The prospect of yet another government shutdown

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report — September 17, 2025

Episode Theme: The Looming Government Shutdown & Shifting Economics of Moviegoing
Host: David Brancaccio
Length: ~8 minutes
Main Focus: Current threats of a U.S. government shutdown, the economic and practical fallout of such events, notable market developments, and the ongoing transformation in how people consume movies.

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1. Government Shutdown: Stakes and Standoff

[00:48] Discussion Begins

• Political Dynamics:

  • Congress faces an end-of-month deadline to keep federal agencies funded.
  • Bipartisan cooperation is lacking, creating uncertainty about passing a stopgap funding bill.
  • Speaker Mike Johnson proposes a continuing resolution to extend funding at current levels until just before Thanksgiving.
    • Some Republicans dislike this approach, wanting new funds for district projects.
    • Democrats insist any short-term bill include money for health care (specifically for extended Obamacare subsidies due to expire soon).
    • Johnson insists health care funding is a problem for December, not now.

• Shutdown Odds:

  • Nancy Marshall Genzer: “The gambling website Polymarket puts the chances at over 50%. But seasoned political analysts have just 25% shutdown odds.” [01:59]

• What Happens if the Government Shuts Down?

  • Essential Services: Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid continue.
  • Federal Workers: Police and air traffic controllers must work—but without pay. Many federal employees are furloughed: “There would be no new Social Security cards issued. You couldn’t sign up for new benefits.” [02:17]
  • Service Interruptions: Food inspections could be delayed. During the last shutdown (2018–2019), TSA agents began skipping work, causing long airport security lines.
  • Quote: “Essential government workers like police and air traffic controllers, they would stay on the job and work, work without pay. But other federal employees would not be allowed to work...” — Nancy Marshall Genzer [02:17]

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2. Markets & Economic Updates

[02:50] Key Market Moves

• Mortgage Rates:

  • The average 30-year fixed rate has dropped sharply to 6.13%, its lowest in a year (via Mortgage News Daily).

• Upcoming Federal Reserve Decision:

  • In six hours, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter-point amid signs of a weakening labor market.

• Stock Market Snapshot:

  • Dow: up 256 points (0.6%).
  • S&P 500: flat.
  • Nasdaq: down 0.4%.

• FedEx Announcement:

  • Expected profits are pressured by new tariffs eliminating the de minimis exemption for low-value overseas shipments.

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3. Movie Industry: Changing Habits, Bleak Box Office

[04:30] Segment Start

• Guest: Abraham Ravid, Finance Professor, Yeshiva University

• Disappointing Movie Summer:

  • “A blockbuster summer it was not.” — David Brancaccio [04:30]
  • The industry catchphrase “Survive until 25”—now that it’s 2025, patrons still aren’t flocking back.
  • Ravid: “Basically, there’s been a secular decline in movie attendance in the last few decades.” [05:05]

• Shift to Home Viewing:

  • Professor Ravid explains:
    • Audiences are still watching movies, but convenience, cost, and technology are keeping them away from theaters.
    • Quote: “Doesn’t mean they don’t consume movies. It just means there are other ways to consume movies rather than just, you know, getting a babysitter. Finding parking and going to the theater at specific times...” [05:18]
  • Brancaccio notes: “You can buy right now... a 55-inch flat screen, 4K resolution screen TV for less than $300. You can kind of simulate the theatrical experience for not all that much money.” [05:46]
  • Ravid ups the ante: “I do better than that, David. I have 100-inch screen, but not TV screen and a projector and I put it in the basement...” [06:10]

• Market and Business Model Challenges:

  • Theater chain stocks reflect growing pessimism.
  • Ravid on streaming: Suggests they should “simulate” the moviegoing model—pay per view for movies, subscription for sports/news.
    • “If you don’t charge for anything, you just have subscriptions, very hard to know what’s the economic value of any content that you do.” [06:47]

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4. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Congressional Dysfunction:

  • “Bipartisan camaraderie is not the vibe in Washington these days.” — David Brancaccio [00:48]

• On the Uncertainty of a Shutdown:

  • “The gambling website Polymarket puts the chances at over 50%. But seasoned political analysts have just 25% shutdown odds.” — Nancy Marshall Genzer [01:59]

• On the Decline of Movie Theaters:

  • “There’s been a secular decline in movie attendance in the last few decades.” — Abraham Ravid [05:05]
  • “I have 100-inch screen, but not TV screen and a projector and I put it in the basement and you can basically have the same experience as a small movie theater.” — Abraham Ravid [06:10]

• On Streaming Business Models:

  • “If you don’t charge for anything, you just have subscriptions, very hard to know what’s the economic value of any content that you do.” — Abraham Ravid [06:47]

• Host Clarification:

  • “Professor Ravid used the term secular at the beginning of that. Economists use that to mean long term—secular versus cyclical, in case you’ve always wondered.” — David Brancaccio [07:44]

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5. Segment Timestamps Overview

• [00:48] — Government funding deadline, Speaker Johnson’s plan, party demands
• [01:55] — Odds and forecasts for a potential shutdown
• [02:17] — Real-world effects of a shutdown on services and workers
• [02:50] — Market round-up, mortgage rates, Fed outlook, FedEx news
• [04:30] — Movie industry check-in with Professor Abraham Ravid
• [05:05–07:34] — Discussion on moviegoing decline, home viewing trends, and streaming models

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This episode presents a concise but multi-faceted snapshot of current U.S. economic concerns and cultural shifts. The government shutdown threat looms large, with practical service disruptions at stake, while changing entertainment habits continue to challenge traditional movie theaters. The tone is urgent, realistic, and, at times, wryly humorous, guided by David Brancaccio’s seasoned reporting.

