Oil prices and war in the Middle East

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report: Oil Prices and Middle East Conflict

Date: March 9, 2026
Host: Sabri Benishour (in for David Brancaccio)
Key Guest: Julia Coronado, Macro Policy Perspectives
Additional Reporting: Nancy Marshall Genser, Carlos Morales

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Episode Overview

This episode centers on the rapid surge in oil prices, the economic effects for consumers and global economies, and responses by world governments amid recent turmoil in the Middle East. The show also briefly covers a new agricultural threat in Texas. The main discussion features expert analysis from Julia Coronado and examines potential international efforts to stabilize oil prices by tapping into emergency reserves.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Oil Price Spike and Its Effects

• Context: Oil prices approached $120/barrel, settling just above $100 the morning of the episode. Gasoline prices followed, reaching $3.25/gallon—up $0.27 in just a week ([00:53]).

• Consumer Impact: Julia Coronado explains the immediate effect on household budgets and overall consumer spending.

  "For the average consumer, it's going to mean substantially higher gasoline prices. And so that's something most people have to buy every week, and that is going to crimp the rest of their budget."
  — Julia Coronado [01:45]

• Inflation and Economic Growth: A discussion on whether the U.S. economy is less sensitive to oil spikes now than in the past.

  "If there's a substantial rise in gasoline prices, we do tend to see an effect on consumer spending. And I think certainly the oil prices we're looking at right now reach that threshold."
  — Julia Coronado [02:23]

2. Global Political and Economic Response

• Emergency Meeting: Representatives from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K., and the U.S. are convening to consider a coordinated release from strategic oil reserves ([02:54]).

• Potential Oil Reserve Release: The International Energy Agency could oversee the release of 300–400 million barrels (about 25–30% of reserves).

  "Any release of stockpiled oil would be coordinated by the International Energy Agency, which works to ensure steady oil supplies during energy shocks."
  — Nancy Marshall Genser [03:12]

• Historical Precedent: Past coordinated oil releases happened during crises like the 1974 Arab oil embargo and after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

• Presidential Statement: President Trump's social media comment is cited on whether high oil prices are "a very small price to pay for, quote, world safety and Peace" ([03:55]).

3. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Julia Coronado on Consumer Pain:

  "It's going to mean substantially higher gasoline prices... that's going to crimp the rest of their budget." [01:45]

• On Potential for Oil to Drive Inflation:

  "We would expect to see some hit to consumer spending just from the budget bite that higher gas prices bring." [02:23]

• Nancy Marshall Genser on Oil Reserve Release:

  "The Financial Times reports some U.S. officials are talking about a coordinated release of 300 to 400 million barrels of oil." [03:30]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [00:53] — Sabri Benishour summarizes the morning's oil price surge and introduces Julia Coronado.
• [01:32] — Julia Coronado joins to analyze implications for consumers.
• [02:23] — Discussion on oil's impact on overall economic growth.
• [02:54] — Details on emergency G7 meeting and possible oil reserve releases.
• [03:12] — Nancy Marshall Genser explains the logistics and history of oil reserve releases.
• [03:55] — President Trump's statement and its interpretation.

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Additional Stories (Briefs)

The New World Screwworm Threat to Texas Cattle

• [04:50] — Carlos Morales reports on the re-emergence of a flesh-eating parasite, the New World Screw Worm, near the Texas border, threatening ranchers and the broader cattle industry.
• Economic risk: A $1.8 billion potential blow to Texas cattle if not contained.
• Mitigation Efforts: The USDA is using sterilized screwworms to halt the spread; a new sterile fly facility in South Texas is operational.

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Summary

This Marketplace Morning Report succinctly covers the economic consequences of a sharp rise in oil prices triggered by Middle East conflict and how coordinated international action might smooth global energy shocks. With expert input from Julia Coronado, listeners gain an understanding of the squeeze consumers may face and the potential macroeconomic repercussions. The episode balances macroeconomics with a look at agricultural risks—showing real-time, multi-faceted threats to both wallets and industries.

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For those who missed this episode:
You’ll come away understanding why oil prices shot up, how that hits your finances, what world leaders are considering to mitigate the crisis, and why the situation matters for inflation and global stability—delivered in the program’s accessible, efficient tone.

Transcript

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[Sabri Benishour]

As oil prices rise, countries may turn to reserves. From Marketplace, I'm Sabri Benishour in for David Brancaccio or Oil prices came close to hitting $120 a barrel yesterday. This morning they've come back down a little, but they are still just above $100 a barrel. Gas prices have also wasted no time in rising. The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline is now $3.25 a gallon, according to AAA, up 27 cents in a week. Julia Coronado is here to talk about it. She's founder and president of Macro Policy Perspectives and a professor at the University of Texas, Austin. Hi Julia.

