Spring's a big time for buying and selling homes ... normally

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report: "Spring's a Big Time for Buying and Selling Homes ... Normally"

Release Date: May 1, 2025
Host: David Brancaccio
Duration: Approximately 9 minutes

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1. Navigating the Confusing Housing Market

Timestamp: [00:57]

David Brancaccio opens the episode addressing the current complexities in the housing market. He acknowledges the challenges buyers and sellers face during this spring season, setting the stage for a deeper dive into market dynamics.

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2. Technology Sector Earnings Surge

Timestamp: [01:13]

Nancy Marshall Genzer, Marketplace reporter, provides an update on the robust performance of major technology companies:

• Meta Platforms Inc. reported a 16% year-over-year increase in revenue. Additionally, the average price per advertisement rose, signaling strong advertiser demand. CEO Mark Zuckerberg highlighted advancements in AI technology, mentioning progress on AI glasses and Meta AI.

• Microsoft announced a quarterly net income exceeding $25 billion, marking an $8 billion increase from the previous quarter. This impressive performance has positively influenced investor sentiment.

Genzer also notes that Chinese state media reported U.S. attempts to initiate dialogue with Beijing regarding tariffs, suggesting minimal immediate drawbacks to such negotiations.

Notable Quote:
"Meta is making good progress on AI glasses and Meta AI." — Mark Zuckerberg [01:30]

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3. Stock Market Updates

Timestamp: [01:54]

Brancaccio provides a snapshot of the stock market's current state:

• NASDAQ Futures: Up 1.7%
• S&P Futures: Up 1.2%
• The positive movement is attributed to the strong earnings reports from tech giants like Meta and Microsoft.

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4. Tariff Policies and Geopolitical Implications

Timestamp: [02:21] – [04:53]

In a pivotal segment, Brancaccio interviews Ian Bremmer, founder and president of the political risk consultancy, the Eurasia Group. The discussion centers on President Trump's tariff policies and their broader geopolitical impacts.

Key Points Discussed:

• Self-Harm of Tariff Policies: Bremmer criticizes the administration's tariff strategy as the "greatest act of geopolitical self-harm" he has witnessed, indicating severe negative repercussions for the U.S. economy and its global standing.

  “It's the greatest act of geopolitical self harm I've seen in my career as a political scientist.” — Ian Bremmer [02:29]

• Effectiveness as a Bargaining Tool: While tariffs are intended to pressure other nations into favorable trade agreements, Bremmer argues they are counterproductive, especially when targeting allied nations. He emphasizes that singling out key partners damages the U.S.'s ability to lead and collaborate on critical issues like national security.

  “The worst way to go about that is to pick on your friends at the same time.” — Ian Bremmer [03:17]

• Impact on Weaker Economies: Bremmer explains that while smaller economies might feel the immediate impact (~2% of GDP), they remain resilient and may ultimately benefit as global dynamics shift away from U.S. leadership towards China.

  “They are convinced that they can outlast the Americans politically in terms of pain they take.” — Ian Bremmer [03:25]

• Long-Term Structural Changes: The administration's tough stance on China is expected to advantage countries like India and Vietnam, as global supply chains realign and seek diversification away from China.

  “China has an economy that has not been performing very well... this is going to be a long term structural move.” — Ian Bremmer [04:29]

Conclusion: Bremmer underscores the long-term unintended consequences of the tariff policies, highlighting a shift in global economic alliances and the erosion of U.S. influence.

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5. President Trump's Stance on Tariffs

Timestamp: [05:10]

A clip of President Donald Trump addresses the impact of tariffs, critiquing the administration's economic policies:

"They made a trillion dollars with Biden. A trillion dollars. Even a trillion one with Biden selling us stuff... some might cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally." — Donald Trump [05:10]

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6. April Stock Market Performance Recap

Timestamp: [05:31]

Brancaccio reviews the stock market's tumultuous performance in April, marked by significant volatility due to tariff uncertainties. Despite the swings, major indices showed minor declines:

• S&P 500: Down 0.7%
• NASDAQ: Down 0.8%

These marginal losses reflect resilience amid economic and geopolitical turbulence.