Transcript

[Maggie Smith]

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[David Brancaccio]

From Democrats to keep the government from running out of money at the end of the month. But bipartisan camaraderie is not the vibe in Washington these days. David I'm David Brancaccio in Los Angeles. Congress is once again playing with the prospect of a government shutdown. Lawmakers have until the end of this month to fund federal agencies for the new accounting year or else. Marketplace's Washington correspondent Nancy Marshall Genzer is a veteran of this trope. Nancy hey, David.

[Nancy Marshall Genzer]

House Speaker Mike Johnson wants to keep the government open by having Congress pass a continuing resolution this week. It would continue government funding, mostly at current levels, until just before Thanksgiving. Now, some Republicans don't like the timing on that. Others complain they need new money for their districts, not just a continuation of current funding. Democrats want any stopgap bill to include money for health care, apparently to continue Obamacare subsidies set to expire at this point. Speaker Johnson says that's a December issue, not something to consider now.

[David Brancaccio]

And there's a kind of readout on the odds of a shutdown.

[Nancy Marshall Genzer]

Yeah, the gambling website Polymarket puts the chances at over 50%. But seasoned political analysts have just 25% shutdown odds.

[David Brancaccio]

All right, essential services have to continue in a shutdown. How might most people run into the effects?

[Nancy Marshall Genzer]

Right? Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, they would not be affected in a shutdown. Essential government workers like police and air traffic controllers, they would stay on the job and work, work without pay. But other federal employees would not be allowed to work, so there would be no new Social Security cards issued. You couldn't sign up for new benefits. Food inspections have been delayed in past shutdowns. During the 2018, 2019 shutdown, you may remember, some TSA agents didn't show up for work. And there were long lines at airport security checkpoints.

[David Brancaccio]

Thanks, nance. The average 30 year fixed rate mortgage fell sharply yesterday to 6.13%, the lowest in a year, according Mortgage News Daily's calculation. Our coverage is now on the Marketplace morning podcast. In just over six hours, we'll get the Fed's decision on interest rates. They're set to go down one quarter of a percentage point. With new signs. The job market is weakening markets. The dow is up 256 points in early trading, 0.6%. The S& P pretty flat. The Nasdaq is down 0.4%. And FedEx tomorrow is expected to announce quarterly profits crimped a bit by the extension of tariffs to lower value shipments from overseas. The end of the de minimis exemption.

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[David Brancaccio]

With less than a week before the autumn equinox, the summer numbers are in for going out to the movies. A blockbuster summer it was not. Let's bring in Abraham Ravid. He's a finance professor at Yeshiva University who watches the entertainment numbers. Professor, welcome.

[Abraham Ravid]

Thank you.

[David Brancaccio]

I've been reading that there was this, I don't know, mantra, but a line floating around the movie business. It was something like, survive until 25. Well, here we are, 20, 25. What are you seeing? I mean, we're going to the theaters, but we're not flocking en masse, really, are we?

[Abraham Ravid]

No, we're not. And I'm afraid, at least as I read the numbers, we will not be flocking back to the theater anytime soon. Basically, there's been a secular decline in movie attendance in the last few decades. So people don't go to the movies as much as they used to. Doesn't mean they don't consume movies. It just means there are other ways to consume movies rather than just, you know, getting a babysitter. Finding parking and going to the theater at specific times rather than streaming it whenever they find it convenient to watch the movie.

[David Brancaccio]

Yeah, we could chew on some of the factors involved here. I mean, some of the people are like lost in their phone screens all the time. But speaking screens I just looked up, you can buy right Now, Professor, a 55 inch flat screen, 4K resolution screen TV for less than $300. You can kind of simulate the theatrical experience for not all that much money.

[Abraham Ravid]

I do better than that, David. I have 100 inch screen, but not TV screen and a projector and I put it in the basement and you can basically have the same experience as a small movie theater. And by the way, if you look at the stocks of the remaining theater chains, you know, the market is not very optimistic about the future of movie theaters.

[David Brancaccio]

So you're seeing some new thinking when it comes to the economic models that guide the streaming side of this.

[Abraham Ravid]

So I think the best model would basically be similar to moviegoing. In other words, when you watch something on streaming, you pay for it. And that in that way there's basically a way to quantify how much money you're making. So the creative team can get residuals, can get percentages. And also the companies, the streaming companies could understand how much money this makes. If you don't charge for anything, you just have subscriptions. Very hard to know what's the economic value of any content that you do. On the other hand, people should pay a subscription for streaming sports and news because this is content that's always new and keeps coming in.

[David Brancaccio]

Abraham Ravid is a finance professor at Yeshiva University who watches the entertainment industry quite closely. Professor, thank you.

[Abraham Ravid]

Thank you very much. Thank you for having me.

[David Brancaccio]

Professor Ravid used the term secular at the beginning of that. Economists use that to mean long term secular versus cyclical, in case you've always wondered. And Marketplace has a series called I've Always Wondered to explain what you want to know. Send us your questions marketplace.org wondered in Los Angeles, I'm David Brancaccio with our morning report from apm American Public Media.

[Maggie Smith]

Poetry has the power to connect our inner universe and the outer world. I'm Maggie Smith, poet and host of the Slowdown, a podcast from American Public Media. Each weekday, find time to take a breather from your to do list or doom scrolling for that matter, and take in a moment of reflection with a hand picked poem. Listen to the Slowdown wherever you get podcasts.