"Truth is what statistics are all about"

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report: "Truth is what statistics are all about"

Date: September 12, 2025
Host: David Brancaccio
Guest: Justin Wolfers, Economist, University of Michigan
Reporter: Carla Javier

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Episode Overview

This episode centers on how economic statistics, particularly those produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), affect public understanding, policymaking, and the functioning of markets. It delves into the impact of rising grocery prices in the US, the political ramifications of revising official economic data, and the importance of data integrity for economic stability. The episode also touches on a high-profile immigration enforcement incident involving South Korean workers.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Rising Grocery Prices and the Consumer Price Index

Timestamp: 01:02–02:57

• Personal Consumer Experience:
  David Brancaccio opens by pointing out that everyone has their own "personal Consumer Price Index" based on their daily purchases, even as national metrics are used to guide policy and economics.

  "We all carry our own personal Consumer Price Index with us at all times." – David Brancaccio (01:04)

• Latest CPI Data:

  • Nationwide, grocery prices rose faster than expected.
  • "Food to use at home" prices increased by 0.6% (July–August 2025).

• Drivers of Higher Prices:
  Reporter Carla Javier notes that tariffs are not the main culprit. Retail consultant Bobby Gibbs explains that input costs such as labor shortages, weather, and production impacts are more significant.

  "Some of that comes from labor shortages... which is a potentially kind of ongoing cost impact." – Bobby Gibbs (01:50)

• Impact on Consumers:
  Charlotte Ambrzek, University of Minnesota, explains how low grocery store profit margins prevent stores from absorbing these costs, so consumers feel the brunt.

  • Inelastic Demand:
    For staples like meat, consumers will simply pay higher prices and compensate elsewhere in their budgets.

    "When prices go up, people will probably just be stuck paying higher prices and compensating for that in other ways." – Charlotte Ambrzek (02:14)

  • More Elastic Items:
    Fruit and vegetable purchases may decline as consumers substitute for cheaper alternatives or reduce meal preparation at home.

  • Shift to Eating Out:
    Prices for food away from home are rising less quickly, making fast-casual dining more attractive despite overall inflation.

    "People will eat more meals, especially at fast casual or fast service restaurants, which [could] save them the cost of the groceries plus the time it takes to figure out what to make and actually cook it." – Charlotte Ambrzek (02:33)

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2. Immigration Raid and International Fallout

Timestamp: 02:57–03:36

• More than 300 South Korean workers, previously detained in a major US immigration raid in Georgia, have returned to South Korea. Images of these workers in chains have fueled anti-US sentiment in South Korea, highlighting the international political complications of domestic enforcement actions.
• The construction site affected is on Hyundai’s campus, one of Georgia’s largest economic development projects.

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3. The Importance and Vulnerability of Economic Statistics

Timestamp: 04:48–08:17

BLS Under Political Pressure

• David Brancaccio covers the fallout from a Department of Labor internal probe into the BLS. Recent job numbers were revised down — this upset President Trump, who responded by firing the Bureau’s head and signaling intent to install an ally.

  "The president got told some bad numbers about the economy and then insist on firing the person who delivers those numbers." – Justin Wolfers (05:25)

• Justin Wolfers pushes back against criticisms that BLS data is too imperfect to be useful, explaining the complexity of measuring employment in a gigantic, dynamic economy.

  "It's such a difficult task to measure how many people are in work in an economy of our size... The question is, is there a way of doing it that's less imperfect? And so far, no one has come up with any approach that's less imperfect than what the Bureau of Labor Statistics is doing." – Justin Wolfers (05:30)

Comparisons to International Data Suppression

• Brancaccio mentions China’s suspension of youth unemployment statistics and Argentina’s manipulation of inflation data as cautionary tales.

