What to make of last week’s jobs report revisions

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report: "What to Make of Last Week’s Jobs Report Revisions"

Release Date: February 10, 2025
Host: David Brancaccio
Podcast: Marketplace Morning Report

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Overview

In this episode of the Marketplace Morning Report, host David Brancaccio delves into the recent revisions of the U.S. jobs report, uncovering the implications of adding 100,000 more jobs than initially reported. The discussion navigates through the economic significance of these revisions, the factors influencing the labor market, and touches upon the intersection of government policy and employment data. Additionally, the episode features an insightful segment on an unconventional employment sector: the military's role as the largest employer of musicians in the United States.

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Revisions to the Jobs Report

Initial Findings: David Brancaccio opens the discussion by highlighting the latest jobs numbers released on Friday. He notes that:

"The latest numbers on Friday showed job creation was weaker than expected in January. That's from counting payrolls, but the survey of households finds the unemployment rate falling slightly."
[00:59]

Revisions Revealed: Kaylee Wells elaborates on the significance of the revisions:

"Revisions tend to be more common when there are shocks or kind of climate disruptions that impact the data collection."
[01:32]

Economist Corey Staley from Indeed.com provides additional context, explaining that the substantial revision isn't merely an anomaly but a reflection of underlying factors.

"Hurricane Milton devastated the Gulf coast in October of last year and as a result, the jobs numbers were hit there."
[01:39]

This natural disaster disrupted both employment and data gathering processes, leading to the initial underreporting of job additions.

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Economic Insights and Labor Market Analysis

Positive Revisions Amidst Slowing Trends: While the addition of 100,000 jobs appears as positive news, Pavlina Chernova, President of the Levy Economics Institute at Bard College, offers a cautious perspective:

"We knew that the labor market was slowing down and so a couple of months of positive news doesn't seem to show a turnaround in trend."
[02:14]

She emphasizes that long-term indicators, such as the stagnant labor force participation rate in 2024 and the increase in prolonged unemployment, suggest that the labor market isn't accelerating despite the recent job gains.

Administrative Policy and Trade Implications: Brancaccio shifts the conversation to the administration's intention to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum by another 25%. This move primarily affects major exporters like Canada, Mexico, and Brazil.

"The chief executive of the Canadian province of Quebec, a major aluminum exporter, asked if the US preferred instead to get its steel from China."
[02:40]

This tariff hike is part of a broader strategy to manage trade deficits, though it raises questions about cost implications and international trade relations.

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Unconventional Employment: Military as Largest Employer of Musicians

Breaking from typical economic discussions, the episode features Staff Sergeant Justice MacKenzie, a music arranger for the United States Air Force Bands, shedding light on the unique role of the military in employing musicians.

Career Path and Personal Journey: MacKenzie shares his unconventional path to the military, highlighting his passion for the tuba and his desire for stability:

"I thought to myself, well, if it's not here, probably no one else is picking it. And that would make me special."
[05:05]

Cultural Diplomacy Through Music: One of MacKenzie's memorable experiences involved performing for Afghan refugees and American troops, which underscored the power of music in bridging cultural divides:

"We bridged this huge cultural gap and we're making connections with people who are about to be assimilated into American culture."
[07:54]

He elaborates on his role as a music arranger, balancing technical expertise with creative vision to preserve the essence of original compositions while expanding them for varied performances.

Soft Power and Diplomacy: MacKenzie underscores the strategic importance of the Air Force Bands as tools of soft power:

"The Air Force band have been a really important tool of soft power, of diplomacy. What we're representing is American airmen and their professionalism."
[07:54]

By engaging audiences globally through music, the military fosters goodwill and showcases the professionalism of its personnel without the overt display of military hardware.

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Conclusion

David Brancaccio wraps up the episode by connecting the threads of economic data revisions with broader themes of employment trends and the multifaceted roles within the labor market. The episode offers listeners a nuanced understanding of how external factors like natural disasters can influence economic reports and emphasizes the importance of looking beyond surface numbers to grasp the underlying trends shaping the U.S. economy.

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Notable Quotes

• David Brancaccio:
  "The latest numbers on Friday showed job creation was weaker than expected in January."
  [00:59]

• Kaylee Wells:
  "Revisions tend to be more common when there are shocks or kind of climate disruptions that impact the data collection."
  [01:32]

• Pavlina Chernova:
  "We knew that the labor market was slowing down and so a couple of months of positive news doesn't seem to show a turnaround in trend."
  [02:14]

• Staff Sergeant Justice MacKenzie:
  "We bridged this huge cultural gap and we're making connections with people who are about to be assimilated into American culture."
  [07:54]

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This detailed exploration provides listeners with a comprehensive overview of the episode's key discussions, offering valuable insights into the complexities of the labor market and the unique employment opportunities within the military.

Transcript

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[David Brancaccio]

For yourself A standard jobs report and an odd one. I'm David Brancaccio. The latest numbers on Friday showed job creation was weaker than expected in January. That's from counting payrolls, but the survey of households finds the unemployment rate falling slightly. And there were revisions showing 100,000 more people got jobs in the last two months of last year than first thought Marketplaces.

[Kaylee Wells]

Kaylee Wells explains revisions are normal, but economist Corey Staley with Indeed.com says there's another reason this one was so big.

