Marketplace Morning Report

Episode Title: The hunt for deals begins. Ready, set, go!
Date: November 28, 2025
Host: Sabri Benishore (in for David Brancaccio)

Episode Overview

This brisk 10-minute episode focuses on the launch of the crucial U.S. holiday shopping season—Black Friday and Small Business Saturday—set against a backdrop of economic anxiety and shifting consumer behaviors. The show blends real-time retail outlooks, expert insights, and personal stories, concluding with a heartfelt segment on Social Security’s 90th anniversary and survivor benefits.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Black Friday Arrives in Anxious Times

[01:11 – 02:39]

• Record-Breaking Holiday Sales Predicted

  • U.S. holiday sales (Nov–Dec) projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time—a ~4% rise from 2024.
  • (Mitchell Hartman: [01:33])

    “The National Retail Federation predicts holiday sales... will rise around 4% from 2024 levels and surpass $1 trillion for the first time ever.”

• Contradictory Economic Signals

  • Kinshuk Jarath (Columbia Business School): Unemployment is low (~4.4%) but consumer sentiment is near all-time lows due to persistent high prices.
  • (Sabri Benishore: [01:53])

    “People actually have jobs and this is the holiday season.”

  • (Mitchell Hartman: [01:56])

    “But he says there are also contradictory signals coming from consumers. Sentiment is at a near all time low from high prices that people are facing.”

• K-shaped Recovery and Its Consequences

  • Marshall Cohen (Circana): Economic recovery is uneven—upper-income households still drive spending growth, middle-income show vulnerability, while lower-income spending is sharply down.
  • (Marshall Cohen: [02:14])

    “The upper income driving the growth, the middle income starting to show some signs...”

  • (Matt Levin: [02:19])

    “... of vulnerability and the lower income dropping since January, he says.”

• Consumer Tactics

  • Lower- and middle-income shoppers are highly focused on deals and discounts, even extending themselves via credit to maintain holiday traditions.
  • (Mitchell Hartman: [02:24])

    "Lower and middle income consumers will be laser focused on finding value, pursuing discounts and sales, but they'll still extend themselves..."

2. Small Business Saturday: Will Shoppers Pay to Stay Local?

[02:39 – 04:14]

• Origins & Growth

  • Small Business Saturday began as an Amex campaign in 2010 but now has broad cultural momentum.

• Retailer Perspective

  • Lisa Bennett (Black Sheep Gifts, Indianapolis): Preps for one of the year’s busiest days, running extra registers because “people come in with an intent to buy.”

  • (Lisa Bennett: [03:20])

    “For my store, we typically have one cash register. That's one of the days that we run two cash registers and hopefully, knock on wood, we'll have a line going the entire day.”

  • Still, with inflation and labor market worries, basket sizes may drop.

  • (Lisa Bennett: [03:41])

    “Instead of spending $50 a person, they might spend $25 a person.”

• Shoppers’ Motives and Projections

  • Retail Federation expects ~67 million people to shop small this year, up from last.
  • Older and new reasons to support small shops: empathy for tariff-hit local businesses, fatigue with big box stores, and the pleasure of in-person shopping.
  • (Matt Levin: [04:14])

    “…it's just nice to buy stuff in real life once in a while and not at Target.”

3. Social Security at 90: Survivor Benefits in Action

[06:33 – 09:21]

• Personal Story—Heather Hill

  • After her husband’s sudden death in 2014, Heather Hill struggled as a new widow with three young children and insufficient income.
  • Survivor benefits (~$4,000/month) from Social Security were a crucial financial lifeline.
  • (Heather Hill: [08:33])

    “I wouldn't have been able to continue on at the level that I was able to without them. They were life saving for me.”

• Spreading the Word

  • Now a funeral director, Heather actively educates grieving families and other directors about how to access survivor benefits.
  • (Heather Hill: [08:57])

    “Get that appointment as soon as possible. This is the information that you need to take with you.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the K-shaped retail landscape:
  (Marshall Cohen: [02:14])

  “The upper income driving the growth, the middle income starting to show some signs…”

• Retailer’s measured optimism about local shopping:
  (Lisa Bennett: [03:41])

  “I firmly believe people are still going to buy Christmas gifts, but instead of spending $50 a person, they might spend $25 a person.”

• On the impact of survivor benefits:
  (Heather Hill: [08:33])

  “They were life saving for me.”

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Holiday Shopping Preview & Sales Forecast: [01:11–02:39]
• Small Business Saturday – Local Retailer Perspective: [02:39–04:14]
• Social Security Survivor Benefits & Heather Hill’s Story: [06:33–09:21]

Additional Resources

• More on Social Security reporting: marketplace.org

Tone and Language

The episode maintains a knowledgeable yet approachable tone, blending expert economic insights with relatable personal experiences and upbeat anticipation for the holiday season, all while acknowledging underlying financial anxieties impacting U.S. households.