When feelings don’t match the headline figures

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report: "When Feelings Don’t Match the Headline Figures"

Release Date: March 10, 2025
Host: Sabri Benishore
Guest: Gene Ludwig, Chair of the Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity, Former U.S. Controller of the Currency, Author of The Vanishing American Dream

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1. Economic Uncertainty Amid Policy Instability

The episode kicks off with a discussion on the current economic climate marked by declining markets and investor anxieties. Sabri Benishore highlights the instability in economic policies emanating from the White House, contributing to an uncertain business environment for both companies and consumers. President Donald Trump's recent comments have added to the unease, as he refrained from ruling out a potential recession.

Sabri Benishore (00:32):

"President Donald Trump this weekend did little to clear things up, declining to rule out the possibility of a recession."

2. President Trump's Stance on Recession and Economic Transition

In an interview segment, President Trump was probed about the likelihood of a recession, especially in light of layoffs, federal spending cuts, and imposed tariffs affecting the economy.

Gene Ludwig (01:12):

"I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because..."

Trump's Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessant, echoed similar sentiments, suggesting that the U.S. has become "addicted to government spending" and is now entering a "detox period." However, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick downplayed these assertions, suggesting that while foreign goods might become pricier, American goods would benefit from lower costs.

Gene Ludwig (01:57):

"Of course, foreign goods may get a little more expensive, but American goods are going to get cheaper."

Despite these assurances, economists remain skeptical. The administration's plan to impose a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports has raised concerns, with Reuters polled economists indicating increased recession risks in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.

3. Corporate Consolidation: Circle K and Seven & I Holdings

The report also touches on significant corporate moves, notably Canadian convenience store giant Alimentation Couche-Tard's plans to acquire Seven & i Holdings, the owner of 7-Eleven stores. To mitigate monopoly concerns, the companies are negotiating the sale of select convenience stores.

Sabri Benishore (02:13):

"...it plans to take over the company that owns Seven-Eleven Japanese firm Seven & I Holdings. The two are in talks to make that happen, specifically to sell certain convenience stores to avoid accusations of creating a monopoly."

4. Economic Pulse: Bridging the Gap Between Perception and Statistics

The centerpiece of the episode is the "Economic Pulse" segment, where Sabri Benishore interviews Gene Ludwig about the dissonance between how individuals perceive the economy and what official statistics indicate.

Gene Ludwig (03:48):

"People's lived experience tell us that the economy needs work. Yet, I mean, I end up reporting a lot of these. The headline economic numbers have been saying things are actually okay, maybe we should stop whining."

a. Misleading Unemployment Rates

Ludwig critiques the traditional unemployment rate metrics, pointing out their inability to capture the full spectrum of economic hardship.

Gene Ludwig (04:44):

"Some of it is we do the monthly unemployment rate. It is a crucial piece of data. But the headline one does not account for people who are so discouraged by the job market they've quit looking."

He emphasizes that the official figures fail to consider individuals working multiple part-time jobs or those who can only secure limited hours, thereby inflating employment statistics misleadingly.

Gene Ludwig (05:07):

"It doesn't account for that. If they worked one hour in the last two weeks, they're counted as being employed. It doesn't in any way suggest whether the person can earn even above a poverty wage."

Ludwig estimates that "functional unemployment" might be in the 20% range, a stark contrast to the reported figures, with particularly severe impacts on communities of color.

b. Inflation Rate Discrepancies

Similarly, Ludwig critiques the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for not accurately reflecting the inflationary pressures faced by middle and low-income Americans. While the CPI covers a broad range of goods and services, it neglects the specific expenses that disproportionately affect these demographics, such as food, housing, education, and transportation.

Gene Ludwig (05:51):

"The inflation rate is also misleading. CPI is what it's called. Consumer Price Index is a basket of 80,000 goods and services... they have inflated over the last 20 years more rapidly than the CPI. So they're worse off."

This misalignment means that for 60% of Americans, wages have either stagnated or declined over the past two decades, negating the appearance of economic growth suggested by headline statistics.

c. Moving Beyond Traditional Metrics

Acknowledging these shortcomings, Ludwig advocates for the development of more nuanced economic indicators that better capture the lived realities of Americans.

Gene Ludwig (06:40):

"We need something better."

He introduces the forthcoming Shared Economic Prosperity Index and Minimum Quality of Life Measure, designed to provide a more accurate portrayal of the middle class's economic health.

Gene Ludwig (06:55):

"We'll be coming out with over the next couple of months, a shared Economic prosperity index and a minimum quality of life measure that together will give the country a sense of how people in the middle class are doing in reality."

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5. Closing Insights

The episode concludes with reflections on the need for improved economic measurement tools to bridge the gap between statistical data and public sentiment. Gene Ludwig's insights underscore the importance of understanding economic indicators in the context of everyday experiences, advocating for metrics that genuinely reflect the prosperity and challenges of the average American.

Sabri Benishore (07:26):

"Speaking there with Marketplaces. David Brancaccio in New York, I'm Sabri Benishore with the Marketplace morning report from APM American Public Media."

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This episode of Marketplace Morning Report offers a critical examination of the current economic indicators, emphasizing the necessity for more comprehensive metrics to accurately assess and address the economic well-being of Americans. By highlighting Gene Ludwig's expertise, the report sheds light on the often-overlooked aspects of economic data that significantly impact everyday lives.