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7. Current Housing Market Analysis

Timestamp: [07:37]

Transitioning back to the housing sector, Brancaccio highlights contrasting trends across different U.S. regions based on National Association of Realtors data:

• March Housing Contracts: Surge in new purchases
• Year-over-Year Sales Comparison:
  • Midwest, South, West: Sales down
  • Northeast: Sales steady
• Regional Variations: Indicate uneven recovery and persistent challenges in affordability.

Samantha Fields, Marketplace’s housing economist, elaborates:

• Affordability Crisis: Persistent high prices and mortgage payments continue to hinder market activity.

  “We're really not through the crazy price increases that we saw a few years ago...” — Chris Salviati [08:07]

• Economic Uncertainty: Ali Wolf, chief economist at Zonda, emphasizes that economic instability deters potential homebuyers from making significant investments.

  “If you're trying to make the biggest purchase of your life, do you really want to do it?” — Ali Wolf [08:38]

Fields summarizes that while mortgage rates have slightly decreased, the overarching economic uncertainty remains a significant barrier for homebuyers.

Notable Quote:
"A lot of people, she says, the answer right now is no." — Ali Wolf [09:09]

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8. Conclusion

Timestamp: [09:15]

Brancaccio wraps up the episode, reiterating the intertwined nature of economic policies, market performance, and the housing sector's current state. He underscores the importance of staying informed amid ongoing uncertainties.

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Final Note: This episode of Marketplace Morning Report provides a comprehensive overview of the intersecting factors influencing today's economic landscape, from tech earnings and stock market fluctuations to geopolitical tensions and housing market challenges. Notable insights from experts like Ian Bremmer and economists Chris Salviati and Ali Wolf offer listeners a nuanced understanding of the complexities at play.

Transcript

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[David Brancaccio]

It is a confusing time to be shopping for a house. I'm David Brancaccio in Los Angeles. Stock futures are pointing up this morning after some better than expected results from technology companies. Marketplace's Nancy Marshall Genzer reports tech futures.

[Nancy Marshall Genzer]

Rose after the latest earnings reports from Meta and Microsoft. Meta revenue was up 16% year over year. The average price per ad was Also up and CEO Mark Zuckerberg says Meta is making good progress on AI glasses and Meta AI. Microsoft reported quarterly net income of more than $25 billion, an increase of 8 billion DOL for the quarter. Investors were also buoyed by reports from Chinese state media that the U.S. had reached out to Beijing to set up talks over tariffs. A social media account affiliated with State Media said there's little downside in exploring that. I'm Nancy Marshall Genser for Marketplace.

[David Brancaccio]

Indeed index futures are up with the NASDAQ up 1.7% at the moment, S&P futures up 1.2%. As we use President Trump's 100 days as an invitation to review the overhaul so far, what does a political scientist think who whispers in the ear of corporations trying to navigate these uncertain times? We're joined now by Ian Bremmer, founder and president of the political risk consultancy the Eurasia Group. Ian, great to have you back.

[Ian Bremmer]

David, always good to talk to you.

[David Brancaccio]

You've written this, but say it aloud. For us. The tariff policy is the most what?

[Ian Bremmer]

It's the greatest act of geopolitical self harm I've seen in my career as a political scientist.

[David Brancaccio]

All right, but what about as a bargaining tool for the Trump administration to get some countries talking about their trade policies and other arrangements? It works that way to some extent.

[Ian Bremmer]

It should work that way. And the US is of course, the strongest economy. It's the most powerful country in the world. But for example, if the United States is trying to get a whole bunch of countries that are aligned to work with the Americans to push the Chinese hard to further de risk, to decouple specifically in areas that are important for national security, the worst way to go about that is to pick on your friends at the same time.

[David Brancaccio]

And on the subject of prompting or forcing negotiations by jacking up tariffs, does that work with China? Actually, in practice?

