The economic reverberations of war

Summary

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Marketplace Morning Report: "The Economic Reverberations of War"

Date: March 3, 2026
Host: Sabri Ben-Ashour (for David Brancaccio)
Episode Length: ~8 minutes

Overview

This Marketplace Morning Report episode focuses on how ongoing war with Iran is sending ripples across the global economy, particularly in energy markets, shipping, and consumer prices. The show also delves into the aftermath of the U.S. Supreme Court’s recent decision to strike down some of former President Trump’s tariffs, examining how businesses and consumers are navigating the resulting complex tariff landscape. Listener perspectives and legal expert insights further flesh out the story.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Economic Disruption from War in Iran

[00:31-02:01]

• Oil Production & Shipping Impacted:
  • The war has caused significant turmoil in the Middle East, disrupting oil production and shipping lanes, notably around the Strait of Hormuz.
• Rising Oil Prices:
  • "International Standard Brent crude is up 6% this morning to more than $82 a barrel. A week ago it was around $70." — Sabri Ben-Ashour [00:48]
• Logistical Chaos:
  • Airlines are grappling with over 11,000 canceled flights, affecting 1.5 million passengers.
  • Container ships and tankers are stuck, with about 150 ships stranded; shipping rates are climbing.
• Consumer Impact:
  • U.S. average gas prices up 10 cents in a day (AAA).
  • "Rising energy prices could hurt airlines too, which are already struggling..." — Nova Safo [01:41]
• Potential for Rapid Changes:
  • Analysts note inflationary effects could be short-lived if the conflict ends soon; a protracted war could lead to “energy prices skyrocket.”

2. Businesses Navigating Post-Tariff Uncertainty

[02:01-05:12]

• Tariff Refunds & Legal Limbo:
  • After the Supreme Court struck down many Trump-era tariffs, businesses await clarity on refunds.
  • A federal court blocked attempts to slow refunds, but the process is convoluted.
• Small Business Owner Perspective:
  • Rachel Rosner, owner of Elden Street Tea Shop, describes the complexity of tracking which tariffs are rescinded and which remain.
  • "We try to keep up with the percentage. ... [Vendors] are kind of using it as an advantage ... saying, oh, you better get your prices locked in before it changes.” — Rachel Rosner [02:43]
  • Vendors instill urgency/caution due to changing tariff rates.
  • Suing for refunds is fraught for small businesses due to legal costs and delays:
    • “We have to weigh out those pros and cons and we are still considering whether that’s an option for us or not.” — Rachel Rosner [03:19]
  • She doubts prices can drop soon:
    • “Until we recoup the cost of what we paid with the tariffs ... we can't bring down our prices. And ... just the general price of everything has gone up.” — Rachel Rosner [04:24]
  • There’s a trickle-down effect; higher costs challenge small businesses’ survival and consumers’ budgets.

3. Changing Rules for “De Minimis” Tariff Exemptions

[06:16-07:44]

• Policy Background:
  • The Supreme Court’s decision didn’t address “de minimis” — the exemption for imports under $800.
  • Trump suspended this rule in 2025, triggering new taxes on a huge volume of imports.
• Current Status:
  • Not much has changed.
    • “As of today, consumers, importers, everyone still has to pay full tariffs on items that are imported that are worth under $800.” — Michelle Schultz (trade lawyer) [06:44]
  • Some tariffs gone, but many remain, especially for small-value packages.
• Consumer Impact:
  • Whether tariffs are higher or lower depends on country of origin.
    • “If you buy something from China now on paper the tariff is actually lower than before. But if you buy something from Europe, it's actually more expensive.” — Prof. Christopher Tang [07:19]
  • Fast-fashion sites like Shein and Temu still draw U.S. shoppers because prices, even with tariffs, remain competitive.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "About 150 ships are stranded. Insurers have canceled war risk coverage for tankers.” — Nova Safo [01:15]
• “It's just kind of more of the same stress, more of the same fear and more of the same problem.” — Rachel Rosner [02:49]
• “As a small business owner having to pay for these tariffs up front with money that we don't necessarily have and have had to take loans out for ... it really constrains the ability to move forward." — Rachel Rosner [03:47]
• “Even with tariffs, it's often cheaper than shopping here.” — Samantha Fields [07:38]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [00:31] — War with Iran and its impact on oil, shipping, and inflation
• [01:08] — Nova Safo’s report: specifics on shipping, oil, insurance, and consumer gas prices
• [02:01] — Updates on Trump tariffs, business refunds, and small business challenges
• [02:30-05:12] — Deep dive with Rachel Rosner on managing tariffs, recouping costs, and survival challenges for small shops
• [06:16] — “De minimis” tariff exception explained and its ongoing effects
• [06:39-07:44] — Legal and market analysis from Michelle Schultz and Prof. Christopher Tang; consumer behavior amid shifting tariffs

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Tone & Final Thoughts

The episode maintains Marketplace’s signature calm, informative, and lightly conversational tone, balancing headline-level urgency with clear explanations. Guest business owner Rachel Rosner brings a relatable, candid voice, expressing the “more of the same stress” felt by many small entrepreneurs.

