Skyrocketing health insurance premiums for millions after today

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report: "Skyrocketing health insurance premiums for millions after today"

Date: December 31, 2025
Host: Nova Safo (in for David Brancaccio)
Guest: Nancy Marshall Genzer
BBC Contributor: Will Chalk
Length of core content: approx. 8 minutes

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Overview of the Episode

This episode centers on urgent economic changes taking effect as 2025 wraps up, with a crisp focus on two developing stories:

1. The expiration of expanded subsidies for Affordable Care Act (ACA) health insurance and the resulting spike in premiums for millions of Americans.
2. A look back at 2025’s economic trends, particularly the rapid evolution and controversy surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) and its impact on the economy, trust, and creative industries.

The show also briefly discusses Mexico’s new tariff policy with global trade implications.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Skyrocketing Health Insurance Premiums (Main Story)

Segment Starts: [00:59]

• Background: Enhanced subsidies for ACA (Obamacare) health plans, expanded during the pandemic, are expiring at the end of December 2025.
• Premium Impact:
  • Premiums are expected to more than double for many enrollees.
  • "The average premium will go from $888 annually this year to around $1,900 in 2026." (Nancy Marshall Genzer, [01:28])
  • Source: Nonpartisan KFF (Kaiser Family Foundation)
• Who is Hit Hardest:
  • Middle-class families, especially those earning more than four times the federal poverty level ($129,000/year for a family of four), will completely lose subsidies.
  • The Congressional Budget Office estimates 4 million Americans may become uninsured.
  • "About 4 million people will become uninsured after the expanded subsidies expire." (Nancy Marshall Genzer, [01:53])
• Why Premiums Rise Higher:
  • Healthy people are likely to drop insurance due to unaffordability, leaving only sicker people in the risk pool.
  • Insurers will face a smaller, less healthy customer base, raising premiums further.
  • Some insurers are pulling out of rural areas; with less competition, "the remaining carriers can charge more." (Nancy Marshall Genzer, [02:27])
• Exchange:
  • Nova Safo: “The cost of health insurance is expected to rise next year at the same time the subsidies are shrinking. Can you walk us through why that is?” ([02:17])
  • Nancy Marshall Genzer explains adverse selection and decreasing competition ([02:27]).

2. The End of MTV’s Music Era

Segment Starts: [03:01]

• Announcement: MTV’s parent, Paramount Skydance, is shutting down its remaining music-only channels as of the new year. The main MTV channel will continue as a reality/culture network.
• Cultural Note: Marks the final shift of MTV away from its original mission of 24/7 music programming.

3. Economic Trends of 2025: Artificial Intelligence

Segment Starts: [04:11]

• AI Boom and Volatility:
  • The year began strong for AI stocks, but turbulence arose with global competition.
  • Nvidia lost nearly $600 billion in value after a Chinese rival, Deep Seek, challenged U.S. market dominance ([04:28]).
  • Deep Seek’s presence was short as trust issues (tied to censorship and geopolitics) persisted.
• AI and Trust Issues:
  • Demonstrated with Deep Seek’s avoidance of answers around Tiananmen Square (“I’m sorry, I can’t answer that question.” [04:58])
  • Quote: "AI chatbots in general are amazing and it speaks, if that's the word, with complete confidence. But in some cases it's giving you..." – Ian Leslie, author ([05:18])
  • Nova Safo adds: “…completely mistaken information and presenting it as the truth.” ([05:18])
• AI and The Arts:
  • Tools like Sora 2 now create “eerily realistic videos” at the click of a button ([05:39]).
  • Major copyright concerns surface, with AI making it easier to produce so-called “AI slop.”
  • Quote: "It leaves us in a society that's going to have trust issues because I think people are going to learn that you can't really trust video anymore." – Dr. Gary Marcus, NYU ([06:05])
• Legal & Industry Response:
  • Record labels (e.g., Warner Bros.) initially sued AI music app Suno, but then pivoted to partnership.
  • The music industry’s reaction is split; some see AI tools as opportunities rather than threats.
  • Quote: “I enjoy using AI in the creative process…AI throws me back some different variations…” – Jamie Rodigan, Grammy-nominated producer ([07:14])
• Conclusion:
  • “So it’s polarizing, it’s problematic and it’s fraught with risks. But if 2025 proved anything, it’s that AI isn’t going away.” – Will Chalk ([07:32])

