No longer a nation of movers

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report

Episode: No longer a nation of movers
Date: March 30, 2026
Host: Sabri Benishore (in for David Brancaccio)

---

Episode Overview

This episode of the Marketplace Morning Report takes a concise look at key developments in global economics—including renewed supply chain concerns tied to war in the Middle East, a shift in U.S. policy affecting oil shipments to Cuba, and demographic trends highlighting a decline in American internal migration. Special guests Julia Coronado (Macro Policy Perspectives) and William Fry (Brookings Institution) provide expert analysis of these pressing issues.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Geopolitical Conflict and Threats to Oil Supplies

Guest: Julia Coronado, Macro Policy Perspectives
Timestamp: 00:37 – 03:03

• Context: The ongoing Iran war, with Yemen's Houthis joining the conflict by launching attacks on Israel, raises fears of renewed disruptions of oil and cargo in the Red Sea.
• Oil and Industrial Supply Chain Risks:

  “Yeah, I think the longer this conflict drags on and not only the Strait of Hormuz is closed, but now we're looking at possible disruptions in the Red Sea, the more we worry about disruptions beyond just oil, other industrial products like aluminum and helium, which are necessary for the semiconductor production process, and also consumer goods in the Red Sea. So a much broader potential set of supply chain disruptions is possible.”
  (Julia Coronado, 01:22)

• Inflation Pressures and Economic Threats: Coronado notes these disruptions are both “inflationary” and potentially recession-inducing, creating a double burden for central banks trying to maintain economic stability:

  “The challenge is that both are at risk. This is inflationary. It is also something that can destroy demand and cause recessions certainly in many countries, if not the US. So both are concerns. And that's the challenge for central banks. The risks to both sides of their mandates are very high right now.”
  (Julia Coronado, 02:05)

• Short-Term Impact on U.S. Economic Data: Coronado expects limited immediate impact on the March jobs report:

  “The March report is a little early to see a war impact... we're going to have the return of about 30,000 striking workers and a very warm month, probably boosting job gains in March. So I think it's a little bit early to see it in the jobs numbers.”
  (Julia Coronado, 02:39)

---

2. U.S. Policy Shift: Oil to Cuba

Host Commentary
Timestamp: 03:04 – 03:42

• The Trump administration is now allowing Russia to deliver an estimated 730,000 barrels of crude oil to Cuba, reversing a past policy that blocked such shipments.
• Immediate Context: Cuba is facing nationwide blackouts, fuel shortages, and the shutdown of schools and nonessential businesses as a result of the U.S. blockade.

---

3. Are Americans Still a Nation of Movers?

Guest: William Fry, Brookings Institution
Timestamp: 04:52 – 08:01

• Discussion on Wealth Taxes and Mobility: Sabri Benishore asks whether threats of higher taxes in places like California and New York drive wealthy people to move.

  “It's certainly possible that they do. Many studies have shown that very rich people...they're going to say, well gee, I, I, I can do better somewhere else and save a lot of my money. But when you're talking about those people, the very high people. This is not a group that, you know, makes a big dent in, you know, the overall state or urban area population.”
  (William Fry, 05:27)

• Decline in U.S. Internal Migration:

  “If you look at this historically and go back to the 1950s, about 1/5 of the population moved every year. It's now down to...maybe 9% rather than 20%.”
  (William Fry, 06:11)

• Reasons for Reduced Mobility:
  • Multi-earner households make moving more complicated.
  • Much higher rates of homeownership (owners move less than renters).
  • Aging population; younger people move more frequently, so an older nation means less movement overall.
• Why Do Americans Move?

