Marketplace Morning Report: "Truth is what statistics are all about"

Date: September 12, 2025
Host: David Brancaccio
Guest: Justin Wolfers, Economist, University of Michigan
Reporter: Carla Javier

Episode Overview

This episode centers on how economic statistics, particularly those produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), affect public understanding, policymaking, and the functioning of markets. It delves into the impact of rising grocery prices in the US, the political ramifications of revising official economic data, and the importance of data integrity for economic stability. The episode also touches on a high-profile immigration enforcement incident involving South Korean workers.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Rising Grocery Prices and the Consumer Price Index

Timestamp: 01:02–02:57

• Personal Consumer Experience:
  David Brancaccio opens by pointing out that everyone has their own "personal Consumer Price Index" based on their daily purchases, even as national metrics are used to guide policy and economics.

  "We all carry our own personal Consumer Price Index with us at all times." – David Brancaccio (01:04)

• Latest CPI Data:

  • Nationwide, grocery prices rose faster than expected.
  • "Food to use at home" prices increased by 0.6% (July–August 2025).

• Drivers of Higher Prices:
  Reporter Carla Javier notes that tariffs are not the main culprit. Retail consultant Bobby Gibbs explains that input costs such as labor shortages, weather, and production impacts are more significant.

  "Some of that comes from labor shortages... which is a potentially kind of ongoing cost impact." – Bobby Gibbs (01:50)

• Impact on Consumers:
  Charlotte Ambrzek, University of Minnesota, explains how low grocery store profit margins prevent stores from absorbing these costs, so consumers feel the brunt.

  • Inelastic Demand:
    For staples like meat, consumers will simply pay higher prices and compensate elsewhere in their budgets.

    "When prices go up, people will probably just be stuck paying higher prices and compensating for that in other ways." – Charlotte Ambrzek (02:14)

  • More Elastic Items:
    Fruit and vegetable purchases may decline as consumers substitute for cheaper alternatives or reduce meal preparation at home.

  • Shift to Eating Out:
    Prices for food away from home are rising less quickly, making fast-casual dining more attractive despite overall inflation.

    "People will eat more meals, especially at fast casual or fast service restaurants, which [could] save them the cost of the groceries plus the time it takes to figure out what to make and actually cook it." – Charlotte Ambrzek (02:33)

2. Immigration Raid and International Fallout

Timestamp: 02:57–03:36

• More than 300 South Korean workers, previously detained in a major US immigration raid in Georgia, have returned to South Korea. Images of these workers in chains have fueled anti-US sentiment in South Korea, highlighting the international political complications of domestic enforcement actions.
• The construction site affected is on Hyundai’s campus, one of Georgia’s largest economic development projects.

3. The Importance and Vulnerability of Economic Statistics

Timestamp: 04:48–08:17

BLS Under Political Pressure

• David Brancaccio covers the fallout from a Department of Labor internal probe into the BLS. Recent job numbers were revised down — this upset President Trump, who responded by firing the Bureau’s head and signaling intent to install an ally.

  "The president got told some bad numbers about the economy and then insist on firing the person who delivers those numbers." – Justin Wolfers (05:25)

• Justin Wolfers pushes back against criticisms that BLS data is too imperfect to be useful, explaining the complexity of measuring employment in a gigantic, dynamic economy.

  "It's such a difficult task to measure how many people are in work in an economy of our size... The question is, is there a way of doing it that's less imperfect? And so far, no one has come up with any approach that's less imperfect than what the Bureau of Labor Statistics is doing." – Justin Wolfers (05:30)

Comparisons to International Data Suppression

• Brancaccio mentions China’s suspension of youth unemployment statistics and Argentina’s manipulation of inflation data as cautionary tales.

  "In China, they stopped reporting youth unemployment when it started looking inconvenient..." – David Brancaccio (06:23)

  "This is something that happens not in serious first world economies... This comes from countries without the tradition of democracy, often driven by autocrats... Truth is what statistics are all about. I think we're served by having more truth. I can't imagine a way in which having less truth leads to better economic policy." – Justin Wolfers (06:32)

Real World Consequences for Data Manipulation

• Wolfers describes how undermining data credibility harms economic stability, citing the danger of increased borrowing costs for both the US government and ordinary Americans.

  "You can try and suppress statistics, but you can't suppress reality... If you’re not willing to tell me the truth about your finances, what is it I'm going to infer about you?" – Justin Wolfers (07:26)

Notable Quotes

• "We all carry our own personal Consumer Price Index with us at all times."
  — David Brancaccio (01:04)
• "When prices go up, people will probably just be stuck paying higher prices and compensating for that in other ways."
  — Charlotte Ambrzek (02:14)
• "Truth is what statistics are all about. I think we're served by having more truth."
  — Justin Wolfers (06:32)
• "You can try and suppress statistics, but you can't suppress reality."
  — Justin Wolfers (07:26)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 01:02: Grocery price inflation and the Consumer Price Index explained
• 01:33–02:57: Analysis of grocery inflation causes and consumer response
• 02:57: Coverage of South Korean worker detentions and international reaction
• 04:48–08:17: Deep dive on BLS data revisions, Trump’s response, and the integrity of economic statistics
• 06:23–07:26: Historical comparisons to statistic suppression in China/Argentina and consequences for the US

Tone and Style

The host maintains a calm, explanatory tone focused on relaying economic facts, but includes pointed analysis of political interference in data collection. Guest Justin Wolfers communicates with clarity and conviction, emphasizing the value and necessity of statistical truth for a healthy economy.

Outro and Teaser

The episode ends with a brief promo for next week’s discussion—addressing President Trump’s intervention in private business and the concept of “state capitalism”—and a plug for related BBC programming.

For listeners:
This episode delivers a concise but thorough overview of how statistics inform economic life—and what’s at stake when they are politicized or manipulated. Key insights include the sources and impacts of grocery inflation, the importance of data credibility for the financial system, and the dangerous precedent of government interference with statistical agencies.