The hunt for deals begins. Ready, set, go!

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report

Episode Title: The hunt for deals begins. Ready, set, go!
Date: November 28, 2025
Host: Sabri Benishore (in for David Brancaccio)

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Episode Overview

This brisk 10-minute episode focuses on the launch of the crucial U.S. holiday shopping season—Black Friday and Small Business Saturday—set against a backdrop of economic anxiety and shifting consumer behaviors. The show blends real-time retail outlooks, expert insights, and personal stories, concluding with a heartfelt segment on Social Security’s 90th anniversary and survivor benefits.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

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1. Black Friday Arrives in Anxious Times

[01:11 – 02:39]

• Record-Breaking Holiday Sales Predicted

  • U.S. holiday sales (Nov–Dec) projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time—a ~4% rise from 2024.
  • (Mitchell Hartman: [01:33])

    “The National Retail Federation predicts holiday sales... will rise around 4% from 2024 levels and surpass $1 trillion for the first time ever.”

• Contradictory Economic Signals

  • Kinshuk Jarath (Columbia Business School): Unemployment is low (~4.4%) but consumer sentiment is near all-time lows due to persistent high prices.
  • (Sabri Benishore: [01:53])

    “People actually have jobs and this is the holiday season.”

  • (Mitchell Hartman: [01:56])

    “But he says there are also contradictory signals coming from consumers. Sentiment is at a near all time low from high prices that people are facing.”

• K-shaped Recovery and Its Consequences

  • Marshall Cohen (Circana): Economic recovery is uneven—upper-income households still drive spending growth, middle-income show vulnerability, while lower-income spending is sharply down.
  • (Marshall Cohen: [02:14])

    “The upper income driving the growth, the middle income starting to show some signs...”

  • (Matt Levin: [02:19])

    “... of vulnerability and the lower income dropping since January, he says.”

• Consumer Tactics

  • Lower- and middle-income shoppers are highly focused on deals and discounts, even extending themselves via credit to maintain holiday traditions.
  • (Mitchell Hartman: [02:24])

    "Lower and middle income consumers will be laser focused on finding value, pursuing discounts and sales, but they'll still extend themselves..."

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2. Small Business Saturday: Will Shoppers Pay to Stay Local?

[02:39 – 04:14]

• Origins & Growth

  • Small Business Saturday began as an Amex campaign in 2010 but now has broad cultural momentum.

• Retailer Perspective

  • Lisa Bennett (Black Sheep Gifts, Indianapolis): Preps for one of the year’s busiest days, running extra registers because “people come in with an intent to buy.”

  • (Lisa Bennett: [03:20])

    “For my store, we typically have one cash register. That's one of the days that we run two cash registers and hopefully, knock on wood, we'll have a line going the entire day.”

  • Still, with inflation and labor market worries, basket sizes may drop.

  • (Lisa Bennett: [03:41])

    “Instead of spending $50 a person, they might spend $25 a person.”

• Shoppers’ Motives and Projections

  • Retail Federation expects ~67 million people to shop small this year, up from last.
  • Older and new reasons to support small shops: empathy for tariff-hit local businesses, fatigue with big box stores, and the pleasure of in-person shopping.
  • (Matt Levin: [04:14])

    “…it's just nice to buy stuff in real life once in a while and not at Target.”

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3. Social Security at 90: Survivor Benefits in Action

[06:33 – 09:21]

• Personal Story—Heather Hill

  • After her husband’s sudden death in 2014, Heather Hill struggled as a new widow with three young children and insufficient income.
  • Survivor benefits (~$4,000/month) from Social Security were a crucial financial lifeline.
  • (Heather Hill: [08:33])

    “I wouldn't have been able to continue on at the level that I was able to without them. They were life saving for me.”

• Spreading the Word

  • Now a funeral director, Heather actively educates grieving families and other directors about how to access survivor benefits.
  • (Heather Hill: [08:57])

    “Get that appointment as soon as possible. This is the information that you need to take with you.”

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the K-shaped retail landscape:
  (Marshall Cohen: [02:14])

  “The upper income driving the growth, the middle income starting to show some signs…”

• Retailer’s measured optimism about local shopping:
  (Lisa Bennett: [03:41])

  “I firmly believe people are still going to buy Christmas gifts, but instead of spending $50 a person, they might spend $25 a person.”

• On the impact of survivor benefits:
  (Heather Hill: [08:33])

  “They were life saving for me.”

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Holiday Shopping Preview & Sales Forecast: [01:11–02:39]
• Small Business Saturday – Local Retailer Perspective: [02:39–04:14]
• Social Security Survivor Benefits & Heather Hill’s Story: [06:33–09:21]

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Additional Resources

• More on Social Security reporting: marketplace.org

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Tone and Language

The episode maintains a knowledgeable yet approachable tone, blending expert economic insights with relatable personal experiences and upbeat anticipation for the holiday season, all while acknowledging underlying financial anxieties impacting U.S. households.

Transcript

[Marketplace Host]

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[Sabri Benishore]

The hunt for deals begins From Marketplace, I'm Sabri Benishore in for David Brancaccio. Black Friday still brings more shoppers into stores than any other day of the year. This year, though, it comes at a time when surveys show consumers are anxious. Marketplace's Mitchell Hartman has more on how things are shaping up.

