The wider consequences of war

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report — "The Wider Consequences of War"

Date: April 1, 2026
Host: Sabri Benishore (in for David Brancaccio)
Featured Guest: Clara Gillespie, Council on Foreign Relations
Episode Focus: The global economic ripple effects of war, with a special focus on energy prices, threats to US businesses abroad, and how countries—especially in Asia—are coping with resulting instability.

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Main Theme and Purpose

This episode centers on the far-reaching economic and business consequences of the ongoing war involving the US and Iran. It highlights rising fuel prices, threatened attacks on US businesses, and the disproportionate impact of these disruptions on Asian economies. Through expert insights and on-the-ground reporting, the episode examines how nations and industries are adjusting to this volatile environment.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Escalating Conflict and Business Threats

[01:09]

• Host Sabri Benishore sets the scene: President Trump is about to address the nation regarding the conflict with Iran, which he optimistically claims may end in 2–3 weeks, even without a formal peace deal.

• Iran’s Direct Threats: Nova Safo reports that Iran, via semi-official news outlets, is threatening "regional attacks" against US companies in the Gulf, specifically naming major firms such as Microsoft, Google, Intel, Tesla, and Boeing.

  • Iran warns employee safety is at risk and gives a specific threat window: attacks could begin at "8 pm local time," roughly 12:30 pm Eastern.

  • Notable Moment [01:41]: Nova Safo draws a parallel to earlier war incidents, recalling drone attacks that "damaged three Amazon data centers in the Gulf," exposing tech firms’ vulnerabilities.

    "Data centers are large complexes and not protected against military attacks. Cloud computing networks have redundancies but can suffer outages if multiple locations go offline."
    —Nova Safo [02:04]

• US Response: The White House says the military is ready to intervene if Iran carries out its threats.

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2. Soaring Fuel Prices and Their Impact

[02:36]

• Current Price Surges: Gasoline up 36% in one month, diesel by 32%, and jet fuel more than doubling (over 100% increase).
• Effects on Travel: Samantha Fields investigates how airlines and consumers are coping:

  • Bookings Spiked After War Started: Most travelers hadn’t yet booked summer travel pre-conflict, now facing much higher airfares.

  • Quote [03:08]:

    "It doesn't matter whether it's a budget airline or a global network airline. Whether you're paying first class or a coach, you are seeing higher fares for every type of flight on every type of route."
    —Henry Harteveldt, Atmosphere Research Group [03:08]

  • Fuel Surcharges: Drastic increases on international flights.

    "A London fare that I was looking at had a fuel surcharge of approximately $300 back in February. When I looked yesterday, the fuel surcharge was $800 on the round trip."
    —Nova Safo [03:24]

  • Passing on Costs: Meghna Maharishi (Skift) notes airlines are passing rising costs to consumers, but demand remains strong, especially among premium travelers.

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3. Economic Slowdown and Global Inequality

[05:18]

• US Outlook: $4/gallon gas is predicted to slow US growth in 2026, but economists are not forecasting a recession.
• Global Disparity: Other regions, particularly Asia, are experiencing far more severe impacts.

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4. Asia’s Disproportionate Burden

Interview: Clara Gillespie, Council on Foreign Relations [05:43–08:32]

• Immediate Effects:

  • Nations like the Philippines (almost entirely reliant on imported oil) feel price spikes directly and rapidly.

  • Less fuel subsidization means consumers absorb more of the shock.

  • Flow-on effects to state budgets and broader economies are looming.

    "You have, for example, the Philippines is virtually fully reliant on imported oil to meet its needs for that fuel. So this disruption hits fairly immediately and directly."
    —Clara Gillespie [06:04]

• Why Is Asia Hit Hardest?

  • 80% of Middle Eastern oil and natural gas flows to Asia.
  • Asia houses the world’s largest energy consumers.
  • Subsidy structures vary, often exposing consumers faster to market shocks.

• Alternatives & Constraints:

  • Limited stockpiles—some countries down to less than 50 days.