  “When they move across state lines or across metropolitan areas, or labor markets...they're moving for labor kinds of reasons, to get a new job because they're transferred. Or maybe they think they're going to get a job in this other place. That's a big part of that movement.”
  (William Fry, 06:58)

• Taxes Less Important Than Jobs and Cost of Living:

  “It has to do with people's general idea of what kind of money are they going to make next year...more than half of the movers are among adults today. I don't think they're thinking that much about the income tax. They're thinking about other things, their home, their job, their family.”
  (William Fry, 07:34)

---

Notable Quotes

• Julia Coronado on Dual Risk to Economies:

  “The challenge is that both are at risk. This is inflationary. It is also something that can destroy demand and cause recessions certainly in many countries, if not the US. So both are concerns.”
  (02:05)

• William Fry on American Mobility:

  “If you look at this historically and go back to the 1950s, about 1/5 of the population moved every year. It's now down to...maybe 9% rather than 20%.”
  (06:11) “I don't think they're thinking that much about the income tax. They're thinking about these other things, their home, their job, their family.”
  (07:34)

---

Important Segments & Timestamps

• Oil & Red Sea Conflict with Julia Coronado: 00:37 – 03:03
• Cuba Oil Shipment Policy Update: 03:04 – 03:42
• American Internal Migration with William Fry: 04:52 – 08:01

---

Memorable Moments

• Julia Coronado succinctly captures central banks' dilemma facing both inflation and risk of recession (02:05).
• William Fry contextualizes the massive decline in American mobility since the 1950s (06:11).
• The revelation that income tax is not a primary driver for most movers; jobs and affordability matter more (07:34).

---

This episode weaves together global events, shifting U.S. policy, and deep demographic trends, offering insight into the economic currents shaping American life today.

Transcript

[USAA Auto Insurance Announcer]

If you, your parent or spouse served in the military, you could join our family. Our members saved an average of $70 a month on auto insurance when they switched. Tap the banner or visit usaa.com join today to check your eligibility restrictions apply.

[Thumbtack Advertisement Narrator]

Avoiding your unfinished home projects because you're not sure where to start. Thumbtack knows homes so you don't have to don't know the difference between matte, paint, finish and satin or what that clunking sound from your dryer is. With thumbtack, you don't have to be a home pro, you just have to hire one. You can hire top rated pros, price estimates and read reviews all on the app Download Today There is a kind

[Sabri Benishore]

of backup plan for oil supplies. It could soon be under threat as well. From Marketplace, I'm Sabri Ben, ashore in for David Brancaccio. The Iran war continues to escalate. Yemen's Houthis have entered the fight, launching attacks on Israel over the weekend. That raises concerns they could again start disrupting oil and cargo moving through the Red Sea. The Red Sea is Saudi Arabia's backup export channel for some limited amounts of oil, oil and other cargo. Julia Coronado is founder of Macro Policy Perspectives and a professor at UT Austin and is here to talk about it. Good morning, Julia.

[Julia Coronado]

Good morning.

[Sabri Benishore]

So now that we've got Houthis on the other side of Saudi Arabia threatening supplies there, what does that mean for oil disruptions and beyond?

[Julia Coronado]

Yeah, I think the longer this conflict drags on and not only the Strait of Hormuz is closed, but now we're looking at possible disruptions in the Red Sea, the more we worry about disruptions beyond just oil, other industrial products like aluminum and helium, which are necessary for the semiconductor production process, and also consumer goods in the Red Sea. So a much broader potential set of supply chain disruptions is possible.

[Sabri Benishore]

Does this add to worries about inflation? Or when do we start worrying about economies around the world actually slowing down because of this?

[Julia Coronado]

Well, the challenge is that both are at risk. This is inflationary. It is also something that can destroy demand and cause recessions certainly in many countries, if not the US So both are concerns. And that's the challenge for central banks. The risks to both sides of their mandates are very high right now.

[Sabri Benishore]

Later this week we will get a bunch of US Economic data, the jobs report being the big one. Do you think we'll see the war enter into that data in any way?

[Julia Coronado]

Probably. The March report is a little early to see a war impact. In fact, we're going to have the return of about 30,000 striking workers and a very warm month, probably boosting job gains in March. So I think it's a little bit early to see it in the jobs numbers.

[Sabri Benishore]

Julia Coronado, founder of Macro Policy Perspectives, thank you so much.

[Julia Coronado]

My pleasure.

[Sabri Benishore]

The Trump administration is reversing course on blocking oil shipments to Cuba and will allow Russia to deliver crude oil there. The estimated 730,000 barrels of oil are expected to arrive today. Cuba has been experiencing nationwide blackouts, severe fuel shortages and shutdowns of schools and non essential businesses due to the US blockade.

