Should we expect USPS to make money?

Summary

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Marketplace Morning Report

Episode: Should we expect USPS to make money?

Date: March 20, 2026
Host: Nancy Marshall Genser (in for David Brancaccio)

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Episode Overview

This episode tackles the ongoing financial crisis at the U.S. Postal Service (USPS), questioning whether the USPS should be expected to operate as a profitable business or be viewed as an essential public service. Expert guests discuss the growing financial shortfall, the challenges behind balancing costs and revenues, and the historic tension between service obligations and fiscal reality. The second half of the episode highlights how the ongoing war in the Middle East is driving up costs for American farmers, particularly for fertilizer and diesel, threatening their outlooks and profitability.

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Main Segment: USPS Financial Crisis

[01:02–03:01]

Key Discussion Points

• Severity of the Crisis

  • USPS faces a “severe financial crisis” and could run out of cash within a year without major interventions ([01:02]).

  • USPS reported a $9 billion loss in the last fiscal year; historically, annual losses averaged $4.5–5 billion ([01:27]).

    “I remember when the average losses were 4.5 or 5 billion, but now the losses are increasing over time.”
    — Rick Geddes (Cornell), [01:31]

• Universal Service Obligation

  • USPS is legally required to deliver mail to every address six days a week, which creates high and inflexible baseline costs ([01:45]).

    “It's basically to deliver the mail to every address it can six days a week… all the trucks run six days a week, the carriers walk their routes.”
    — Rick Geddes, [01:45–01:55]

• Revenue Challenges

  • Mail volume is declining rapidly, and regulatory price caps limit how much USPS can adjust stamp prices ([02:00]).

    • Legislation restricts their ability to raise significant new revenue.

    “A combination of the price cap and the declining volumes hit the Post Office quite hard.”
    — Jim Campbell (lawyer, consultant), [02:11]

• Potential Solutions Considered

  • Reduce delivery days, close rural/remote post offices, raise stamp prices (to $1 or more), or implement major financial reforms ([02:15]).
  • Realistically, revenues are unlikely to ever exceed costs under the current framework.

• Should USPS Be Profitable?

  • Broader philosophical question: Is USPS a business, or a public service like the Forest Service or Weather Service?

  • James O’Rourke of Notre Dame emphasizes public value over profitability:

    “We don’t ask the Forest Service or the Weather Service to make money. They are a service to the people of the United States. It would be nice if the Postal Service could break even or at least come close.”
    — James O’Rourke, [02:37]

  • Any meaningful solution requires substantial political action and decisions from Congress.

    “That … would take some heavy lifting on Congress’s part.”
    — James O’Rourke, [02:53]

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Brief Update: Student Loan Portfolio Changes

[03:01–03:38]

• The U.S. Education Department is transferring management of defaulted student loans to the Treasury Department.
• This is seen as the first step toward the Education Department exiting all federal student loan management, in line with current administration plans ([03:01]).

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Second Segment: War in the Middle East and U.S. Agriculture

[04:38–07:50]

Key Discussion Points

• Economic Ripple Effects

  • War has driven up fertilizer (by 25%) and diesel (over $5/gallon) prices for American farmers ([05:30]).

  • Farmers are facing “tens of thousands” in additional costs, with low optimism for recovering these expenses through yield ([05:20],[05:47]).

    “We put a very large sum of our own money into the crop last year and we didn’t get any nickel of it back, so it’s very concerning.”
    — Casey Smith (rice farmer, Texas), [05:20]

    "There's zero chance that our yield will make up that extra expense. There's zero chance.”
    — Casey Smith, [05:47]

• Limited Options for Farmers

  • Many farmers cannot pass these added costs to the market, as prices are set globally ([06:23]).

  • Resulting in choices to reduce fertilizer use or postpone equipment repairs, which may impact future yields ([06:31]).

    “I have no way of passing the cost off. Our corn is priced in a global marketplace. I just have to take it on the chin that way.”
    — D. Vaughn (farmer, Texas Panhandle), [06:23]

• Concern for Farming's Future

  • Older farmers worry about younger farmers' ability to withstand these shocks ([06:47]).

    “Some of them may not make it. And those of us that are, you know, 60 plus that are looking at, you know, well, who's going to farm this ground when we're gone? That's, that's what we have to be concerned about.”
    — D. Vaughn, [06:47]

• Global Fertilizer Shortage

  • Middle East is a crucial fertilizer producer; disruptions are affecting global supply right at peak usage season ([07:09]).

