What's next for Cuba after Venezuela?

Summary

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Marketplace Morning Report: "What's Next for Cuba After Venezuela?"

Date: January 22, 2026
Host: David Brancaccio (Marketplace)
Guest: Will Grant (BBC)
Episode Focus: The impact of regime change in Venezuela on Cuba, broader economic updates

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Episode Overview

This episode explores two main themes:

• The recent shift in U.S. foreign policy regarding Greenland, with resultant market reactions.
• The fallout for Cuba after the U.S.-backed removal of Venezuela’s leader, focusing on Cuba’s energy struggles, fragile alliances, and mounting U.S. pressure.

Additional segments provide updates on mortgage rates and renter affordability in the U.S.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Markets React to U.S. Moves on Greenland

[00:24 – 01:31]

• David Brancaccio and Nancy Marshall Genser discuss dramatic swings in U.S. financial markets caused by President Trump's threats and subsequent withdrawal of tariffs over Greenland.
• News that tariffs would not be imposed on NATO members alleviated market concerns, causing a rebound.

"The S&P 500 fell more than 2% amid the President's threats of new tariffs...but then a new day Wednesday when all the main stock market indicators...went up 1.2%."
— David Brancaccio (00:24)

"Stocks popped after the President wrote in his social media post that he and the secretary of NATO had hammered out a framework for a future deal on Greenland and he would not impose the tariffs he had threatened..."
— Nancy Marshall Genser (00:51)

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2. Strained Cuba-Venezuela Alliance and U.S. Pressure

[01:32 – 04:41]

Energy Crisis and Direct Observations

• Will Grant (BBC) describes visible impacts in Havana:
  • Widespread rolling blackouts.
  • The fear that the loss of Venezuelan oil will worsen Cuba’s economic hardship.
  • Venezuelan crude has been a lifeline for Cuba for over 25 years.

"You can see it play out in real time. I mean the rolling blackouts in Havana alone and then add on...the forced removal [of Maduro], the outlook looks even bleaker for Cubans..."
— Will Grant (02:04)

Political Uncertainty and Geopolitical Shifts

• New interim Venezuelan president, Del Sudo Rodriguez, signals willingness to align with U.S. interests, worrying Cuban officials.
• U.S. pressure increases for regime change in Cuba, with rumors of a tight U.S.-Cuba deal timeline.

"The fear, I think within the Cuban government, is that it does signal a much greater willingness to work with the Trump administration and therefore sort of jettison the close relationship with Havana."
— Will Grant (02:52)

Can Mexico Fill the Oil Gap?

• Mexico is poised to become a potential alternative supplier.
• However, pressure from the U.S. is likely to limit Mexico's support, depending on priorities of Mexican President Claudia Schoenbaum.

"There’s no doubt that Mexico is an important partner...But I think there will be significant pressure put on her government by the Trump administration to not replace Venezuela..."
— Will Grant (03:27)

U.S. Demands for Structural Change

• Trump is calling for Cuba to "make a deal before it’s too late", seeking political reforms unacceptable to the Cuban government.
• Will Grant notes that the U.S. (including figures like Marco Rubio) will require "root and branch" change.

"I can't imagine that any kind of negotiation would be acceptable to the White House or to Marco Rubio that didn't involve, as you say, basically root and branch reform. And quite clearly that isn't acceptable to the Cuban government."
— Will Grant (04:13)

"It currently looks like yet another moment of political conflict, if not spilling over into actual conflict for the time being."
— Will Grant (04:28)

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3. U.S. Pushes for Cuban Regime Change

[04:43 – 05:14]

• Wall Street Journal reports U.S. aims for regime change in Cuba by year-end.
• U.S. targets Cuba’s overseas medical missions for additional pressure, as they are a significant source of hard currency for the island.