  • Oil quality matters ("light and sweet vs. sour and heavy"), and not all countries have the infrastructure to process all types of oil.

  • Renewables and nuclear are not immediate solutions but remain long-term goals.

  • Some countries (e.g., Philippines, Indonesia) may tap underutilized coal in the short term, but are still rhetorically prioritizing green transitions.

    "The challenge there is not always that there isn't that supply available. But different kinds of oil also have different grades and abilities... which can shape how different economies have built their refineries, their manufacturing capabilities to make use of this."
    —Clara Gillespie [07:08]

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Notable Quotes

• Nova Safo [01:41]:

  "Iran warned it will launch regional attacks against US Businesses it accuses of aiding in the war. Among those named are Microsoft, Google, Intel, Tesla and Boeing."

• Henry Harteveldt [03:08]:

  "It doesn't matter whether it's a budget airline or a global network airline. Whether you're paying first class or a coach, you are seeing higher fares for every type of flight on every type of route."

• Nova Safo [03:24]:

  "A London fare that I was looking at had a fuel surcharge of approximately $300 back in February. When I looked yesterday, the fuel surcharge was $800 on the round trip."

• Clara Gillespie [06:04]:

  "The Philippines is virtually fully reliant on imported oil ... so this disruption hits fairly immediately and directly."

• Clara Gillespie [07:08]:

  "The challenge there is not always that there isn't that supply available. But different kinds of oil also have different grades and abilities..."

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Key Timestamps

• 01:09 — Host introduces war update; Iran threatens US businesses.
• 01:41 — Nova Safo details threatened attacks and tech vulnerability.
• 02:36 — Gas, diesel, jet fuel spike; intro to airline impacts.
• 03:08 — All fares rising; surcharges way up.
• 05:18 — Economic growth dampened in the US, more dire abroad.
• 05:43 — Interview with Clara Gillespie begins (Asia’s experience).
• 06:36 — Discussion: Why Asia’s disruptions are worse.
• 07:08 — Challenges in alternative oil supplies and infrastructure.
• 08:01 — Consideration of renewables, nuclear, and coal as alternatives.

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Summary Takeaway

This episode paints a vivid picture of how war’s reach extends far beyond the battlefield, affecting everything from major US tech firms’ operations in the Gulf to airfare pricing for everyday consumers, with the gravest economic effects emerging in Asian countries heavily reliant on imported fuel. The conversation with Clara Gillespie underscores both the urgency and complexity of energy security and transition in a rapidly destabilizing world economy.

Transcript

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[Sabri Benishore]

Markets are hopeful, but for now, the war is still very much on. From Marketplace, I'm Sabri Benishore in for David Brancaccio. President Trump is scheduled to address the nation about Iran tonight at 9pm Eastern. He told reporters yesterday the war could wrap up in two to three weeks, even if there is no peace deal struck with Iran's government. Meanwhile, Iran Iran has issued a new threat against US Businesses operating in the Gulf region, saying they'll be targeted within hours. Marketplace's Nova Safo has more on that

[Nova Safo]

through semi official news agencies. Iran warned it will launch regional attacks against US Businesses it accuses of aiding in the war. Among those named are Microsoft, Google, Intel, Tesla and Boeing. The attacks will reportedly commence at 8pm local time, which would be around 12:30pm Eastern. Iran warned employees of the companies it named to leave their work workplaces. The White House responded that the US Military is prepared to curtail the attacks if Iran follows through on its threats. It would be reminiscent of the war's early days, when drones damaged three Amazon data centers in the Gulf. The attacks highlighted vulnerabilities, especially for tech companies. Data centers are large complexes and not protected against military attacks. Cloud computing networks have redundancies but can suffer outages if multiple locations go offline. I'm Novas safo for Marketplace.

[Sabri Benishore]

The fuels that get us from A to B have gotten a lot more expensive. Gas is up 36% in a month, diesel up 32%, and then there is jet fuel. It is up more than 100%, though it did come down a hair last week. Marketplace's Samantha Fields has more on how spiking fuel prices are affecting airlines and travelers.

