The spring housing market's not in full bloom

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report

Episode: The Spring Housing Market’s Not in Full Bloom

Date: April 14, 2026
Host: Sabri Benishore
Length: ~8 minutes (ads excluded)
Main Theme:
This episode examines the impacts of geopolitical events—specifically the ongoing war involving Iran—on global economic trends, with a particular focus on the unexpectedly sluggish U.S. spring housing market and rising inflation pressures stemming from higher oil and petrochemical prices.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Global Political Tensions and Economic Impact

• [01:16–01:59]
  • Sabri Benishore introduces the ongoing war between the U.S. and Iran and its impact on inflation, noting that gas price increases are “just the beginning.”
  • Reuters reports the restart of U.S.-Iran negotiations after failed weekend talks and the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports.
  • China’s response: President Xi Jinping observes international order “crumbling into disarray.”
  • China’s exports slowed sharply last month ([01:59], Nancy Marshall Genser).
    • March exports up only 2.5% from the previous year.
    • Factors: Late Lunar New Year, insulation from direct effects due to stockpiled oil, but vulnerable to fuel supply shocks from the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
    • “If the war drags on and consumers have to budget more for fuel, they’ll have less money for Chinese exports.” – Nancy Marshall Genser ([02:41]).

2. U.S. Spring Housing Market: Slower Than Expected

• [02:42–04:38]
  • New data: U.S. seasonally adjusted sales of existing homes down 3.6% instead of the typical spring uptick ([02:42], Carla Javier).
  • Experts weigh in:
    • Stephanie Moulton, Ohio State University ([03:06]):
      “I see it more as a symptom, not necessarily that we’re going to be constantly down month over month, but that there just is still a lot of uncertainty in the economy.”
    • Nadia Evangelo, National Association of Realtors ([03:15]):
      Market operating at “about 80% of a normal spring pace.”
    • Increase in home listings is positive—but many are “still priced above what typical households can comfortably afford” ([03:23], Stephanie Moulton).
  • Interest rates & affordability:
    • Ellie Wolfe, Zonda: The March housing data predates the escalation in Iran, suggesting the market “has gotten even slower since,” with buyers frustrated by rates and high consumer prices ([03:33–03:55]).
    • Moulton ([04:00]):
      “Now we're layering in the cost of transportation that’s gotten more expensive. So I think that that is keeping some consumers on the sidelines as well.”
  • Takeaway:
    • Fewer offers for sellers, more opportunities for buyers to negotiate better deals ([04:09], Carla Javier):
      “A market that continues to be soft means sellers might get fewer offers while buyers could explore their options and perhaps even negotiate a better deal.”

3. Inflation Beyond Gas: The Petrochemicals Effect

• [05:32–08:44]
  • Year-over-year prices are up 3.3% in March; the Iran war is a major factor, but ripple effects extend far beyond the gas pump ([05:32–05:44], Sabri Benishore and Elizabeth Trovall).
  • Plastics & Everyday Goods:
    • Elizabeth Trovall visits Texas Injection Molding, where founder Jeff Applegate notes rising costs for polyethylene, “the backbone of so many products” ([06:02]).
    • “When your material goes up 10 or 15%, it puts a real squeeze on you really quick…” – Jeff Applegate ([06:15])
    • Applegate’s customers are other manufacturers, but “eventually price hikes trickle down to consumers” ([06:28]).
    • Christiana Baumeister, Notre Dame ([06:43]):
      “Petrochemicals account for around 15% of global oil demand, and they are used in a wide range of everyday products.”
    • “The increased cost will basically ripple through to the industries that rely on petrochemical inputs.” ([06:55], Baumeister)
  • Wider Cost Pass-through:
    • By May, core inflation may jump from 2.6% to 3% due to pass-through effects ([07:03], Baumeister).
    • Yelena Shalitcheva, Conference Board: Higher diesel prices will “increase prices of manufacturing… will have a broader impact on a broader set of goods” ([07:25–07:37]).
  • Everyday Evidence – At the Supermarket:
    • Ed Herz, University of Houston energy economist, highlights grocery items “wrapped in plastic. Plastic wrap, Styrofoam encasements… that comes from petrochemical plants” ([07:47–08:09]).
    • Many shelf products (energy drinks, coffee drinks, diapers, even Chapstick) are fossil-fuel-based:
      • “Even though it’s a can, we know that inside is a plastic lining.” – Ed Herz ([08:09–08:24])
    • Trovall ([08:24]):
      As disruptions continue, shopping cart totals will keep rising.

