Talkin' turkey (inflation)

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report: "Talkin' Turkey (Inflation)" – November 25, 2025

Brief Overview

This brisk episode of the Marketplace Morning Report delves into two pressing consumer and economic issues facing Americans as Thanksgiving approaches: the true cost and inflationary pressures on holiday meals, and the sharp rise in health insurance premiums as government subsidies may expire. Hosted by David Brancaccio from Los Angeles, the show relies on reporting from Marketplace journalists, expert interviews, and direct stories from affected families.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Thanksgiving Dinner and Food Inflation

• Conflicting Narratives on Prices
  • Experts and studies disagree on whether the cost of Thanksgiving is up, down, or flat. Some sources cite decreases, while others point to notable increases.
  • Quotes:
    • "So this year we see that Thanksgiving dinner is going to be less expensive." (Reporter, 01:26)
    • "Our numbers show that it's going to be pretty close to the same or a little bit up." (Marketplace Announcer, 01:30)
    • "We find that the typical Thanksgiving meal will run people about 10% more this year." (Reporter, 01:35)
• Itemized Increases
  • Certain staples are rising steeply:
    • "For vegetables specifically, our veggie tray was up more than 61% and sweet potatoes were up 37%." (Reporter, 01:56)
• Coping Strategies
  • Shoppers are adapting: using frozen instead of fresh vegetables, skipping desserts, opting for generics.
  • Supermarkets may sell turkey at a loss ("loss leaders") to attract customers, recouping profit on other items.
    • "They can put those prices in the paper or in online advertisements to get you in the door, and then they know that you will buy the pumpkin pie filling and the green beans and the stuffing." (Elizabeth Pancotti, 02:14)
• Budget Constraints and Social Adjustments
  • Households are "eating less fancy" or inviting fewer people to contain costs.
    • "Some families are actually going to invite fewer guests, kind of downsizing the meal itself as a way to save money." (Justin Cook, 02:30)
  • Average Thanksgiving guest expected to pitch in about $47 this year.
• Overall Tone
  • Empathic, focusing on the squeeze many families feel without talking down to listeners. Brancaccio opens, "No one needs to tell you if your grocery bill is getting higher or lower. We're all there at the supermarket scanner. We know what we’re buying and if it’s up or down." (00:55)

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2. Health Insurance Premiums: Looming Subsidy Expiration

• Imminent Policy Shifts
  • White House may soon announce new methods to address health insurance inflation and expiring ACA subsidies.
  • Without action, premiums for ACA plans could "double, triple, quadruple." (David Brancaccio, 04:39)
• Impact Stories
  • A family’s premium jumps from $2,000/month this year to $3,300/month next year for a bronze plan for a family of four—a whopping $40,000 annually.
    • "I really don't want to spend $40,000 on health insurance. But I also don't want to choose a bad plan or choose the wrong plan." (Kelly Williams, 05:30)
  • Going uninsured feels impossible: "With kids you worry most about accidents and you're like, what if somebody's in a horrible car wreck and you have just a half million dollar hospital bill or something." (Kelly Williams, 05:56)
• Market Dynamics
  • Folding enhanced subsidies means healthier, younger people may drop out due to unaffordable costs, making the insurance pool older and sicker; this drives up premiums further.
    • "If the enhanced subsidies do expire, lots of young, healthy people are likely to drop coverage because it's too expensive. And when insurance companies anticipate a smaller, sicker pool of people... they will increase their premiums." (Sabrina Corlette, 06:26)
  • Average premium increases projected at 26% nationwide.
• Underlying Causes
  • Stagnant or falling premiums over the past years thanks to enhanced subsidies and healthier cohorts.
  • Delay in medical inflation due to the pandemic: people put off care, now returning for postponed procedures and prescriptions, raising insurer costs.
    • "During the height of the pandemic, fewer people were going to doctors too, delaying non urgent care with which kept costs down for insurance companies... these days we've seen insurers talking about people using more hospital care, people going to the doctor, more people filling more prescriptions, which increases insurers costs and pushes up premiums." (Reporter & Marketplace Announcer, 07:15–07:31)
• Personal Financial Impact
  • Even with a cheaper, higher deductible plan, the family’s premium will still be $3,000/month—more than double their $1,200 mortgage.
    • "It absolutely dwarfs our mortgage, which is $1,200 all in." (Kelly Williams, 08:05)
    • "It's crushing, Williams says, but she knows her family's lucky they can make it work." (Reporter, 08:11)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

