What's next for the USMCA?

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report

Episode: What’s next for the USMCA?
Date: March 27, 2026
Host: Nancy Marshall-Genzer (in for David Brancaccio)

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Episode Overview

This episode centers on the impending review and uncertain future of the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement), a cornerstone trade agreement that defines North American economic relations. With the USMCA up for renewal, the show features commentary and analysis from Lori Wallach, director of Rethink Trade at the American Economic Liberties Project, who outlines the deal’s shortcomings, the negotiation process, and what’s at stake for jobs, trade balances, and manufacturing.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Landscape of Tech Layoffs and Workplace Anxiety

Segment Begins: 00:59

• Meta announced more layoffs across several divisions, following another round in January.
• According to Zeti (survey), almost one-third of tech companies experienced at least two rounds of layoffs between 2023 and 2025.
• Jasmine Escalera (Zeti): “We saw that almost half of all layoffs come from repeat layoff companies, and 70% of repeat layoffs are actually happening within 12 months.” (01:40)
• Vicky Salemi (Monster.com): Multiple rounds of layoffs cause increased anxiety and stress among remaining employees.
• Business impact (Sandra Sutcher, Harvard Business School): Companies that lay off employees see a roughly 70% drop in morale and a 20% decline in productivity, higher product defects, and reluctance to take risks.
• Kimberly Adams: “It’s hard to do your best work when you’re worried the next round of layoffs is coming for you.” (02:30)

2. Senate Approves DHS Funding Bill

Segment Begins: 02:39

• Senate passed a bill funding most of the Department of Homeland Security, including the TSA.
• Notably, the bill excludes funding for ICE and the Border Patrol.
• Awaiting a vote in the House.

3. The USMCA’s Future: What’s Next?

Main Segment Begins: 04:33
Guest: Lori Wallach, Rethink Trade (American Economic Liberties Project)

What is the Status of USMCA?

• Nancy Marshall-Genzer: “The USMCA is up for renewal…its future is up in the air, partly because it didn’t live up to its promises for the US.” (05:11)
• Wallach: The USMCA, hailed as “incredible” by former President Trump, has not delivered the promised results—U.S. manufacturing jobs have decreased, especially in the auto sector, and trade deficits with Mexico and Canada are “much, much bigger.”
  • Quote: “The agreement…has had outcomes that were basically the opposite of what we were promised.” (05:25)

How Are Negotiations Progressing?

• Bilateral meetings are underway (separately: US-Canada, US-Mexico).
  • Mexico negotiations have made more progress than with Canada.
  • The core issue remains low Mexican wages, limiting their ability to buy US exports and perpetuating a trade deficit.
• Wallach notes need for “big renegotiation,” especially on wage standards and rules blocking imports from non-compliant countries.

Trade & Tariffs: Canada’s Carve-Out

• Wallach: Canada has diverged, inviting Chinese firms to manufacture cars, after agreeing (with US & Mexico) to high tariffs against Chinese EVs.
  • Quote: “There won’t be a successful North American auto market without really a North American auto market. And that’s going to require these external tariffs.” (07:08)

Prospects for Renewal

• Wallach: “There is a transpartisan interest in getting this agreement and getting North America to be that high wage manufacturing powerhouse that we need.” (08:01)
• She anticipates “majority support in Congress” for a renegotiated USMCA—if it delivers its original promises of balanced trade, good jobs, and higher wages.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Jasmine Escalera (Zeti): “Almost half of all layoffs come from repeat layoff companies, and 70% of repeat layoffs are actually happening within 12 months.” (01:40)
• Sandra Sutcher (Harvard): Companies laying off staff can see up to 70% decline in morale and 20% drop in productivity. (02:08)
• Lori Wallach: “We have fewer manufacturing jobs overall in the US economy than before the USMCA. We have fewer auto manufacturing jobs. And our trade balance…is much, much bigger.” (05:25)
• Lori Wallach: “There won’t be a successful North American auto market without really a North American auto market. And that’s going to require these external tariffs.” (07:08)
• Lori Wallach: “There is a transpartisan interest in getting this agreement and getting North America to be that high wage manufacturing powerhouse that we need.” (08:01)

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Important Segment Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment | Key Topics Discussed | |-----------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------| | 00:59 | Tech industry layoffs analysis | Layoff trends, employee anxiety, business effects | | 02:39 | Senate DHS funding bill update | TSA funding, excluded agencies, where bill stands | | 04:33 | USMCA up for renewal | Commerce investigation, trade flows, USMCA background | | 05:11 | Lori Wallach on USMCA performance | Shortcomings, job loss, trade deficit | | 06:16 | State of negotiations | Bilateral talks, wage issues in Mexico | | 07:08 | Canadian divergence in auto sector | Tariffs against Chinese EVs, supply chain risks | | 08:01 | Political support for USMCA improvement | Bipartisan consensus, future prospects | | 08:30 | Lori Wallach on what's needed in renegotiation | Delivering original promises of the USMCA |

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Summary

This episode provides a concise yet thorough briefing on both key economic news and deeper North American trade issues. Listeners gain insights into:

• The persistent problem and ripple effects of repeat tech layoffs.
• Ongoing legislative maneuvers in homeland security funding.
• The uncertain, pivotal renewal phase of the USMCA, with expert Lori Wallach highlighting the agreement’s failure to produce promised US benefits, new tensions over the auto sector, especially vis-à-vis China, and the real possibility for progressive reform if given congressional action.

The commentary illustrates urgent concerns and points of contention, especially around Canadian policy divergence and persistent low wages in Mexico, setting the stage for a contentious renegotiation process. Despite shortcomings, bipartisan support suggests the deal’s next iteration could be both ambitious and more equitable—if hard political work succeeds.

