What happens when the government finally does the numbers

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report

Episode: What happens when the government finally does the numbers
Date: November 17, 2025
Host: Sabri Benishore (in for David Brancaccio)
Length: ~8 minutes (excluding ads and promos)

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Overview

This episode of the Marketplace Morning Report examines two timely economic issues: the sudden restart of crucial U.S. economic data releases after a 43-day government shutdown, and China’s overcapacity in the electric vehicle (EV) industry and its global ripple effects. Through brief interviews with economists and policy experts, listeners get insights on how missing economic indicators affect understanding of tariffs and inflation, and the challenges—and opportunities—posed by China’s state-supported expansion of EV manufacturing.

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1. Key Discussion: The Government’s Economic Data Blackout and Its Aftermath

[00:55–03:04]

Government Data Shutdown and Its Impact

• Background:
  Due to a 43-day government shutdown, crucial U.S. economic reports—such as GDP, employment, import/export data—were delayed or not collected.
  • “For a month and a half, anyone trying to understand the US economy has been flying a little blind…tons of information…were not released or even collected.”
    — Sabri Benishore [00:55]

The Importance of Import Price Data

• Economic and Academic Perspective:

  • Tyler Shipper (University of St. Thomas) explains that import prices are now a focal point, especially amid ongoing tariff policies.
    • “Import prices have been one of the reports that people have been going to. And likewise that’s one of the probably top two or three reports that I am waiting to see for the backlog.”
      — Tyler Shipper [01:52]

• Tariffs and Cost Absorption:

  • Import price data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) measures prices before tariffs, clarifying how much of the tariff cost is borne by foreign exporters versus U.S. consumers.
    • “If import prices go up…that seems to suggest that foreign exporters are not actually doing much cost sharing, that they are passing most of the prices of tariffs on to the US.”
      — Tyler Shipper [02:13]

• Inflation Concerns:

  • Ryan Monarch (Syracuse University) notes:
    • “10% of all their expenditures are on imported products. And so sometimes import prices will be something that is moving overall inflation numbers around.”
      — Ryan Monarch [02:28]

• Sector-Specific Impact:

  • Jason Miller (Michigan State University) highlights uncertainty in sectors hit by new tariffs—like metal products—because missing data obscures whether exporters have adjusted prices.
    • “We don’t have a sense yet of how that has been met by exporters…potentially lowering prices or not to help offset those things.”
      — Jason Miller [02:52]
  • Assurance that the BLS can catch up, as companies have maintained records.
    • “BLS will be able to catch up on the import price data it’s missed because companies keep records…”
      — Carla Javier [03:04]

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2. Global Focus: China’s Electric Vehicle Glut and Worldwide Implications

[04:59–08:27]

The Scale and Causes of China's EV Oversupply

• China’s Investments:
  The Chinese government has supported its EV industry since 2009, investing over $200 billion and creating the world’s largest EV market.

  • “China continues to support its EV industry…has poured more than $200 billion into the sector since 2009…”
    — Sabri Benishore [04:59]

• Industry Glut:

  • Hilaria Mazzocco (Center for Strategic and International Studies) describes the oversupply and intense competition.
    • “It’s become much larger than anybody expected…There’s been a price war that’s gone on now for years and some companies aren’t even making profits.”
      — Hilaria Mazzocco [05:54]

• Reasons for Rapid Ascendancy:

  • Government support, innovative battery companies like BYD, maturation of technology, and limited early competition drove growth.
    • “A combination of different factors…comprehensive support…really entrepreneurial companies…”
      — Hilaria Mazzocco [06:35]

Lessons for the U.S. & Global Spillover

• Industrial Policy Takeaways:

  • The Chinese experience suggests the value of building a comprehensive manufacturing and education ecosystem.
    • “It’s important to have an ecosystem…having more training, educational, investment. All those things…”
      — Hilaria Mazzocco [07:21]

• Implications for U.S. Consumers & Global Trade:

  • Critical minerals, battery machinery, and intellectual property are still largely controlled by China, placing the U.S. and others at a disadvantage.
    • “It’s not necessarily just the car, but it’s also…what about the machinery…what about the IP…how much of that can be Chinese? The rest of the world…the answer is a lot more of it can be Chinese than the US…”
      — Hilaria Mazzocco [07:51]

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3. Memorable Quotes & Moments

On Economic Blindness During the Shutdown

• “Anyone trying to understand the US economy has been flying a little blind.”
  — Sabri Benishore [00:55]

On Tariff Pass-Through

• “Foreign exporters are not actually doing much cost sharing, that they are passing most of the prices of tariffs on to the US.”
  — Tyler Shipper [02:13]

On the Unseen Ripple Effects

• "We don’t have a sense yet of how that has been met by exporters…to help offset those things."
  — Jason Miller [02:52]

On China’s Industrial Policy

• “It’s important to have an ecosystem…All those things can all be really helpful.”
  — Hilaria Mazzocco [07:21]

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4. Detailed Timestamps of Notable Segments

• 00:55–03:04: Data blackout and its significance for understanding tariffs and inflation
• 04:59–08:27: China’s EV glut, causes, and impacts for the US and global markets

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Conclusion

This episode succinctly highlights both the fragility of economic intelligence in the face of government dysfunction and the global interconnectedness of industrial policy, using the contemporary cases of U.S. trade data and China’s electric vehicle market. It provides listeners with a window into the complexities of understanding economic health during a data blackout and offers perspective on how China’s aggressive industrial strategies may shape the electric vehicle market worldwide.