[David Brancaccio]

Revisions tend to be more common when there are shocks or kind of climate disruptions that impact the data collection.

[Kaylee Wells]

Hurricane Milton devastated the Gulf coast in October of last year and as a.

[David Brancaccio]

Result, you know, the jobs numbers were hit there. But also I would imagine some of the reporting in the following months was also impacted as well.

[Kaylee Wells]

So it sounds like good news that there are 100,000 more jobs added than previously thought.

[Pavlina Chernova]

But I'm not seeing at the macro level things to suggest that the labor market is accelerating.

[Kaylee Wells]

Pavlina Chernova isn't ready to call it a turnaround. She's president of the Levy Economics Institute at Bard College.

[Pavlina Chernova]

We knew that the labor market was slowing down and so a couple of months of positive news doesn't seem to show a turnaround in trend.

[Kaylee Wells]

Chernova says long term trends still tell the same story. The percentage of people in the labor force has been stagnant in 2024, and in the past two years the number of people staying unemployed for at least six months has gone up. I'm Kaylee Wells for Marketplace, Our team.

[David Brancaccio]

Is watching for confirmation. The administration will raise tariffs on steel and aluminum by another 25%. Canada, Mexico and Brazil sell the most of those metals to the U.S. the chief executive of the Canadian province of Quebec, a major aluminum exporter, asked if the US Preferred instead to get its steel from China. And as a cost cutting measure President Trump doesn't want to make cents. Let me clarify. He doesn't want to make C E N t s. The president wants to stop making pennies with the copper. One cent costs about 2 cents. The Mint reports it lost $85 million last year on pennies. The idea would be for cash purchases you'd round up or down to the nearest nickel. Thing is with a nickel the the 5 cents costs the mint 14 cents. To make.

[Pavlina Chernova]

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[David Brancaccio]

Led the program with the State of Jobs. Now a jobs report of a different kind from our unusual Jobs series entitled what's that Like? The largest single employer of musicians in this country is the military.

[Staff Sergeant Justice MacKenzie]

I'm Staff Sergeant Justice MacKenzie and I'm one of six music arrangers for the United States Air Force Bands. I started my career as a performer. My primary instrument is tuba. I've always been something of a contrarian and when I was deciding which instrument to play, this was fourth grade for me. No one else had picked the tuba. In fact, it wasn't even present at the, we call it, instrument petting zoo, where you get to try out all the different instruments. And they told me that there's actually one other instrument that isn't here. It's called the tuba. And I thought to myself, well, if it's not here, probably no one else is picking it. And that would make me special. So I got to my start in fourth grade. I spent several years as a touring musician, but I was really looking for more stability in terms of lifestyle and in paycheck. I saw the Air Force bands had a vacancy and they were hosting an audition to fill it. And that seemed like the perfect opportunity to have a more stable career. After auditioning, I realized the gig was actually so much more than just stability. It's actually the perfect way to serve my country with my greatest talent and continue to pursue my passion for music. This is one of my favorite memories of my career so far. I had the opportunity to play keyboards in our rock band, and following the withdrawal from Afghanistan, a lot of Afghan refugees wound up in a processing camp at Holloman Air Force Base in New Mexico. Our rock band was sent out there to perform for them and also for all of the American troops who had been deployed to Holloman to take care of them. It was just really funny performing for the refugees because all of our go to music, like the stuff that really hits, you know, we had Van Halen and Stevie Wonder, Tina Turner, Whitney Houston, and none of it landed with them. So, you know, here's me playing under a tent in 30 degree weather, trying to get this audience to clap along to living on a prayer or something. And they were like, they're just not having it. But after our set, one of the Afghans who happened to be a musician, came up to the stage with like a guitar, and all of a sudden it was like Woodstock. And we did our best to kind of learn their songs by ear. And all of a sudden we've bridged this huge cultural gap and we're making connections with people who are about to be assimilated into American culture. So I to apply for the position of a music arranger. My job here involves all kinds of musical decisions as I restructure and expand original compositions while still trying to preserve its essence. In that sense, this is both a technical and creative role. It requires a really strong foundation in music theory and orchestration and the ability to imagine how a piece is going to sound before it's performed. We perform music, and therefore I arrange music as broad as the American culture itself.

[David Brancaccio]

Next one's probably like the most current one we do.

[Staff Sergeant Justice MacKenzie]

We hope you like it. Our rock band just got back from a long tour overseas, and I know right now they're pretty tired of performing Espresso, but it's one of the most popular songs, so it's on our set list. In an ever more connected world, every country matters, and all of our partners matter. And the Air Force band have been a really important tool of soft power, of diplomacy. What we're representing is American airmen and their professionalism. And we can't put an F16 on every street corner and show the American public what amazing pilots we have and what amazing maintainers we have and what amazing ammo troops we have. But we can host a band concert in a medium that they understand and say, if you think what you're hearing is great, you can rest assured knowing there are hundreds of thousands of American airmen who are doing their job with the same level of professional.

[David Brancaccio]

Jobs. Unusual. If you have one of those. Tell us about it. Morning Reportplace.org I'm David Brancaccio from APM, American Public Media. Hi, it's David. We have an exciting offer for you. Now through Valentine's Day, you can show off your love of Marketplace by grabbing an Investor T shirt when you donate $5 a month, invest in the nonprofit journalism you love, and get a shirt to show off your support. Give [e-mail] donate.