    “There is a huge volume that’s not making it through to the customer. And this is all at a time when we are in peak season for application for the US, for Europe, India.”
    — Julia Meehan (ICIS), [07:09]

  • Ongoing supply issues could escalate prices further and force farmers to cut back, which may lower crop yields and boost consumer food prices ([07:27]).

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On USPS as a Service vs. Business:

  “We don’t ask the Forest Service or the Weather Service to make money. They are a service…”
  — James O’Rourke, [02:37]

• On Farmer Anxiety:

  “Honestly, I don’t feel very positive about it.”
  — Casey Smith, [05:05]

• On Inevitable Losses:

  “There’s zero chance that our yield will make up that extra expense. There’s zero chance.”
  — Casey Smith, [05:47]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:02] – Main segment opens: Should USPS be expected to make money?
• [01:27–02:53] – USPS financial analysis and expert insights.
• [03:01] – Brief: Student loan portfolio moves.
• [04:38–07:50] – War in the Middle East and impact on American agriculture.
• [07:09] – Fertilizer shortage explained.
• [07:37] – Impact of inflated costs on food prices discussed.

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Tone and Style

The episode is factual yet urgent, with a focus on complex economic tradeoffs and personal impacts. The expert voices provide practical, sometimes sobering insights about longstanding government services and the downstream effects of global conflict. The hosts and reporters maintain a clear, accessible tone throughout.

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Transcript

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[Marketplace Host Nancy Marshall Genser]

expect the Postal Service to make money? From Marketplace I'm Nancy Marshall Genser in for David Brancaccio. The Postal Service says it's facing a severe financial crisis. Postmaster General David Steiner testified before a House subcommittee this week. He said the USPS was struggling and could be out of cash in less than 12 months unless something changes. Marketplace's Carla Javier has more.

[Marketplace Reporter Carla Javier]

The USPS says it lost $9 billion last fiscal year.

[Rick Geddes / Jim Campbell / James O'Rourke (Experts)]

I remember when the Average losses were 4.5 or 5 billion, but now the losses are increasing over time.

[Marketplace Reporter Carla Javier]

That's Rick Geddes at Cornell. On the cost side, he says USPS has a universal service obligation.

[Rick Geddes / Jim Campbell / James O'Rourke (Experts)]

It's basically to deliver the mail to every address it can six days a week.

[Marketplace Reporter Carla Javier]

And that can get expensive to have

[Rick Geddes / Jim Campbell / James O'Rourke (Experts)]

all the trucks run six days a week to have the carriers who walk their routes.

[Marketplace Reporter Carla Javier]

On the revenue side, lawyer and consultant Jim Campbell says letter volume has gone down precipitously and legislation limits the Postal Service's ability to raise prices.

[Rick Geddes / Jim Campbell / James O'Rourke (Experts)]

So a combination of the price cap and the declining volumes hit the Post Office quite hard.

[Marketplace Reporter Carla Javier]

The postmaster general said Congress and the USPS could consider reducing the days of delivery, closing offices in rural or remote areas, raising stamp prices to a dollar or more, or significant financial reforms. But with revenues unlikely to exceed costs. James o' Rourke at Notre Dame says Congress has to decide if it wants a Postal Service at all.

[James O'Rourke (Notre Dame Expert)]

We don't ask the Forest Service or the weather Service to make money. They are a service to the people of the United States. It would be nice if the Postal Service could break even or at least come close.

[Marketplace Reporter Carla Javier]

But that, o' Rourke says, would take some heavy lifting on Congress's part. I'm Carla Javier from Marketplace the Education

[Marketplace Host Nancy Marshall Genser]

Department is offloading part of its student loan portfolio. The Treasury Department will take over management of defaulted student loans where borrowers are months behind on their payments. It's the Education Department's first step towards shedding management of all all federal student loans. The Trump administration plans to shutter the agency.

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LifeLock how can I help?

[Identity Theft Victim]

The IRS said I filed my return,

[LifeLock Representative]

but I haven't 1 in 4 tax paying Americans has paid the price of identity fraud.

[Identity Theft Victim]

But what do I do?

[Marketplace Host Nancy Marshall Genser]

My refund though. I'm freaking out.

[LifeLock Support Agent]

Don't worry, I can fix this.

