When calculating statistics becomes political

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report: When Calculating Statistics Becomes Political
Release Date: August 4, 2025
Host: Marketplace

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1. Political Turmoil at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

In the opening segment of the episode, Marketplace's Sabri Benishore introduces a significant development concerning the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). On Friday, the BLS reported that job creation in the United States for July was substantially lower than anticipated. Additionally, the bureau revised its job creation numbers downward for May and June, indicating 20,258,000 fewer jobs created in those months than initially estimated.

Reacting swiftly to these revelations, President Donald Trump took to his social media platform, Truth Social, expressing dissatisfaction with the revised figures. At [01:43], Sabri reports:

Sabri Benishore [01:08]: "When calculating statistics becomes political from Marketplace, I'm Sabri Bennyshore in for David Brancaccio."

Marketplace's Mitchell Hartman delves deeper into the repercussions of the report. President Trump accused the BLS of rigging the July job numbers to politically undermine his administration. Consequently, he fired the BLS Commissioner, Erica McIntarfer, who had been serving for a year and a half of her four-year tenure.

Mitchell Hartman [01:43]: "President Trump's reaction to the bad jobs report news was swift. He posted on Truth Social that, 'we need accurate jobs numbers,' and proceeded to fire the BLS commissioner, Erica McIntarfer, who was appointed by President Biden."

Experts, however, challenge Trump's allegations of data manipulation. Steve Pearson, Director of Science Policy at the American Statistical Association, emphasizes the integrity of the BLS data production process.

Mitchell Hartman [02:23]: "Steve Pearson is Director of Science Policy at the American Statistical Association and was interviewed before this latest controversy, the signal."

Pearson and other statisticians highlight that the BLS data undergoes rigorous scrutiny and cross-checking by nonpartisan career statisticians, making any manipulation nearly impossible.

Mitchell Hartman [02:37]: "There's been no such evidence about the production of the July jobs report so far. Erica McIntarfer was a year and a half into a four-year appointment as BLS commissioner confirmed by the Senate. The president has the right to fire her. Her temporary replacement is a well-respected, longtime career BLS employee."

This incident underscores the increasing politicization of economic data and its potential ramifications on public trust in governmental institutions.

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2. Challenges in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector

Sabri Benishore transitions the discussion to the struggles facing the U.S. manufacturing sector. A recent report from the Institute for Supply Management reveals that manufacturing orders shrank for the sixth consecutive month in July. This decline follows the Labor Department's announcement that manufacturing employment reached its lowest level in three years.

Marketplace's Justin Ho provides an in-depth analysis of the situation, highlighting the multifaceted challenges manufacturers face:

Tom Derry [03:22]: "Manufacturers have plenty of reasons to be holding off on hiring right now," says Tom Derry, CEO of the Institute for Supply Management.

One of the primary concerns cited by manufacturers is weak demand. Tom Derry elaborates on the hesitancy to fill job roles when there's insufficient work:

Tom Derry [03:37]: "Demand looks weak and I'm not going to fill that job role because I'm not going to pay somebody for work I can't get. There isn't work to be done there."

Additionally, the ongoing tariff disputes contribute to the uncertainty, further dampening hiring prospects. Kathy Bostjansik, Chief Economist at Nationwide, anticipates that manufacturing jobs will remain subdued for the remainder of the year unless there's clarity in tariff policies.

Kathy Bostjansik [03:50]: "If they know what the tariff rate will be and what the new trade environment will look like, they can then plan around that, make adjustments."

While there is potential for manufacturing employment to rebound once tariff uncertainties are resolved, Bostjansik does not foresee a significant surge in hiring. Instead, manufacturers are expected to invest more in technology to enhance productivity rather than expanding their workforce.

Tom Derry [04:17]: "Manufacturers are likely to invest more resources into better technology rather than hiring more workers."

This shift towards technological investment suggests a future where automation and advanced manufacturing techniques could play a pivotal role in revitalizing the sector without a corresponding increase in employment numbers.

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3. Unraveling the Mysteries of Hailstorms

Shifting focus from the economic landscape, Sabri Benishore introduces a meteorological segment addressing the enigmatic nature of hailstorms. Hailstones, which range from nine to over 100 miles per hour in speed, cause billions of dollars in damage annually. Despite their prevalence, many aspects of hail formation and behavior remain poorly understood.