[Dell Advertisement Narrator]

Dell PCs with Intel inside are built for the moments that matter, for the moments you plan and the ones you don't. Built for the busy days that turn into all night study sessions. The moment you're working from a cafe and realize every outlet's taken. The times you're deep in your flow and the absolute last thing you need is an auto update throwing off your momentum. That's why Dell builds tech that adapts to the way you actually work. Built with long lasting battery so you're not scrambling for the closest outlet. And built in intelligence that makes updates around your schedule, not in the middle of it. They don't build tech for tech's sake, they build it for you. Find technology built for the way you [e-mail] DellPCS built for you.

[USAA Auto Insurance Announcer]

If you, your parent or spouse served in the military, you could join our family. Our members saved an average of $70 a month on auto insurance when they switched. Tap the banner or visit usaa.com join today to check your eligibility. Restrictions apply

[Sabri Benishore]

in states like California, New York and Washington. There are legislative proposals to introduce new higher taxes on millionaires and billionaires. This is reigniting a very old do the wealthiest of people move away when their taxes go up? And how about the rest of us? William Fry is a demographer at the Brookings Institution. William, good morning.

[William Fry]

Good morning.

[Sabri Benishore]

So you know, whenever there are proposals to tax the wealthy in a given city or state, the counterargument is, you know, don't kill the golden goose because they will leave. Do wealthy people flee high tax places for low tax places?

[William Fry]

Well, it's certainly possible that they do. Many studies have shown that very rich people, when they have to make a decision of where they want to live and there's a significant tax on their income, maybe even on their wealth to some degree, you know, they're going to say, well gee, I, I, I can do better somewhere else and save a lot of my money. But when you're talking about those people, the very high people. This is not a group that, you know, makes a big dent in, you know, the overall state or urban area population. So yeah, it's something to be considered, but let's not overdo it.

[Sabri Benishore]

What about, you know, the rest of us? There's some research suggesting we are all moving less as a nation. Internal migration is falling. Why is that?

[William Fry]

Well, if you look at this historically and go Back to the 1950s, about 1/5 of the population moved every year. It's now down to, I think in this last year is maybe 9% rather than 20%. And you know what's changed over time? Well, back in the 1950s, usually you had a single earner family. So you only needed to change one job if you wanted to move. There were many more people who lived in rented homes than in owned homes. Renters are much more likely to move than owners. And fast forward all the way now, people are more stable, they own their homes more quickly. There are, you know, multi earner households and we're becoming an older population and it's really the younger people who move.

[Sabri Benishore]

When people move, why are they moving?

[William Fry]

Well, when they move across state lines or across metropolitan areas or labor markets, as we might say, they, they're moving for labor kinds of reasons, to get a new job because they're transferred. Or maybe they think they're going to get a job in this other place. That's a big part of that movement. Some of it is family related too. They're going to move because they want to move in with their relatives or they just got married. And some of it's housing related, especially in high cost housing areas. But if you had to pick one thing, you would have to say it has to some way to do with jobs.

[Sabri Benishore]

Yeah. So less taxes and more like the cost of everyday living and ability to make a living.

[William Fry]

Yes, that's right. It has to do with people's general idea of what kind of money are they going to make next year if they can find a job in this place? Or, you know, a lot of people who move are young people when you're in their 20s or early 30s, which is where more than half of the movers are among adults today. I don't think they're thinking that much about the income tax. They're thinking about these other things, their home, their job, their family.

[Sabri Benishore]

William Fry is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Thank you, William, so much.

[William Fry]

Sure. Enjoy talking with you.

[Sabri Benishore]

In New York, I'm Sabri Benishore with the Marketplace Morning Report. From APM American Public Media.

[Reema Graj]

I'm Reema Graj, and this week on my podcast, this is Uncomfortable. We're looking at the rise of prediction markets where you can bet on everything from sports and pop culture to political headlines. A multi billion dollar industry that's growing at a time when more Americans are questioning the traditional paths to wealth. I feel like the kind of quote unquote, American dream is sort of breaking down. Like, how could I possibly, you know, buy a home, be able to afford having a family? And then they're also going online and seeing people that are claiming to make all this money doing these alternative paths to wealth. Be sure to listen to this week's episode of this Is Uncomfortable on your favorite podcast app.