"Nobody can time the market"

Summary

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Marketplace Morning Report: "Nobody can time the market"

Date: April 10, 2026
Host: David Brancaccio
Guest: Dr. Burton Malkiel (Princeton Professor Emeritus, Author of A Random Walk Down Wall Street)
Episode Theme:
This episode dives into current inflationary pressures tied to oil market disruptions, then features David Brancaccio’s final interview as host—a conversation with legendary economist Burton Malkiel on why it’s nearly impossible to consistently beat the market, reinforcing the wisdom of index fund investing.

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Inflation Update: Energy Prices and Economic Uncertainty

Key Points & Insights:

• Current Price Moves: Ongoing Middle East conflict is blocking oil shipments and driving up energy prices.
• March Consumer Price Index (CPI):
  • Gasoline prices expected to spike 23% (01:23, Nancy Marshall Genser).
  • Goldman Sachs: Airfares up 4%; inflation rate for March projected at almost 3.5%.
• Future Expectations:
  • More increases anticipated in April, possibly pushing “headline CPI inflation to about 4%” (01:40, Nancy Marshall Genser).
  • As of recording, oil is at $97.86 a barrel, up from $67 prior to conflict escalation (01:55, David Brancaccio).

Memorable Quote:

• “The overall inflation rate will rise by 1% ... driven mostly by an expected 23% spike in gas prices.”
  — Nancy Marshall Genser (01:23)

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Main Interview: Burton Malkiel on Beating the Market

Background

David Brancaccio interviews Dr. Burton Malkiel, whose influential book, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, has shaped how Americans think about investing for over 50 years.

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Why You Can’t Beat the Market

Key Insights:

• Basic Thesis: Consistently beating the market averages by picking individual stocks is nearly impossible—even for professionals.
• Index Funds:
  • “A simple so-called index fund ... does actually better than professional money managers.” (03:40, Burton Malkiel)
  • The market’s collective judgment outperforms most individual managers in the long run.

Memorable Quote:

• “With over 50 years of experience, we know that a simple so-called index fund ... does actually better than professional money managers.”
  — Burton Malkiel (03:40)

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You Still Need to Pay Attention—But Don’t Try to Time the Market

Key Points:

• Keep an eye on your portfolio and rebalance, but resist the urge to jump in and out based on volatility.
• Timing the Market:
  • “Nobody can time the market ... never, never, never think that you will be able to time the market and get in and out of stocks at the right time.”
    — Burton Malkiel (04:44)

Example:

• Referencing a recent tariff announcement:
  • Panic-driven sells followed by a quick rebound once policies were reversed, illustrating the futility of short-term tactical moves.

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On “Geniuses” and Market Inefficiencies

Key Discussion:

• Some legendary investors (like Jim Simons) have built fortunes exploiting temporary inefficiencies.
• But: These inefficiencies dissipate as more people try to take advantage.
  • Example: The so-called “Christmas rally” in stocks; as more act on it, the opportunity vanishes.
• Risk: Many active managers who chase such strategies eventually go bankrupt.

Notable Quote:

• “To the extent that an inefficiency arises and someone can take advantage of it temporarily, it will eventually disappear.”
  — Burton Malkiel (06:01)

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Episode Wrap-Up & Host’s Transition

• David Brancaccio’s final episode as host: Announces move to a senior correspondent role covering “future effects ... taking the long view.”
• Reflections: He cites Kurt Vonnegut’s idea of having a “secretary of the future” and expresses excitement about his new beat.

Notable Quote:

• “Author and social critic Kurt Vonnegut once suggested ... what we need is a secretary of the future. So I'm going to give it a whirl.”
  — David Brancaccio (07:59)

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Timestamps for Major Segments

• Inflation update: 01:01 — 01:55
• Burton Malkiel interview: 02:53 — 07:33
• Host transition and closing remarks: 07:34 — 08:20

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Memorable Quotes & Attribution

• “With over 50 years of experience, we know that a simple so-called index fund ... does actually better than professional money managers.” (03:40, Burton Malkiel)
• “Never, never, never think that you will be able to time the market and get in and out of stocks at the right time.” (04:44, Burton Malkiel)
• “To the extent that an inefficiency arises and someone can take advantage of it temporarily, it will eventually disappear.” (06:01, Burton Malkiel)
• “What we need is a secretary of the future. So I'm going to give it a whirl.” (07:59, David Brancaccio)

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Summary Takeaways

• The episode highlights renewed inflation concerns driven by energy markets, and revisits the timeless lesson that, outside brief inefficiencies, the average investor is best served by staying invested in low-cost index funds and not trying to outsmart the market.
• Brancaccio’s final sign-off marks a transition from daily hosting to in-depth, future-focused reporting.

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Transcript

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[David Brancaccio]

We hear from many experts trying to beat the market today. The man who's warned for half a century that it can't be done. I'm David Brancaccio in Los Angeles. First, we'll get a look today at how conflict in the Middle east blocking oil shipments and raising energy prices is shaping US Inflation. Mark Marketplace's Nancy Marshall Genser is watching for the March Consumer price index.