• "No one needs to tell you if your grocery bill is getting higher or lower. We're all there at the supermarket scanner."
  — David Brancaccio, 00:55
• "We find that the typical Thanksgiving meal will run people about 10% more this year."
  — Marketplace Reporter, 01:35
• "Our veggie tray was up more than 61% and sweet potatoes were up 37%."
  — Faith Parham via Reporter, 01:56
• "Some families are actually going to invite fewer guests, kind of downsizing the meal itself as a way to save money."
  — Justin Cook, 02:30
• "I really don't want to spend $40,000 on health insurance. But I also don't want to choose a bad plan or choose the wrong plan."
  — Kelly Williams, 05:30
• "It absolutely dwarfs our mortgage, which is $1,200 all in."
  — Kelly Williams, 08:05

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:55 – 03:10: Thanksgiving inflation segment (price comparisons, coping strategies, budget stories)
• 04:39 – 08:18: Health insurance premiums and policy segment (subsidies, personal impacts, expert analysis)

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Summary & Takeaways

Marketplace Morning Report succinctly illustrates the heightened financial anxieties facing Americans as 2025 draws to a close. Inflation remains a reality at the holiday dinner table, despite mixed statistical narratives. Meanwhile, families brace for health insurance "sticker shock" as pandemic-era subsidies are due to sunset, risking profound hardship even among financially stable households.

The tone is matter-of-fact, empathetic, and information-rich, arming listeners with both the "big picture" and individual experiences behind these economic challenges.

Transcript

[David Brancaccio]

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[Marketplace Announcer]

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[David Brancaccio]

Talking turkey on Thanksgiving Inflation I'm David Brancaccio in Los Angeles. Good morning. We are leading with the politics. What we have to pay for the Thanksgiving meal Before we go any further, let's be clear. No one needs to tell you if your grocery bill is getting higher or lower. We're all there at the supermarket scanner. We know what we're buying and if it's up or down. That said, my colleague Kimberly Adams reports now on the dueling statistics and narratives.

[Kimberly Adams]

On this when it comes to the cost of Thanksgiving.

[Reporter (possibly Samantha Fields or another Marketplace reporter)]

So this year we see that Thanksgiving dinner is going to be less expensive.

[Marketplace Announcer]

Our numbers show that it's going to be pretty close to the same or a little bit up.

[Reporter (possibly Samantha Fields or another Marketplace reporter)]

We find that the typical Thanksgiving meal will run people about 10% more this year.

[Kimberly Adams]

That's Faith Parham at the American Farm Bureau, Justin Cook at Deloitte, and Elizabeth Pancati at the economic think tank Groundwork Collaborative. Here's the thing. Food prices overall are up. Here's the Farm Bureau's Faith Parham again.

[Interviewee / Ad Voice]

For vegetables specifically, our veggie tray was.

[Reporter (possibly Samantha Fields or another Marketplace reporter)]

Up more than 61% and sweet potatoes were up 37%.

[Kimberly Adams]

So some Thanksgiving baskets replace fresh vegetables with frozen, drop the dessert, use more generic brands, and some stores are willing to take a hit on the turkey, says Elizabeth Pancotti at Groundwork Collaborative.

[Reporter (possibly Samantha Fields or another Marketplace reporter)]

They can put those prices in the paper or in online advertisements to get you in the door, and then they know that you will buy the pumpkin pie filling and the green beans and the stuffing.

[Kimberly Adams]

Regardless, family budgets are tight this holiday season, so says Justin Cook at Deloitte.

[Marketplace Announcer]

They may eat a less fancy meal or some families are actually going to invite fewer guests, kind of downsizing the meal itself as a way to save money.

[Kimberly Adams]

And, says Cook, if you're going to be a guest, it's more important than ever to contribute to the cause. Cook says the average guest will spend about $47 to add to the spread. In Washington, I'm Kimberly Adams for Marketplace.