Rachel Cohen from Mountain West News narrates the experiences of Dewey Kahawai, an auto glass business owner, who encountered a severe hailstorm:

Rachel Cohen [06:00]: "Dewey Kahawai was sleeping when he heard a knock on his bedroom window."

Kahawai recounts the frightening moment of the hailstorm and the subsequent damage to vehicles in his area:

Rachel Cohen [06:11]: "Then he heard thumps on the roof and he knew a hailstorm was sweeping through Colorado's eastern plains, 50 miles north of Denver. His house was fine, but by morning his phone was blowing up with calls and texts."

The economic impact is substantial, with Kahawai alone addressing hundreds of thousands of dollars in damages. Ian Giamenko from the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety underscores the financial toll of hailstorms:

Ian Giamenko [06:40]: "Hail costs can add up."

While hailstorms may not pose the same immediate life safety threats as other natural disasters like hurricanes or flash floods, their cumulative financial impact is significant and growing.

Climate change is believed to influence hailstorm patterns, potentially leading to fewer but more destructive events. To better understand and predict hailstorms, a comprehensive research initiative named ICE CHIP is underway. Led by Becky Adams Selen, the project involves deploying drones to collect data on hailstone formation and behavior.

Becky Adams Selen [07:38]: "They flew drones into clouds and measured the hail that fell on the ground to figure out how fast."

The data gathered aims to elucidate the factors contributing to hail formation, such as temperature, elevation, and wind speed, which could enhance the accuracy of storm warnings.

Becky Adams Selen [07:58]: "This data could be used to give more detailed warnings and share information like the hail swath's gonna be about five miles wide and it'll probably produce hail for an hour and it's gonna be blown by winds at 20 miles an hour. Like that would be awesome."

Improved predictive capabilities would allow individuals and businesses to take proactive measures, such as draping netting over crops or securing vehicles before a hailstorm strikes.

Rachel Cohen concludes the segment by emphasizing the ongoing efforts to demystify hailstorms and mitigate their impact on communities:

Rachel Cohen [08:26]: "Giving people time to drape netting over crops and pull cars into the garage."

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Conclusion

This episode of Marketplace Morning Report offers a comprehensive exploration of the intersection between politics and statistical integrity, the challenges plaguing the U.S. manufacturing sector, and the ongoing scientific endeavors to understand and mitigate the effects of hailstorms. Through insightful reporting and expert interviews, the episode underscores the profound implications of political actions on economic data, the resilience of industries amidst global trade uncertainties, and the critical need for advanced research in weather prediction to safeguard communities and economies alike.

Transcript

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[Sabri Benishore]

When calculating statistics becomes political from marketplace, I'm Sabri Bennyshore in for David Brancaccio. On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that job creation in the US Was much lower than expected in July and revised down its numbers for May and June, reporting there were 20 258,000 fewer jobs created in those months than initially estimated. President Trump, upset about the revisions, then proceeded to fire the head of that bureau. The president now says he'll name a replacement in the coming days. Marketplace's Mitchell Hartman has more.

[Mitchell Hartman]

President Trump's reaction to the bad jobs report news was swift. He posted on Truth Social that quote, we need accurate jobs numbers, and proceeded to fire the BLS commissioner, Erica McIntarfer, who was appointed by President Biden. President Trump alleged that the July jobs numbers were rigged to damage him politically, but experts in the field say any such manipulation of the data by bls, including by the commissioner, would be nigh on impossible. Given the high level of scrutiny and cross checking by nonpartisan career statisticians that the entire process of BLS data production undergoes.

[Sponsor Announcer]

And if there were to be some sort of breach, we would know about it.

[Mitchell Hartman]

Steve Pearson is Director of Science Policy at the American Statistical association and was interviewed before this latest controversy, the signal.

[Sponsor Announcer]

Would come out that there has been some sort of improper meddling with the data.

[Mitchell Hartman]

There's been no such evidence about the production of the July jobs report so far. Erica McIntarfer was a year and a half into a four year appointment as BLS commissioner confirmed by the Senate. The president has the right to fire her. Her temporary replacement is a well respected, longtime career BLS employee. I'm Mitchell Hartman for Marketplace.

