Summary5 min read

Marketplace Morning Report Podcast Summary

Episode: War in the Middle East, Oil, and Jobs
Date: April 13, 2026
Host: Sabri Ben-Ashour (Marketplace)
Notable Contributors: Julia Coronado, Nancy Marshall Genser, Mitchell Hartman, Tom Kloza, Jerry McGinn, Michael Gritton, Brian Bethune

Episode Overview

This brisk episode of Marketplace Morning Report focuses on the immediate and far-reaching economic consequences of escalating conflict in the Middle East, specifically the impact on oil supplies, banking sector performance, and repercussions for the U.S. job market. Through expert interviews and concise reporting, the show underscores the interconnectedness of global conflict, energy prices, and domestic economic indicators.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Escalation in the Middle East and Oil Market Shock

[00:01 - 01:55]

Blockade Threats:
The U.S. announces a planned blockade of Iranian ports, aiming to halt ships that paid Iran to access the Strait of Hormuz, starting imminently.
- Quote:
  - “The US Is threatening a blockade of Iranian ports and to stop any ship that has paid a toll to Iran… This blockade would start minutes from now at 10:00am Eastern.” – Sabri Ben-Ashour [00:07]
Iran’s Response:
Iran warns it may retaliate by targeting other Gulf ports and potentially closing the Bab El Mandeb Strait via proxies, jeopardizing Saudi Arabia’s alternative oil export route.
- Quote:
  - “Iran has threatened that no port in the Persian Gulf is safe if its ports aren't.” – Sabri Ben-Ashour [00:58]
Impact on Oil Supply:
Oil prices surge by around 7% as prospects for oil exports through both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab El Mandeb are threatened.
- Expert Insight:
  - “Now it's a broader blockade, and that means the oil supply is even more restricted than it was before.” – Julia Coronado, Macro Policy Perspectives [00:36]
  - “So even if all of this were to end tomorrow, we're already looking at a pretty extended disruption even in the best case scenario. And we are certainly not in the best case scenario.” – Julia Coronado [01:39]

2. Banking Sector: Strong Earnings Amid Uncertainty

[01:57 - 03:16]

Major Bank Earnings:
Goldman Sachs posts over $5 billion in net earnings for Q1 2026, kicking off bank earnings season.
Investor Concerns:
While banks are expected to show strong results, analysts are focused on potential impacts of Middle East turmoil.
- Key Questions:
  - Are M&A activities being delayed?
  - How might higher energy prices affect consumer lending and spending?
  - What’s the risk from AI-driven trading or flaws in bank systems?
- Quote:
  - “Analysts on the bank's earnings calls are likely to ask about how the war in the Middle east is affecting banks and their clients.” – Nancy Marshall Genser [02:22]
Upcoming Reports:
JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America are set to announce earnings this week.

3. U.S. Job Market: Oil, Defense, and Inflation Interplay

[04:25 - 07:14]

Contradictory Data:
While March’s jobs report showed 178,000 new jobs and falling unemployment, March inflation was unexpectedly high at 3.3% YoY, overshadowing wage gains.
Impact of Oil Prices on Jobs:
- Energy Sector:
  The oil price spike is positive for U.S. energy production, especially shale.
  - Quote:
    - “I think we'll see the labor force ramp up a little bit when you're drilling for shale oil in the Permian Basin and it's very labor intensive.” – Tom Kloza, Gulf Oil [05:10]
  - High profits mean more investment and rehiring in shale and Gulf oil projects.
- Defense Sector:
  President Trump's proposed FY 2027 budget increases defense spending by over 40%. Contractors may ramp up hiring to meet demand for munitions and new capabilities.
  - Quote:
    - “A lot of the funding is buying existing munitions, new munitions… So there's a lot of industrial based impact with this potential increase in spending.” – Jerry McGinn, CSIS [06:00]
Negative Ripple Effects:
- Logistics Strain:
  Rising fuel prices hurt sectors like logistics and transportation, as seen by UPS and related industries facing higher costs and slowed growth.
  - Quote:
    - “UPS is clearly being affected by the increase in fuel costs… All of those things are being affected negatively, freezing out any near term job growth.” – Michael Gritton, Kentuckiana Works [06:23]
- Hiring Outlook:
  Though jobs rebounded through mid-March, experts warn that April will show hiring slowdowns as businesses react to squeezed margins.
  - Quote:
    - “Businesses will throttle back on their hiring.” – Brian Bethune, Boston College [06:48]
  - Real wage gains are being eroded by inflation, curbing spending and growth.
  - “Wallets are being squeezed. That I think will lead to containment of spending.” – Brian Bethune [07:02]
  - The likely scenario: businesses pause hiring, but widespread layoffs aren’t yet expected.

Memorable Quotes & Timestamps

“If all of this were to end tomorrow, we're already looking at a pretty extended disruption even in the best case scenario.” – Julia Coronado [01:39]
“AI tools that can exploit flaws in bank software...” – Nancy Marshall Genser [02:36]
“They have breakeven numbers for these projects, probably a third of what the price of crude is these days, so they can't wait to ramp those up.” – Tom Kloza [05:30]
“With the surge in prices in March, inflation is now canceling out all the wage gains workers are getting.” – Brian Bethune [06:54]

Notable Segments & Timestamps

Middle East War & Blockades: [00:01 – 01:55]
Bank Earnings & Investor Concerns: [01:57 – 03:16]
US Job Market & Inflation Impact: [04:25 – 07:14]

Overall Tone & Takeaways

Marketplace's signature blend of clarity and urgency captures how global tensions ripple through the U.S. economy—from oil fields to boardrooms to everyday workers. The episode affirms that even sectors seeing a boost (energy, defense) feel overshadowed by the broader dangers of inflation and uncertainty. Listeners are left with a sense that while some industries are poised to “ramp up,” most are bracing for disruption and hunkering down.

