Marketplace Morning Report Summary Episode: What Uncertainty Means for Back-to-School Shopping
Release Date: July 11, 2025

1. Tariff Uncertainty and Its Economic Implications

Sabri Ben Ashore introduces the episode by highlighting the latest developments in U.S. trade policies. President Trump has signaled potential increases in baseline import taxes from the current 10% to as high as 15-20%, with specific threats against Canadian imports.

Nancy Marshall Genser elaborates on these threats, particularly focusing on the announcement of a 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1st. However, there is a possible exception for Canadian products that comply with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), especially those contributing to the reduction of fentanyl flows into the U.S. She notes, “President Trump hasn’t made a final decision on energy and fertilizer tariffs yet” (01:28).

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney responded positively, emphasizing Canada’s commitment to combating fentanyl and cooperating with the U.S. to protect communities: “Canada has made vital progress towards stopping fentanyl and is committed to working with the US to save lives” (01:28).

2. Back-to-School Shopping Amid Economic Uncertainty

Sabri Ben Ashore sets the stage for discussing the Back-to-School season, noting a bleak sales forecast influenced by economic uncertainties. This sentiment is backed by a Deloitte survey indicating a dip in adjusted Back-to-School spending for the year.

Kristen Schwab reports on the survey findings, quoting Brian McCarthy: “Dipping to the lowest level we've seen in, let's say, five years since the pandemic” (03:03). The survey reveals that over 50% of respondents expect the economy to weaken in the next six months, and more than 80% feel their financial situation has deteriorated compared to the previous year.

Dana Telsey, CEO of Telsey Advisory Group, points out that retailers are grappling with pricing uncertainties due to ongoing tariffs. “Uncertainty surrounding pricing given tariffs is top of mind” (03:08). Retailers anticipate price increases in the summer or early fall, with some already implementing them. Diana Smith from Mintel adds, “Companies are trying to be transparent about tariffs by adding tax line items at checkout” (04:01).

3. Banking Sector Response to Economic Conditions

Transitioning to the financial sector, Sabri Ben Ashore discusses upcoming quarterly reports from major U.S. banks, which analysts expect to surpass profit forecasts due to gains from trading and investment banking.

David Reiling, CEO of Sunrise Banks in Minnesota, shares insights on loan demand: “Demand for loans has been fairly steady” (06:28). Despite steady mortgage demand, other lending areas like commercial real estate and small business loans are experiencing a slowdown. Reiling explains, “Borrowers are uncertain about the economy, leading to increased caution in new lending” (07:01).

David Schiff from FTI Consulting adds that lenders remain hesitant, particularly in sectors like renewable energy and healthcare, due to potential impacts from federal policy changes: “There’s concern around the ability of some borrowers to repay, prompting banks to consider tighter underwriting standards” (07:51).

Conversely, Dominic Miartin, CEO of American Pride Bank, highlights regional variations. In the southern U.S., areas like Atlanta, Florida, and North Carolina are seeing economic growth driven by migration, which sustains loan demand. “With strong loan demand, we can be more selective without expanding geographically or diversifying into new industries” (08:26).

4. Conclusion and Community Engagement

The episode concludes with Anil Scarborough, VP and General Manager of Marketplace’s business shows, inviting listeners to contribute to the future of economic journalism by joining the APM Board of Trustees or the Marketplace Philanthropic Council. Interested individuals are encouraged to apply by July 14th to support Marketplace’s mission of enhancing the nation’s economic intelligence.

Notable Quotes:

• Brian McCarthy: “Dipping to the lowest level we've seen in, let's say, five years since the pandemic” (03:03)
• Diana Smith: “Companies are trying to be transparent about tariffs by adding tax line items at checkout” (04:01)
• Dominic Miartin: “With strong loan demand, we can be more selective without expanding geographically or diversifying into new industries” (08:26)

This episode of Marketplace Morning Report provides a comprehensive overview of the economic factors influencing Back-to-School shopping, including tariff uncertainties, consumer financial pressures, and the banking sector's cautious approach to lending amidst broader economic concerns. For retailers and parents alike, understanding these dynamics is crucial for navigating the upcoming shopping season.