Turmoil in D.C. starts to hit student borrowers

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report: "Turmoil in D.C. Starts to Hit Student Borrowers"

Release Date: February 28, 2025

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Introduction

In this episode of Marketplace Morning Report, hosted by Sabri Ben Ashore, listeners are provided with a comprehensive overview of the economic landscape as of January 2025. The episode delves into key economic indicators, the current state of student loan repayments amid legal challenges, and escalating tensions in the US-China trade relationship, particularly concerning critical minerals essential for modern industries.

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1. Economic Overview: January 2025

Sabri Ben Ashore sets the stage by highlighting the plethora of economic data released for January 2025, painting a nuanced picture of the U.S. economy. This period precedes significant events such as mass layoffs, reductions in research spending, and cuts in agricultural purchases for food aid.

Key Points:

• Inflation: The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index showed a slight decrease to 2.5% year-over-year in January, down from 2.6% in December.
• Personal Income: There was an unusual spike in personal income, rising by 9.10% in January, primarily due to cost-of-living adjustments for Social Security recipients.
• Spending: Contrary to the income increase, consumer spending declined, influenced by an extreme cold snap and a noticeable drop in auto sales.
• Trade Deficit: January witnessed a record trade deficit, with imports surging by 11.9%, a significant jump from 4.6% in November and 4.0% in December.

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2. Inflation and Personal Income

Christopher Lowe, Chief Economist at FHN Financial, provides expert analysis on the inflation and personal income data.

• Inflation Trends:

  • Sabri Ben Ashore: “Am I wrong to say that inflation improved a little bit? We were in a little better place in January when it comes to inflation.”
  • Christopher Lowe [01:23]: “Yes, the year-on-year inflation rate, both headline and core, excluding food and energy, were just a little lower in January than they were in December. Inflation's running at about 2.5%, roughly where the Fed thought it would be at this point.”

• Personal Income Increase:

  • Sabri Ben Ashore [01:46]: “Personal income increased 9.10% in January. That seems large. Why would personal income have increased like that?”
  • Christopher Lowe [01:55]: “It is an unusually big monthly increase and it reflects the annual cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security recipients. Social Security payouts were up 2.8% in January. It's a nice income boost. That should translate into better spending in future months.”

Despite the income boost from Social Security, overall spending decreased, challenging the assumption that higher incomes directly lead to increased consumer spending.

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3. Decline in Consumer Spending and Trade Deficit

Sabri Ben Ashore explores the contradiction between rising personal income and declining consumer spending.

• Reasons for Decreased Spending:

  • Sabri Ben Ashore [02:18]: “But spending was down in January. Is that because we just spent everything for Christmas?”
  • Christopher Lowe [02:23]: “No, it's that unusual cold snap, that polar vortex. The biggest weakness was auto sales, but good spending in general was down. There was also maybe the beginning of the Doge effect on consumption. Spending by nonprofits fell by 8.8 billion in January.”

• Record Trade Deficit:

  • Sabri Ben Ashore [02:48]: “There was also in January a record trade deficit for that month. We imported more than we exported. Why might we have surged in our imports in January?”
  • Christopher Lowe [02:59]: “Well, it looks like companies trying to get in front of tariffs. Imports were up 11.9%. This is just goods that we're seeing in this report, but 11.9%. And that's on the heels of a 4.6% rise in November and 4% rise in December. So imports way up from where they were three months ago.”

The surge in imports is attributed to companies anticipating further tariff impositions, leading to increased purchasing before potential price hikes.

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4. Student Loan Repayment Challenges Amid Legal Turmoil

The episode shifts focus to the turbulence within the student loan repayment landscape caused by legal injunctions against repayment plan adjustments.

Sabri Ben Ashore reports on the Department of Education's decision to remove online applications for student loan consolidations and income-based repayment plans, citing compliance with an appeals court injunction challenging the Biden administration's SAVE plan.

