Marketplace Morning Report: Special Coverage – "Selling America"

Release Date: April 20, 2025

Introduction

In the special podcast episode titled "Selling America," hosted by Kai Rysdal of Marketplace, the focus centers on the seismic shifts in global trade dynamics initiated by President Trump's trade policies since April 2. The episode delves into the implications of new tariffs, their ripple effects across various sectors of the American economy, and the broader impact on the United States' standing in the global marketplace. Through expert analysis, firsthand business accounts, and economic insights, the episode paints a comprehensive picture of the challenges and uncertainties facing the U.S. economy.

1. The Genesis of "Selling America"

Kai Rysdal opens the discussion by highlighting the voluntary nature of the global economy, emphasizing how intertwined nations are through massive daily trade transactions. He asserts that President Trump's abrupt introduction of tariffs is disrupting this established system, leading to significant economic and geopolitical consequences.

• Notable Quote:

  "Selling America is what's happening. People are selling the dollar, they're selling their stocks in American companies...they're buying fewer American goods."
  — Kai Rysdal [00:01]

2. Expert Analysis: The Brookings Perspective

Wendy Edelberg, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, provides a nuanced analysis of the current trade environment. She distinguishes between two primary concerns:

• Uncertainty for Investors: Trump's unpredictable trade policies create an unstable environment, deterring investment.
• Destruction of Institutions: Tariffs are disrupting established economic institutions, potentially leading to higher short-term inflation and undermining the Federal Reserve's credibility.

Edelberg warns that weakened confidence in the Federal Reserve could lead to long-term economic repercussions, including altered mortgage rates and diminished economic stability.

• Notable Quote:

  "Trump's efforts are going to buy him higher interest rates, not lower."
  — Wendy Edelberg [05:01]

3. Business on the Front Lines: Small Businesses Under Strain

The episode features firsthand accounts from small business owners grappling with the immediate effects of tariffs:

• Wesley Rule (Knoxville Fine Violins): Experiences halted shipments from China, forcing decisions on inventory purchases amidst rising costs.

  "We're trying to decide whether... to purchase the inventory that's already here or hope that trade relations kind of even out."
  — Wesley Rule [12:16]

• Kalina Bruce (Noir Luxe Candle Bar, Seattle): Faces uncertainty in supply chains, with concerns about sustaining large orders due to fluctuating tariff implications.

  "There's so much uncertainty... we just really don't know what it's going to look like."
  — Kalina Bruce [36:52]

4. The Labor Market: Signs of Trouble Ahead

Katherine Ann Edwards, a labor economist, discusses the lagging indicators in the labor market that may signal an impending recession. She points to diminishing consumer sentiment and stalled hiring processes as red flags, suggesting that layoffs could follow if economic conditions worsen.

• Notable Quote:

  "Consumer sentiment has been dipping... many people are starting to hear from their employers that something bad is coming."
  — Katherine Ann Edwards [30:36]

5. Supply Chain Chaos: Navigating New Complexities

Gretchen Blough, customs brokerage manager at Logistics Plus in Erie, Pennsylvania, illustrates the real-time disruptions caused by sudden tariff implementations. She describes the challenges businesses face in categorizing goods, sourcing materials, and complying with new tariff rates, all amidst a landscape of uncertainty.

• Notable Quote:

  "There's so much uncertainty. No one's... knows how to plan."
  — Gretchen Blough [18:42]

6. Global Economic Realignments: Beyond the U.S.

The podcast explores how other nations are responding to America's trade isolation:

• Richard Weiner (Sidley Austin): Highlights the European Union's extensive free trade agreements and China's strategic trade partnerships, suggesting that the global economy continues to integrate without U.S. leadership.

  "Other countries are negotiating deals between each other while the US is making things more expensive for itself."
  — Richard Weiner [22:31]

• Emily Blanchard (Dartmouth's Tuck School of Business): Emphasizes the U.S.'s inward economic orientation as costly and counterproductive, undermining its competitive edge.

  "An economy insulated from global competition is an economy that starts to lose its edge."
  — Emily Blanchard [22:55]

7. The Repercussions for Manufacturing and Reshoring

Matt Notawodigdo, an economics professor at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business, assesses the efficacy of tariffs in bringing manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. He references historical precedents, noting minimal job retention despite significant tariff impositions, and warns of broader job losses across interconnected industries.

• Notable Quote:

  "Tariffs are only protecting jobs in specific industries, but causing cost increases elsewhere... you end up losing even more jobs than you save."
  — Matt Notawodigdo [44:06]

8. The Clothing Industry: A Case Study in Tariff Impact

The apparel sector serves as a microcosm of the tariff-induced upheaval:

• Andrew Chen (316 Menswear): Highlights the challenges of maintaining production costs amidst tariffs, leading to inevitable price hikes for consumers.

  "We wouldn't know where to begin or how to do it... we'll have to keep importing from Japan, and inevitably the price of our jeans will have to go up."
  — Andrew Chen [43:15]

• Phyllis Savachko (Stateless): Discusses the shift of apparel manufacturing from China to countries like Vietnam and India, increased costs, and the slow transition to domestic production due to high capital requirements and policy uncertainty.

