Loading summary
Marketplace Announcer
This Marketplace podcast is supported by VantageScore. The modern credit score used by nine of the 10 largest banks, over 3,700 companies, and now approved by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. VantageScore trended data alternative Data Reduced Risk
Sabri Benishore
the Cost of War we'll run the numbers from Marketplace. I'm Sabri Benishore in for David Brancaccio. First, there are reports this morning that several cargo ships were hit in the Strait of Hormuz today. They have not. Sun crews are safe. There are also reports that Iran previously laid a small number of mines in the critical shipping passage, prompting the US to bomb several Iranian mine laying boats earlier this week. All of this has essentially blocked off the Strait to everyone except Iran, which continues to send its own oil tankers to deliver oil to China. This situation has left entire regions of the globe competing to get the fuel they need, including liquefied natural gas. A fifth of global supply has now been taken off the market, Marketplace's Elizabeth Troval reports.
Elizabeth Troval
The longer the war continues, the more disruptive it will be to the European and Asian countries that import lng, says Jameson Coughlin with Natural Gas Intelligence.
Sabri Benishore
You've had such a big chunk of supply taken out, you're probably going to start to see things get pretty rough here by the end of the month, April, May, that's when competition really starts to intensify.
Elizabeth Troval
Lindsey Schneider with RBN Energy says while Asia has been disproportionately affected by the loss of natural gas, this is like a very interconnected global market. So Asia is now buying LNG that would have been going to Europe. While Europe is trying to refill natural gas inventories that depleted over the winter, they need to refill that storage so that they don't start next winter in this precarious position. Eventually, if the war continues, something's gotta give, says Lawrence Resekis with S and P Global Energy.
Sabri Benishore
One way or another, demand has to come down to meet the available supply,
Elizabeth Troval
and that would take the form of high prices, prices so high that for poor countries in Asia it may not
Sabri Benishore
simply not make sense to buy that gas. It may not work in terms of the economics, he says.
Elizabeth Troval
Wealthier countries in Europe and Northeast Asia are better situated for higher priced lng. I'm Elizabeth Trofal for Marketplace.
Sabri Benishore
As the war continues, we're starting to get a better idea of how much the US Military operation is costing US taxpayers. For more on that, we are joined by Kent Smetters, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School and head of the Penn Wharton budget model. Good morning, Kent.
Kent Smetters
Good morning.
Sabri Benishore
So we do not have an official estimate on costs from the Pentagon, but a lot of folks are trying to figure it out. Washington Post reported may have spent $5.6 billion in the first two days. The center for Strategic and International Studies said 3.7 billion in the first 100 hours. Does that line up with what your thinking is?
Kent Smetters
Our estimate right now is over the first couple days is closer to about the $3.5 billion mark. But having said that, we think the ongoing daily cost is going to be closer to about $800 million.
Sabri Benishore
$800 million a day?
Kent Smetters
Yeah.
Sabri Benishore
What goes into that number?
Kent Smetters
Certainly the forward costs of the ships that running the aircraft, I mean aircraft, even fourth generation aircraft cost about $25,000 per hour to run the intensive air and naval operations directly. The high end strike packages, ammunitions, all the depot level maintenance. And when you put all that together, it comes out to about $800 million a day.
Sabri Benishore
Does the cost of war per day come down over time or does it just kind of sit there as a constant?
Kent Smetters
So on one hand you have fewer strikes that are happening kind of later on. On the other hand, you have to loiter longer to find some of those targets. What makes this very different from say Iraq is Iraq had quite a bit few boots on the ground, whereas right now our boots on the ground are fairly limited.
Sabri Benishore
Is there a point at which spending like this pushes up the cost of borrowing for the United States government?
Kent Smetters
Sure. I mean, that's definitely true for virtually all spending and any deficits. So in particular, the interest rates that we saw pre Covid, those actually should be the current interest rates that we have today. If it were not for this exploding debt path that we're on, that means borrowing costs in your homes are going to be higher, mortgage rates are going to be higher, and so forth. The real risk, of course, is that they suddenly go up even more as the market loses confidence and the bond markets in particular loses confidence and really drives up these interest rates.
Sabri Benishore
Kent Smedders, professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School and head of the Penn Wharton budget model. Thank you so much.
Kent Smetters
Thank you for having me.
Marketplace Announcer
This marketplace podcast is supported by VantageScore, the modern credit score used by nine of the 10 largest banks, over 3,700 companies, and now approved by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Vantage Score Trended data alternative data reduced
LifeLock Advertiser
risk it's tax season and at Lifelock, we know you're tired of numbers, but here's a big one. You need to hear billions. That's the amount of money and refunds the IRS has flagged for possible identity fraud. Now here's another big number. 100 million. That's how many data points LifeLock monitors every second. If your identity is stolen, we'll fix it, guaranteed. One last big number. Save up to 40% your first year. Visit lifelock.com specialoffer for the threats you can't control.