[Sabri Benishore]

Manufacturing in the US Is having a rough time. A report out last week from the Institute for Supply Management found that in July, manufacturing orders shrank for the sixth month in a row. That is after the Labor Department reported that manufacturing employment hit its lowest level in three years. Marketplace's Justin Ho has more on what's going on and America's factories.

[Tom Derry]

Manufacturers have plenty of reasons to be holding off on hiring right now, says Tom Derry, CEO of the Institute for Supply Management.

[Sponsor Announcer]

Demand looks weak and I'm not going to fill that job role because I'm not going to pay somebody for work I can't get. There isn't work to be done there.

[Tom Derry]

Darry says all of the tariff back and forth isn't helping either. Kathy Bostjansik, chief economist at Nationwide, says she expects manufacturing jobs to stay soft this year, at least until tariff policy starts to shape up.

[Sponsor Announcer]

If they know what the tariff rate will be and what the new trade environment will look like, they can then plan around that, make adjustments.

[Tom Derry]

Bostianczyk says once that happens, manufacturing employment should start to pick up again, especially if manufacturers decide to expand in the US but she doesn't expect hiring to boom.

[Sponsor Announcer]

We could boost production, but not necessarily one for one, increasing employment levels.

[Tom Derry]

Along with that, bostianczyk says manufacturers are likely to invest more resources into better technology rather than hiring more workers. I'm Justin Ho for Marketplace.

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[Sabri Benishore]

Hail, as in the balls of ice that fall from the sky at anywhere from nine to more than 100 miles per hour, cause billions of dollars in damage each year. But a lot about it remains a mystery. So storm chasing scientists are gathering clues to better understand it. Rachel Cohen with the Mountain West News.

[Rachel Cohen]

Bureau reports Dewey Kahawai was sleeping when he heard a knock on his bedroom window.

[Sponsor Announcer]

I sprang out of bed and thought, oh my gosh, somebody's trying to get into my house.

[Rachel Cohen]

Then he heard thumps on the roof and he knew a hailstorm was sweeping through Colorado's eastern plains, 50 miles north of Denver. His house was fine, but by morning his phone was blowing up with calls and texts. Kahawai runs his own company, American Pride Auto Glass.

[Sponsor Announcer]

There was people's cars that were literally destroyed. 3 or 4 inch diameter holes through the glass on their vehicles front windshields with 6, 8 hits.

[Rachel Cohen]

He estimates he alone attended to hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of damage. Ian Giamenko says hail costs can add up. He's a researcher at the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety.

[Tom Derry]

It's not as big a life safety threat as say, a storm surge or flash flooding, but it happens every single.

[Sponsor Announcer]

Year and it's costing us just tens.

[Tom Derry]

Of billions of dollars.

[Rachel Cohen]

And the costs are increasing partly because more people are moving to places with hailstorms. And researchers think climate change could mean fewer but more destructive storms. But Giamenko says there's still a lot we don't know about hail. To find answers, he's part of a huge team of researchers working on the largest study of hail in 40 years. It's called ice chip. For six weeks this summer, scientists chased hailstorms around the Great Plains and Mountain West.

[Sponsor Announcer]

There were some fantastic storms.

[Rachel Cohen]

Becky Adams Selen is the scientist leading Ice Chip. She says they flew drones into clouds and measured the hail that fell on the ground to figure out how fast.

[Sponsor Announcer]

Does a hailstone fall? How does it melt? Like again, all things that seem pretty basic but are surprisingly difficult to try to unpack.

[Rachel Cohen]

She says piecing together all this data could tell us why certain ingredients in the sky, like temperature, elevation, wind speed, produce a different recipe of hail that falls to the ground. This data could be used to give more detailed warnings and share information.

[Sponsor Announcer]

Like the hail swath's gonna be about five miles wide and it'll probably produce hail for an hour and it's gonna be blown by winds at 20 miles. An hour like that would be awesome.

[Rachel Cohen]

Giving people time to drape netting over crops and pull cars into the garage. In Greeley, Colorado, I'm Rachel Cohen for Marketplace.

[Sabri Benishore]

And in New York, I'm Sabri Benishore with the Marketplace morning Report from 8pm American Public Media.

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