• Impact on Borrowers:
  • Nova Safo [03:48]: “The Department of Education shut down its online application portal for those repayment offerings, but is still providing paper applications for download. At the same time, the Washington Post says the department has instructed loan servicers to stop processing income-based repayment and consolidation applications for at least three months. The department says it's complying with an injunction issued last week by the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals in St. Louis, halting a Biden-era repayment plan called SAVE, which dramatically reduced or ended repayments for certain borrowers. The appeals court said the Biden administration exceeded its legal authority in setting up that program. Now, those enrolled in SAVE may need to apply for other repayment options, but for now, they can't. These disruptions come after a pandemic-era repayments pause ended in October. Millions of borrowers have since fallen behind, according to VantageScore, which says they will likely see their credit scores impacted.”

The abrupt halt in processing repayment plan applications has left millions of student borrowers in uncertainty, potentially affecting their credit scores and financial stability.

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5. Escalating US-China Trade Tensions Over Critical Minerals

In a detailed segment, Sabri Ben Ashore discusses the intensifying trade conflict between the United States and China, focusing on critical minerals essential for industries like electric vehicle manufacturing.

Ernest Scheider, a Reuters reporter and author of War Below: Lithium, Copper, and the Global Battle to Power Our Lives, provides in-depth insights into the implications of China’s export strategies on U.S. industries.

• Current Trade Measures:

  • Sabri Ben Ashore [05:22]: “The US China Trade Relationship is getting more tense. Just yesterday, President Trump said he wanted a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods. That is on top of the other 10% tariff that went into effect a few weeks ago. Last week, the administration announced it would be further restricting investment into and from China. And China, for its part, has called for dialogue. But it has already cut off the export of some critical minerals to the US and it's considering bans on equipment for refining other critical minerals. An exclusive report from Reuters found some Chinese firms are already starting to cut off access. Ernest Scheider is a reporter at Reuters and he joins us now for more. Ernest, welcome.”

• Lithium Processing and Its Challenges:

  • Ernest Scheider [06:05]: “The main piece of equipment used to filter it is called a sorbent or an absorbent. And that's basically. It sort of acts like a giant magnet. And in a salty brine solution, it'll basically attract lithium and not other minerals that might be in that brine, such as calcium or magnesium. China has become the world's largest producer of those sorbents and has been using that control for its economic benefit.”

• Impact of Preemptive Export Cuts:

  • Sabri Ben Ashore [06:44]: “Now, China hasn't officially banned its companies from exporting that material to the U.S. but your reporting has found that Chinese companies aren't waiting around for that to happen. They see the writing on the wall and they've, you know, some of them have stopped exports to the US preemptively. How serious is that for US industries that need that material?”
  • Ernest Scheider [07:05]: “We do know that earlier this year, China basically threatened to withhold all kinds of lithium processing technologies and critical minerals process technologies to the west as part of this escalating trade spat. So the fact that one company is already preemptively doing it is a sign that private industry within China is beginning to react to whatever Beijing is doing. If Beijing ultimately approves this export ban, companies would need government licenses for overseas sales that are difficult to obtain. Now, there are some Western companies that are trying to catch up with these Chinese rivals and produce more of these sorbents, but the problem is that many of them have not found commercial success yet.”

• Symmetry in Trade Tactics:

  • Sabri Ben Ashore [07:43]: “There's a certain symmetry here, it seems, in what China and the US are doing. The US blocked the export to China of the equipment used to make semiconductors, for example. Now you have China blocking the export of the equipment to make or process lithium. Do you think this is coincidental?”
  • Ernest Scheider [08:00]: “It definitely is. Each country using the tools that it has in its toolkit. And so if you're able to basically say, okay, what do I have? What do I make that my peer or my rival needs, and can I start to slowly take away one bit at a time as part of this escalating trade tension, then, you know, I think we'll start to see things getting more and more intense. We've already seen China block exports of germanium and gallium, which are minor metals used to make semiconductors. Graphite, which is used to make an electric vehicle battery, and other pieces of equipment and critical minerals out there. So we've seen a slow ratcheting up in those export bans. And this sign from this Chinese Orban company indicates that it's only going to get more intense as things go on in 2025.”