  "Bringing production back to the U.S. would cost companies and consumers a lot more."
  — Phyllis Savachko [42:31]

9. Forecasting the Economic Future: Recession Risks

Economic forecasts tie together the themes of uncertainty and trade disruptions:

• Jay Bryson (Wells Fargo): Utilizes sophisticated models to predict a 55% chance of a recession within the year, factoring in unpredictable elements like interest rates and government spending.

  "We have a 55% chance of a recession."
  — Jay Bryson [34:37]

• David Kelly (JP Morgan Asset Management): Despite high recession probabilities, asserts that employment growth and business investment will likely slow down regardless of recession outcomes.

  "Employment growth, imports and exports, and business investment will slow down this year."
  — David Kelly [35:55]

10. The American Dollar: Shifting Reserve Status

The episode addresses concerns about the U.S. dollar's declining strength and its role as the world's reserve currency:

• Keith Merx (Norman, Oklahoma): Asked about the sustainability of the dollar's reserve status and its implications if diminished.

  "The selling America thing is real, and among the things that are being sold is the US Dollar, which means it's getting weaker."
  — Keith Merx [08:23]

• Kai Rysdal explains the complexities surrounding the dollar's reserve status, noting the entrenched global infrastructure favoring the dollar and the lack of viable alternatives despite its weakening value.

11. Consumer and Market Sentiment: The Psychological Toll

The interplay between consumer confidence and economic indicators is scrutinized:

• Katherine Ann Edwards emphasizes that declining consumer sentiment may precede tangible economic downturns, serving as an early warning sign of broader issues within the economy.

  "Consumer sentiment has been dipping... it's really worrying that many people are starting to hear from their employers that something bad is coming."
  — Katherine Ann Edwards [30:36]

12. The Long-Term Economic Trajectory: Adaptation and Resilience

Despite the immediate turmoil, experts discuss the potential for economic adaptation and recovery:

• Wendy Edelberg posits that while the U.S. has weathered numerous recessions, the current structural changes may lead to a prolonged period of adjustment, necessitating innovative policy and institutional reforms.

  "We do bounce back and grow. It is a gift to know that our economy will grow again."
  — Wendy Edelberg [31:49]

Conclusion

"Selling America" encapsulates a critical juncture in U.S. economic policy, highlighting the profound and multifaceted impacts of President Trump's tariffs on global trade relations, domestic businesses, labor markets, and the nation's economic standing. The episode underscores the pervasive uncertainty permeating various sectors, the strategic realignments of global trade partners, and the looming risks of recession. Experts collectively signal that while resilience and adaptability are inherent to the American economy, the current trajectory demands cautious navigation and thoughtful policy interventions to mitigate adverse outcomes and restore stability.

Notable Quotes Summary

1. Kai Rysdal [00:01]:
   "Selling America is what's happening. People are selling the dollar, they're selling their stocks in American companies...they're buying fewer American goods."

2. Wendy Edelberg [03:32]:
   "Trump's efforts are going to buy him higher interest rates, not lower."

3. Wesley Rule [12:16]:
   "We're trying to decide whether... to purchase the inventory that's already here or hope that trade relations kind of even out."

4. Wendy Edelberg [07:35]:
   "I want to say that the reason that I think we're in for a recession is because of uncertainty."

5. Gretchen Blough [17:10]:
   "There's so much uncertainty. No one's... knows how to plan."

6. Wendy Edelberg [22:31]:
   "Other countries are negotiating deals between each other while the US is making things more expensive for itself."

7. Matt Notawodigdo [44:06]:
   "Tariffs are only protecting jobs in specific industries, but causing cost increases elsewhere... you end up losing even more jobs than you save."

8. Andrew Chen [43:15]:
   "We wouldn't know where to begin or how to do it... we'll have to keep importing from Japan, and inevitably the price of our jeans will have to go up."

9. Jay Bryson [34:37]:
   "We have a 55% chance of a recession."

10. David Kelly [35:55]:
    "Employment growth, imports and exports, and business investment will slow down this year."

Key Takeaways

• Economic Uncertainty: Sudden tariff implementations have created a volatile environment, deterring investment and complicating business operations.

• Institutional Impact: Tariffs are undermining the credibility of economic institutions like the Federal Reserve, with potential long-term inflationary effects.

• Global Trade Realignment: Other nations are strengthening their own trade agreements, reducing reliance on the U.S. and diminishing its global economic influence.

• Business Struggles: Small and medium-sized enterprises are grappling with increased costs, disrupted supply chains, and strategic uncertainties.

• Labor Market Indicators: Declining consumer sentiment and stalled hiring processes may presage broader economic downturns.

• Reserve Currency Concerns: The weakening of the U.S. dollar raises questions about its future as the world's primary reserve currency.

• Recession Risks: Economists predict a heightened likelihood of recession, fueled by trade policies and economic uncertainties.

• Long-Term Resilience: While the U.S. economy has historically rebounded from recessions, the current structural changes present unique challenges that require innovative policy responses.

This comprehensive summary encapsulates the critical discussions from the "Selling America" episode, providing listeners with a clear understanding of the complex interplay between trade policies, economic indicators, and their multifaceted impacts on the American economy.