This episode is an insightful snapshot of how macro events—war, Supreme Court rulings, tariff battles—play out in the lives of businesses, consumers, and the global marketplace.

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Transcript

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[B]

The economic reverberations of war From Marketplace, I'm Sabri Ben, ashore in for David Brancotio. The war with Iran continues to disrupt oil production and shipping channels in the Middle East. It's also raising concerns about global inflation. International Standard Brent crude is up 6% this morning to more than $82 a barrel. A week ago it was around $70. Airlines and travelers are still struggling with closed air routes and Air 11,000 flights have been canceled, affecting one and a half million passengers. Marketplace's Nova Sappho has the latest Crude

[C]

oil prices are rising over concerns that a key waterway for tankers, the Strait of Hormuz, located along Iran's south, will remain effectively off limits. About 150 ships are stranded. Insurers have canceled war risk coverage for tankers. Shipping rates are up and and container ships, not just tankers, are caught in the backup. Consumers may already be feeling the effects. Average gas prices in the US have risen 10 cents in a day, according to AAA. Rising energy prices could hurt airlines, too, which are already struggling with disruptions along Mideast routes. Overall, analysts say the inflationary impact from the military conflict may be temporary and minimal if it is over quickly. But a prolonged war a month or longer could cause energy prices to skyrocket. I'm novasafo for Marketplace.

[B]

A week and a half after the Supreme Court struck down many of President Trump's tariffs, the question of refunds for all the businesses that paid them is still hanging in the air. The Trump administration wanted to slow down the refund process. A federal court yesterday said no. On top of that, businesses are facing a whole new round of tariffs to disentangle. So we reconnected with Rachel Rosner to see how her business is doing. She's owner and founder of Eldon Street Tea Shop in Reston, Virginia. Rachel, welcome back.

[D]

Hi. Thanks for having me back.

[B]

Is it not kind of a math problem trying to navigate like which tariffs went away and then are replaced by which other tariffs? At this point so far, we try

[D]

to keep up with the percentage. We do have a couple of industry Wholesale companies and vendors that are closely watching every time these tariffs change, which is helpful, but also they are kind of using it as an advantage as well, saying, oh, you better get your prices locked in before it changes. And that's not really great either. It creates a scarcity. So it's just kind of more of the same stress, more of the same fear and more of the same problem.

[B]

A lot of companies are suing to get refunds. Are you?

[D]

With legal fees and the time and the commitment to it, we have to weigh out those pros and cons and we are still considering whether that's an option for us or not.

[B]

I assume the government's not going to just automatically refund you without you having to work for it.

[D]

No, we're definitely going to have to fight for it if we do. And as the president said, it could take, you know, several months to years to get that money back. And I think a lot of consumers also believe that they have rights to that money. But as a small business owner having to pay for these tariffs up front with money that we don't necessarily have and have had to take loans out for so that consumers can continue to purchase those products, it really constrains the ability to move forward for small businesses to get that money that they need.

[B]

Do you think that prices would come down now or in the future or are things too kind of crazy to know?

[D]

I don't think that prices are going to come down anytime soon because until we recoup the cost of what we paid with the tariffs on the products that we purchased or didn't purchase, some businesses had to leave their stock at the port. Until we recoup those costs, then we can't bring down our prices. And not only that, just the general price of everything has gone up. And unfortunately this has a trickle down effect to my business. And I do think that if we push harder that we would definitely lose customers if we go any higher.

[B]

Rachel Rosner, owner and founder of Eldon Street Tea Shop in Reston, Virginia. Thank you as always. Good to talk to you again.

[D]

Good to talk to you, Sue.

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[B]

When the Supreme Court struck down those tariffs last month, it was silent on what's known as the de minimis exception. That's the rule where if your package is worth less than $800, no tariffs. Trump suspended that exemption last summer, which meant steep taxes for the first time in decades on a lot of packages. There were 1.4 billion of them in 20. Marketplace's Sam Fields has more on where things stand now.

[F]

Short answer not much has changed since the Supreme Court ruling if you're ordering cheap stuff from abroad.

[D]

As of today, consumers, importers, everyone still has to pay full tariffs on items that are imported that are worth under $800.

[F]

Michelle Schultz at Schultz Trade Law in Dallas says the sweeping tariffs the president imposed on countries last spring may be gone.

[D]

But there are many tariffs still in

[F]

place and they still apply to small packages, at least for now. Christopher Tang at UCLA's Anderson School of Management says whether this current tariff landscape is better or worse for you as a consumer depends where you're buying from.

[D]

If you buy something from China now on paper the tariff is actually lower than before. But if you buy something from Europe and now it's actually more expensive.

[F]

Lots of consumers are still ordering clothes and other things from abroad on sites like Shein and Temu, he says, because even with tariffs, it's often cheaper than shopping. Here. I'm Samantha Fields for Marketplace, and in

[B]

New York, I'm Sabri Benishore with the Marketplace Morning Report. From APM American Public Media.

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