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[David Brancaccio]

That we could get an announcement from the White House someday soon revealing how the administration plans to deal with high medical costs and expiring government subsidies for health insurance. Now, without those subsidies, which are set to expire at the end of this year in just over five weeks, many who buy Affordable Care act medical plans would see their premiums double, triple, quadruple. But even people who haven't relied on tax credits for health insurance are seeing their premiums for ACA coverage go up next year, about 26% on average. Marketplace's Samantha Fields looked into why that's happening.

[Reporter (possibly Samantha Fields or another Marketplace reporter)]

This year. Kelly Williams and her husband have been paying about $2,000 a month without subsidies for health insurance through the Marketplace for them and their two kids next year, that same bronze plan will cost them about $3,300 a month, $40,000 for the year.

[Interviewee / Ad Voice]

So I'm a little bit paralyzed because obviously I really don't want to spend 40,000 on health insurance. But I also don't want to choose a bad plan or choose the wrong plan.

[Reporter (possibly Samantha Fields or another Marketplace reporter)]

Williams and her husband own a commercial printing business in rural Oklahoma, and their kids are in college. They don't go to the doctor much or take many prescriptions. But she says going without insurance doesn't feel like an option.

[Interviewee / Ad Voice]

With kids you worry most about accidents and you're like, what if somebody's in a horrible car wreck and you have just a half million dollar hospital bill or something.

[Reporter (possibly Samantha Fields or another Marketplace reporter)]

She knew going into open enrollment this year that her family's premium would probably be going up.

[Interviewee / Ad Voice]

Once the news came that there were going to be the cuts to Medicaid and the cuts to the subsidies, I knew that you could not take that much out of the health care market and not have it affect everybody.

[Reporter (possibly Samantha Fields or another Marketplace reporter)]

She's right. Sabrina Corlette at Georgetown center on Health Insurance Reforms says that's one of the main reasons premiums are going up, because if the enhanced subsidies do expire, lots of young, healthy people are likely to drop coverage because it's too expensive.

[Marketplace Announcer]

And when insurance companies anticipate a smaller, sicker pool of people that they're going.

[Reporter (possibly Samantha Fields or another Marketplace reporter)]

To have to cover, they will increase their premiums. The average increase for marketplace plans for next year is about 26%. Matthew Fiedler @ the Brookings Institution says that's big, especially after several years of premiums being relatively stable.

[Marketplace Announcer]

Enhanced subsidies took effect in 2021. The market's grown a lot and a lot of the people came into the market were pretty healthy. So that provided a source of downward pressure on premium growth. Now we're seeing that process go into reverse.

[Reporter (possibly Samantha Fields or another Marketplace reporter)]

During the height of the pandemic, fewer people were going to doctors too, delaying non urgent care with which kept costs down for insurance companies.

[Marketplace Announcer]

But these days we've seen insurers talking about people using more hospital care, people going to the doctor, more people filling.

[Reporter (possibly Samantha Fields or another Marketplace reporter)]

More prescriptions, which increases insurers costs and pushes up premiums. There's also inflation, which Fiedler says took longer to hit healthcare than other parts of the economy. It's an expensive combination. Kelly Williams is still trying to figure out what to do for her family in rural Oklahoma. Right now they have a bronze plan with a low deductible.

[Interviewee / Ad Voice]

I think we're probably going to have to go with a higher deductible plan to ease the financial burden of it.

[Reporter (possibly Samantha Fields or another Marketplace reporter)]

Even with a higher deductible, insurance for the four of them will cost about $3,000 a month.

[Interviewee / Ad Voice]

It absolutely dwarfs our mortgage, which is $1,200 all in.

[Reporter (possibly Samantha Fields or another Marketplace reporter)]

It's crushing, Williams says, but she knows her family's lucky they can make it work. I'm Samantha Fields for Marketplace.

[David Brancaccio]

It Takes a Village. Our producers are Tamar Fagan, Ashley Rodriguez, Ariana Rosas, and Erica Soderstrom. Our senior producer is Alex Schroeder. Our supervising senior producer is Meredith Garretson. Morby In Los Angeles, I'm David Brancaccio. It's the Marketplace Morning Report. From apm, American Public Media.

[Marketplace Announcer]

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