The fight over job training for younger people

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report: The Fight Over Job Training for Younger People

Episode Overview Released on June 26, 2025, the "Marketplace Morning Report" hosted by David Brancaccio delves into pressing economic and social issues shaping the United States. This episode, titled "The Fight Over Job Training for Younger People," primarily focuses on the controversial federal Job Corps program, recent GDP revisions, and the escalating costs of home ownership. Through insightful interviews and firsthand accounts, the report offers a comprehensive analysis of these critical topics.

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1. The Fight Over Job Training for Younger People

a. Introduction to Job Corps The episode opens with David Brancaccio highlighting a significant legal development in Los Angeles. A federal judge has intervened to prevent the Trump administration from halting operations at the federal Job Corps program—a move the administration deemed necessary due to cost concerns.

b. Personal Story: Ezekiel Wilbur Brancaccio introduces Ezekiel Wilbur (24) from Omaha, whose life took a dramatic turn due to personal struggles. Ezekiel recounts:

“I was just rotting away in my bed every single day, high out of my mind.”
[01:55] – Ezekiel Wilbur

Seeking a fresh start, Ezekiel enrolled in Job Corps, finding solace and purpose at the Pine Ridge Job Corps center in Chadron, Nebraska. Six months into the program, he reports being sober and engaged in an apprenticeship for painting. Currently, he's working on painting a house for minimum wage, accumulating the necessary hours to graduate. However, the future of his center is uncertain due to proposed closures.

Ezekiel expresses his fears:

“It would be devastating. I wouldn't have anywhere to go. I'd probably end up living out of my car in my old neighborhood.”
[02:33] – Ezekiel Wilbur

c. Economic Analysis: Cost and Effectiveness The Trump administration justifies its stance by citing the high cost of the Job Corps program, which averages $80,000 per trainee annually due to its intensive nature. Economist Bert Barno from George Washington University comments on the program's financial sustainability:

“It's very expensive.”
[02:47] – Bert Barno

Barno points out that research on Job Corps outcomes is mixed. While younger participants (typically aged 16-19) do not show significant improvement in job market performance compared to their peers, older participants (20-24 years old) demonstrate sustained earnings gains.

To ensure taxpayer value, Barno suggests refining the program's focus:

“The Trump administration could narrow the Job Corps program's focus to those older students rather than scrapping it.”
[03:06] – Bert Barno

Adding to this perspective, Alfonso Flores Lagunes from the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research emphasizes the lack of alternatives for vulnerable youth:

“It is a very difficult population to serve, but I think that the worst option is just leaving them behind.”
[03:13] – Alfonso Flores Lagunes

d. Community Impact The potential closure of Job Corps centers extends beyond individual trainees. Jody Mitchell from the Bitterroot Valley Chamber of Commerce in western Montana underscores the program's vital role in local communities:

“Students at the nearby Trapper Creek Job Corps center help prevent and suppress wildfires, maintain hiking trails, crucial work that keeps the region's tourism economy afloat.”
[03:13] – Jody Mitchell

Mirroring Mitchell's sentiments, Savannah Peters reports on how Job Corps centers contribute to essential community services, highlighting the broader societal implications of shutting down these programs.

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2. Economic Update: GDP Downward Revision

a. Headline: GDP Declines in Q1 The report transitions to economic indicators, revealing a significant downward revision in America's GDP for the first quarter (January to March). The winter gross domestic product fell by 0.5%, a more substantial decline than initially estimated.

b. Analysis by Diane Swonk David Brancaccio introduces Diane Swonk, Chief Economist at KPMG, to dissect the reasons behind this revision:

“It is an important revision. It's a benchmark revision, and it was larger than many people expected to the downside, and that was mostly because we actually saw consumer spending come in much weaker in the first quarter than initially reported and inflation took higher.”
[04:41] – Diane Swonk

Swonk elaborates on the contributing factors:

• Consumer Spending Weakness: The first quarter saw a notable decline in consumer spending, a critical component of GDP.
• Higher Inflation Rates: Inflation was higher than previously reported, diminishing purchasing power.
• Tariff Preparations: Businesses engaged in front-running imports ahead of anticipated tariffs, leading to distorted economic activities.

She adds:

“We saw imports pick up in the wake of the election at the end of 2024 from China in particular, because he had been clear what his stance was on the campaign trail and he wanted to make good on some of promises, which he did on tariffs.”
[05:18] – Diane Swonk

Swonk also touches on logistical challenges reminiscent of the pandemic, such as shipping delays and record-high shipping rates, which further impacted economic performance.

“All of a sudden, ships weren't where they were supposed to be and shipping rates in two days in June went up at their fastest two day rate on record because trying to get everything back into the right place again and get these orders that people hope to get before the the pause on tariffs.”
[05:18] – Diane Swonk

c. Implications and Future Outlook The revision indicates underlying economic fragility, particularly in consumer behavior and international trade dynamics. Diane concludes by noting the expiration of tariffs with China and the ongoing adjustments businesses must navigate.