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On China’s export vulnerability:
  • “If the war drags on and consumers have to budget more for fuel, they’ll have less money for Chinese exports.”
    — Nancy Marshall Genser ([02:41])
• On housing market uncertainty:
  • “There just is still a lot of uncertainty in the economy.”
    — Stephanie Moulton, Ohio State ([03:06])
• On affordability challenges:
  • “Many of those homes are still priced above what typical households can comfortably afford, especially considering mortgage interest rates.”
    — Stephanie Moulton ([03:23])
• On layering inflation effects:
  • “Now we’re layering in the cost of transportation that’s gotten more expensive. So I think that that is keeping some consumers on the sidelines as well.”
    — Stephanie Moulton ([04:00])
• On cost ripple effects:
  • “The increased cost will basically ripple through to the industries that rely on petrochemical inputs.”
    — Christiana Baumeister ([06:55])
• On breadth of fossil fuel dependence:
  • “It’s hard to find anything on the shelves that doesn’t have some connection to oil and gas.”
    — Ed Herz ([08:09])
  • “Diapers, shoe polish, lighter fluid, shampoo bottles, even Chapstick is made from fossil fuels…”
    — Elizabeth Trovall ([08:24])

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• U.S.-Iran War Update & Global Context: 01:16–01:59
• China’s Export Slowdown & War Effects: 01:59–02:41
• Spring Housing Market Overview: 02:42–03:00
• Expert Insights: Housing Trends & Affordability: 03:00–04:09
• Soft Housing Market Implications: 04:09–04:38
• Inflation & Petrochemical Supply Chain Strains: 05:32–07:03
• Pass-through Effects & Supermarket Impact: 07:03–08:44

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Overall Tone

• Informed, brisk, and pragmatic; stresses real-world effects for businesses and regular Americans, especially around household costs and economic uncertainty.

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In Summary

This episode crisply ties together major global economic and business repercussions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict. Not only are gas prices on the rise, but broader supply chains—from housing to plastics to supermarket goods—are feeling the strain. The U.S. spring housing market remains unusually sluggish, squeezed by high prices and financing costs, while everyday items get more expensive due to petrochemical price shocks. Experts warn that core inflation will likely keep rising in the coming months, affecting nearly everything in Americans’ shopping carts and further dampening economic optimism this spring.

Transcript

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[Sabri Benishore]

When it comes to the inflation from this war, gas is just the beginning. From Marketplace, I'm Sabree Benishore in New York. First, a quick update on the war. Reuters is reporting negotiations between the US And Iran may resume this week. That's after talks failed over the weekend and the US Imposed a blockade of Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf. One nation that's largely remained aloof from the war is China. But today China's President Xi Jinping observed that the international order is crumbling into disarray. The Meanwhile, China's exports slowed sharply last month. Marketplace's Nancy Marshall Genser takes a look at how the war is affecting China's bottom line.

[Nancy Marshall Genser]

The Chinese government reported today that exports in March were up just 2.5% from the same time last year. That's a steep decline from the beginning of the year. Part of the drop off could be due to a late Lunar New Year holiday when factories shut down and China is somewhat insulated from the effects of the war. Demand for green products from China, like electric vehicles, is and Beijing has stockpiles of oil. But it is a major importer of Iranian oil, which could be choked off by the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. And if the war drags on and consumers have to budget more for fuel, they'll have less money for Chinese exports. I'm Nancy Marshall Genser for Marketplace.

[Sabri Benishore]

It is spring and the real estate market is supposed to be popping. It is not, at least not as much as usual. New data out this week from the national association of Realtors shows seasonally adjusted sales of existing homes were actually down 3.6%. Marketplace's Carla Javier has that the extent

[Carla Javier]

of the drop was a bit unexpected, says Stephanie Moulton at the Ohio State University.

