What Trump's tariffs are doing to global trade

Summary

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Marketplace Morning Report – Episode Summary

Episode: What Trump's tariffs are doing to global trade
Date: October 8, 2025
Host: Sabri Benishore (in for David Brancaccio)
Duration: ~10 minutes

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Overview

This episode centers on the evolving impact of the Trump administration’s sweeping tariffs on global trade, the ripple effects for markets and supply chains, and related shifts in economic behaviors worldwide. It also covers recent data on job scams and the global landscape for "golden visa" residency programs.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Global Trade Slowdown Under Trump Tariffs

• [01:09] Sabri Benishore introduces the main story: the World Trade Organization (WTO) predicts a sharp slowdown in global trade growth, citing recent U.S. tariffs.

• [01:29 – 02:29] Henry Epp (Marketplace reporter) breaks down the WTO’s revised forecast and the key reasons behind it.

  Key Points:

  • WTO’s Revision: The WTO revised its forecast for 2026 global trade growth from nearly 2% to just 0.5%.
  • Tariff Effects: Trump’s August tariffs will start to take effect next year as stockpiled goods dwindle.
  • Stockpiling: Many companies prepared for tariffs by building up stockpiles in early 2025, helping to keep trade numbers higher in the short term.
  • Other Stabilizing Factors: Improved global inflation and stronger trade among emerging economies (Asia, Africa, Latin America) have also helped buffer the shock.
  • Surge in AI-Related Trade: Demand for semiconductors, servers, and telecom equipment (largely driven by AI advances) has surged 20% year-on-year. This sector may continue to buoy trade despite broader downturns.

  Notable Quote [01:29]:
  “Just two months ago, the WTO predicted global trade would grow by nearly 2% next year. Now it's revised that forecast down to just half a percent.”
  — Henry Epp

2. Job Scam Epidemic

• [02:29] Sabri Benishore highlights the growing problem of job scams.

• [03:09] Job scams nearly tripled from 2020 to 2024, with over $500 million in reported losses. Scammers operate both via text and on genuine job boards.

  Expert Advice:

  • Guest: Mark Anthony Dyson (author, Job Scam Report newsletter)
  • Red Flags:
    • Unsolicited messages with vague job descriptions but promises of high pay and flexibility
    • Communication shifting to personal emails or suspicious/fake URLs
    • Main targets: personal data, not just money

  Notable Quote [03:09]:
  “The biggest red flag would be... communication out of the blue saying you're great about the job, not knowing why you're great about the job.”
  — Mark Anthony Dyson

  Dyson emphasizes that the “hopes get up,” but scammers ultimately seek personal information, which can be reused for future frauds.

3. Federal Worker Pay in Government Shutdowns

• [04:11] Brief mention: The Trump administration is contesting whether furloughed federal workers are guaranteed back pay during government shutdowns, escalating tensions with Democrats.

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Global Markets Update

4. U.S. 'Gold Card' Visa and Golden Visas Abroad

• [06:16] Sabri Benishore introduces the U.S. Gold Card Visa: $5 million for permanent residency and a path to citizenship, joining a wider global trend.

• [06:33 – 09:00] The BBC’s Josh Martin compares U.S. policy with Portugal and New Zealand’s “golden visas”.

  Portugal:

  • Launched in 2012 to attract property investment
  • Example: Lily Chan (Hong Kong) used the program for retirement planning and EU access, needing to spend minimal time in Portugal
  • Though it channeled €7.5B (~$8.7B) into the economy, Portugal’s program ended partly due to overheated urban housing markets

  Global Market:

  • Despite EU restrictions, the list of countries offering golden visas is expanding.

  New Zealand:

  • Attracts wealthy Americans, like tech investor Mark Bergman, aiming to invest and create business opportunities

  Notable Quote [06:45]:
  “2017 I was thinking about retirement and try to diversify my money. It's an EU passport, so I will be free to go to different countries. I don't have to live in Portugal...”
  — Lily Chan

  Notable Quote [08:44]:
  “I view it more as opportunity. I'm investing in New Zealand and I'm expecting to see significant economic return. It's sort of up to me.”
  — Mark Bergman

  Big Picture:

  • Golden visas offer wealthier individuals a way to expand mobility and investment across borders, though only a small minority benefit.
  • The policy trend reflects global competition for high-net-worth residents and paired investments.

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Memorable Moments & Quotes

• [01:29] “Just two months ago, the WTO predicted global trade would grow by nearly 2% next year. Now it's revised that forecast down to just half a percent.” — Henry Epp
• [03:09] “The biggest red flag would be... communication out of the blue saying you're great about the job, not knowing why you're great about the job.” — Mark Anthony Dyson
• [06:45] “It's an EU passport, so I will be free to go to different countries. I don't have to live in Portugal there, and even I get a passport and I only need to spend seven days out of a year there.” — Lily Chan
• [08:44] “I'm investing in New Zealand and I'm expecting to see significant economic return. It's sort of up to me.” — Mark Bergman

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 01:09 – Introduction to global trade/tariffs story
• 01:29–02:29 – WTO forecast and U.S. tariffs breakdown
• 02:29–04:11 – Job scams: trends, scams, and safety advice
• 06:16–09:00 – 'Gold Card' visa and global golden visa landscape

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Tone & Style

The tone is brisk, informative, and conversational, focused on delivering key economic news with context and real-world voices, fitting listeners who want to catch up quickly on critical developments.

