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Sabri Benishore
of backup plan for oil supplies. It could soon be under threat as well. From Marketplace, I'm Sabri Ben, ashore in for David Brancaccio. The Iran war continues to escalate. Yemen's Houthis have entered the fight, launching attacks on Israel over the weekend. That raises concerns they could again start disrupting oil and cargo moving through the Red Sea. The Red Sea is Saudi Arabia's backup export channel for some limited amounts of oil, oil and other cargo. Julia Coronado is founder of Macro Policy Perspectives and a professor at UT Austin and is here to talk about it. Good morning, Julia.
Julia Coronado
Good morning.
Sabri Benishore
So now that we've got Houthis on the other side of Saudi Arabia threatening supplies there, what does that mean for oil disruptions and beyond?
Julia Coronado
Yeah, I think the longer this conflict drags on and not only the Strait of Hormuz is closed, but now we're looking at possible disruptions in the Red Sea, the more we worry about disruptions beyond just oil, other industrial products like aluminum and helium, which are necessary for the semiconductor production process, and also consumer goods in the Red Sea. So a much broader potential set of supply chain disruptions is possible.
Sabri Benishore
Does this add to worries about inflation? Or when do we start worrying about economies around the world actually slowing down because of this?
Julia Coronado
Well, the challenge is that both are at risk. This is inflationary. It is also something that can destroy demand and cause recessions certainly in many countries, if not the US So both are concerns. And that's the challenge for central banks. The risks to both sides of their mandates are very high right now.
Sabri Benishore
Later this week we will get a bunch of US Economic data, the jobs report being the big one. Do you think we'll see the war enter into that data in any way?
Julia Coronado
Probably. The March report is a little early to see a war impact. In fact, we're going to have the return of about 30,000 striking workers and a very warm month, probably boosting job gains in March. So I think it's a little bit early to see it in the jobs numbers.
Sabri Benishore
Julia Coronado, founder of Macro Policy Perspectives, thank you so much.
Julia Coronado
My pleasure.
Sabri Benishore
The Trump administration is reversing course on blocking oil shipments to Cuba and will allow Russia to deliver crude oil there. The estimated 730,000 barrels of oil are expected to arrive today. Cuba has been experiencing nationwide blackouts, severe fuel shortages and shutdowns of schools and non essential businesses due to the US blockade.
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Sabri Benishore
in states like California, New York and Washington. There are legislative proposals to introduce new higher taxes on millionaires and billionaires. This is reigniting a very old do the wealthiest of people move away when their taxes go up? And how about the rest of us? William Fry is a demographer at the Brookings Institution. William, good morning.
William Fry
Good morning.
Sabri Benishore
So you know, whenever there are proposals to tax the wealthy in a given city or state, the counterargument is, you know, don't kill the golden goose because they will leave. Do wealthy people flee high tax places for low tax places?
William Fry
Well, it's certainly possible that they do. Many studies have shown that very rich people, when they have to make a decision of where they want to live and there's a significant tax on their income, maybe even on their wealth to some degree, you know, they're going to say, well gee, I, I, I can do better somewhere else and save a lot of my money. But when you're talking about those people, the very high people. This is not a group that, you know, makes a big dent in, you know, the overall state or urban area population. So yeah, it's something to be considered, but let's not overdo it.
Sabri Benishore
What about, you know, the rest of us? There's some research suggesting we are all moving less as a nation. Internal migration is falling. Why is that?
William Fry
Well, if you look at this historically and go Back to the 1950s, about 1/5 of the population moved every year. It's now down to, I think in this last year is maybe 9% rather than 20%. And you know what's changed over time? Well, back in the 1950s, usually you had a single earner family. So you only needed to change one job if you wanted to move. There were many more people who lived in rented homes than in owned homes. Renters are much more likely to move than owners. And fast forward all the way now, people are more stable, they own their homes more quickly. There are, you know, multi earner households and we're becoming an older population and it's really the younger people who move.
Sabri Benishore
When people move, why are they moving?
William Fry
Well, when they move across state lines or across metropolitan areas or labor markets, as we might say, they, they're moving for labor kinds of reasons, to get a new job because they're transferred. Or maybe they think they're going to get a job in this other place. That's a big part of that movement. Some of it is family related too. They're going to move because they want to move in with their relatives or they just got married. And some of it's housing related, especially in high cost housing areas. But if you had to pick one thing, you would have to say it has to some way to do with jobs.
