Marketplace Morning Report: "What's Next for Cuba After Venezuela?"

Date: January 22, 2026
Host: David Brancaccio (Marketplace)
Guest: Will Grant (BBC)
Episode Focus: The impact of regime change in Venezuela on Cuba, broader economic updates

Episode Overview

This episode explores two main themes:

• The recent shift in U.S. foreign policy regarding Greenland, with resultant market reactions.
• The fallout for Cuba after the U.S.-backed removal of Venezuela’s leader, focusing on Cuba’s energy struggles, fragile alliances, and mounting U.S. pressure.

Additional segments provide updates on mortgage rates and renter affordability in the U.S.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Markets React to U.S. Moves on Greenland

[00:24 – 01:31]

• David Brancaccio and Nancy Marshall Genser discuss dramatic swings in U.S. financial markets caused by President Trump's threats and subsequent withdrawal of tariffs over Greenland.
• News that tariffs would not be imposed on NATO members alleviated market concerns, causing a rebound.

"The S&P 500 fell more than 2% amid the President's threats of new tariffs...but then a new day Wednesday when all the main stock market indicators...went up 1.2%."
— David Brancaccio (00:24)

"Stocks popped after the President wrote in his social media post that he and the secretary of NATO had hammered out a framework for a future deal on Greenland and he would not impose the tariffs he had threatened..."
— Nancy Marshall Genser (00:51)

2. Strained Cuba-Venezuela Alliance and U.S. Pressure

[01:32 – 04:41]

Energy Crisis and Direct Observations

• Will Grant (BBC) describes visible impacts in Havana:
  • Widespread rolling blackouts.
  • The fear that the loss of Venezuelan oil will worsen Cuba’s economic hardship.
  • Venezuelan crude has been a lifeline for Cuba for over 25 years.

"You can see it play out in real time. I mean the rolling blackouts in Havana alone and then add on...the forced removal [of Maduro], the outlook looks even bleaker for Cubans..."
— Will Grant (02:04)

Political Uncertainty and Geopolitical Shifts

• New interim Venezuelan president, Del Sudo Rodriguez, signals willingness to align with U.S. interests, worrying Cuban officials.
• U.S. pressure increases for regime change in Cuba, with rumors of a tight U.S.-Cuba deal timeline.

"The fear, I think within the Cuban government, is that it does signal a much greater willingness to work with the Trump administration and therefore sort of jettison the close relationship with Havana."
— Will Grant (02:52)

Can Mexico Fill the Oil Gap?

• Mexico is poised to become a potential alternative supplier.
• However, pressure from the U.S. is likely to limit Mexico's support, depending on priorities of Mexican President Claudia Schoenbaum.

"There’s no doubt that Mexico is an important partner...But I think there will be significant pressure put on her government by the Trump administration to not replace Venezuela..."
— Will Grant (03:27)

U.S. Demands for Structural Change

• Trump is calling for Cuba to "make a deal before it’s too late", seeking political reforms unacceptable to the Cuban government.
• Will Grant notes that the U.S. (including figures like Marco Rubio) will require "root and branch" change.

"I can't imagine that any kind of negotiation would be acceptable to the White House or to Marco Rubio that didn't involve, as you say, basically root and branch reform. And quite clearly that isn't acceptable to the Cuban government."
— Will Grant (04:13)

"It currently looks like yet another moment of political conflict, if not spilling over into actual conflict for the time being."
— Will Grant (04:28)

3. U.S. Pushes for Cuban Regime Change

[04:43 – 05:14]

• Wall Street Journal reports U.S. aims for regime change in Cuba by year-end.
• U.S. targets Cuba’s overseas medical missions for additional pressure, as they are a significant source of hard currency for the island.

"The US is now trying to curb Havana's overseas medical missions which generate the country a lot of hard curr[ency]."
— David Brancaccio (04:43)

4. US Housing Market Updates

[06:38 – 07:59]

• Mortgage Rates: Have increased, reaching an average of 6.2%.
• Rental Market: Highlights from Carla Javier’s reporting:
  • New apartment supply is focused at the high end, giving some tenants leverage for perks or discounts.
  • Many renters don’t benefit if new supply isn’t in their market or price tier (Ben Keys, Wharton School).
  • Orfe Divunguy (Zillow) notes that rental affordability (share of income spent on rent) is the best since August 2021, particularly benefiting young renters in small units.

"Many renters aren't feeling the benefits of new supply when it's occurring either in a different market altogether, or in a different price tier."
— Ben Keys (07:24)

"That measure is the lowest since roughly August of 2021."
— Orfe Divunguy (07:48)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Will Grant describes Havana’s blackouts and a government on edge:
  "You can see it play out in real time. I mean the rolling blackouts in Havana alone and...the outlook looks even bleaker for Cubans because they are contemplating the very real possibility of the tap of Venezuelan crude being switched off." (02:04)

• On potential for Mexico to replace Venezuelan oil:
  "There will be significant pressure put on her government by the Trump administration to not replace Venezuela..." (03:27)

• On U.S. intentions for Cuba:
  "The US Wants regime change in Cuba by the end of this year. The report...says the US Is now trying to curb Havana's overseas medical missions which generate the country a lot of hard curr[ency]." (04:43)

• Ben Keys on rental market disparities:
  "Many renters aren't feeling the benefits of new supply when it's occurring either in a different market altogether, or in a different price tier." (07:24)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:24 — U.S. market swings after Greenland tariff threats
• 01:32 — U.S. moves on Venezuela and implications for Cuba
• 02:04 — Havana’s current energy crisis (Will Grant)
• 03:27 — Mexico as alternative oil supplier – U.S. pressure
• 04:13 — U.S. calls for major reforms in Cuba
• 04:43 — U.S. seeking Cuban regime change, targeting medical missions
• 06:38 — Mortgage rates update and rental market insights

Tone and Language

The conversation is concise, urgent, and fact-driven, with a clear focus on economic and geopolitical ramifications. Will Grant provides colorful, on-the-ground detail, while David Brancaccio maintains a brisk, informative pace suited for a news-focused morning show.

Summary prepared for listeners wanting a thorough, structured recap without the need to listen to the full episode.