen cabinets
• The tariffs take effect October 14, with further increases on January 1 (furniture tariff to 30%, vanities/cabinets to 50%).
• Carveouts: 10% max on UK wood, 15% for EU and Japan.
• Impact:
  • Rationale from the administration: mitigation of U.S. lumber mill closures.
  • Pushback from builders: "Higher lumber tariffs will increase housing costs." (Nancy Marshall Genser, [01:32])

Notable Quote:

“The National Association of Homebuilders, though, says higher lumber tariffs will increase housing costs.”
— Nancy Marshall Genser, [02:08]

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2. Looming Government Shutdown

[02:20–02:45]

• No agreement reached between President Trump and congressional leaders to avert a government shutdown, likely to start at midnight.
• Markets are responding—Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ futures down 2-3 tenths of a percent.

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3. Housing Market Anomaly: Existing vs. New Home Prices

[02:45–06:06]

• For five consecutive months, median price of existing homes has been higher than that of new homes—a rare inversion.
• Usual trend: new homes cost more due to features and condition.
• Factors:
  • Elevated interest rates prompting builders to scale down and offer price cuts on new homes.
  • Existing homeowners locked into low mortgage rates, less willing to sell.
  • Inventory dynamics: Number of existing homes increasing, but ~20% of sales are above list price.
  • Regional skew: Nearly 70% of new home sales occur in the South, where housing prices are lower.
  • New home price softness could signal broader market weakness.

Notable Quotes:

"New things are generally more expensive than used things—a newly built house, for instance, has all the updated trends."
— David Brancaccio, [03:14]

“Existing home sellers are just entrenched in their homes. They have no motivation to move from low interest rate mortgages.”
— Jessica Lautz, [04:34]

“They are willing to become accidental landlords and to hold onto those properties.”
— Jessica Lautz, [04:57]

“Home builders experience it first and react, so it just takes a while longer to actually hit the resale markets.”
— Rick Palacios, [05:35]

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4. Impact of a Government Shutdown on Economic Data

[07:34–09:17]

• The Department of Labor will not release scheduled Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports during a shutdown, including the crucial monthly jobs report.
• This creates uncertainty for analysts and policymakers.
• Alternative reports (e.g., from ADP) cannot fully substitute for BLS data, as they are "quite noisy" and lack comprehensive coverage.

Notable Quotes:

"The BLS jobs report is the data equivalent of tasting the job market soup."
— Daniel Zhao, Glassdoor, [08:15]

“If the numbers come out on Tuesday instead of Friday, that’s not tragic. But if this goes on for more than a few days, then it becomes a big problem, potentially pushing back data collection for October.”
— Jesse Rothstein, former Department of Labor Chief Economist, [09:01]

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Memorable Moments, Quotes, and Speaker Attribution

• On Tariffs:
  • “[New tariffs] will all take effect October 14... On January 1, the furniture tariff rises to 30% and the vanity and cabinet tax increases to 50%.”
    — Nancy Marshall Genser, [01:32]
• On Housing Market Oddity:
  • “Median existing home price is now higher than the median new home price. This has been pretty rare in the half century that people have been tracking this kind of thing.”
    — Sabri Benishour, [02:20]
• On Homebuyers’ Mentality:
  • "They're willing to become accidental landlords and to hold onto those properties."
    — Jessica Lautz, [04:57]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Tariffs on Timber and Wood: [01:06–02:20]
• Market/Jitters over Shutdown: [02:20–02:45]
• Housing Market Inversion Report: [02:45–06:06]
• Labor Department & BLS Delay: [07:34–09:17]

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Tone and Style

The episode maintains Marketplace’s trademark brisk, informative, and at times lightly conversational tone, featuring concise explanations, expert soundbites, and real-world impact.

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Summary

This episode covers a whirlwind of economic developments: new U.S. tariffs on foreign wood products (and their likely consequences for housing costs), uncertainty wrought by a prospective government shutdown (and how markets are reacting), a unique flip in housing market price trends, and the far-reaching implications of potentially missing federal jobs data. Laced with voices from economists and industry insiders, it delivers a succinct, highly informative snapshot of the day’s top economic stories—vital for anyone tracking business and policy developments in real time.

Transcript

[David Brancaccio]

You can turn to Marketplace to hear from powerful leaders and everyday people about the economy and their role in it. Now we hope we can turn to you. Marketplace is facing real threats and challenges as we plan for the future. As a public media program, donations from you are an important part of our budget. Here's one action you can take right now that will have a long lasting impact. Start a monthly donation to support five bucks a month is a great place to start. Head to marketplace.org donate and thank you.

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[Sabri Benishour]

New Day New Tariffs from Marketplace I'm Sabree Benishore in for David Brancaccio. Foreign soft timber and wood products those are the latest goods to get tariffs from the White House. The Trump administration announced these new import taxes yesterday. The rationale was national security. The administration also released more details on a string of new tariffs President Trump announced in social media posts last week. Marketplace's Nancy Marshall Genser reports.

[Nancy Marshall Genser]

A White House proclamation says there will be a 10% tariff on timber and lumber imports and 25% import taxes on wooden furniture, vanities and kitchen cabinets. This will all take effect October 14. On January 1, the furniture tariff rises to 30% and the vanity and cabinet tax increases to 50%. There are carveouts though. The White House says tariffs on wood products from Britain will be capped at 10% with a limit of 15% for wood imports from the EU and Japan. The White House says these tariffs are necessary for national security and imports have increased lumber mill closures in the U.S. the National association of Homebuilders, though, says higher lumber tariffs will increase housing costs. I'm Nancy Marshall Genzer for Marketplace.