  "In China, they stopped reporting youth unemployment when it started looking inconvenient..." – David Brancaccio (06:23)

  "This is something that happens not in serious first world economies... This comes from countries without the tradition of democracy, often driven by autocrats... Truth is what statistics are all about. I think we're served by having more truth. I can't imagine a way in which having less truth leads to better economic policy." – Justin Wolfers (06:32)

Real World Consequences for Data Manipulation

• Wolfers describes how undermining data credibility harms economic stability, citing the danger of increased borrowing costs for both the US government and ordinary Americans.

  "You can try and suppress statistics, but you can't suppress reality... If you’re not willing to tell me the truth about your finances, what is it I'm going to infer about you?" – Justin Wolfers (07:26)

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Notable Quotes

• "We all carry our own personal Consumer Price Index with us at all times."
  — David Brancaccio (01:04)
• "When prices go up, people will probably just be stuck paying higher prices and compensating for that in other ways."
  — Charlotte Ambrzek (02:14)
• "Truth is what statistics are all about. I think we're served by having more truth."
  — Justin Wolfers (06:32)
• "You can try and suppress statistics, but you can't suppress reality."
  — Justin Wolfers (07:26)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 01:02: Grocery price inflation and the Consumer Price Index explained
• 01:33–02:57: Analysis of grocery inflation causes and consumer response
• 02:57: Coverage of South Korean worker detentions and international reaction
• 04:48–08:17: Deep dive on BLS data revisions, Trump’s response, and the integrity of economic statistics
• 06:23–07:26: Historical comparisons to statistic suppression in China/Argentina and consequences for the US

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Tone and Style

The host maintains a calm, explanatory tone focused on relaying economic facts, but includes pointed analysis of political interference in data collection. Guest Justin Wolfers communicates with clarity and conviction, emphasizing the value and necessity of statistical truth for a healthy economy.

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Outro and Teaser

The episode ends with a brief promo for next week’s discussion—addressing President Trump’s intervention in private business and the concept of “state capitalism”—and a plug for related BBC programming.

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For listeners:
This episode delivers a concise but thorough overview of how statistics inform economic life—and what’s at stake when they are politicized or manipulated. Key insights include the sources and impacts of grocery inflation, the importance of data credibility for the financial system, and the dangerous precedent of government interference with statistical agencies.

Transcript

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[David Brancaccio]

Comes to grocery prices, what goes up hardly ever goes down I'm David Brancaccio in Los Angeles. First, let's acknowledge that we all carry our own personal Consumer Price Index with us at all times. We experience the prices we ourselves pay, but we can also learn from diving into the nationwide numbers. The Fresh Consumer Price Index came out yesterday. It was up more than expected one slice. The price of food to use at home was up six tenths of 1% from just July to August, Marketplace's Carla Javier reports.

[Carla Javier]

If you're wondering if tariffs are to blame, they're not the main driver of higher grocery prices. That's according to Bobby Gibbs, who's a retail consultant at Oliver Wyman. He says other input costs are the culprits, including, you know, weather and other production impacts.

[David Brancaccio]

Some of that comes from labor shortages and labor availability, which is a potentially kind of ongoing cost impact for them, gibbs says.

[Carla Javier]

Small profit margins for grocery stores mean they can't absorb higher costs, and that leaves consumers in a tough spot, says Charlotte Ambrzek in the department of Applied Economics at the University of Minnesota. She says demand for some staples like meat is inelastic, which means when prices.

[Charlotte Ambrzek]

Go up, people will probably just be stuck paying higher prices and compensating for that in other ways. In their budget, fruits and vegetables might.

[Carla Javier]

Be slightly more elastic, meaning consumers might buy less or swap them out for more affordable alternatives. That's if they bother making a meal at all.

[Charlotte Ambrzek]

When we see food away from home prices are not going up as fast as food at home prices, I think it's totally plausible that, you know, people will eat more meals, especially at fast casual or fast service restaurants, which amphorsec.

[Carla Javier]

Says could save them the cost of the groceries plus the time it takes to figure out what to make and actually cook it. I'm Carla Javier from Marketplace.