[Reema Reis]

People tend to book plane tickets a month to three months in advance, so many had not yet booked summer travel when the war began in February. Since then, Henry Harteveldt at Atmosphere Research Group says airfares have jumped.

[Nova Safo]

It doesn't matter whether it's a budget airline or a global network airline. Whether you're paying first class or a coach, you are seeing higher fares for every type of flight on every type of route.

[Reema Reis]

Airlines have also increased fuel surcharges on international flights.

[Nova Safo]

A London fare that I was looking at had a fuel surcharge of approximately $300 back in February. When I looked yesterday, the fuel surcharge was $800 on the round trip.

[Reema Reis]

As airlines costs have risen, Meghna Maharishi at the travel site Skift says they've been finding a variety of ways to pass them on to consumers. We're not really getting too many indications that these increases are having a super strong effect on demand. But much of that demand is being propped up by premium travelers. So far, she says those premium travelers airlines have increasingly been catering to seem undeterred by rising prices. I'm Samantha Fields for Marketplace.

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[Sabri Benishore]

four dollar a gallon gas is not great. Economists say it'll slow down economic growth this year. But most are not predicting it'll take us into recession territory. That is not the case elsewhere in the world. Countries that had no role in starting or waging this war are paying a heavy price for it. This is particularly true in Asia. Clara Gillespie is Senior Fellow for Climate and Energy at the Council on Foreign Relations. She joins us to talk about why. Good morning.

[Clara Gillespie]

Good morning. Thank you for having me.

[Sabri Benishore]

The Philippines declared a national emergency a Week ago you had news anchors in Thailand urging people to use their AC less and, you know, taking off their suit jackets on the air because they weren't running their ac. It just sounds like the consequences are very powerful for people there in a way that we're not seeing here yet.

[Clara Gillespie]

They are and they're fairly immediate in multiple ways. So you have, for example, the Philippines is virtually fully reliant on imported oil to meet its needs for that fuel. So this disruption hits fairly immediately and directly. It's also one that has historically done less to subsidize the price of fuels. So it more directly and quickly hits consumers as well. But it's going to start to show up in state budgets as well and have knock on effects on the health of different economies.

[Sabri Benishore]

Why are the disruptions so much worse there?

[Clara Gillespie]

Asia is heavily reliant in a direct way on imports from the Middle East. So when you talk about the flows of oil and natural gas that come through the Strait of Hormuz, about 80% of both of those end up directly in this region. But, but we're also talking about some of the world's largest consumers of energy.

[Sabri Benishore]

Are there alternatives like stockpiles or could they get energy from somewhere else?

[Clara Gillespie]

Different countries do have some fairly substantial stockpiles, but not all in this region. So Talking about below 50 days in some cases. At the same time, you also do have a effort to look more globally and see where there is potentially additional cargoes available on the spot market or through other supply. The challenge there is not always that there isn't that supply available. But different kinds of oil also have different grades and abilities. So you have light and sweet versus sour and heavy, which can shape how different economies have built their refineries, their manufacturing capabilities to make use of this.

[Sabri Benishore]

So basically not all oil is created equally and not all countries are are able to process all oil.

[Clara Gillespie]

That's correct.

[Sabri Benishore]

What about alternatives like either renewables or nuclear or other fossil fuels like coal?

[Clara Gillespie]

In the near term, a number of countries do have underutilized capacity in coal. You also see a number of countries, and I'm thinking of the Philippines and Indonesia in particular. Note that they're still continuing to prioritize and focus on those energy transition goals.

[Sabri Benishore]

Clara Gillespie is Senior Fellow for Climate and Energy at the Council on Foreign Relations. Thank you so much.

[Clara Gillespie]

Thank you.

[Sabri Benishore]

In New York, I'm Sabri Benishore with the Marketplace Morning Report. From APM American Public Media.

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