The link between immigration and longer life

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report

Episode: The link between immigration and longer life
Host: David Brancaccio
Guest: Brian McGarry, Faculty Research Fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research
Air date: February 24, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode centers on new economic research revealing a compelling link between increased immigration—especially of healthcare workers—and longer lifespans for older Americans. Host David Brancaccio discusses this connection with Brian McGarry, co-author of a recent National Bureau of Economic Research paper, examining how a larger flow of immigrants can improve elder care and prevent thousands of premature deaths among seniors.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

AI-Induced Stock Market Panic

Segment begins at 01:31

• Recap of an unusual stock market selloff.

• A speculative analysis by Citrini Research about AI wiping out the economy by 2028 caused S&P and Nasdaq to tumble over 1%.

• Ben Kumar (Seven Investment Management) remarks on the viral effect of fear-driven scenarios in financial markets.

  “It hit a lot of, I don't know, emotional levers for people, things talking about companies that they use or that they might know. But the difficult thing with AI, with any technology is there historically...always been new jobs created by new technology.”
  — Ben Kumar [02:51]

  • The report offered no new hard data, only a scenario, but struck a nerve with investors.
  • Recent moves: Anthropic rolled out security-focused AI tools, affecting Microsoft’s stock, but Microsoft rebounded slightly.

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Immigration and Elder Longevity

Main segment begins at 05:01

• Follow-up to a previous episode on immigrants’ net contributions to the US treasury.

• Today’s focus: Research indicating that higher levels of immigration result in longer lives among Americans aged 65+.

  “What we find is that roughly a 25% increase in the flow of immigrants into the US we estimate would prevent about 5,000 deaths among our nation's older adults.”
  — Brian McGarry [05:38]

• Healthcare System Reliance:

  • US elder care heavily depends on immigrant workers, especially in support roles.

• Job Creation ("Crowd-In" Effect):

  “For roughly about 1,000 new immigrants coming into the US leads to about 173 more healthcare workers, both foreign and domestic...we find actually some, some slight sort of what we call crowd in...”
  — Brian McGarry [06:14]

  • Immigration doesn't displace domestic healthcare workers; instead, an influx increases demand for both immigrant and domestic workers.

• Role of Support Staff in Elder Care:

  “A lot of the care that's delivered is done by what we refer to as low skilled—not to imply that they don't have really great skills, but they don't require the same levels of education. And so that turns out to be a really important part of the health effects.”
  — Brian McGarry [06:59]

  • The benefits largely come from home-based elder care and improved nursing home staffing, provided mostly by less formally educated workers.

• Impact on Nursing Homes and Aging in Place:

  • Increased immigration helps keep more seniors at home rather than in nursing homes, indirectly improving quality and lifespan.

  “Nursing homes are inherently congregate living settings. Those are sort of ripe for infectious disease outbreaks. But we also know that for the most part older adults prefer to age in place than to age at home.”
  — Brian McGarry [07:31]

  • Quality of life likely improves as more seniors remain in their own homes, supported by a robust healthcare workforce.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Upside of Immigration for Elder Care:
  “By helping older adults age in place and stay in their preferred settings...”
  — Brian McGarry [07:31]

• Clarifying 'Prevented Deaths':
  “So we're showing the prolonged life benefits. But there's reason to suspect that there's also some quality of life benefits at play here as well.”
  — Brian McGarry [07:31]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:31 – Stock market drop triggered by AI scenario
• 02:51 – Ben Kumar on market psychology and viral fear
• 05:01 – Introduction to today's immigration and longevity study
• 05:38 – Main findings: 25% immigration increase = 5,000 senior lives saved
• 06:14 – Explanation of how increased immigration creates more healthcare jobs
• 06:59 – Importance of support staff and their role in elder outcomes
• 07:31 – Benefits to aging in place, quality of life and clarification on 'prevented deaths'

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Overall Tone

The discussion is matter-of-fact, informative, and grounded in recent research, with a clear emphasis on data and public policy implications. The tone remains accessible and avoids unnecessary jargon, reflecting Marketplace’s tradition of making complex economic issues easy for general audiences to understand.

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Summary Prepared By:
[Your Summarizer Name]
For listeners interested in the interplay of immigration, healthcare, and demographic longevity, this episode is essential—presenting robust evidence for the real-life impact of immigration policy on America’s seniors.

Transcript

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[David Brancaccio]

What happened when stock market players read an ominous tale of AI destruction? I'm David Brancaccio in Los Angeles. Yes, more confusion over which tariffs apply to whom and how much. But it was what one online commenter called a scary bedtime story that caused that significant sell off on the stock market yesterday. The S and P and the Nasdaq yesterday fell more than 1% after a lesser known stock analysis firm published a speculative piece about how artific intelligence could undermine the economy. By the summer of 2028, that is the day after tomorrow. This thing by Citrini Research caught fire among financial market participants. Ben Kumar is head of equity strategy at Seven Investment Management.