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3. Rising Costs of Home Ownership

a. Overview of the Housing Crisis Mitchell Hartman reports on the escalating costs of home ownership, a growing concern for American families. A new study reveals that the combined expenses of mortgage payments, property tax, and insurance have surged to consume nearly 34% of a typical family's income in the second quarter, surpassing the recommended threshold of 28%.

b. Economic Implications Since 2020, the cost of purchasing a home has increased by 56%, while average wages have grown by less than half that rate. Economist Joe Bruceuelis from the consulting firm RSM provides insight into the broader economic ramifications:

“The rising cost of home ownership raises the risk that more of them will lose their homes.”
[08:33] – Joe Bruceuelis

c. Impact on Young and Middle-Income Households The strain is particularly acute for lower and middle-income households, especially young Americans striving to finance their first home. As affordability diminishes, the report highlights the potential for increased mortgage defaults and financial instability.

“As lower and middle income households continue to struggle financially, the rising cost of home ownership raises the risk that more of them will lose their homes.”
[08:33] – Joe Bruceuelis

d. Banking Sector Response In response to the growing risk of mortgage defaults, banks are bolstering their loan loss reserves. This precautionary measure signals expectations of rising financial distress among homeowners and could have further implications for the lending landscape.

“Banks are increasing their loan loss reserves to cover rising mortgage defaults.”
[08:50] – Joe Bruceuelis

e. Community and Economic Health Mitchell Hartman emphasizes the broader societal impact, noting that housing affordability is integral to economic stability and community well-being. The continuing upward trend in home ownership costs threatens to exacerbate economic inequalities and strain social support systems.

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Conclusion

This episode of the "Marketplace Morning Report" provides a thorough examination of the challenges surrounding job training programs like Job Corps, the recent downward revision of GDP growth, and the escalating costs of home ownership. Through personal stories, expert analyses, and economic data, the report underscores the interconnectedness of social programs, economic policies, and household financial health. As policymakers and communities navigate these complexities, the insights presented offer valuable perspectives on fostering a more resilient and equitable economy.

Notable Quotes:

• “I was just rotting away in my bed every single day, high out of my mind.”
  – Ezekiel Wilbur (01:55)

• “It's very expensive.”
  – Bert Barno (02:47)

• “The Trump administration could narrow the Job Corps program's focus to those older students rather than scrapping it.”
  – Bert Barno (03:06)

• “Students at the nearby Trapper Creek Job Corps center help prevent and suppress wildfires, maintain hiking trails, crucial work that keeps the region's tourism economy afloat.”
  – Jody Mitchell (03:13)

• “It is an important revision. It's a benchmark revision, and it was larger than many people expected to the downside...”
  – Diane Swonk (04:41)

• “The rising cost of home ownership raises the risk that more of them will lose their homes.”
  – Joe Bruceuelis (08:33)

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Note: Advertisements and non-content sections have been excluded from this summary to maintain focus on the episode's primary themes and discussions.

Transcript

[David Brancaccio]

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[Joshua McNichols]

Here in Seattle, we're.

[David Brancaccio]

Building the technologies of the future, from AI to clean energy.

[Joshua McNichols]

But we're also dealing with some of today's biggest challenges, like the housing crisis and the skyrocketing cost of living.

[David Brancaccio]

We're here to break it all down for you.

[Joshua McNichols]

I'm Joshua McNichols. And I'm Monica Nicholsburg. Join us on Booming, a weekly podcast from KUOW about the economic forces shaping our lives here in the Pacific Northwest.

[David Brancaccio]

Listen on the KUOW app or wherever you get your podcasts. The Fight over Job Training for Younger People I'm David Brancaccio. In Los Angeles, a federal judge has stopped the Labor Department from halting operations at the federal Job Corps program, something the Trump administration was trying to do. A non profit sued to block the move and now a court has said that while the lawsuit plays out, that program has to stay open for business. Job Corps Tagline Careers Begin Here is a program founded in 1964 by President Johnson to give teenagers and young adults training in trades like construction or car repair marketplaces. Savannah Peters reports.

[Joshua McNichols]

24 year old Ezekiel Wilbur of Omaha has had a rugged couple of years. He says a fight with a family member landed him in jail. Once he got out, he struggled to readjust and started using drugs. I was just rotting away in my bed every single day, high out of my mind.

[David Brancaccio]

So I signed up to come to Job Corps because I thought of it.