Conclusion by Ernest Scheider: Ernest underscores that the US-China trade tensions are not coincidental but part of a strategic exchange where each nation leverages its industrial strengths to exert economic pressure. This tit-for-tat escalation is expected to intensify throughout 2025, significantly impacting global supply chains and technological advancements.

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Closing Remarks

Sabri Ben Ashore wraps up the episode by summarizing the profound economic challenges facing the United States, from internal economic shifts and student loan crises to international trade conflicts that could reshape global industry landscapes.

Listeners are encouraged to stay informed through Marketplace's offerings, including their newsletter for in-depth economic analysis.

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Notable Quotes:

• Christopher Lowe [01:23]: “Inflation's running at about 2.5%, roughly where the Fed thought it would be at this point.”
• Christoper Lowe [01:55]: “Social Security payouts were up 2.8% in January. It's a nice income boost. That should translate into better spending in future months.”
• Ernest Scheider [07:05]: “If Beijing ultimately approves this export ban, companies would need government licenses for overseas sales that are difficult to obtain.”
• Ernest Scheider [08:00]: “Each country using the tools that it has in its toolkit... we'll start to see things getting more and more intense.”

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This detailed summary encapsulates the critical discussions and insights presented in the "Marketplace Morning Report" episode titled "Turmoil in D.C. Starts to Hit Student Borrowers," providing listeners with a clear understanding of the complex economic and geopolitical issues at play without needing to listen to the original podcast.

Transcript

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[Sabri Ben Ashore]

One last glance at the economy of before from Marketplace, I'm Sabri Ben, ashore in for David Brancaccio. We got a whole lot of economic data this morning, and it is painting a picture of this economy for the month of January, meaning what the economy was like before the mass layoffs, the cuts in research spending, the cuts in purchases from farmers for food aid. The list goes on. So for starters, inflation. Inflation as measured by the PCE price index was 2.5% year over year in January. That is down from 2.6% measured the month before. Christopher Lowe is chief economist with FHN Financial in New York, and he's here to go through all this with us. Good morning. Good morning, Sabri, Am I wrong to say that inflation improved a little bit? We were in a little better place in January when it comes to inflation.

[Christopher Lowe]

Oh, that's exactly right. The year on year inflation rate, both headline and core, excluding food and energy, were just a little lower in January than they were in December. Inflation's running at about 2.5%. You know, go back a year. That's roughly where the Fed thought it would be at this point.

[Sabri Ben Ashore]

Personal income increased 9. 10 of a percent in January. That seems large. Why would personal income have increased like that?

[Christopher Lowe]

It is an unusually big monthly increase and it reflects the annual cost of living adjustment for Social Security recipients. Social Security payouts were up 2.8% in January. It's a nice income boost. That should translate into better spending in future months.

[Sabri Ben Ashore]

But spending was down in January. Is that because we just spent everything for Christmas?

[Christopher Lowe]

No, it's that unusual cold snap, that polar vortex. The biggest weakness was auto sales, but good spending in general was down. There was also maybe the beginning of the Doge effect on consumption. Spending by nonprofits fell by 8.8 billion in January.

[Sabri Ben Ashore]

There was also in January a record trade deficit for that month. We imported more than we exported. Why might we have surged in our imports in January?

[Christopher Lowe]

Well, it looks like companies trying to get in front of tariffs. Imports were up 11.9%. This is just goods that we're seeing in this report, but 11.9%. And that's on the heels of a 4.6% rise in November and 4% rise in December. So imports way up from where they were three months ago.

[Sabri Ben Ashore]

Christopher Lowe, chief economist at FHN Financial, thank you so much.

[Christopher Lowe]

Thank you, Sabri the Department of Education.

[Sabri Ben Ashore]

Removed online applications for consolidations and income based repayment plans. The studentaid.gov website says the removals are temporary to comply with an appeals court injunction, but it has left student borrowers in the lurch. Marketplace's NovaSafo has the details.