Sabri Benishore
Yeah. So less taxes and more like the cost of everyday living and ability to make a living.
William Fry
Yes, that's right. It has to do with people's general idea of what kind of money are they going to make next year if they can find a job in this place? Or, you know, a lot of people who move are young people when you're in their 20s or early 30s, which is where more than half of the movers are among adults today. I don't think they're thinking that much about the income tax. They're thinking about these other things, their home, their job, their family.
Sabri Benishore
William Fry is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Thank you, William, so much.
William Fry
Sure. Enjoy talking with you.
Sabri Benishore
In New York, I'm Sabri Benishore with the Marketplace Morning Report. From APM American Public Media.
Reema Graj
I'm Reema Graj, and this week on my podcast, this is Uncomfortable. We're looking at the rise of prediction markets where you can bet on everything from sports and pop culture to political headlines. A multi billion dollar industry that's growing at a time when more Americans are questioning the traditional paths to wealth. I feel like the kind of quote unquote, American dream is sort of breaking down. Like, how could I possibly, you know, buy a home, be able to afford having a family? And then they're also going online and seeing people that are claiming to make all this money doing these alternative paths to wealth. Be sure to listen to this week's episode of this Is Uncomfortable on your favorite podcast app.
Episode: No longer a nation of movers
Date: March 30, 2026
Host: Sabri Benishore (in for David Brancaccio)
This episode of the Marketplace Morning Report takes a concise look at key developments in global economics—including renewed supply chain concerns tied to war in the Middle East, a shift in U.S. policy affecting oil shipments to Cuba, and demographic trends highlighting a decline in American internal migration. Special guests Julia Coronado (Macro Policy Perspectives) and William Fry (Brookings Institution) provide expert analysis of these pressing issues.
Guest: Julia Coronado, Macro Policy Perspectives
Timestamp: 00:37 – 03:03
“Yeah, I think the longer this conflict drags on and not only the Strait of Hormuz is closed, but now we're looking at possible disruptions in the Red Sea, the more we worry about disruptions beyond just oil, other industrial products like aluminum and helium, which are necessary for the semiconductor production process, and also consumer goods in the Red Sea. So a much broader potential set of supply chain disruptions is possible.”
(Julia Coronado, 01:22)
“The challenge is that both are at risk. This is inflationary. It is also something that can destroy demand and cause recessions certainly in many countries, if not the US. So both are concerns. And that's the challenge for central banks. The risks to both sides of their mandates are very high right now.”
(Julia Coronado, 02:05)
“The March report is a little early to see a war impact... we're going to have the return of about 30,000 striking workers and a very warm month, probably boosting job gains in March. So I think it's a little bit early to see it in the jobs numbers.”
(Julia Coronado, 02:39)
Host Commentary
Timestamp: 03:04 – 03:42
Guest: William Fry, Brookings Institution
Timestamp: 04:52 – 08:01
“It's certainly possible that they do. Many studies have shown that very rich people...they're going to say, well gee, I, I, I can do better somewhere else and save a lot of my money. But when you're talking about those people, the very high people. This is not a group that, you know, makes a big dent in, you know, the overall state or urban area population.”
(William Fry, 05:27)
“If you look at this historically and go back to the 1950s, about 1/5 of the population moved every year. It's now down to...maybe 9% rather than 20%.”
(William Fry, 06:11)
“When they move across state lines or across metropolitan areas, or labor markets...they're moving for labor kinds of reasons, to get a new job because they're transferred. Or maybe they think they're going to get a job in this other place. That's a big part of that movement.”
(William Fry, 06:58)
“It has to do with people's general idea of what kind of money are they going to make next year...more than half of the movers are among adults today. I don't think they're thinking that much about the income tax. They're thinking about other things, their home, their job, their family.”
(William Fry, 07:34)
Julia Coronado on Dual Risk to Economies:
“The challenge is that both are at risk. This is inflationary. It is also something that can destroy demand and cause recessions certainly in many countries, if not the US. So both are concerns.”
(02:05)
William Fry on American Mobility:
“If you look at this historically and go back to the 1950s, about 1/5 of the population moved every year. It's now down to...maybe 9% rather than 20%.”
(06:11) “I don't think they're thinking that much about the income tax. They're thinking about these other things, their home, their job, their family.”
(07:34)
This episode weaves together global events, shifting U.S. policy, and deep demographic trends, offering insight into the economic currents shaping American life today.