[Joshua McNichols]

As a way out. Wilbur has been living at the Pine Ridge Job Corps center in Chadron, Nebraska for six months now. He says he's sober. He's in an apprenticeship program for painting. He's actually calling from a job site. So right now we're working for an elderly woman in town, painting her house for minimum wage and racking up on the job hours he needs to graduate. But this Job Corps center is on the list targeted for closure. It would be devastating. I wouldn't have anywhere to go, wilbur says. He'd probably end up living out of his car in his old neighborhood. The Trump administration says costs for the residential Job Corps program are too high. It spends $80,000 a year on the average trainee because it's so intensive.

[David Brancaccio]

It's also very expensive.

[Joshua McNichols]

That's economist Bert Barno, who studies workforce training programs at George Washington University. Plus, he says research on the program's outcomes is mixed. Teenagers who go through the program don't seem to do better on the job market than their peers who don't. But the older people who go into.

[David Brancaccio]

The job corps, typically 20 to 24, actually do have sustained earnings gains.

[Joshua McNichols]

To make sure taxpayers are getting their money's worth, Barno says the Trump administration could narrow the job corps program's focus to those older students rather than scrapping it. Alfonso Flores lagunes with the W.E. upjohn Institute for Employment Research says the federal government doesn't have much else to offer this group. It is a very difficult population to serve, but I think that the worst option is just leaving them behind. If these centers shut their doors, that would also impact the communities that host them, particularly in rural areas. Jody Mitchell is with the Bitterroot Valley Chamber of Commerce in western Montana. The firefighting that they help with is the biggest piece, she says. Students at the nearby Trapper Creek Job Corps center help prevent and suppress wildfires, maintain hiking trails, crucial work that keeps the region's tourism economy afloat. I'm Savannah Peters for marketplace.

[David Brancaccio]

The headline figure for economic growth in America has been revised sharply downward. It's for January to March. The winter gross domestic product fell five tenths of a percent. That's more shrinkage than first thought. Let's check in with Diane Swong, chief economist at the audit tax and advisory firm kpmg. Hello, Diane.

[Diane Swonk]

Good morning.

[David Brancaccio]

Do we have to talk about the third revision to the economic growth figure?

[Diane Swonk]

Well, it is an important revision. It's a benchmark revision, and it was larger than many people expected to the downside, and that was mostly because we actually saw consumer spending come in much weaker in the first quarter than initially reported and inflation took higher. So even though we've seen really good inflation inflation numbers since then, that first quarter was a bit of a mess and a muddle. And part of it was much of the front running we saw in imports before tariffs.

[David Brancaccio]

So even though this is the winter quarter, there was still planning for the possible tariffs that the incoming president was certainly telegraphing.

[Diane Swonk]

Absolutely. And in fact, we saw imports pick up in the wake of the election at the end of 2024 from China in particular, because he had been clear what his stance was on the campaign trail and he wanted to make good on some of promises, which he did on tariffs. And I think that's important because we saw companies hedge against it in the first quarter and then, you know, the minute they got a waiver and a pause, you saw that activity resume. But it actually triggered some things reminiscent of the pandemic. All of a sudden, ships weren't where they were supposed to be and shipping rates in two days in June went up at their fastest two day rate on record because trying to get everything back into the right place again and get these orders that people hope to get before the the pause on tariffs. The most prohibited tariffs with China expired or lapsed in August is underway.

[David Brancaccio]

Diane Swonk, chief economist, kpmg. Thank you.

[Diane Swonk]

Thank you.

[David Brancaccio]

Note that GDP measures money changing hands. Not necessarily. Well being not to be confused.

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[Diane Swonk]

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[David Brancaccio]

Pay off earlier, cancel CT mobile.com cost of owning a home going in the wrong direction. A new report finds home ownership costs are uncomfortably high most places. Here's Marketplace's Mitchell Hartman. The cost of home ownership. That's the monthly mortgage payment. Property tax and insurance should take up no more than 28% of a typical family's income. But in the second quarter, Adam reports it ate up nearly 34%. And the unaffordability gap is getting wider. Since 2020, the cost of purchasing a home has risen 56% while average wages have risen less than half that much. All this, says economist Joe Bruceuelis at consulting firm rsm, unfortunately is impacting the ability of Americans, especially young Americans, to finance the purchase of their first home. As lower and middle income households continue to struggle financially, the rising cost of home ownership raises the risk that more of them will lose their homes, says Bruce Welles.

[Joshua McNichols]

Down market, you see elevated interest rates.

[David Brancaccio]

To purchase homes and what goes along with that? Higher levels of defaults. Some homeowners, who may be underwater because they bought late in the pandemic, decide to send the keys back to the.

[Joshua McNichols]

Financiers and just get on with their lives.

[David Brancaccio]

One warning sign, says Bruce Willis. Banks are increasing their loan loss reserves to cover rising mortgage defaults. I'm Mitchell Hartman for Marketplace. And I'm David Brancaccio. This is the Marketplace Morning Report from APM American Public Media.

[Joshua McNichols]

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[David Brancaccio]

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[Diane Swonk]

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