[Nova Safo]

The Department of Education shut down its online application portal for those repayment offerings, but is still providing paper applications for download. At the same time, the Washington Post says the department has instructed loan servicers to stop processing income based repayment and consolidation applications for at least three months. The department says it's complying with an injunction issued last week by the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals in St. Louis, halting a Biden era repayment plan called SAVE, which dramatically reduced or ended repayments for certain borrowers. The appeals court said the Biden administration exceeded its legal authority in setting up that program. Now, those enrolled in SAVE may need to apply for other repayment options, but for now, they can't. These disruptions come after a pandemic era repayments pause ended in October. Millions of borrowers have since fallen behind, according to VantageScore, which says they will likely see their credit scores impacted. I'm Novosafo for Marketplace.

[Marketplace Newsletter]

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[Sabri Ben Ashore]

The US China Trade Relationship is getting more tense. Just yesterday, President Trump said he wanted a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods. That is on top of the other 10% tariff that went into effect a few weeks ago. Last week, the administration announced it would be further restricting investment into and from China. And and China, for its part, has called for dialogue. But it has already cut off the export of some critical minerals to the US and it's considering bans on equipment for refining other critical minerals. An exclusive report from Reuters found some Chinese firms are already starting to cut off access. Ernest Scheider is a reporter at Reuters and he joins us now for more. Ernest, welcome.

[Ernest Scheider]

Hey, it's great to be with you.

[Sabri Ben Ashore]

Up until now, at least, the US has imported materials and equipment from China to process lithium. This is the metal used in electric car batteries, for example. What does that mean exactly to process lithium? Like, what are US Companies using this kind of equipment and materials for?

[Ernest Scheider]

The main piece of equipment used to filter it is called a sorbent or an absorbent. And that's basically. It sort of acts like a giant magnet. And in a salty brine solution, it'll basically attract lithium and not other minerals that might be in that brine, such as calcium or magnesium. China has become the world's largest producer of those sorbents and has been using that control for its economic benefit.

[Sabri Ben Ashore]

Now, China hasn't officially banned its companies from exporting that material to the U.S. but your reporting has found that Chinese companies aren't waiting around for that to happen. They see the writing on the wall and they've, you know, some of them have stopped exports to the US Preemptively. How serious is that for US Industries that need that material?

[Ernest Scheider]

We do know that earlier this year, China basically threatened to withhold all kinds of lithium processing technologies and critical minerals process technologies to the west as part of this escalating trade spat. So the fact that one company is already preemptively doing it is a sign that private industry within China is beginning to react to whatever Beijing is doing. If Beijing ultimately approves this export ban, companies would need government licenses for overseas sales that are difficult to obtain. Now, there are some Western companies that are trying to catch up with these Chinese rivals and produce more of these sorbents, but the problem is that many of them have not found commercial success yet.

[Sabri Ben Ashore]

There's a certain symmetry here, it seems, in what China and the US Are doing. The US Blocked the export to China of the equipment used to make semiconductors, for example. Now you have China blocking the export of the equipment to make or process lithium. Do you think this is coincidental?

[Ernest Scheider]

It definitely is. Each country using the tools that it has in its toolkit. And so if you're able to basically say, okay, what do I have? What do I make that my peer or my rival needs, and can I start to slowly take away one bit at a time as part of this escalating trade tension, then, then, you know, I think we'll start to see things getting more and more intense. We've already seen China block exports of germanium and gallium, which are minor metals used to make semiconductors. Graphite, which is used to make an electric vehicle battery, and other pieces of equipment. And critical minerals out there. So we've seen a slow ratcheting up in those export bans. And this sign from this Chinese Orban company indicates that it's only going to get more intense as things go on in 2025.

[Sabri Ben Ashore]

Ernest Scheider is a reporter with Reuters. He's also author of a book about critical minerals called the War Below Lithium, Copper, and the Global Battle to Power Our Lives. Ernest, thank you so much.

[Ernest Scheider]

Great to be with you.

[Sabri Ben Ashore]

Sabree In New York, I'm Sabri Benishore with the Marketplace Morning Report from APM American Public Media.