Marketplace Morning Report: The Fed’s Next Moves Could Be a Tightrope Walk Release Date: March 28, 2025

In this episode of Marketplace Morning Report, host David Brancaccio delves into pressing economic and business issues shaping the current landscape. The episode covers three main stories: the Trump administration's executive order on federal unions, Florida's controversial bill on child labor laws, and the complexities surrounding inflation and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Additionally, the report examines the escalating trade tensions between the United States and Canada and their implications for businesses on both sides of the border. Below is a detailed summary of each segment, enriched with notable quotes and insights from expert guests.

1. Trump Administration’s Executive Order on Federal Unions

Timestamp: 00:47 - 01:37

David Brancaccio opens the report by addressing President Trump's recent executive order aimed at limiting the influence of labor unions within federal agencies. The order targets several key departments, including Defense, Veterans Affairs, State, Justice, Treasury, Agriculture, Health and Human Services, and Interior. By prohibiting collective bargaining in these agencies, the administration asserts that the move is necessary for national security.

Nancy Marshall Genser, a Marketplace contributor, provides an in-depth analysis:

“The executive order appears to cover most federal agencies, including the Departments of Defense, Veterans Affairs, State, justice and treasury, and parts of other agencies including Agriculture, Health and Human Services and Interior.” [00:47]

Unions have responded vigorously, with the American Federation of Government Employees Union announcing preparations for immediate legal action. The AFL-CIO has also criticized the order, describing it as punitive towards unions already engaged in legal battles with the administration.

2. Florida’s Bill to Loosen Child Labor Laws

Timestamp: 01:37 - 02:52

The next story focuses on a controversial bill in Florida proposing significant relaxations to child labor laws. The legislation seeks to allow 16 and 17-year-olds, and in some cases 14 and 15-year-olds, to work full-time, including during school days and overnight shifts.

Samantha Fields reports on the potential impacts and the surrounding debate:

“Florida has a shortage of workers, and Governor Ron DeSantis has said teenagers could fill some of that gap rather than immigrants.” [02:22]

However, experts like Robert Latham from the University of Miami express skepticism about the bill's efficacy and safety implications. Sadaf Night of the Florida Policy Institute warns that reducing protections for young workers could lead to negative outcomes, such as academic struggles and long-term economic disadvantages for the youth.

“Juggling school and juggling a job, coming to school exhausted and tired, not able to focus, will really hamstring them in their academic achievement.” [02:47 – Janelie Espinal]

The bill's proponents argue that it addresses labor shortages, but the opposition highlights the potential risks to young workers' well-being and future prospects.

3. Inflation Metrics and the Federal Reserve’s Dilemma

Timestamp: 02:58 - 04:52

A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to discussing the latest inflation data and its implications for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, a key measure of inflation, has risen more than expected, posing challenges for the Fed.

Susan Schmidt, a portfolio manager at Exchange Capital Resources, provides expert commentary:

“The core rate is higher than people expected, hotter than the Fed wants, and it's going to give some pause on any chance of changing interest rates in the near future.” [03:34]

She explains that the current PCE figures, which exclude food and energy prices, indicate persistent inflationary pressures. This uptick complicates the Fed's efforts to balance between controlling inflation and not stifling economic growth, especially with new tariffs that may further drive up prices.

“The Fed's in a difficult position right now. Last week's comments from Chairman Powell said that they're really not going to do anything. He's watching things carefully, and I think that's the way the market is going to take this.” [04:13]

Susan anticipates that the Fed is unlikely to lower interest rates soon, given the ongoing inflation concerns exacerbated by potential tariff implementations.

4. US-Canada Trade Tensions and Business Implications

Timestamp: 05:07 - 08:33

The report shifts focus to the deteriorating trade relationship between the United States and Canada. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has declared the traditional trade ties with the US as "over," signaling the imposition of retaliatory tariffs in response to US import taxes. This development forces Canadian businesses to reconsider their supply chains and explore reshoring—bringing operations closer to home.

Sam Grouet from the BBC provides on-the-ground insights:

“Like many Canadian businesses, Joanna Goodman is waiting for the dust to settle before deciding where to buy, where to sell, and what 'made in Canada' really means for the future.” [07:58]

Joanna Goodman, owner of Oleifine Linens in Toronto, discusses the challenges faced by businesses reliant on American products:

“The tariffs could be gone tomorrow. Let’s see how it all unfolds and then, you know, we'll start making decisions.” [08:09]

Economist Randall Bartlett offers a broader perspective on the potential shifts in Canadian industries:

“Maybe in processing steel and aluminum. You may see more upstream manufacturing to support sectors like mining. A lot of that I think will come back to Canada's comparative advantages.” [06:36]

Despite talks of reshoring, Bartlett notes that significant action has yet to materialize, with only a small percentage of Canadian businesses planning to relocate supply chain activities domestically. The focus appears to remain on leveraging Canada’s strengths in natural resources rather than overhauling entire industries like automotive manufacturing.

Sam Grouet highlights the complexities and uncertainties businesses face amid fluctuating tariffs:

“Hanging over all of this, the US Government's rapidly changing policies on tariffs.” [08:01]

The segment underscores the precarious position of Canadian businesses navigating between maintaining longstanding trade relationships and adapting to new economic realities.

Conclusion

This episode of the Marketplace Morning Report provides a comprehensive overview of significant economic developments, from federal labor policies and state-level labor law changes to inflationary trends affecting national monetary policies and international trade tensions. Through expert analysis and real-world business perspectives, the report underscores the intricate balance policymakers and business leaders must maintain in an ever-evolving economic landscape.

For more in-depth coverage and ongoing updates, listeners are encouraged to tune into future episodes of Marketplace Morning Report.