[Mitchell Hartman]

The National Retail Federation predicts holiday sales for November and December will rise around 4% from 2024 levels and surpass $1 trillion for the first time ever. Kinshuk Jarath teaches marketing at Columbia Business School. The unemployment rate right now is at about 4.4%.

[Sabri Benishore]

People actually have jobs and this is the holiday season.

[Mitchell Hartman]

But he says there are also contradictory signals coming from consumers. Sentiment is at a near all time low from high prices that people are facing.

[Sabri Benishore]

There's economic uncertainty.

[Mitchell Hartman]

This will be a K shaped holiday shopping season, says retail advisor Marshall Cohen at Circana.

[Marshall Cohen]

The upper income driving the growth, the middle income starting to show some signs.

[Matt Levin]

Of vulnerability and the lower income dropping since January, he says.

[Mitchell Hartman]

Lower and middle income consumers will be laser focused on finding value, pursuing discounts and sales, but they'll still extend themselves buy on credit to deliver a proper holiday for the family. I'm Mitchell Hartman for Marketplace.

[Sabri Benishore]

While Black Friday may be dominated by the targets and Walmarts of the world tomorrow, millions of shoppers will FL to storefronts that are less big and boxy. Small Business Saturday started as an American Express campaign back in 2010. Since then it has morphed into something much bigger for mom and pop retailers. The question hanging over small businesses this weekend, though, is with all the economic uncertainty out there, will consumers be willing to pay a little more to stay local? Marketplaces Matt Levin has this one Saturday.

[Matt Levin]

Is going to be one of the busiest days of the year for Lisa Bennett, owner of Black Sheep Gifts, a gift shop in Indianapolis.

[Lisa Bennett]

For my store, we typically have one cash register. That's one of the days that we run two cash registers and hopefully, knock on wood, we'll have a line going the entire day.

[Matt Levin]

Bennett says what really separates small Business Saturday for her store is people come in with an intent to buy. But with inflation and a weakening labor market, she's tempering her expectations.

[Lisa Bennett]

I firmly believe people are still going to buy Christmas gifts, but Instead of spending $50 a person, they might spend $25 a person.

[Matt Levin]

Despite tariff induced price hikes and consumer sentiment in the dumbs, the National Retail Federation still projects about 67 million shoppers will buy stuff on Saturday, up from last year. Catherine Cullen with the Retail Federation says while consumers are in money saving mode, they empathize with small businesses in the same boat.

[Marshall Cohen]

They know that businesses are often the.

[Heather Hill]

Ones bearing the brunt of some of the tariff costs.

[Matt Levin]

Plus, it's just nice to buy stuff in real life once in a while and not at Target. I'm Matt Levin from Marketplace.

[Lisa Bennett]

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[Superhuman Sponsor]

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[Sabri Benishore]

As Social Security marks its 90th anniversary, we have been bringing you the stories of people who rely on the Safety Net program. Social Security goes way beyond retirement income. For example, more than a million minor children receive survivor benefits from Social Security. After the loss of a parent or parents who worked and paid Social Security taxes. Marketplace's senior economics contributor Chris Farrell sat down with one widow who says her benefits were were life changing.

[Chris Farrell]

Heather Hill shows me some pictures of her late husband, Jonathan. He was with their three children in the cockpit of the commercial aircraft he flew for JetBlue.

[Heather Hill]

He just looks so proud there, doesn't he?

[Chris Farrell]

She plays a video of him taken at a party with a handheld camera where they lived outside of Raleigh, North Carolina.

[Mitchell Hartman]

Here we go.

[Heather Hill]

This is my favorite part.

[Chris Farrell]

Her husband, Jonathan, died unexpectedly from an aortic rupture in 2014 at age 43. He was at work in between flights on layover in San Diego. Heather says his death was a complete shock. At the time, their children were ages 6, 7, and 9.

[Heather Hill]

Right where you're sitting on that couch, on my couch is where I had to tell them what happened to their dad.

[Chris Farrell]

Back in 2014, Heather had just started an apprenticeship as a funeral director, and she didn't know how she would pay the bills on just one income.

[Heather Hill]

Not only am I grieving the death of my husband, I'm also now the sole provider. I was working part time. And so the panic comes in with, how am I going to support my family? How am I going to pay my mortgage?

[Chris Farrell]

Her boss at the funeral home suggested she get in touch with the local Social Security office. Because Jonathan had paid into Social Security throughout his career, Heather qualified for survivor benefits for herself and their children. It came to about $4,000 a month while her kids were young. The money was a financial lifeline.

[Heather Hill]

I wouldn't have been able to continue on at the level that I was able to without them. They were life saving for me.

[Chris Farrell]

Her monthly checks got smaller as each kid turned 18 these days. As a funeral director, Heather is passionate about spreading the word about survivor benefits with widows and widowers with children. She tells them to get in touch with Social Security right away.

[Heather Hill]

Get that appointment as soon as possible. This is the information that you need to take with you.

[Chris Farrell]

Heather's passion for counseling widows and widowers with young children extends beyond the personal. She helps to educate funeral directors about how people can file for survivor benefits to make sure more families can access them after a loss. In Hillsborough, North Carolina, I'm Chris Farrell for Marketplace.

[Sabri Benishore]

You can hear more of Chris Farrell's reporting on Social Security over at marketplace.org in New York. I'm Sabri Benishore with the Marketplace Morning Report. From 8:00pm American Public Media.

[Marshall Cohen]

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