[Nancy Marshall Genser]

The overall inflation rate will rise by 1% according to Pantheon Macroeconomics, driven mostly by an expected 23% spike in gas prices. Goldman Sachs economists predict higher oil prices pushed up airfares by 4%. They expect an overall inflation rate of almost 3.5% from March. And they think energy prices will shoot up again this month. But bringing headline CPI inflation to about 4% for April. I'm Nancy Marshall Genser for Marketplace.

[David Brancaccio]

To be clear, the big route for oil, the Strait of Hormuz, is still closed and oil is up slightly this morning, $97.86 a barrel. It was $67 before the US and Israel launched against Iran. Stock index futures are little changed. Ahead of that infl.

[Maggie Smith]

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[David Brancaccio]

Today's my last day hosting the Marketplace morning report here. But first, a last interview. I thought why not catch up with the author of what is arguably the most influential book on personal finance and investing of all time. First published in 1973. A random walk Down Wall street argues that it's super hard to beat the stock market. Its author, Burton Malkiel, Princeton Professor Emeritus, still at it at 93. He joins us from New Jersey. Dr. Malkiel, welcome.

[Burton Malkiel]

Delighted to be with you.

[David Brancaccio]

13 editions of Random Walk. I have my dog eared copy. I gave a gift of your book to my kids when they were starting out. But for those new to it, professor, you make the case that. What? It's pretty darn hard to beat the market averages by picking individual stocks.

[Burton Malkiel]

This was my thesis over 50 years ago. When the book first came out, it was not really accepted. At that time a lot of professionals thought this was nonsense. But the fact of the matter is that with over 50 years of experience, we know that a simple so called index fund, by which we mean a fund that buys all of the stocks in the stock market does actually better than professional money managers. It's not that it's always right, but that the judgment of the market has been consistently shown to be better than the judgment of individual active managers.

[David Brancaccio]

Now, none of this means you shouldn't tend to your portfolio, keep an eye on it, rebalance it, don't just set it and forget it.

[Burton Malkiel]

About a year ago, we had the President announce Liberation Day. Huge tariffs on all foreign countries. The market collapsed that day and a lot of active managers said, oh my God, it's the end of the world. We've got to go and sell all of our stocks. And then a week later, the President reversed himself and the market went back up. This is the problem. Nobody can time the market. And so yes, you ought to look at your investments, you absolutely ought to care for them. But never, never, never think that you will be able to time the market and get in and out of stocks at the right time.

[David Brancaccio]

I'm thinking of somebody though. I mean, you do acknowledge that some people are okay at this. Some people have figured it out, it seems. How to beat the market. You must have known the late Jim Simons, the mathematician at Stony Brook and hedge fund manager at Renaissance Technologies. I mean, he made a fortune for his investors taking advantage of market inefficiencies that his mathematical models seem to identify.

[Burton Malkiel]

To the extent that an inefficiency arises and someone can take advantage of it temporarily, it will eventually disappear. For example, over time, people determined that there was a so called Christmas rally in the stock market, that is that the stock market would go up between Christmas and New Year's. Well, if that's true, what do I do as an active manager? What I do is I buy the day before Christmas and I sell the day before New Year's. But then I realized because other people are doing this, I have to go and buy two days before Christmas and sell two days before New Year's and eventually that quote, inefficiency will disappear. It is true that some active managers have taken a lot of risk and have been right, but it's also true that a lot of hedge fund managers have taken these kinds of risks and have gone bankruptcy.

[David Brancaccio]

Burton Malkiel, the author of what many consider the most influential book about investing of all time. It's called A Random Walk Down Wall street. More than 2 million copies in print. He's professor emeritus of economics at Princeton. Dr. Malkiel, thank you so much for this.

[Burton Malkiel]

My pleasure.

[David Brancaccio]

My full conversation with Dr. Malkiel is streamable from marketplace.org I'm going to keep it with me at all times. It includes what to do if you think we're living in an AI bubble right now. Spoiler alert. The answer is not a lot. As for me, I'm staying at Marketplace, but just not waking up at 2am Pacific. I'm excited to move into a senior correspondent role here covering future effects for us, taking the long view on policy, innovation and personal finance. Author and social critic Kurt Vonnegut once suggested in an interview with me that what we need is a secretary of the future. So I'm going to give it a whirl. I'm David Brancaccio. Talk with you soon from APM American Public Media.

[Maggie Smith]

I'm Maggie Smith, host of the Slowdown, where each morning I invite you to step away from your to do list and spend a few minutes with a moment of reflection and a poem from both beloved and emerging voices. Make it part of your morning ritual on a walk, over breakfast or while you get ready for the day. It's a daily moment of pause in a world that never stops moving. Find the Slowdown Wherever you listen to podcasts.