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For more details on any story, visit marketplace.org.

Transcript

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[Sabri Benishore]

Gumming up the Gears of Global Trade From Marketplace, I'm Sabri Benishore in for David Brancaccio. Global trade growth will slow down next year as the impact of the Trump administration sweeping tariffs sinks in. That is the prediction of the World Trade Organization in a new report, Marketplaces. Henry Epp has more.

[Henry Epp]

Just two months ago, the WTO predicted global trade would grow by nearly 2% next year. Now it's revised that forecast down to just half a percent. The organization expects that the Trump administration's widespread import taxes, implemented in August, will really start to bite in 2026 as companies run through their stockpiles of goods built up this year. That stockpiling most in the first half of 2025 is part of the reason why the WTO says global trade has actually held up better than it expected so far. A better inflation picture across the globe and increased trade between so called emerging economies in Asia, Africa and Latin America helped too. Global trade has also been propped up by a surge in AI related purchases, semiconductors, servers and telecom equipment. Trade of those products has grown 20% compared to last year, and AI could continue to be a tailwind next year even as trade of other goods and services slows. I'm Henry App for Marketplace.

[Sabri Benishore]

Maybe you've gotten a scammy text or two or ten offering an amazing job opportunity, work from home. Great Pay flexible hours While the number of scams involving job postings and offers nearly tripled between 2020 and 2024. That's according to the Federal Trade Commission. That translates to more than $500 million in reported losses. And the scams aren't even all done via text. You can find them on legitimate job posting boards too. Some are easy to catch, but some are really sophisticated impersonating real companies. So how do you spot them? Over at Marketplace Tech they asked for some tips from Mark Anthony Dyson. He's author of the Job Scam Report newsletter.

[Mark Anthony Dyson]

The biggest red flag would be one is that you'll get a text out of the blue or communication out of blue saying you're great about the job, not knowing why you're great about the job. And the job may not be even specific, but you're told all the benefits of the job. You can work from anywhere, you have all these flexible hours and you make great money. And that's all that a lot of people need have needed to go ahead and say, oh, this could be the perfect bridge job or this could be something I may not have to work regularly. Again, the hopes get up. They also may continue the transaction via Gmail or Yahoo or a fake URL that looks like the job site URL, but it's actually not until of course the scam happens and then they got the data, they got the money from the person, which the money is really the short part of it, but the personal information you know they can use and reuse over and over again.

[Sabri Benishore]

You can hear more tips [e-mail] the Trump administration is arguing that a law intended to guarantee back pay for furloughed government workers during a shutdown does not actually guarantee that. This further ratchets up the stakes of the impasse between Republicans and Democrats.

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[Sabri Benishore]

Earlier this year, President Trump unveiled plans for selling a Gold card visa for $5 million. You get a permanent residency in the US and a path to citizenship. But the US is not the only country to try this. The BBC's Josh Martin took a look at how it's worked out elsewhere.

[Josh Martin]

When Portugal launched its golden visa program in 2012, it hoped that foreign investors would revive its property market after a crash. The program caught the eye of Hong Kong citizen Lily Chan.

[Lily Chan]

We travel to Europe at least once a year for holidays and things. So I have been to Portugal before. It was peaceful, safe, good weather, good food, and it was cheap. 2017 I was thinking about retirement and try to diversify my money. It's an EU passport, so I will be free to go to different countries. I don't have to live in Portugal there, and even I get a passport and I only need to spend seven days out of a year there.

[Josh Martin]

The property is cheap, and although golden passports might grab the headlines due to alleged criminals exploiting them, golden visas can offer an insurance policy for citizens living in politically dicey circumstances. No wonder, then, that historically they've been purchased mainly by citizens of mainland China and the Middle East. The Golden Visa program for Portugal, which was based on residential property investment, helped channel 7.5 billion euros, or $8.7 billion, into the Portuguese economy. But it no longer exists, in part because of the overheating housing market in places like Lisbon. The list of places that'll grant you a golden visa is actually growing, even as the EU pulls up the drawbridge on a back route into the block. But one country at the bottom of the world is drawing the type of wealthy people that the Trump administration would like to invest in the United States, and they're not from China or the Middle east. They're from the US Itself.

[Mark Bergman]

Well, I had been traveling to New Zealand for quite an extensive time, more than 30 years, and I made the decision to move my business there and also to move there full time. So it was natural for me to enter the country as part of a program to bring investment into New Zealand.

[Josh Martin]

That's Mark Bergman, the US Tech investor and venture capitalist who moved from Silicon Valley to New Zealand under a previous iteration of the small country's Golden Visa program.

[Mark Bergman]

I view it more as opportunity. I'm investing in New Zealand and I'm expecting to see significant economic return. It's sort of up to me. If I do a bad job, obviously I won't see those returns. But my hope is that I will make significant return and create great value within New Zealand.

[Josh Martin]

The vast majority of the world's population will live, work and die in the same country they were born into. Golden Visas offer a way around this for the wealthy few. I'm Josh Martin for Marketplace, and in.

[Sabri Benishore]

New York, I'm Sabree Vandishore with the Marketplace Morning Report from APM American Public Media.

[Kimberly Adams]

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[Mark Anthony Dyson]

Applause.