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For more details on any segment, listen between 00:55 and 08:27.

Transcript

[Marketplace Sponsor Announcer]

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[Sabri Benishore]

After the day to night comes the day to dawn From Marketplace, I'm Sabri Benishore in for David Brancaccio. For a month and a half, anyone trying to understand the US economy has been flying a little blind. The 43 day government shutdown caused a data shutdown. Tons of information about gdp, employment, lots of other items about nooks and crannies of the US economy were not released or even collected. Sometimes that is starting to turn around though. As the government reopens tomorrow, we will allegedly get data about the country's imports and exports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Still possible it might get delayed, but when we finally do get those numbers, they will shed some light on the impacts of some of the President's tariffs marketplaces. Carla Javier has that until recently this.

[Carla Javier]

Isn'T data Tyler Shipper at The University of St. Thomas paid all that much attention to. But lately with tariffs in the news.

[Tyler Shipper]

Import prices have been one of the reports that people have been going to. And likewise that's one of the probably top two or three reports that I am waiting to see for the backlog.

[Carla Javier]

The BLS data measures import prices before tariffs are applied. That can point to who might be absorbing the cost of the import taxes if import prices go up, Shipper says.

[Tyler Shipper]

That seems to suggest that foreign exporters are not actually doing much cost sharing, that they are passing most of the prices of tariffs on to the US.

[Carla Javier]

Import prices also affect consumers, says Ryan Monarch at Syracuse University.

[Marketplace Sponsor Announcer]

10% of all their expenditures are on imported products. And so sometimes import prices will be something that is moving overall inflation numbers around.

[Carla Javier]

Missing the September import data during the shutdown has made it harder to understand what's going on, says Jason Miller at Michigan State University. He gives the example of metal products, which were hit with steep tariff increases in August.

[Jason Miller]

We don't have a sense yet of how that has been met by exporters, you know, to the US in terms of potentially lowering prices or not to help offset those things, miller says.

[Carla Javier]

BLS will be able to catch up on the import price data. It's missed because companies keep records of the prices they paid. I'm Carla Javier for Marketplace.

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[Sabri Benishore]

US subsidies for electric vehicles are on their way out on the other side of the world, China continues to support its EV industry and has been for a while. It's poured more than $200 billion into the sector since 2009 and it's the biggest market in the world for EVs. But having ascended so high, the air is getting a little thin. The country now finds itself with an oversupply of EVs and EV makers. Competition is cutthroat, profit margins are thin or non existent, and as the Chinese EV supply spills over into the rest of the world, some auto industries see it as a threat. Some consumers see it as an Opportunity. Joining us to talk it over is Hilaria Mazzocco, Senior Fellow at the center for Strategic and International Studies. Thanks for joining us.

[Hilaria Mazzocco]

Thank you for having me.

[Sabri Benishore]

So China has a tsunami size supply of electric vehicles. How big of a glut are we talking about?

[Hilaria Mazzocco]

It's kind of hard to know. You know, if you look at the Chinese market, it's become much larger than anybody expected, right? And that is where today most electric vehicles are being sold. However, we are seeing an increasing amount of exports from China and some of that is probably due to this glut that we're talking about, right? Over competition in China, diminishing margins. There's been a price war that's gone on now for years and some companies aren't even making profits.

[Sabri Benishore]

How did China get to this point?

[Superhuman Sponsor Announcer]

Why?

[Sabri Benishore]

Why is it swimming in EVs? Why did its industry ascend so rapidly?

[Hilaria Mazzocco]

I think it's really a combination of different factors. Right. So you had the Chinese government stepping in and providing pretty comprehensive support both for suppliers, but also for consumers. You had really entrepreneurial companies, companies like BYD that were battery makers before they became car makers. And then you had really like the perfect timing. The technology was mature enough, but at the same time there wasn't that much competition. And I think ultimately, you know, that enabled a lot of competition within China because a lot of companies DEC decided to sort of step in to produce more EVs, and it turns out consumers really like them.

[Sabri Benishore]

China sounds like it's kind of supporting a whole industry and eventually letting it consolidate. Is that something the US should be learning from?

[Hilaria Mazzocco]

I think what China's experience with industrial policy does teach the US is that it's important to have an ecosystem having a broader manufacturing innovation ecosystem, having more training, educational, investment. All those things can all be really.

[Sabri Benishore]

Helpful by shutting Chinese EVs out. Even if they do have some, you know, subsidization behind them, is that a loss for U.S. consumers?

[Marketplace Sponsor Announcer]

Right.

[Hilaria Mazzocco]

And I think, you know, actually even moving beyond that, you know, a lot of the components are also made by China. It's not necessarily just the car, but it's also, you know, what about the machinery that makes the battery, or what about the IP to extract the critical minerals? How much of that can be Chinese? I think the rest of the world, the answer is a lot more of it can be Chinese than the United States, which is putting the US in sort of a difficult or different position compared to other countries.

[Sabri Benishore]

Hilaria Mazzocco is a senior fellow with the center for Strategic and International Studies. Thank you so much.

[Hilaria Mazzocco]

No problem. Thank you.

[Sabri Benishore]

In New York, I'm Sabri Ben, ashore with the Marketplace morning Report from 8pm American Public Media.

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