"The US is now trying to curb Havana's overseas medical missions which generate the country a lot of hard curr[ency]."
— David Brancaccio (04:43)

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4. US Housing Market Updates

[06:38 – 07:59]

• Mortgage Rates: Have increased, reaching an average of 6.2%.
• Rental Market: Highlights from Carla Javier’s reporting:
  • New apartment supply is focused at the high end, giving some tenants leverage for perks or discounts.
  • Many renters don’t benefit if new supply isn’t in their market or price tier (Ben Keys, Wharton School).
  • Orfe Divunguy (Zillow) notes that rental affordability (share of income spent on rent) is the best since August 2021, particularly benefiting young renters in small units.

"Many renters aren't feeling the benefits of new supply when it's occurring either in a different market altogether, or in a different price tier."
— Ben Keys (07:24)

"That measure is the lowest since roughly August of 2021."
— Orfe Divunguy (07:48)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Will Grant describes Havana’s blackouts and a government on edge:
  "You can see it play out in real time. I mean the rolling blackouts in Havana alone and...the outlook looks even bleaker for Cubans because they are contemplating the very real possibility of the tap of Venezuelan crude being switched off." (02:04)

• On potential for Mexico to replace Venezuelan oil:
  "There will be significant pressure put on her government by the Trump administration to not replace Venezuela..." (03:27)

• On U.S. intentions for Cuba:
  "The US Wants regime change in Cuba by the end of this year. The report...says the US Is now trying to curb Havana's overseas medical missions which generate the country a lot of hard curr[ency]." (04:43)

• Ben Keys on rental market disparities:
  "Many renters aren't feeling the benefits of new supply when it's occurring either in a different market altogether, or in a different price tier." (07:24)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:24 — U.S. market swings after Greenland tariff threats
• 01:32 — U.S. moves on Venezuela and implications for Cuba
• 02:04 — Havana’s current energy crisis (Will Grant)
• 03:27 — Mexico as alternative oil supplier – U.S. pressure
• 04:13 — U.S. calls for major reforms in Cuba
• 04:43 — U.S. seeking Cuban regime change, targeting medical missions
• 06:38 — Mortgage rates update and rental market insights

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Tone and Language

The conversation is concise, urgent, and fact-driven, with a clear focus on economic and geopolitical ramifications. Will Grant provides colorful, on-the-ground detail, while David Brancaccio maintains a brisk, informative pace suited for a news-focused morning show.

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Summary prepared for listeners wanting a thorough, structured recap without the need to listen to the full episode.

Transcript

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[David Brancaccio]

President Trump's 270 degree turn on Greenland was well received by players in financial markets. David I'm David Brancaccio in Los Angeles. On Tuesday, The S&P 500 fell more than 2% amid the President's threats of new tariffs on European countries that object to the US Taking Greenland. But then a new day Wednesday when all the main stock market indicators, including the S and p, went up 1.2%.

[Nancy Marshall Genser]

Investors were watching Trump closely as he spoke yesterday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Stocks popped after the President wrote in his social media post that he and the secretary of NATO had hammered out a framework for a future deal on Greenland and he would not impose the tariffs he had threatened on eight NATO members starting February 1. Trump had announced those new import taxes over the weekend, leading to a sharp market sell off. Earlier this week, traders also dumped U.S. bonds, causing treasury yields to increase. When yields rise, they push up borrowing costs for US Consumers and the federal government. I'm Nancy Marshall Genser for for Marketplace.

[David Brancaccio]

After U.S. forces seized the leader of Venezuela and his government move to fall in line with U.S. interests, the administration is now upping pressure on Communist party ruled Cuba. The Cuban economy is a persistent mess and Venezuela had been a key source of its oil. The BBC's Will Grant is just back to his base in Mexico from Cuba. Will welcome.

[Will Grant]

It's a pleasure.

[David Brancaccio]

David, you were just in Cuba on a reporting assignment. I mean, broad brush, not enough energy to meet needs. Can you see it play out?