For those who missed this episode, it succinctly connects global headlines to Main Street realities, making it a must-listen for anyone tracking the 2026 economic landscape.

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Transcript26 lines

[00:02]
A
No end in sight for the economic consequences of the war. From marketplace. I'm Sabree Ben, ashore in New York. The US Is threatening a blockade of Iranian ports and to stop any ship that has paid a toll to Iran, which was the main method of getting through the strait up till now. This blockade would start minutes from now at 10:00am Eastern. Iran has said it would respond if that blockade happens. Threatening ports engulf states and the flow of oil. Oil Oil prices are up about 7%. Julia Coronado is president of Macro Policy Perspectives and a professor at UT Austin.
[00:36]
B
The critical issue is that, yes, now it's a broader blockade, and that means the oil supply is even more restricted than it was before. So not only is the Strait of Hormuz closed, but Iran has no other if it's effective, no other option to get oil out. So even less oil for the global market.
[00:58]
A
Meanwhile, Iran has threatened that no port in the Persian Gulf is safe if its ports aren't. And it could use its proxies in Yemen to close the Bab El Mandeb Strait over on the other side of the Gulf, which is Saudi Arabia's alternate route for exporting some oil. None of this looks good for oil prices.
[01:17]
B
It does not. And the longer it goes on, the more production is damaged and shut down because there's no place to store the oil. And that's not a simple task. So shutting down and reopening drilling operations is an extensive effort that takes time and weeks and many resources. So even if all of this were to end tomorrow, we're already looking at a pretty extended disruption even in the best case scenario. And we are certainly not in the best case scenario.
[01:51]
A
Julie Coronado, founder and president of Macro Policy Perspectives, thank you, as always.
[01:56]
B
My pleasure.
[01:58]
A
Goldman Sachs just announced net earnings of more than $5 billion for the first quarter this year. It is the first in a parade of banks releasing results this week. Investors are paying close attention because the status of banks can tell us a lot about the health of the overall economy. Marketplaces. Nancy Marshall Genser has more on that.
[02:18]
C
Banks are expected to report strong earnings growth this week, but investors have their eye on what's next. Analysts on the bank's earnings calls are likely to ask about how the war in the Middle east is affecting banks and their clients. For example, are mergers being delayed because of all the uncertainty? And there will likely be questions about private credit. Banks lend money to private credit funds who then make loans to private businesses. Traders are also wondering about AI tools that can exploit flaws in bank software and bank earnings can tell us if consumers are borrowing more or spending less because of higher energy prices. JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Bank of America are also scheduled to report profits this week. I'm Nancy Marshall Genser for Marketplace.
[03:16]
D
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[03:55]
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[04:25]
A
economy giveth and the economy taketh away. About a week ago we got the March jobs report and it was actually pretty good 178,000 new jobs. Unemployment rate came down. But then Friday we got the inflation numbers for March and those were terrible. Inflation spiked prices up 3.3% from a year ago. So what does that mean for jobs? Marketplace's Mitchell Hartman reports.
[04:50]
F
The war is impacting sectors of the economy differently. The sharp rise in oil and gas prices has been a boon for the energy sector. The US now pumps enough of the stuff to export a lot, and with prices so high, there's an incentive to increase production, says Tom Klose, chief energy advisor at Gulf Oil.
[05:11]
G
I think we'll see the labor force ramp up a little bit when you're drilling for shale oil in the Permian Basin and it's very labor intensive.
[05:20]
F
The workforce has actually been declining for more than a decade. But Close says there's more promise now with projects ready to go in the Permian Basin and Gulf of Mexico.
[05:30]
G
They have breakeven numbers for these projects, probably a third of what the price of crude is these days, so they can't wait to ramp those up.
[05:39]
F
Defense industries also stand to benefit. President Trump's fiscal year 2027 budget, if it passes, includes a more than 40% increase in defense spend. Jerry McGinn at the center for Strategic and International Studies expects increased hiring by defense contractors, which already employ hundreds of thousands of workers.
[06:00]
H
A lot of the funding is buying existing munitions, new munitions, new capabilities as well. So there's a lot of industrial based impact with this potential increase in spending.
[06:10]
F
Overall, though, the impacts of the war are mostly negative for economic growth and employment. Michael Gritton is seeing this in Louisville, where he runs the regional workforce development agency Kentuckiana Works.
[06:23]
I
UPS is clearly being affected by the increase in fuel costs. We have lots of trucking logistics and barge traffic and all that kind of stuff. All of those things are being affected
[06:34]
F
negatively, freezing out any near term job growth. Now keep in mind through mid March we saw a strong rebound in job growth according to the bls. But says Boston College economist Brian Bethune,
[06:49]
I
we'll see a different picture in April. Businesses will throttle back on their hiring.
[06:55]
F
Bethune points out that with the surge in prices in March, inflation is now canceling out all the wage gains workers are getting.
[07:03]
I
Wallets are being squeezed. That I think will lead to containment of spending. And I think businesses will go back to how they were successful in 2025.
[07:14]
F
Hunkering down. Maybe not laying workers off, but not hiring either. I'm Mitchell Hartman for Marketplace, and in
[07:23]
A
New York, I'm Sabri Benishore with the Marketplace morning Report from 8pm American Public Media.
[07:33]
J
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