Trump is ready for Davos. Is Davos ready for Trump?

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report

Episode: Trump is ready for Davos. Is Davos ready for Trump?
Date: January 20, 2026
Host: Nancy Marshall Genzer (in for David Brancaccio)

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Overview

This episode centers on President Trump's much-anticipated return to the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, after a six-year absence. Amid significant shifts in the global trading order and increased economic uncertainty, the discussion explores what to expect from Trump’s keynote, the current state of the global economy, and how recent political and technological changes are shaping the international landscape. The episode also features expert bites on housing and tariffs in the U.S. and offers insights into the real work that takes place at Davos beyond its high-profile panels.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Housing Market Trends

Guest: Larry Adam, Chief Investment Officer at Raymond James
Host: Nancy Marshall Genzer
Timestamps: 01:31 - 03:50

• Expect Continued Weakness in Housing
  • Mortgage rates have recently ticked higher, stalling hoped-for recovery in home sales.
  • Adam notes that affordability issues linger, making for a "very slow recovery in the housing market going forward." (01:51)
• "We've been hoping for mortgage rates to come down... but just over the last couple of days, you're starting to see interest rates tick higher." – Larry Adam (01:54)

2. Tariffs: Who Really Pays?

Timestamps: 02:12 - 03:50

• Tariffs’ Burden Not Falling on Exporters
  • Contrary to President Trump’s claims, new research shows only about 4% of tariff costs are absorbed by exporters.
  • Adam attributes this to corporate resiliency, including shifting suppliers, lower energy prices, and especially gains in efficiency through AI.
  • Corporations have largely avoided cost absorption, and consumers haven’t seen major price increases; businesses have protected margins by optimizing the supply chain.
• "They've become more efficient... corporate America, margins are pretty much at historically elevated levels, which tells me that they're not necessarily taking in a lot of the costs." – Larry Adam (03:16)

3. Preview: World Economic Forum in Davos

Guests: Henry Kerr, Economics Editor & Deputy Business Affairs Editor, The Economist
Host: David Brancaccio
Timestamps: 05:12 - 08:49

• Davos Attendees & Mood

  • Heavy hitters in business and politics are present: Microsoft, Nvidia, the German Chancellor, and, notably, President Trump returning in person.
  • The WEF is especially relevant this year due to global disruptions and the dramatic reconfiguration of trade and geopolitical order.

• "Somebody drove a bulldozer through their world trading system and I think globalization as they knew it." – David Brancaccio (05:49)

• The True "Work" of Davos

  • The main value lies in networking and informal meetings, not the flavorless official themes or panels.
  • "What this is is one giant networking event, the best in the world... real work gets done there, but it's not what you'll see on the stage." – Henry Kerr (06:45)

4. Trump’s Return to Davos: A Keynote to Watch

• Trump's speech is anticipated as the event's keynote, potentially overshadowing all else.
• There is speculation about whether Trump might break news, particularly regarding Greenland, a topic of great interest to European attendees.
• Ongoing uncertainty around a Supreme Court ruling on tariffs could upend global economic policies.
• “People want to hear what he has to say, given the extent of change going on... we’re still waiting for the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, which could at any moment upend the global trading system.” – Henry Kerr (07:17)

5. Forum’s Theme: “Spirit of Dialogue” in a Polarized Age

• The official 2026 theme sounds innocuous, but against the current backdrop of deep political polarization, even civil dialogue becomes “an edgy topic.”
• "Those official topics are always pretty bland... the theme really ends up [being] what's going on in the world at the time." – Henry Kerr (08:14)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Housing:
  "I think you're going to continue to see some weakness in the housing market because we still have some affordability issues."
  — Larry Adam, (01:51)

• On Tariffs and Efficiency:
  "If you look at CPI, if you look at corporate America, margins are pretty much at historically elevated levels, which tells me that they're not necessarily taking in a lot of the costs."
  — Larry Adam, (03:16)

• On the Disruption of Globalization:
  "Somebody drove a bulldozer through their world trading system and I think... globalization as they knew it."
  — David Brancaccio, (05:49)

• On the Real Work at Davos:
  "Real work gets done there, but it's not what you'll see on the stage."
  — Henry Kerr, (06:45)

• On the Theme of Dialogue:
  "Even just civil dialogue may be an edgy topic."
  — David Brancaccio, (07:54)

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Key Segment Timestamps

• [01:31]: Housing trends and mortgage rate discussion with Larry Adam
• [02:12]: Who pays the price for tariffs?
• [05:12]: Introduction to Davos 2026 and Trump’s anticipated return
• [05:49]: Brancaccio and Kerr discuss globalization disruptions
• [06:33-07:54]: The inside scoop on Davos, Trump’s keynote, and the forum’s real purpose
• [08:14]: The meaning (or lack thereof) in WEF’s official conference themes

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Final Thoughts

This episode delivers succinct, insightful analysis of the intersection between U.S. domestic economics (housing, tariffs) and the broader global context—especially as world leaders converge on Davos. The anticipation around President Trump’s appearance underscores the volatility and unpredictability in both U.S. and global economic policy, while the commentary from Henry Kerr exposes the dual nature of Davos: official platitudes versus the backstage dealings where genuine influence is wielded. The undercurrent is one of transition and uncertainty, wrapped in the formality and networking spectacle that defines the World Economic Forum.