[Julia Coronado]

Good morning.

[Sabri Benishour]

So oil prices went a little nuts. In a truth social post yesterday, President Trump said that $100 barrel of oil, at least short term, is a very small price to pay. Is that a small price to pay

[Julia Coronado]

for the average consumer? It's going to mean substantially higher gasoline prices. And so that's something most people have to buy every week and that is going to crimp the rest of their budget. The purchasing power for other things and so really depends on how important getting around is to you. But for a lot of people it's going to be a pretty big bite.

[Sabri Benishour]

How much might this add to overall inflation and potentially drag down economic growth? One reason I ask is because some folks are making the argument that, you know, the US Economy isn't as oil sensitive as it used to be. Maybe this won't be so bad.

[Julia Coronado]

What do you think for consumers, if there's a substantial rise in gasoline prices, we do tend to see an effect on consumer spending. And I think certainly the oil prices we're looking at right now reach that threshold. So we would expect to see some hit to consumer spending just from the budget bite that higher gas prices bring.

[Sabri Benishour]

Julia Coronado is founder and president of Macro Policy Perspectives. Thank you as always.

[Julia Coronado]

My pleasure.

[Sabri Benishour]

In response to surging oil and gas prices, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US Are having an emergency meeting this morning to talk about possibly releasing oil reserves from their strategic stockpiles to soften this oil price spike. Marketplace's Nancy Marshall Genser has more.

[Nancy Marshall Genser]

Any release of stockpiled oil would be coordinated by the International Energy Agency, which works to ensure steady oil supplies during energy shocks. The idea is to increase the supply and pressure oil prices down. The Financial Times reports that some U.S. officials are talking about a coordinated release of 300 to 400 million barrels of oil. That would be 25 to 30% of the total oil reserve. There have been five collective oil releases since the International Energy Agency was founded in 1974 in response to the Arab oil embargo. The last two releases were meant to tamp down prices after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In a social media post yesterday, President Trump said short term oil prices were a very small price to pay for, quote, world safety and Peace. I'm Nancy Marshall Genser for Marketplace.

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[Sabri Benishour]

Heads up some of the descriptions in the next story are kind of gross. We're going to hear about a flesh eating parasite. The New World Screw Worm has been eradicated from the US for some 60 plus years, but in recent months it has been detected as close as 70 miles from the US Mexico border and it has been causing some serious concern across the state of Texas for what it could mean for the cattle industry. Carlos Morales reports.

[Carlos Morales]

As a kid growing up in far West Texas, Joe Williams would have to look over the family's livestock to make sure they weren't infected with screwworm larvae. If you come up on one that has been flystruck, you know it immediately. You can smell it. At the time, the New World Screwworm was a common and devastating reality of ranching. The parasites, named for the way its larva Dig or screw into the living flesh of warm blooded animals, causing nasty, painful lesions. It's putrid. I mean, super putrid. While the days of monitoring livestock and treating them for screwworm have been over for decades, now a possible return is making folks in the cattle industry anxious. The Department of Agriculture says an outbreak today could deal a $1.8 billion blow to the Texas economy.

[Julia Coronado]

Worst case scenario, you lose all your cattle.

[Carlos Morales]

Jana Stubbs runs a cow calf operation with her husband just outside of Alpine, Texas.

[Julia Coronado]

Absolute worst case scenario, you go out

[Strayer University Announcer]

of business and you can't afford to get back into the business.

[Carlos Morales]

The Stubbs, like so many other ranchers, have weathered droughts and rising production costs. And now they're thinking about what to do if a screwworm outbreak were to happen. And for the last year, so is the usda. The parasite has infected thousands of cattle in Mexico, and in early February, it was detected in a Mexican state bordering Texas. Concern over the parasite spreading led the US to stop importing cattle and livestock from Mexico. Typically a million cross every year. Philip Kaufman is a professor at Texas A and M University. It by no means is doomsday. I am cautiously optimistic. Kaufman's an entomologist and is part of the team assembled to figure out the state's response to the new World screwworm. He says to eradicate the fly, the US is doing what it did back in the 60s. Engineer sterile male screwworms to mate with females that'll lay unfertilized eggs that won't hatch. The plan eventually is to be producing 500 million sterile flies per week. Ultimately, the population should die out. USDA has already opened a new sterile fly facility in South Texas and plans to open another. Kaufman says it's the state's and country's biggest asset against the screwworm. In Alpine Texas, I'm Carlos Morales for

[Sabri Benishour]

Marketplace, and in New York, I'm Sabree Benishore with the Marketplace morning Report from 8pm American Public Media.

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