Marketplace Morning Report

Episode: Trump is ready for Davos. Is Davos ready for Trump?
Date: January 20, 2026
Host: Nancy Marshall Genzer (in for David Brancaccio)

Overview

This episode centers on President Trump's much-anticipated return to the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, after a six-year absence. Amid significant shifts in the global trading order and increased economic uncertainty, the discussion explores what to expect from Trump’s keynote, the current state of the global economy, and how recent political and technological changes are shaping the international landscape. The episode also features expert bites on housing and tariffs in the U.S. and offers insights into the real work that takes place at Davos beyond its high-profile panels.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Housing Market Trends

Guest: Larry Adam, Chief Investment Officer at Raymond James
Host: Nancy Marshall Genzer
Timestamps: 01:31 - 03:50

• Expect Continued Weakness in Housing
  • Mortgage rates have recently ticked higher, stalling hoped-for recovery in home sales.
  • Adam notes that affordability issues linger, making for a "very slow recovery in the housing market going forward." (01:51)
• "We've been hoping for mortgage rates to come down... but just over the last couple of days, you're starting to see interest rates tick higher." – Larry Adam (01:54)

2. Tariffs: Who Really Pays?

Timestamps: 02:12 - 03:50

• Tariffs’ Burden Not Falling on Exporters
  • Contrary to President Trump’s claims, new research shows only about 4% of tariff costs are absorbed by exporters.
  • Adam attributes this to corporate resiliency, including shifting suppliers, lower energy prices, and especially gains in efficiency through AI.
  • Corporations have largely avoided cost absorption, and consumers haven’t seen major price increases; businesses have protected margins by optimizing the supply chain.
• "They've become more efficient... corporate America, margins are pretty much at historically elevated levels, which tells me that they're not necessarily taking in a lot of the costs." – Larry Adam (03:16)

3. Preview: World Economic Forum in Davos

Guests: Henry Kerr, Economics Editor & Deputy Business Affairs Editor, The Economist
Host: David Brancaccio
Timestamps: 05:12 - 08:49

• Davos Attendees & Mood

  • Heavy hitters in business and politics are present: Microsoft, Nvidia, the German Chancellor, and, notably, President Trump returning in person.
  • The WEF is especially relevant this year due to global disruptions and the dramatic reconfiguration of trade and geopolitical order.

• "Somebody drove a bulldozer through their world trading system and I think globalization as they knew it." – David Brancaccio (05:49)

• The True "Work" of Davos

  • The main value lies in networking and informal meetings, not the flavorless official themes or panels.
  • "What this is is one giant networking event, the best in the world... real work gets done there, but it's not what you'll see on the stage." – Henry Kerr (06:45)

4. Trump’s Return to Davos: A Keynote to Watch

• Trump's speech is anticipated as the event's keynote, potentially overshadowing all else.
• There is speculation about whether Trump might break news, particularly regarding Greenland, a topic of great interest to European attendees.
• Ongoing uncertainty around a Supreme Court ruling on tariffs could upend global economic policies.
• “People want to hear what he has to say, given the extent of change going on... we’re still waiting for the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, which could at any moment upend the global trading system.” – Henry Kerr (07:17)

5. Forum’s Theme: “Spirit of Dialogue” in a Polarized Age

• The official 2026 theme sounds innocuous, but against the current backdrop of deep political polarization, even civil dialogue becomes “an edgy topic.”
• "Those official topics are always pretty bland... the theme really ends up [being] what's going on in the world at the time." – Henry Kerr (08:14)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Housing:
  "I think you're going to continue to see some weakness in the housing market because we still have some affordability issues."
  — Larry Adam, (01:51)

• On Tariffs and Efficiency:
  "If you look at CPI, if you look at corporate America, margins are pretty much at historically elevated levels, which tells me that they're not necessarily taking in a lot of the costs."
  — Larry Adam, (03:16)

• On the Disruption of Globalization:
  "Somebody drove a bulldozer through their world trading system and I think... globalization as they knew it."
  — David Brancaccio, (05:49)

• On the Real Work at Davos:
  "Real work gets done there, but it's not what you'll see on the stage."
  — Henry Kerr, (06:45)

• On the Theme of Dialogue:
  "Even just civil dialogue may be an edgy topic."
  — David Brancaccio, (07:54)

Key Segment Timestamps

• [01:31]: Housing trends and mortgage rate discussion with Larry Adam
• [02:12]: Who pays the price for tariffs?
• [05:12]: Introduction to Davos 2026 and Trump’s anticipated return
• [05:49]: Brancaccio and Kerr discuss globalization disruptions
• [06:33-07:54]: The inside scoop on Davos, Trump’s keynote, and the forum’s real purpose
• [08:14]: The meaning (or lack thereof) in WEF’s official conference themes

Final Thoughts

This episode delivers succinct, insightful analysis of the intersection between U.S. domestic economics (housing, tariffs) and the broader global context—especially as world leaders converge on Davos. The anticipation around President Trump’s appearance underscores the volatility and unpredictability in both U.S. and global economic policy, while the commentary from Henry Kerr exposes the dual nature of Davos: official platitudes versus the backstage dealings where genuine influence is wielded. The undercurrent is one of transition and uncertainty, wrapped in the formality and networking spectacle that defines the World Economic Forum.