[Will Grant]

Yeah, you can. You can see it play out in real time. I mean the rolling blackouts in Havana alone and then add on top of that, in the wake of the removal of Nicolas Maduro from power, the forced removal, the outlook looks even bleaker for Cubans because they are contemplating the very real possibility of the tap of Venezuelan crude being switched off. And that Venezuelan crude has, to all intents and purposes, propped up the Cuban revolution for the past two and a half decades.

[David Brancaccio]

Did you see actual effects of the cutoff of Venezuela's oil?

[Will Grant]

Well, I don't think we're there yet on that, but let me give you a little picture. There was a sort of anti US Imperialism march that went past the US Embassy in Havana led by the President. And as that was happening, we were getting information on our phone that the now interim President Del Sudo Rodriguez was meeting with the head of the CIA in Caracas. And of course I showed this information to Cuban official and he sort of went grey because it does give the indication, the fear, I think within the Cuban government is that it does signal a much greater willingness to work with the Trump administration and therefore sort of jettison the close relationship with Havana.

[David Brancaccio]

Mexico is a big oil producer and seems poised to send some of its oil toward Cuba.

[Will Grant]

Correct. And I mean, I think most estimates suggest that Venezuela has remained the main supplier of oil oil to Cuba, but there's no doubt that Mexico is an important partner now. Would they step in and replace Venezuela entirely? Well, I think then we need to look at Claudia Schoenbaum's list of priorities. I think that there will be significant pressure put on her government by the Trump administration to not replace Venezuela, to not replace Nicolas Maduro's relationship with Cuba.

[David Brancaccio]

Now, President Trump has urged Cuba to, quote, make a deal before it's too late. I mean, a deal acceptable to the US Administration would involve structural political change in Cuba.

[Will Grant]

Absolutely. And I can't imagine that any kind of negotiation would be acceptable to the White House or to Marco Rubio that didn't involve, as you say, basically root and branch reform. And quite clearly that isn't acceptable to the Cuban government. So it currently looks like yet another moment of political conflict, if not spilling over into actual conflict for the time being.

[David Brancaccio]

Will Grant with our editorial partners at the BBC, thank you very much.

[Will Grant]

It's been a pleasure.

[David Brancaccio]

The Wall Street Journal has an exclusive today saying the US Wants regime change in Cuba by the end of this year. The report, citing unnamed officials, says the US Is now trying to curb Havana's overseas medical missions which generate the country a lot of hard curr.

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[David Brancaccio]

We cover the high cost of shelter from multiple angles here for prospective home buyers. Mortgage rates have jumped this week from just above 6 to now an average 6.2%. As for renters, here's Marketplace's Carla Javier.

[Carla Javier]

It all ultimately boils down to new supply, says Ben Keys at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, where it's easier to build more, he says they tend.

[Ben Keys]

To be building at the high end of the market, so most new apartment buildings come in towards the top of the rent distribution, and that's where the competition is for tenants at the moment.

[Carla Javier]

When units are vying for tenants, he says, they can get perks, negotiate with landlords or even move at a discount. But he says not all renters get that flexibility.

[Ben Keys]

Many renters aren't feeling the benefits of new supply when it's occurring either in a different market altogether or in a different price tier.

[Carla Javier]

The real estate tool Zillow reports that its data show renting is getting more affordable, says senior economist Orfe Divunguy. He says with incomes increasing and rent growth moderating, especially compared to the big pandemic increases, we're really talking about the.

[Orfe Divunguy]

Share of income that a household would have to spend on rent. And according to our data, that measure is the lowest since roughly August of 2021.

[Carla Javier]

He says the people seeing big affordability improvements are those young renters in smaller apartment units. I'm Carla Javier for Marketplace.

[David Brancaccio]

In his speech in Switzerland yesterday, President Trump, who is also a real estate magnet, talked of the need to be careful when working to lower the cost of housing because of the danger of hurting the property values of existing owners. In Los Angeles, I'm David Brancaccio. Marketplace Morning Report from APM American Public Media.

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