4. Global Markets: Mexico’s New Tariff Policy

Segment Starts: [07:42]

• New Policy: With the new year, Mexico aligns with U.S. trade barriers by imposing 35% tariffs on imports (mainly from Asia).
• Key Industries Affected: Steel, automobiles, auto parts.
• Purpose: To curb Chinese imports and align more closely with U.S. economic policy.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Premiums Doubling:

  • Nancy Marshall Genzer: "The average premium will go from $888 annually this year to around $1,900 in 2026." ([01:28])

• On Who Gets Hit Hardest:

  • Nancy Marshall Genzer: "About 4 million people will become uninsured after the expanded subsidies expire." ([01:53])

• On the Health Insurance Market’s Spiral:

  • "Some healthy people are expected to drop their insurance if it gets too expensive without the subsidies." – Nancy Marshall Genzer ([02:27])

• On AI Trust Crisis:

  • Ian Leslie: “AI chatbots in general are amazing … but in some cases it's giving you completely mistaken information and presenting it as the truth.” ([05:18])

• On Societal Disruption via AI Video:

  • Dr. Gary Marcus: "It leaves us in a society that's going to have trust issues because I think people are going to learn that you can't really trust video anymore." ([06:05])

• On AI in Music Creation:

  • Jamie Rodigan: "I enjoy using AI in the creative process … AI throws me back some different variations or examples of how the track could develop." ([07:14])

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Timestamps for Major Segments

• Health Insurance & ACA Subsidies: [00:59] – [02:59]
• MTV’s End of Music Programming: [03:01] – [03:39]
• AI in 2025 & Artistic Impact: [04:11] – [07:32]
• Mexico’s New Tariffs: [07:42] – [08:20]

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Tone & Style

The episode delivers information briskly, with a conversational yet urgent tone, reflective of the seriousness behind the health insurance and AI topics but sustaining a matter-of-fact marketplace cadence.

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Summary Takeaway

As 2026 approaches, millions of Americans face steep health insurance premium hikes as temporary ACA subsidies expire—especially affecting middle-class families. The year’s end also highlights a tech sector shaken by AI’s rapid ascent, volatility, and the looming question of societal trust in what’s real—be it information or creative works. On the global stage, Mexico’s tariff changes signal more shifts in the world trade environment. The episode gives valuable insight for listeners preparing for the economic realities of the new year.

Transcript

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[Nova Safo]

Visit t mobile.com the New Year brings skyrocketing health insurance premiums for millions of Americans. For Marketplace, I'm Nova Safo in for David Born Caccio. Enhanced subsidies for health insurance policies on the Affordable Care act exchanges are set to expire at the end of today. That means premiums are going up for many Obamacare enrollees. Marketplace's Nancy Marshall Genzer joins me now. Good morning, Nancy.

[Nancy Marshall Genzer]

Good morning.

[Nova Safo]

So how much will premiums rise after the subsidies expire?

[Nancy Marshall Genzer]

Well, they're expected to more than double. And that's according to KFF. That's a nonpartisan health research organization. KFF says the average premium will go from $888 annually this year to around $1,900 in 2026.

[Nova Safo]

And who is facing the steepest premium increase? I'm thinking the middle class likely will be most affected.

[Nancy Marshall Genzer]

Yeah, the subsidies were temporarily expanded during the pandemic to people making more than four times the poverty level. And Nova, that's $129,000 a year for a family of four. They will be completely losing their subsidies. And the Congressional Budget Office has estimated that about 4 million people will become uninsured after the expanded subsidies expire.

[Nova Safo]

And there's another hurdle here. Too right. Nancy, the cost of health insurance is expected to rise next year at the same time the subsidies are shrink. Can you walk us through why that is?