[Stephanie Moulton]

I see it more as a symptom, not necessarily that we're going to be constantly down month over month, but that there just is still a lot of uncertainty in the economy.

[Carla Javier]

The market is operating about 80% of a normal spring pace, says Nadia Evangelo at the national association of Realtors.

[Stephanie Moulton]

So yes, we are seeing more homes hit the market. That's positive. But many of those homes are still priced above what typical households can comfortably

[Carla Javier]

afford, especially considering mortgage interest rates. Ellie Wolfe at Zonda points out that the March sales data largely predate the war in Iran.

[Stephanie Moulton]

The market already didn't look particularly good going into Iran, and now we don't have perfect data as to how the market has evolved, but I would guess that the market has gotten even slower since, she says.

[Carla Javier]

A lot of buyers were already frustrated with interest rates and grocery prices.

[Stephanie Moulton]

Now we're layering in the cost of transportation that's gotten more expensive. So I think that that is keeping some consumers on the sidelines as well.

[Carla Javier]

A market that continues to be soft, Wolf says, means sellers might get fewer offers while buyers could explore their options and perhaps even negotiate a better deal. I'm Carla Javier from Marketplace.

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[Sabri Benishore]

prices went up 3.3% in a year in March. And yes, that's mostly the war in Iran driving up gas prices. But gas is just the start. Marketplaces Elizabeth Trovall has more.

[Elizabeth Trovall]

At Texas Injection Molding in southeast Houston, machines are heating up plastic and forming it into things like bait buckets and medical grade containers. During our tour of the manufacturing corps, founder Jeff Applegate says the company goes through roughly 8 million pounds of plastic a year.

[Ed Herz]

This is polyethylene. Lots and lots and lots of products are made out of polyethylene.

[Elizabeth Trovall]

Because of the war in the Middle east, plastics like this are in tighter supply around the world and are getting more and more expensive.

[Ed Herz]

And so when your material goes up 10 or 15%, it puts a real squeeze on you really quick. The longer this goes on, the more disruption there is that we'll have to pass some of those costs on to our customers.

[Elizabeth Trovall]

Applegate's customers are manufacturers, but eventually price hikes trickle down to consumers, and that goes for all kinds of supply chains that include petrochemical products, says Notre Dame's Christiana Baumeister.

[Stephanie Moulton]

Petrochemicals account for around 15% of global oil demand, and they are used in a wide range of everyday products.

[Elizabeth Trovall]

Plastics, of course, but also fertilizers and detergents.

[Stephanie Moulton]

The increased cost will basically ripple through to the industries that rely on petrochemical inputs.

[Elizabeth Trovall]

By May, she says, we'll start feeling those ripples. She expects core inflation, which doesn't include gasoline or other energy price hikes, to rise to 3%. Right now, it's 2.6%. Yelena Shalitcheva with the Conference Board says pass through effects will also come from higher diesel prices.

[Stephanie Moulton]

We use diesel to transport goods across the country. It could increase prices of manufacturing. You know, that will have a broader

[Carla Javier]

impact on a broader set of goods,

[Elizabeth Trovall]

goods that you see at the grocery store every day. Ed Herz is an energy economist with the University of Houston.

[Ed Herz]

Here we are in the cheese department, everything wrapped in plastic.

[Elizabeth Trovall]

As we walk through this southwest Houston supermarket, he spots many of the consumer products touched by fossil fuels.

[Ed Herz]

The meat displays, everything. Plastic wrap, the Styrofoam encasements, all of that comes from petrochemical plants.

[Elizabeth Trovall]

It's hard to find anything on the shelves that doesn't have some connection to oil and gas.

[Ed Herz]

Over here we've got the energy drinks, the coffee drinks, and even though it's a can, we know that inside is a plastic lining.

[Elizabeth Trovall]

Diapers, shoe polish, lighter fluid, shampoo bottles, even Chapstick is made from fossil fuels, which means as the oil and gas disruption stretches on, what we put in our shopping carts is likely to get pricier. In Houston, I'm Elizabeth Troval for Marketplace,

[Sabri Benishore]

and in New York, I'm Sabri Benishore with the Marketplace morning Report from 8pm American Public Media.

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