Transcript

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[Sabri Benishore]

Why statistics about the economy don't match our feelings about it From Marketplace I'm Sabri Benishore, in for David Brancaccio. Markets this morning are pointing lower as investors worry about the direction of the economy. Economic policy out of the White House has been unstable, and that has made the business environment uncertain for businesses and consumers. President Donald Trump this weekend did little to clear things up, declining to rule out the possibility of a recession. Marketplace's Nova Saffo has more on Fox.

[Nova Safo]

News this weekend, President Trump was asked whether the US Economy could be headed for a recession this year as layoffs, federal spending cuts and tariffs take a toll.

[Gene Ludwig]

I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because.

[Nova Safo]

What we're doing is very big a period of transition. Last week, Trump's Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessant, suggested something similar. The market and the economy have just become hooked and we've become addicted to this government spending, and there's going to be a detox period. It's not just about government spending, though. Markets moved sharply lower after Trump imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, nearly all economists polled by Reuters last week said recession risks have risen in all three countries. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on NBC's Meet the Press over the weekend called all of this not a transition, but will there be distortions?

[Gene Ludwig]

Of course, foreign goods may get a little more expensive, but American goods are going to get cheaper.

[Nova Safo]

Economists dispute that cheaper assertion. The administration plans to levy 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports this Wednesday. I'm NovaSafo for Marketplace.

[Sabri Benishore]

Canadian convenience store giant act owns Circle K convenience stores, among others. It plans to take over the company company that owns seven eleven Japanese firm Seven and I Holdings. The two are in talks to make that happen, specifically to sell certain convenience stores to avoid accusations of creating a monopoly.

[Gene Ludwig]

Foreign.

[Marketplace Newsletter]

If you want to be savvy about the economy, the Marketplace newsletter is just what you need. Every Friday, you'll get explainers and analysis that make sense of everything from the moving markets to grocery prices. No jargon, no hype, just smart takes delivered to your inbox. Sign up [e-mail] subscribe.

[Sabri Benishore]

Now to our series Economic Pulse, regular checkups on the economy from a range of perspectives. And today we're talking about the difference between how so many of us feel about the economy and what the official statistics say about it. Gene Ludwig is chair of the Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity and former U.S. controller of the Currency. He's also author of the Vanishing American Dream, a frank look at the economic realities facing low and middle income Americans. He joined my colleague David Brancaccio.

[Gene Ludwig]

People's lived experience tell us that the economy needs work. Yet, I mean, I end up reporting a lot of these. The headline economic numbers have been saying things are actually a okay, maybe we should stop whining. How do you resolve this great divide over numbers versus what we see with our eyes?

We started looking at this back about, oh, five, six years ago when we held a symposium to question why things felt bad for middle and low income Americans. But at the time, the headline statistics were looking pretty good. So I decided with the institute to begin to study the numbers and try to figure out why the folks at that symposium and in my own experience growing up in a small town in Pennsylvania and seeing it deteriorate, you know, why is this disconne between what these headline numbers tell us every day and what we're experiencing?

Some of it is we do the monthly unemployment rate. It is a crucial piece of data. But the headline one does not account for people who are so discouraged by the job market they've quit looking. Sometimes the payroll count that the Labor Department does. Yeah, look at all these people got jobs this month. But maybe they were working multiple jobs.

Well, all that is absolutely true, but sadly it's even worse than that. What it doesn't account for is people who have a piece of a job. They work an hour or two here and there, but they want a full time job. It doesn't account for that. If they worked one hour in the last two weeks, they're counted as being employed. It doesn't in any way suggest whether the person can earn even above a poverty wage. So unemployment, as we'd like to say it, functional unemployment, it's really in the 20s, which is horrifying. And for people of color, it's much.

Worse, many orders of magnitude higher than the headline figure that they hand me every month when the unemployment rate comes up.

That's only one of the headline statistics. That's misleading. The inflation rate is also misleading. CPI is what it's called. Consumer Price Index is a basket of 80,000 goods and services. But for middle and low income Americans, they use a relatively narrow group that mattered to them most, which is food, housing, education, transportation to work. And if you look at the basic things that they can afford to buy, they have inflated over the last 20 years more rapidly than the CPI. So they're worse off. And that is a big deal because it means that net, net their wages haven't increased over the last 20 years for 60% of America, they've actually declined or been stagnant.

I mean, I remember we used to spend a lot of time when I was a kid focused on the misery index to gauge people's wellbeing. But see, that was built on the faulty unemployment number that you were talking about. It was. I think unemployment rate plus inflation equals misery. We need something better.

I guess we do indeed. And we'll be coming out with over the next couple of months, a shared Economic prosperity index and a minimum quality of life measure that together will give the country a sense of how people in the middle class are doing in reality.

Eugene Ludwig is founder of the Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic prosperity and was US controller of the currency in the early to late 90s. Gene, thank you very much.

It's nice to be with you.

[Sabri Benishore]

Speaking there with Marketplaces. David Brancaccio in New York, I'm Sabri Benishore with the Marketplace morning report from APM American Public Media.

[Janelie Espinal]

Consumer confidence had its sharpest monthly decline since 2021, which means we're all in our feels about money. And while uncertainty is the only constant these days, it's also a great reason to get serious about understanding personal finance. I'm Janelie Espinal, host of Financially Inclined, a podcast from Marketplace that makes learning about money simple. Learn about practical skills like negotiating job offers, dealing with money and friendship and love, entrepreneurship and student loans. Get serious about your money and build a life you've always dreamed of. Listen to Financially Inclined wherever you get your podcasts.