[Ben Kumar]

It actually came into my WhatsApp and I thought, okay, that's really long. I'll have a look at that later. You know, kind of 2028 retrospective. Fine, I like the idea, but come on, we've got stuff to do. And then the US Market opened And all I could see was Citrini, Citrini, Citrini.

[David Brancaccio]

The narrative had been AI is going to help everybody's profits by making us more productive. This thing is like AI could wipe out a lot of the economy and it doesn't present new data. It was just a scenario. And it looks like we had stock markets vulnerable to this kind of thing.

[Ben Kumar]

It hit a lot of, I don't know, emotional levers for people, things talking about companies that they use or that they might know. But the difficult thing with AI, with any technology is there historically in the last 4,000 years, there have always been new jobs created by new technology. It's just very difficult to say what they're going to be ahead of time. And I don't think this post kind of talked about the upside too much because it's more difficult to. So you've seen a lot of software based companies taking a hit. I think it was just a really well timed, compelling way to wrap up in a nice bundle. Everyone's fears about AI and it just caught the public imagination. It basically went viral in a way loads of the meme stocks have done in the past.

[David Brancaccio]

Ben Kumar at seven Investment Management in London now. In recent days Anthropic launched an AI based tool that digs into software code to find and fix security vulnerabilities. Now, Microsoft had long been making a lot of money doing that. And Microsoft stock fell 3.2% but popped back up 1 this morning. Today, Anthropic, backed by Google and Amazon, announced a fresh set of AI plugins just now to pick two a system to help wealth managers review investment portfolios and a way Claude AI could ride along in your Outlook, email and calendars.

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[David Brancaccio]

yesterday we talked to the author at the libertarian Cato Institute about a report showing immigrants of all economic classes contribute more to the US treasury than they draw out today. The case that older people live longer when there are more immigrants. This is from the National Bureau of Economic research and it's about the supply of foreign born health care workers, especially those involved in elder care. Ryan McGarry is one of the co authors of this paper. Good morning.

[Antoine Craig]

Great to be here.

[David Brancaccio]

Help me understand this connection, this equation between immigration policy and not dying prematurely. What did you find?

[Antoine Craig]

Yeah, so what we find is that roughly a 25% increase in the flow of immigrants into the US we estimate would prevent about 5,000 deaths among our nation's older adults. So these are 65 and older at the start of our study. And the motivation for this study really comes from the fact that our healthcare system disproportionately relies on immigrant workers.

[David Brancaccio]

And so the more immigration that's allowed in that population of immigrants, there's going to be a subset who are healthcare workers and that affects outcomes.

[Antoine Craig]

So we find in the paper that for roughly about 1,000 new immigrants coming into the US leads to about 173 more healthcare workers, both foreign and domestic. So often a concern with immigration is that the immigrants are sort of displacing domestic workers. In our case we find actually some, some slight sort of what we call crowd in where, you know, with greater capacity of immigrant workers, many of them who may be sort of support staff in the healthcare system, nurses aides may actually create jobs that allow hiring of other domestic workers.

[David Brancaccio]

And so it's not necessarily bringing in people who are sort of CEO level. You're talking about more rank and file healthcare workers.

[Antoine Craig]

Absolutely. And that's a really important point in this paper. A lot of the effect seems to come through keeping older adults out of nursing homes and for those who are in the nursing homes, potentially improving the quality of the care delivered. And so a lot of the care that's delivered is done by what we refer to as low skilled. Not to imply that they don't have really great skills, but they don't require the same levels of education. And so that turns out to be a really important part of the health effects.

[David Brancaccio]

And it must be defined as like premature deaths, right? I mean we all die in the end, right?

[Antoine Craig]

Yes, that's right. So what we're doing here is prolonging life for older adults. Nursing homes are inherently congregate living settings. Those are sort of ripe for infectious disease outbreaks. But we also know that for the most part older adults prefer to age in place than to age at home. So we're showing the prolonged life benefits. But there's reason to suspect that there's also some quality of life benefits at play here as well. By helping older adults age in place and stay in their preferred settings.

[David Brancaccio]

Brian McGarry is a faculty Research Fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Thank you so much.

[Antoine Craig]

My pleasure.

[David Brancaccio]

Our production staff includes Emma Condon, Tamar Fagan, Ashley Rodriguez, Ariana Rosas, and Erica Soderstrom our senior producer, Alex Schroeder, our supervising Senior producer, Meredith Garretts, and Morby this Marketplace Morning Report from APM American Public Media America's housing system is under strain. From natural disasters to the rising cost of shelter, the challenges we face and the solutions we embrace will shape how we live for the next home hundred years. I'm David Brancaccio, host of the Marketplace Morning Report, and I've been working with this old House radio hour on a special podcast episode that explores how Americans are reimagining housing in this changing world. It's called Building Tomorrow. From wildfire resistant houses in California to tiny home communities in Texas to a super duper energy efficient house in the Northeast, this special blends innovation, new business models and personal stories to explore how resilience, affordability and our climate reality are redefining what home looks like. To listen, go to Marketplace Morning Report in your podcast. Apparently.