Transcript

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[Nancy Marshall Genser]

the anxiety of Multiple Layoffs From Marketplace, I'm Nancy Marshall Genser in for David Boncaccio. Meta announced this week it's laying off hundreds of workers across several divisions, fresh after another round of cuts back in January. If it feels like you're regularly hearing about layoffs in the tech sector, you are not imagining things. The resumes say Zeti does did a survey of tech layoff announcements and found almost a third of tech companies did at least two rounds of layoffs between 2023 and 2025. Marketplace's Kimberly Adams has more.

[Kimberly Adams]

Zeti looked at publicly reported data about more than 1,000 tech companies. Here's Zeti's Jasmine Escalera.

[Jasmine Escalera / Lori Wallach]

We saw that almost half of all layoffs come from repeat layoff companies, and 70% of repeat layoffs are actually happening within 12 months.

[Kimberly Adams]

It's bad enough for the workers left behind after one round of layoffs, with survivor's guilt and all. But Vicky Salemi with job search site Monster says when you have multiple layoffs,

[Jasmine Escalera / Lori Wallach]

they're thinking, okay, wait a minute, am I next? So there's more anxiety. Usually there's more concern. There's just more, more stress in general.

[Kimberly Adams]

And that has consequences for the business as well. Sandra Sutcher at Harvard business school says 70% of companies that lay people off see a decline in employee morale in the first year, and there's a 20%

[Nancy Marshall Genser]

decline in productivity, higher rates of product defects, and in general, a sort of a concern about taking risks because it's

[Kimberly Adams]

hard to do your best work when you're worried the next round of layoffs is coming for you. In Washington, I'm Kimberly Adams for Marketplace.

[Nancy Marshall Genser]

The Senate has approved a package funding most of the Department of Homeland Security, including the Transportation Security Administration. There is no funding for ICE or the Border Patrol. The bill now goes to the House for a vote.

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[Nancy Marshall Genser]

two US senators are calling on the Commerce Department to investigate reports of heavy construction and farm equipment made in Mexico. This comes as a Trump administration review of the US Mexico Canada agreement is underway. The USMCA accounts for more than $4 billion worth of cross border trade. It was an economic cornerstone of President Trump's first term and it is up for renewal. For more on this, we're joined by Lori Wallach. She's director of the Rethink Trade program at the American Economic Liberties Project, a nonprofit research organization. She's been tracking negotiations. Lori, welcome.

[Jasmine Escalera / Lori Wallach]

Thank you.

[Nancy Marshall Genser]

So the USMCA is up for renewal six years after it took effect. Of course it allowed for duty free trade among the U.S. canada and Mexico, but its future is up in the air, partly because it didn't live up to its promises for the US well,

[Jasmine Escalera / Lori Wallach]

it's a little unclear what will happen next. The agreement, which was, you know, something President Trump called incredible and was his biggest success of trade in his first term, has had outcomes that were basically the opposite of what we were promised. So we have fewer manufacturing jobs overall in the US Economy than before the usmca. We have fewer auto manufacturing jobs. And our trade balance with our partners, Mexico and Canada is much, much bigger. And so that is a set of problems that can be fixed in fixing this agreement. But the President has to decide to do that.

[Nancy Marshall Genser]

So negotiations have started. Can you tell us where the negotiations are at the moment? I think Mexico is farther along than Canada.

[Jasmine Escalera / Lori Wallach]

Here the three countries have started bilateral meetings. Mexico and Canada are not meeting with the US together, but rather US Canada, US Mexico. And the meetings with Mexico have gone farther so far. But the really big fixes, the things that are necessary. For instance, the premise of the USMCA replacing NAFTA was we'd have a high standard, higher wage agreement and we'd get rid of that trade deficit because workers in Mexico would make more be able to buy more exports from the U.S. and so the biggest problem with USMCA remains the direly low wages in Mexico. And that is a scenario that a big renegotiation with some new rules also to make sure that imports from countries that aren't playing by the rules don't get in that can fix some of these problems.

[Nancy Marshall Genser]

So the US and Mexico have a lot to talk about. Where is Canada?

[Jasmine Escalera / Lori Wallach]

Mexico, Canada and the U.S. all agreed to put up high tariffs against imports of subsidized trade cheating Chinese electric vehicles. And that has actually helped within North America to try and solidify creating a supply chain here. And Canada unilaterally dropped that and has proceeded to invite Chinese firms to come in and invest, make Chinese cars in Canada. And that is going to be a huge problem to overcome because there won't be a successful North American auto market without really a North American auto market. And that's going to require these external tariffs.

[Nancy Marshall Genser]

So I guess USMCA's chances of survival are helped because it has some bipartisan support. Absolutely.

[Jasmine Escalera / Lori Wallach]

There is a transpartisan interest in getting this agreement and getting North America to be that high wage manufacturing powerhouse that we need. So there is majority support, I would say, in Congress probably to pass a renegotiated USMCA that fixes some of these structural issues to actually make it deliver the balanced trade and good jobs and higher wages that was its initial promise.

[Nancy Marshall Genser]

Lori Wallach is director at Rethink Trade. Thank you.

[Jasmine Escalera / Lori Wallach]

Thank you.

[Nancy Marshall Genser]

Our executive producer is Nancy Fargali. Our digital team includes Antoinette Brock, Emily McCune and Dylan Mietanen. Our engineers are Brian Allison, Tessa Block and David Schreck. In Washington, I'm Nancy Marshall Genzer with the Marketplace Morning Report from apm, American Public Media.

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