Transcript

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[Nancy Marshall Genzer]

President Trump heads to Davos from Marketplace, I'm Nancy Marshall Genzer in for David Boncaccio. First, Larry Adam joins us to talk housing and tariffs. He's chief Investment officer at Raymond James, which is a Marketplace underwriter. I started by asking what he expects when we get pending home sales tomorrow.

[Larry Adam]

Well, I think you're going to continue to see some weakness in the housing market because we still have some affordability issues. You know, one thing that we've been hoping for, that we'd see mortgage rates come down, which has been the positive so far. But if you look at the markets, you know, just over the last couple of days, you're starting to see interest rates start to tick higher. So continue to think that's going to be a very slow recovery in the housing market going forward.

[Nancy Marshall Genzer]

Pivoting to tariffs, they have contributed to costs. I know President Trump has said consistently that foreign firms pay for tariffs, but. But there's new research from a German think tank that found that only about 4% of the burden of tariffs is actually shouldered by exporters. Why do you think exporters don't foot much of the bill.

[Larry Adam]

So I think if you just look broadly in the context of corporate America, they're very resilient and I think that they've found different ways to try and mitigate those costs. If you look, for example, I do think that they've switched some of their suppliers. As you know, energy prices around the world have been cut, so that's reduced some of the spending, if you will, when it costs to transport. I think AI has had a big part of this in trying to reduce some costs as companies have gotten more efficient. So I think you have to look at all of that in the context of how we really haven't seen the big boost.

[Nancy Marshall Genzer]

Yeah. And consumers have been expecting prices to rise, but that hasn't happened that much because of tariffs. So who's absorbing these costs? Suppliers, wholesalers, retailers.

[Larry Adam]

For some reason, it hasn't really been as much as people think. As I mentioned, they become more efficient. If you look at each one of those components, the consumer really hasn't been paying. If you look at cpi, if you look at corporate America, margins are pretty much at historically elevated levels, which tells me that they're not necessarily taking in a lot of the costs. And as you mentioned, corporations around the world haven't really eaten a lot of the costs. So I think it's just everybody becoming much more efficient in the whole supply chain trying to make sure that these costs did not get put onto the end consumer.

[Nancy Marshall Genzer]

The U.S. larry Adam is Chief Investment Officer at Raymond James. Thanks for joining us.

[David Brancaccio]

Thank you.

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[Nancy Marshall Genzer]

The annual World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland, is in its second day today. It's a meeting of some world's most powerful people, one that often attracts protests. Among the biggest names, the heads of Microsoft and Nvidia, the Chancellor of Germany. And after a six year in person absence, President Trump is returning to the forum, where he plans to use a key address tomorrow to lay out his plans for making housing more affordable. For more on what we can expect, my colleague David Brancaccio turned to Henry Kerr, economics editor and deputy business affairs editor for the Economist magazine. He's in Davos.

[David Brancaccio]

The folks gathering in Davos, I think, have something to talk about this year, right? I mean, since they gathered a year ago, somebody drove a bulldozer through their world trading system and I think globalization as they knew it.

[Henry Kerr]

Yeah, that's absolutely right. Of course, Davos last year coincided with the start of the Trump administration, but it was still a bit unclear what the return of Donald Trump to the White House really meant for the world and whether it would be something that looked more like the first Trump term, when a lot changed, but nothing like as radically as it has over the past year. With respect, as you say, to the trading order, to the geopolitical order, and to an extent, to the domestic order in the US as well.

[David Brancaccio]

Henry, what do you think you've been before? I mean, does work get done at that ski resort? And if you think so, how does that work get done? I mean, it's not just speeches from podiums.

[Henry Kerr]

The real value of the conference of the World Economic Forum is the amazing list of attendees. Really, what this is is one giant networking event, the best in the world. And so, yes, I think real work gets done there, but it's not what you'll see on the stage. If you're in the conference room, among.

[David Brancaccio]

The dignitaries coming for the first time in six years will be President Trump, and he will speak. I would guess that the President sees his speech as the keynote of the whole gathering. I mean, is it the big ticket?

[Henry Kerr]

Yes, I think that's completely fair. I think an interesting question is whether the President will be able to resist breaking news somehow on Greenland, which is, of course, what everybody in Europe is most interested in hearing about. People want to hear what he has to say, given the extent of change that's going on. Also, of course, don't forget we're still waiting for the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, which could at any moment upend again the global trading system and the Trump administration's economic policy.

[David Brancaccio]

You know, I was looking at the overall theme for this year. At first blush, it seemed bland in the extreme. I think it's a spirit of dialogue. But then when you think about it, when you step back a little bit, in the polarized politics we see, especially in the US Even just civil dialogue may be an edgy topic.

[Henry Kerr]

Yes, definitely. And you know, because the main appeal of this conference is the attendees, those official topics are always pretty bland. The theme of the conference really ends up what's going on in the world at the time. Last year, it was the incredible breakthrough in AI in China with the release of the deep seat model. Those themes respond in a loose way to what's going on politically, but they're never the dominant takeaway from Davos.

[David Brancaccio]

All right, Henry. Well, dress warmly. Henry Kerr is economics editor for the Economist. Thank you so much.

[Henry Kerr]

Thanks for having me.

[Nancy Marshall Genzer]

Our producers are Emma Condon, Tamar Fagan, Ashley Rodriguez, Ariana Rosas, and Erika Soderstrom. Our senior producer is Alex Schroeder. Our supervising senior producer is Meredith Garretson Morby. In Washington, I'm Nancy Marshall Genzer with the Marketplace Morning Report from apm American Public Media.

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