[Nancy Marshall Genzer]

Yeah. Well, some healthy people are expected to drop their insurance if it gets too expensive without the subsidies. And that leaves insurers with a smaller pool of sicker people who really can't go without insurance. Insurers are expected to charge them more because they won't have the healthier people in the insurance pool to balance them out. Also, some insurance companies are pulling out of rural areas and if there's no competition, the remaining carriers can charge more.

[Nova Safo]

Marketplace's Nancy Marshall Genzer thank you.

[Nancy Marshall Genzer]

You're welcome.

[Nova Safo]

It was the summer of 1981 when a new cable TV channel debuted dedicated to music videos. Now MTV's run as a purveyor of music is coming to an end with the new year. Parent company Paramount Skydance is shutting down MTV's remaining music only channels. The main channel, now home to reality and culture shows, will continue.

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[Nova Safo]

Economic trends of 2025 and today it's artificial intelligence. Stock prices of the companies powering AI saw double digit growth this year. The BBC's Will Chalk has more.

[Will Chalk]

2025 started with a bang for the AI industry.

[Nancy Marshall Genzer]

Has the AI bubble burst? The world's biggest listed company in video slumps nearly $600 billion with in January.

[Will Chalk]

The emergence of a cheaper Chinese rival to chat, Deep Seek caused chaos on the stock markets as U.S. companies realized they weren't the only players in the game. But Deep Seek's dominance was short lived, partly because of its ties to China and Censorsh. We asked it a couple of questions earlier on. One was what happened in Tiananmen Square?

[Nancy Marshall Genzer]

It gave us this answer.

[Will Chalk]

I'm sorry, I can't answer that question. Trust seemed to be the main concern. Here is Ian Leslie, an author on human behaviour, speaking to us at the time. AI chatbots in general are amazing and it speaks, if that's the word, with complete confidence. But in some cases it's giving you.

[Nova Safo]

Completely mistaken information and presenting it as the truth.

[Will Chalk]

Then there's the thorny issue of artificial intelligence and the arts, which has been in the spotlight more than ever, not least because of this.

[Jamie Rodigan]

It's the most powerful imagination engine ever built.

[Will Chalk]

Sora 2, which can create eerily realistic looking videos of pretty much anything you can imagine at the click of a button and put you and your friends in them too, was released in September. It made so called AI slop easier to make than ever. But there were big concerns about copyright. Dr. Gary Marcus from New York University writes on AI. He told me it marked a fundamental shift for society.

[Dr. Gary Marcus]

It leaves us in a society that's going to have trust issues because I think people are going to learn that you can't really trust video anymore. But we don't really have a replacement. We don't have a source of ground truth that people share and I think that's going to be disruptive for society.

[Will Chalk]

The big AI firms are still facing lawsuits from all around the world, largely from the people who own the copyright to the material their models are trained on. And it's playing out in a big way in the world of music. Because if you ask an AI generator to make you a song that sounds, say, like Ed Sheeran, some would argue that Ed Sheeran deserves some compensation. It's an issue that came to a head when big record labels including Warner Bros. Sued the AI music app Suno. That is until Warner Bros. Changed their mind and decided to work with them instead. Many in the music world were outraged. I've been searching for a remedy to rid this energy, but it's just part of the package. But some see it differently. Grammy nominated producer Jamie Rodigan told me there are others who see the app not as a threat, but as an opportunity.

[Jamie Rodigan]

I enjoy using AI in the creative process. If I start writing a piece of music and need an idea or maybe some harmonies, I may upload a track to AI and AI throws me back some different variations or different examples of how the track could develop.

[Will Chalk]

So it's polarizing, it's problematic and it's fraught with risks. But if 2025 proved anything, it's that AI isn't going away.

[Nova Safo]

That was Will Chalk with our newsroom partners at the BBC. Mexico's new tariff policy on imports for mostly Asian countries is set to take effect with the new year. Most of those tariffs be 35%. Aligning with the US the tariffs are likely to impact Chinese imports. In particular, Mexico is raising trade barriers for thousands of products including steel and automobiles and auto parts. Those are key Industries. I'm NovaSafo with the Marketplace Morning Report from APM American Public Media.

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