[LifeLock Representative]

LifeLock fixes identity theft guaranteed and gets your money back with up to $3 million in coverage.

[Identity Theft Victim]

I'm so relieved.

[LifeLock Representative]

No problem.

[LifeLock Assistant]

I'll be with you every step of the way.

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[Marketplace Host Nancy Marshall Genser]

The war in the Middle east is taking an economic toll on Americans. That includes the American farmer who's dealing with higher diesel and fertil. Marketplace's Elizabeth Troval has more on how the war is affecting agriculture.

[Marketplace Reporter Elizabeth Trovall]

It's planting season for a lot of American farmers, which often brings renewed optimism about the upcoming year's harvest. But when I asked rice farmer Casey Smith about his outlook for this year,

[LifeLock Assistant]

honestly, I don't feel very positive about it.

[Marketplace Reporter Elizabeth Trovall]

We're standing in his newly planted rice crop in Brazoria county, south of Houston. The green blades of the rice plant are about 3 inches high in straight rows across the dirt.

[LifeLock Assistant]

It's honestly nerve wracking. We put a very large sum of our own money into the crop last year and we didn't get any nickel of it back, so it's very concerning.

[Marketplace Reporter Elizabeth Trovall]

He worries about the tens of thousands of extra dollars he's likely going to have to spend on his farm with the 25% or so jump in his fertilizer price and diesel prices surpassing $5 a G since the war started less than three weeks ago.

[LifeLock Assistant]

We already had this planted when that happened, you know, it happened afterwards. So what do you do now? You know, it's out of our control. We have zero control and there's zero chance that our yield will make up that extra expense. There's zero chance.

[Marketplace Reporter Elizabeth Trovall]

Further north, in the Texas panhandle, D. Vaughn grows corn, grain, sorghum, wheat and cotton.

[Rick Geddes / Jim Campbell / James O'Rourke (Experts)]

We are second generation Texas farmers. My grandparents farmed in Oklahoma.

[Marketplace Reporter Elizabeth Trovall]

He'll plant his corn, cotton and grain sorghum later this spring. He's also concerned about how the increased cost of fertilizer and diesel will hit his bottom line.

[Rick Geddes / Jim Campbell / James O'Rourke (Experts)]

I have no way of passing the cost off. Our corn is priced in a global marketplace. I just have to take it on the chin that way.

[Marketplace Reporter Elizabeth Trovall]

He says he may cut back on using fertilizer or delay repairing or replacing some of his equipment.

[Rick Geddes / Jim Campbell / James O'Rourke (Experts)]

You just have to kind of roll with the punches.

[Marketplace Reporter Elizabeth Trovall]

He says he's better situated financially to weather this storm. But he wonders about the younger generation of farmers.

[Rick Geddes / Jim Campbell / James O'Rourke (Experts)]

Some of them may not make it. And those of us that are, you know, 60 plus that are looking at, you know, well, who's going to farm this ground when we're gone? That's, that's what we have to be concerned about.

[Marketplace Reporter Elizabeth Trovall]

Around the world, farmers are feeling the impacts of the war. The Middle east is a major fertilizer producing region. According to Julia Meehan with icis.

[Rick Geddes / Jim Campbell / James O'Rourke (Experts)]

There is a huge volume that's not making it through to the customer. And this is all of a time when we are in peak season for application for the US For Europe, India.

[Marketplace Reporter Elizabeth Trovall]

And she says this could ultimately reduce demand for fertilizer.

[Rick Geddes / Jim Campbell / James O'Rourke (Experts)]

If this conflict continues in the Middle East, I think these prices will go higher. But to what point will then the farmer say, enough is enough, we can't afford this anymore.

[Marketplace Reporter Elizabeth Trovall]

Cutting down on fertilizer would hurt crop yields, and that could eventually trickle down to higher food prices for consumers. I'm Elizabeth Trovall for Marketplace.

[Marketplace Host Nancy Marshall Genser]

Marketplace exists to help you stay informed about the economy. And you can put that knowledge to the test. Every Friday, we publish a news quiz online. Find it on our website marketplace.org quiz our executive producer is Nancy Fargali. Our digital team includes Antoinette Brock, Emily McCune and Dylan Mietanen. Our engineers are Tessa Block and David Schreck. In Washington, I'm Nancy Marshall Genzer with the Marketplace morning report from APM American public media.

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