[Ian Bremmer]

No. No, it's going to work with a bunch of weaker countries, smaller countries, countries that desperately need a deal with the US with the Chinese. They aren't even talking to the United States about trade. And the fact is that they can take a significant hit. This is going to be about 2% of their GDP. But they are convinced that they can outlast the Americans politically in terms of pain they take. And they also see themselves as major long term beneficiaries. As other countries around the world hedge more towards China and as the Americans refuse leadership in multilateral institutions, with the Global south and lots of other areas where the Chinese are the number two player, they'll become more dominant.

[David Brancaccio]

One last question here. I guess it gets at the new world of trade and new alignments that emerge. Does it matter outside of India, when you see that workers in India will put together the iPhones that Chinese people have been assembling and then Americans have been buying?

[Ian Bremmer]

Yes. China has an economy that has not been performing very well. So the fact that the United States and other countries have been trying to de risk and now Trump is leaning into a very tough, basically a trade embargo position on the Chinese that's gonna be a benefit to India first and foremost, but also Vietnam and countries across Southeast Asia. That I think is going to be a long term structural move.

[David Brancaccio]

Ian Bremmer, founder and president of the Eurasia Group, the political risk consultancy. Always good to catch up.

[Ian Bremmer]

David, a pleasure.

[David Brancaccio]

And here's President Trump yesterday on his tariffs. China profiting from the things Americans buy and the possibility of hardship. At the toy store ahead of Christmas and Hanukkah.

[Donald Trump]

They made a trillion dollars with Biden. A trillion dollars. Even a trillion one with Biden selling us stuff. Much of it we don't need. You know, somebody said, oh, the shelves are going to be open. Well, maybe the children will have two dolls instead of $30, you know, and maybe the $2 will cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally.

[David Brancaccio]

It is now the month of May, and we can now look back at the stock market's performance for this turbulent April. Enormous swings with tariff turnarounds. But in the end, the S and P for the month of April lost only 7/10 of 1%. The NASDAQ lost 8/10 of a percent for the month.

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[David Brancaccio]

So the stock market's been volatile. So is the housing market these days, while a surge of people entered into contracts to buy new places to live in the month of March. If you compare existing home sales in March to a year earlier, sales were down in many regions, including the Midwest and the south and the west they were up. And the Northeast was holding steady year over year. Using data from the national association of Realtors, Marketplace's Samantha Fields has more.

[Samantha Fields]

In some ways, this spring's housing market is deja vu all over again.

[Chris Salviati]

We're still in this stalemate phase that we've been in for a long time.

[Samantha Fields]

Chris Salviati, senior housing economist at Apartment List, says affordability, or the lack thereof, is still the main issue.

[Chris Salviati]

We're really not through the crazy price increases that we saw a few years ago, right where we saw the median monthly mortgage payment double in the course of a few years.

[Samantha Fields]

Today, home prices are still growing, though much more slowly, and mortgage rates have come down a little.

[Ali Wolf]

The challenge is, of course, that housing conditions are easier to navigate, but economic ones aren't.

[Samantha Fields]

Ali Wolf, chief economist at Zonda, says uncertainty in the economy is a huge factor in the current housing market. People are wondering, is my job safe?

[Ali Wolf]

Will the economy go into a recession? What do these tariffs mean for me? If you're trying to make the biggest purchase of your life, do you really want to do it? If you have no sense of what the next six months look like for.

[Samantha Fields]

A lot of people, she says, the answer right now is no. I'm Samantha Fields for Marketplace, and in.

[David Brancaccio]

Los Angeles, I'm David Brancaccio. You're listening to the Marketplace Morning Report from apm American Public Media.

[Janeli Espinal]

If there's one thing we know about social media, it's that misinformation is everywhere, especially when it comes to personal finance. Financially Inclined from Marketplace is a podcast you can trust to help you get serious about your money so you can build a life you've always dreamed of. I'm the host, Janeli Espinal, and each week I ask experts important money questions, like how to negotiate job offers, how to choose a college that you can afford, and how to talk about money with friends and family. Listen to Financially Inclined wherever you get your podcasts.