Sabri Benishore
Terms apply Multbook is a social network where AI agents can chat a lot like people do on Facebook, and it is becoming a part of Facebook's parent. Meta Marketplace's Nancy Marshall Genser has more on that.
Nancy Marshall Genser
AI agents are bots, including Claude, which can perform tasks that include coding. Molt Books burst onto the AI scene in January of this year. It gives AI agents a platform where they can communicate with each other to do tasks for the humans they're tethered to. Meta's acquisition of Moltbook was first reported by Axios, which says the social media company will have AI agents verify their identity and establish a registry where verified agents are tethered to humans. As part of the deal, Meta will hire Molt Book's two creators. Facebook's parent did not disclose the terms of the acquisition. I'm Nancy Marshall Genser Marketplace, and in
Sabri Benishore
New York, I'm Sabri Benishore with the Marketplace Morning Report from APM American Public Media.
Rima Greis
Hey everyone, it's Rima Grais, and this week on my podcast this Is Uncomfortable. I'm talking with someone A lot of us grew up watching Steve Burns from Blue's Clues. Steve opens up about stumbling into the job in his early 20s and suddenly becoming a household name. But behind the scenes, things were more complicated, especially when it came to money and figuring out who he was. Outside the show, people knew Steve the
Sabri Benishore
Green Stripey Steve, and I felt like
LifeLock Advertiser
Green Stripey Steve sort of ate Steve Burns, and there was no Steve Burns anymore.
Rima Greis
Be sure to catch my conversation with Steve on this is Uncomfortable. Wherever you get your podcasts.
Date: March 11, 2026
Host: Sabri Benishore (in for David Brancaccio)
Notable Guests: Elizabeth Troval, Kent Smetters
This episode examines the economic and geopolitical costs of the ongoing war in the Middle East, focusing on both global energy disruptions and the rising financial burden of U.S. military involvement. Marketplace reporters and guest experts detail how the conflict is affecting global LNG supplies, intensifying energy competition among nations, and driving up American taxpayer expenses at an extraordinary rate. The conversation provides context for what these developments mean for the U.S. and global economies.
Sabri Benishore [00:18]:
"All of this has essentially blocked off the Strait to everyone except Iran, which continues to send its own oil tankers to deliver oil to China."
Elizabeth Troval (with Jameson Coughlin, Natural Gas Intelligence) [01:18]: "You've had such a big chunk of supply taken out, you're probably going to start to see things get pretty rough here by the end of the month, April, May, that's when competition really starts to intensify." — Jameson Coughlin
Elizabeth Troval [01:30]:
“Asia has been disproportionately affected by the loss of natural gas... So Asia is now buying LNG that would have been going to Europe. While Europe is trying to refill natural gas inventories that depleted over the winter... they need to refill that storage so that they don't start next winter in this precarious position.” — Lindsey Schneider, RBN Energy
Elizabeth Troval [02:10]:
“That would take the form of high prices, prices so high that for poor countries in Asia it may not... simply not make sense to buy that gas. It may not work in terms of the economics.” — Lawrence Resekis, S&P Global Energy
Sabri Benishore [03:26]:
"$800 million a day?"
Kent Smetters [03:28]:
"Yeah."
Kent Smetters [03:32]:
“Certainly the forward costs of the ships that running the aircraft, I mean aircraft, even fourth generation aircraft cost about $25,000 per hour to run... when you put all that together, it comes out to about $800 million a day.”
Sabri Benishore [04:01]:
"Does the cost of war per day come down over time or does it just kind of sit there as a constant?"
Kent Smetters [04:10]:
"On one hand you have fewer strikes that are happening kind of later on. On the other hand, you have to loiter longer to find some of those targets. What makes this very different from say Iraq is Iraq had quite a bit few boots on the ground, whereas right now our boots on the ground are fairly limited."
Sabri Benishore [04:31]:
"Is there a point at which spending like this pushes up the cost of borrowing for the United States government?"
Kent Smetters [04:40]:
"Sure. I mean, that's definitely true for virtually all spending and any deficits. ... The real risk, of course, is that they suddenly go up even more as the market loses confidence and the bond markets in particular loses confidence and really drives up these interest rates."
The tone is factual, measured, and analytically sharp, balancing straightforward reporting ("$800 million a day?") with expert explanation.
This episode provides a concise, data-packed briefing on the real-time global and domestic effects of the Middle East war—from supply shocks in LNG markets to mounting U.S. fiscal obligations—arming listeners with essential context for the cascading impact on commodity prices, international competition, and federal debt.