Marketplace Morning Report
Episode Title: The hunt for deals begins. Ready, set, go!
Date: November 28, 2025
Host: Sabri Benishore (in for David Brancaccio)
Episode Overview
This brisk 10-minute episode focuses on the launch of the crucial U.S. holiday shopping season—Black Friday and Small Business Saturday—set against a backdrop of economic anxiety and shifting consumer behaviors. The show blends real-time retail outlooks, expert insights, and personal stories, concluding with a heartfelt segment on Social Security’s 90th anniversary and survivor benefits.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Black Friday Arrives in Anxious Times
[01:11 – 02:39]
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Record-Breaking Holiday Sales Predicted
- U.S. holiday sales (Nov–Dec) projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time—a ~4% rise from 2024.
- (Mitchell Hartman: [01:33])
“The National Retail Federation predicts holiday sales... will rise around 4% from 2024 levels and surpass $1 trillion for the first time ever.”
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Contradictory Economic Signals
- Kinshuk Jarath (Columbia Business School): Unemployment is low (~4.4%) but consumer sentiment is near all-time lows due to persistent high prices.
- (Sabri Benishore: [01:53])
“People actually have jobs and this is the holiday season.”
- (Mitchell Hartman: [01:56])
“But he says there are also contradictory signals coming from consumers. Sentiment is at a near all time low from high prices that people are facing.”
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K-shaped Recovery and Its Consequences
- Marshall Cohen (Circana): Economic recovery is uneven—upper-income households still drive spending growth, middle-income show vulnerability, while lower-income spending is sharply down.
- (Marshall Cohen: [02:14])
“The upper income driving the growth, the middle income starting to show some signs...”
- (Matt Levin: [02:19])
“... of vulnerability and the lower income dropping since January, he says.”
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Consumer Tactics
- Lower- and middle-income shoppers are highly focused on deals and discounts, even extending themselves via credit to maintain holiday traditions.
- (Mitchell Hartman: [02:24])
"Lower and middle income consumers will be laser focused on finding value, pursuing discounts and sales, but they'll still extend themselves..."
2. Small Business Saturday: Will Shoppers Pay to Stay Local?
[02:39 – 04:14]
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Origins & Growth
- Small Business Saturday began as an Amex campaign in 2010 but now has broad cultural momentum.
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Retailer Perspective
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Lisa Bennett (Black Sheep Gifts, Indianapolis): Preps for one of the year’s busiest days, running extra registers because “people come in with an intent to buy.”
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(Lisa Bennett: [03:20])
“For my store, we typically have one cash register. That's one of the days that we run two cash registers and hopefully, knock on wood, we'll have a line going the entire day.”
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Still, with inflation and labor market worries, basket sizes may drop.
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(Lisa Bennett: [03:41])
“Instead of spending $50 a person, they might spend $25 a person.”
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Shoppers’ Motives and Projections
- Retail Federation expects ~67 million people to shop small this year, up from last.
- Older and new reasons to support small shops: empathy for tariff-hit local businesses, fatigue with big box stores, and the pleasure of in-person shopping.
- (Matt Levin: [04:14])
“…it's just nice to buy stuff in real life once in a while and not at Target.”
3. Social Security at 90: Survivor Benefits in Action
[06:33 – 09:21]
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Personal Story—Heather Hill
- After her husband’s sudden death in 2014, Heather Hill struggled as a new widow with three young children and insufficient income.
- Survivor benefits (~$4,000/month) from Social Security were a crucial financial lifeline.
- (Heather Hill: [08:33])
“I wouldn't have been able to continue on at the level that I was able to without them. They were life saving for me.”
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Spreading the Word
- Now a funeral director, Heather actively educates grieving families and other directors about how to access survivor benefits.
- (Heather Hill: [08:57])
“Get that appointment as soon as possible. This is the information that you need to take with you.”
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
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On the K-shaped retail landscape:
(Marshall Cohen: [02:14])“The upper income driving the growth, the middle income starting to show some signs…”
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Retailer’s measured optimism about local shopping:
(Lisa Bennett: [03:41])“I firmly believe people are still going to buy Christmas gifts, but instead of spending $50 a person, they might spend $25 a person.”
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On the impact of survivor benefits:
(Heather Hill: [08:33])“They were life saving for me.”
Timestamps for Key Segments
- Holiday Shopping Preview & Sales Forecast: [01:11–02:39]
- Small Business Saturday – Local Retailer Perspective: [02:39–04:14]
- Social Security Survivor Benefits & Heather Hill’s Story: [06:33–09:21]
Additional Resources
- More on Social Security reporting: marketplace.org
Tone and Language
The episode maintains a knowledgeable yet approachable tone, blending expert economic insights with relatable personal experiences and upbeat anticipation for the holiday season, all while acknowledging underlying financial anxieties impacting U.S. households.