[Sabri Benishour]

President Trump and congressional leaders were unable to come to a deal yesterday to avoid a government shutdown which, barring some some other last minute deal, would take effect tonight at midnight. Markets did not care about the shutdown until they did, at least a little bit. Let's do the numbers. Dow S&P and NASDAQ futures are all down in the 2 to 3. 10% range. The Dow futures down 138 points. In normal times, a freshly built brand new home costs more than a used home. Also known in the real estate business as an existing home. But we are not in normal times. And that has all gotten flipped around for five straight months now. The median existing home price is now higher than the median new home price. This has been pretty rare in the half century that people have been tracking this kind of thing. Marketplace's Megan McCarty Carino has more on what it might mean.

[David Brancaccio]

With the possible exception of limited edition Birkin bags and Air Jordans, new things are generally more expensive than used things. A newly built house, for instance, has all the updated trends.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

You know, white countertops and most maybe white and gray cabinets.

[David Brancaccio]

Nitin Gupta is a real estate agent in Dallas who mostly sells new homes. He says older homes often have stained carpet windows that don't seal or a wheezy old H Vac system that's no match for the Lone Star State Texas.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

The air conditioning goes on 24 by 7.

[David Brancaccio]

It's those differences that make this inversion in average prices weird, says Robert Dietz, chief economist at the national association of Home Builders.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

We saw it happen in 2021, which was on the upside of a growing market, and before that, the only other times that I can recall it occurring were in significant market downturns, he says.

[David Brancaccio]

Elevated interest rates have led builders to aim smaller, more modest townhomes than luxury five bedrooms. Plus, many are resorting to price cuts because an empty house is a drag on the bottom line. That's not really the case in the resale market, says Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist at the National Realtors Association.

[Carla Javier]

Existing home sellers are just entrenched in their homes. They have no motivation to move from low interest rate mortgages.

[David Brancaccio]

The number of existing homes on the market has been increasing from the historic lows of the last couple years, but about 20% of sales are still coming in over asking price, says Louts. And some sellers are pulling their house off the market if offers are too low.

[Carla Javier]

In fact, they're willing to become accidental landlords and to hold onto those properties.

[David Brancaccio]

That could be pushing existing home prices higher. But there are also differences in where new homes are selling that throw the averages off, says Richard Greene, a housing economist at the University of Southern California. Almost 70% of sales last month were in the South.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

They are built in markets that typically.

[Nancy Marshall Genser]

Have much lower house prices than New England New York.

[David Brancaccio]

Still, the softness in new home prices could be a sign the whole market is turning, says Rick Palacios at John Burns Real Estate Consulting.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

Home builders experience it first and react, so it just takes a while longer to actually hit the resale markets, he says.

[David Brancaccio]

The longer mortgage rates stay above 6%, the likelier it is that weakness will spread. I'm Megan McCarty Carino for Marketplace.

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[Sabri Benishour]

The Department of labor has a plan for if the government shuts down. That plan does not include releasing scheduled data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which then we would not get very important data, as in the monthly jobs report that's supposed to come out Friday. We kind of need that to understand the labor market tells us how much workers are earning, the unemployment rate, marketplaces Carla Javier looked into what a delay might mean.

[Carla Javier]

Imagine the job market is a bowl of soup. You could probably figure out just by looking if it's hot or cold or what might be in it.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

But ultimately, probably the best way to figure out what what kind of soup it is and how good it is is just to taste the soup.

[Carla Javier]

Daniel Zhao at Glassdoor says the BLS jobs report is the data equivalent of tasting the job market soup. It's a representative survey comparable over time.

[Megan McCarty Carino]

We have this benchmark to be able to see, okay, well during past recessions or in the run up to past recessions, what were the patterns like and does that compare to what we're seeing right now.

[Carla Javier]

There are other reports, including data expected Wednesday from the payroll company adp. But Jesse Rothstein at UC Berkeley says they aren't substitutes for federal jobs data.

[Jesse Rothstein]

They're quite noisy. They miss large sectors of the economy, and it's much harder for them to track the overall trend.

[Carla Javier]

Rothstein was chief economist at the Department of Labor. He says the impact of any potential data delay depends.

[Jesse Rothstein]

If the numbers come out on Tuesday instead of Friday, that's not tragic event. But if this goes on for more than a few days, then it becomes.

[Carla Javier]

A big problem, rothstein says, potentially pushing back data collection for October. I'm Carla Javier for Marketplace, and in.

[Sabri Benishour]

New York, I'm Sabri Benishour with the Marketplace Morning Report from APM American Public Media.

[David Brancaccio]

Hey, it's David Brancaccio. Marketplace's fall fundraiser ends on Friday, and we're making good progress toward our goal to hear from 2,000 marketplace investors. This is a different kind of goal, one that centers on your participation, whether it's your first ever donation, if you're chipping in again, or if you're starting or increasing a monthly gift. I'm telling you, it all matters more than ever now. So stand up and be counted as a Marketplace investor. And if you can't do it by Friday, go to marketplace.org donate.