[David Brancaccio]

Video images of South Korean workers in US custody shackled with chains on wrists, ankles and waists are caused, causing a wave of anti US anger in South Korea. Close ally and strategic ally more than 300 workers detained in an immigration raid in Georgia are now back in Korea after a week in detention. They were among about 475 people taken into custody at a construction site on the Hyundai campus near Savannah, one of the top economic development projects in the state of Georgia.

[Justin Wolfers]

Foreign.

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[David Brancaccio]

This week we've been covering a Labor Department internal investigation into how the Bureau of Labor Statistics collects data on jobs, inflation and other aspects of the economy. The BLS has always made revisions to data as new information comes in over the months and each year. But revised findings that the economy created fewer jobs under under Presidents Biden and Trump has angered President Trump, who recently fired the head of the BLS and wants to put in an ally to run the statistical agency, which generates data closely watched by businesses, investors and the public. I spoke to Justin Wolfers, an economist and a public policy expert at the University of Michigan.

[Justin Wolfers]

The way this story started is a little bit too revealing. The president got told some bad numbers about the economy and then insist on firing the person who delivers those numbers. Look, when you face bad economic numbers, you've got two choices. Fix the economy or attack the numbers. And he chose the latter. The chief complaint from those who've backed up the president has been the Bureau's numbers are imperfect, and they absolutely are, because it's such a difficult task to measure how many people are in work. In an economy of our size and an economy in which 6 million people gain and lose jobs every month, that's not the right way to think about the value of statistics. The question is, is there a way of doing it that's less imperfect? And so far, no one has come up with any approach that's less imperfect than what the Bureau of Labor Statistics is doing.

[David Brancaccio]

Some have drawn comparisons with In China, they stopped reporting youth unemployment when it started looking inconvenient some years ago.

[Justin Wolfers]

Yep. And in Argentina, they falsified the inflation data. And this is something that happens not in serious first world economies that borrow trillions of dollars at very low rates in international capital markets. This comes from countries without the tradition of democracy, often driven by autocrats. Look, it's this simple truth is what statistics are all about. I think we're served by having more truth. I can't imagine a way in which having less truth leads to better economic policy. I can see how it leads to better political outcomes for one person.

[David Brancaccio]

I mean, there are real consequences. This may sound arcane to some people, but it could lead to higher costs of borrowing on your credit cards if our statistics is called into question.

[Justin Wolfers]

Absolutely. So that is the story of Argentina, which is you can try and suppress statistics, but you can't suppress reality. And there's one other thing, which is we do we borrow trillions of dollars in international markets. Now, of course, I'm willing to lend you money if I know that you're a really safe person to lend money to. But if you're not willing to tell me the truth about your finances, what is it I'm going to infer about you? I'm going to infer that the reality must be terrible. As a result, foreign lenders are going to lend money to the US as if we are a basket case economy, which would be a very bad outcome if the reality is that we're actually a good, strong, vibrant economy who are able to repay our debts on time and in full.

[David Brancaccio]

Justin Wolfers is a professor of economics and public policy at the Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan. Justin, thank you so much.

[Justin Wolfers]

Great pleasure, man.

[David Brancaccio]

Overall, President Trump's interventions into private businesses represents a stark break with free market orthodoxy often promoted by his Republican Party. Professor Wolfers and I dive into what some are calling state capitalism. Next week here on the Marketplace Morning Report. In Los Angeles. I'm David Brancaccio from apm, American Public Media.

[Carla Javier]

America is changing and so is the world.

[Justin Wolfers]

But what's happening in America isn't just the cause of global upheaval. It's also a symptom of disruption that's happening everywhere.

[Carla Javier]

I'm Asma Khalid in Washington, D.C. i'm.

[Justin Wolfers]

Tristan Redman in London. And this is the Global Story.

[Carla Javier]

Every weekday, we'll bring you a story from this intersection where the world and America meet.

[Justin Wolfers]

Listen on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts.